Previous Ammo shortage vs present.

[The Heretic]

Visit the sites talking about investments and they are saying inflation is here already and is going to get worse. Cost of living is going up so that affects the cost of ammo. Ammo isn't a must have so the demand will drop as food and fuel prices rise.

I wish I could show you the chart on prices just in the last six months, let me try to get numbers and I will edit them in.

Prices will also drop because some hoarders like me more or less have what we need, and then some - so we drop out of the market until such time as prices return to "normal" and even then only buy when there are good deals/sales - which is pretty much what I did even before the panic (I got some good deals on 5.7x28 back in 2015, and some good deals on bulk PD tradein SD pistol ammo - like 30-40¢ per round for HST/SXT .40 ammo).

Once demand drops below supply, prices will decrease until it equalizes - retailers cannot afford to have inventory just sit there on the shelf for any real length of time, and distributors/manufacturers can't either (have it sit in warehouses).

 

[shockd]

To address the OP's original question... Sandy Hook was but a blip in time in regard to ammo availability and pricing. Lasting only a few months and "normalized" to pre incident levels easily within the year that followed. The 2016 election... that recovery spanned much more slowly over a three year period, but the end result landed us in with near 2007-2009 level pricing. Availability was a little more of an issue but I think (IMHO) we saw a great insurgence of profiteers at levels never seen before.

I'm not generally a "glass half empty" type person.. but in my possibly ignorant perspective... and as a previous poster hinted at... I think we've entered into the "perfect storm" where it's not likely we will ever enjoy the free availability or anywhere near the pre 2020 price points.

By that I mean the multi facet conditions we now face all hitting in concession. Domestic political changes, unprecedented presidential pressure on congress for stricter gun laws (we all know that crap will be rolling down hill to the local levels), COVID, depressed economies throughout the world and growing international tensions (China, et al.).

For our domestic manufacturers, they are facing worker shortages, having to pay more in wages while their supporting industries (raw materials and component providers [primers and gunpowder for example]) suffer many of the same conditions that create a bit of a domino affect up the supply chain. One simple example of that would be the U.S. tariff increase from 10% to 25% for some countries (unnamed) for imports of some of the raw materials our manufacturers require for production (ie., copper, zinc, etc etc). That is of course more related to growing international tensions than anything within the control of our domestic mfg. production lines. It all acts to drive up base prices though no matter how long shorter term catalysts might "typically" affect us.

Now toss into the mix the FLOOD of new gun owners in the last year driving up even higher short term demand... profiteering through the roof...

All in all, it's not looking too good. I guess, as the previous poster said, you also have to assume that there will be no "new" catalysts in the near future if you want to start talking "normalization".

My nutshell: While availability is likely to marginally "normalize"... very slowly... over the next couple of years, I don't think it will ever be as plentiful as in the past any time in the foreseeable future. Prices? They may decrease by a factor, but long gone are the 5.56 .25-.30/rnd of 2019.

I AM confident though that conditions will improve within a 2 year window and plan on sticking on an ammo diet and riding it out without feeling the need to buy up anything and everything I can "now". For those that will say, "buy it now or you won't be able to later"... I respectfully disagree.

What I "will" be doing, in addition, is adding to my "rainy day ammo fund" each month while I wait. When the time is right... I'll blow it all in one pop and be ready to ride out the next wave of barren ammos shelves. Over the decades... that strategy has always worked for me... so far.

[Off my soap box]

Thank you for your thorough response, highly explanatory. Because of my age I only felt the palpable effects of 1 ammo shortage so I lacked the prudence to stock up. Leaving me completely dry. I remember when I shot my last few rounds of .22 and it was SAD!!! hahaah, so when it gets back to some normal, I plan on buying regularly. Obviously I still have defense rounds for my weapons, but plinking is not in my near future.

 

[shockd]

Of course. Stuff happens. And it also depends on the response to the events, both by the public and politicians. We've all noticed that sometimes the response to some events is "meh" and that is the risk the MSM and pols have when they have too many events - the public becomes accustomed to the events and the impact is mitigated.

Well put!!

 

[shockd]

Prices will also drop because some hoarders like me more or less have what we need, and then some - so we drop out of the market until such time as prices return to "normal" and even then only buy when there are good deals/sales - which is pretty much what I did even before the panic (I got some good deals on 5.7x28 back in 2015, and some good deals on bulk PD tradein SD pistol ammo - like 30-40¢ per round for HST/SXT .40 ammo).

Once demand drops below supply, prices will decrease until it equalizes - retailers cannot afford to have inventory just sit there on the shelf for any real length of time, and distributors/manufacturers can't either (have it sit in warehouses).

Yep, I was thinking the people who spend the astronomical figures for what's presently available won't continue to do so for much longer.

 

[The Heretic]

What I "will" be doing, in addition, is adding to my "rainy day ammo fund" each month while I wait. When the time is right... I'll blow it all in one pop and be ready to ride out the next wave of barren ammos shelves. Over the decades... that strategy has always worked for me... so far.

That segues into another variable; credit. A LOT of people buy such supplies on credit - especially during panics - which adds to the cost because people who do that generally wind up paying interest. I've seen this go in cycles again and again with preppers, especially new preppers - same applies to gun owners, especially new gun owners who have not been down this road before. Also applies to speculators who buy and then try to sell at a profit.

These people will need to pay their CC bills. Speculators will want to sell before they can no longer make a profit and fear selling at a loss.

This will drive the prices down on the secondary market (private sales) - where I get a LOT of my ammo and other items.

 

[Longwalkhome]

Prices will also drop because some hoarders like me more or less have what we need, and then some - so we drop out of the market until such time as prices return to "normal" and even then only buy when there are good deals/sales - which is pretty much what I did even before the panic (I got some good deals on 5.7x28 back in 2015, and some good deals on bulk PD tradein SD pistol ammo - like 30-40¢ per round for HST/SXT .40 ammo).

Once demand drops below supply, prices will decrease until it equalizes - retailers cannot afford to have inventory just sit there on the shelf for any real length of time, and distributors/manufacturers can't either (have it sit in warehouses).

I agree with you. Its like 357 magnums probably won't be in supply because the demand wasn't great when you could buy them and factory 357 was expensive anyway. I think folks will drift to what's always been on the shelves and calibers in less demand will be a long long time in comming back.

 

[The Heretic]

I agree with you. Its like 357 magnums probably won't be in supply because the demand wasn't great when you could buy them and factory 357 was expensive anyway. I think folks will drift to what's always been on the shelves and calibers in less demand will be a long long time in comming back.

My inventory only has a few low points - 9x19 (I really goofed on that, I should have grabbed a lot more pre-panic) but my surplus of .40 makes up for that - kind of.

I need some higher quality 7.62x39 (again, I once had the chance to get more Hornady SST in steel cases for 50¢ per round and didn't) - right now I only have 1K rounds of Hornady and the rest (5-6K+) is Russian & Czech bimetal HP, SP and some ball.

I could use more .308/7.62x51 but that is not my first line of defense rifle, and I am comfortable with what I have for now.

The non-defense firearms (.357, .44, .30-30, .45-70, etc.) I have plenty of - in some way more than I will ever need (who shoots 800 rounds of premium .44 mag JHP? or several hundred rounds of .460 mag? Not me).

I need to spend more $ on optics and other firearm accessories/modifications and stop buying ammo that I do not really need more of. So I can and will wait it out (famous last words that last until someone is selling defensive ammo for 50¢ per round).

 

[Dinglenutz]

does anyone remember when it was obvious it was over?

Shortly after people holding it started complaining about not being able to sell it "for what it's worth".

 

[Longwalkhome]

My inventory only has a few low points - 9x19 (I really goofed on that, I should have grabbed a lot more pre-panic) but my surplus of .40 makes up for that - kind of.

I need some higher quality 7.62x39 (again, I once had the chance to get more Hornady SST in steel cases for 50¢ per round and didn't) - right now I only have 1K rounds of Hornady and the rest (5-6K+) is Russian & Czech bimetal HP, SP and some ball.

I could use more .308/7.62x51 but that is not my first line of defense rifle, and I am comfortable with what I have for now.

The non-defense firearms (.357, .44, .30-30, .45-70, etc.) I have plenty of - in some way more than I will ever need (who shoots 800 rounds of premium .44 mag JHP? or several hundred rounds of .460 mag? Not me).

I need to spend more $ on optics and other firearm accessories/modifications and stop buying ammo that I do not really need more of. So I can and will wait it out (famous last words that last until someone is selling defensive ammo for 50¢ per round).

I am really old and an active shooter. When a previous administration created a shortage i got caught with not enough components to load. I buy very little factory ammo.

This old dog did learn to not get caught by the short hairs again and this panic I saw comming before the shelves emptied. I love shooting the 44 special in my cowboy guns so as this panic started I had 500 cases sent from Starline Brass. Lead is still easy to find and I had primers.

Same with 357, I shoot it and load my own plus I bought just before this panic. Covid got announced and being an old man thats got history I got ready before most. I won't be denied the pleasure of going to the gun club and shooting my guns.

Hopefully people see whats comming with inflation.

 

[The Heretic]

Shortly after people holding it started complaining about not being able to sell it "for what it's worth".

No lowballing - I know what I got.

I don't bother to "lowball" haggle with people. If they are asking more than I am willing to pay, then I move on and look for better deals. What somewhat fascinates me is the variance in prices that people are asking - I see one person asking $1 per round for ball ammo, and another asking half that for defensive ammo in the same caliber. Guess which one I am going to buy?

 

[The Heretic]

I am really old and an active shooter. When a previous administration created a shortage i got caught with not enough components to load. I buy very little factory ammo.

This old dog did learn to not get caught by the short hairs again and this panic I saw comming before the shelves emptied. I love shooting the 44 special in my cowboy guns so as this panic started I had 500 cases sent from Starline Brass. Lead is still easy to find and I had primers.

Same with 357, I shoot it and load my own plus I bought just before this panic. Covid got announced and being an old man thats got history I got ready before most. I won't be denied the pleasure of going to the gun club and shooting my guns.

Hopefully people see whats comming with inflation.

Before I bought two lever action carbines in .44 (a Rossi 92 and then a Win 92), the only gun I had in .44 mag was a 329 PD, which is no fun to shoot with any kind of .44 ammo, no matter how light the load - if it exits the barrel, it stings your hand to shoot it - if it is my 300 gr bear loads, it draws blood or at leave a bruise and my hand is numb for 10 minutes. The main reason I have it is because I hardly notice the weight when carrying it, which means I will carry it instead of my .460 mag which weighs twice as much but is not bad to shoot at all (it has a comp too).

I am the opposite - at least before I retired; I only reload what I can't buy - e.g., really light subsonic rifle loads (and those are becoming more available).

 

[Longwalkhome]

Before I bought two lever action carbines in .44 (a Rossi 92 and then a Win 92), the only gun I had in .44 mag was a 329 PD, which is no fun to shoot with any kind of .44 ammo, no matter how light the load - if it exits the barrel, it stings your hand to shoot it - if it is my 300 gr bear loads, it draws blood or at leave a bruise and my hand is numb for 10 minutes. The main reason I have it is because I hardly notice the weight when carrying it, which means I will carry it instead of my .460 mag which weighs twice as much but is not bad to shoot at all (it has a comp too).

I am the opposite - at least before I retired; I only reload what I can't buy - e.g., really light subsonic rifle loads (and those are becoming more available).

I prefure choosing my own load over off the shelf ammo, its part of the fun I have shooting. Its about fun to me.

 

[wingman33]

The industry predictions for normalization are based on no new negative events.

Well that's why the dems are now talking about the INVASION! If left unchecked they will make sure those new negative events keep rolling out every 6 months or so.

 

[1371JarHead]

Yup, for the first time I have seen 7.62 x 54r drop in price to around .54 cents a round for steel case and 68/70 cents for brass case, and there seems to be a lot of it.I have seen .243 win at 1.25 per round for good hunting ammo, a few months back there was not even any around, 7mm rem mag is everywhere again, still pretty high but do-able for sure..6.5 Grendel still seems to be the holy grail for me..still way to much to shoot at the range.

 

[asilcot]

Last time I knew there was light at the end of the tunnel when:

1) Primers came back in stock followed closely by a glut. Distributors offered free Hazmat, and manufacturers offered rebates on primers. This means that ammo makers were getting caught up and components were returning to the secondary market.

2) 22 ammo started coming back in stock at the distributors and when you went to a website to check price and inventory, then clicked to close the window you got a popup asking why you did not complete your order.

 

[Longwalkhome]

Another event that will play a huge part in ammo comming back is commodities prices. Copper is sky high.

China is no longer center of commodities pricing: Goldman Sachs - ET Auto

China: The market is beginning to reflect this, as copper prices are increasingly driven by Western manufacturing data rather their Chinese counterparts, it said.

auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[Ura-Ki]

I remember the first hit in 94, that was mostly firearms, but ammo did spike for a couple of years, then normalized, so I bought up what I thought was a reasonable stash. Lesson 1 was what I thought was enough wasn't!
Then Obummer came to power and things spiralled out of control, it was a slow but steady slide, but once it hit rifle ammo, it went to hell almost over night. I had to stop shooting every weekend. Sandy Hook wasn't really that much bigger, again, it hit Firearms more then ammo, and for the first time, magazines became hard to come buy and the prices went through the roof. After 2016, things started back down to some what normalcy, albet with some elevated prices, mostly .22 rimfire, and I don't expect to see it ever return to normal. Then 2020 hit, I saw the beginnings and jumped head first with cash flying in every which way I could, it just "Felt different" this time around, I think it was how fast 5.56/.223 flew off the shelves, along with hunting calibers one wouldn't normally need to worry about that told me I better grab a truck load ( literally) of everything I might need and run like hell! I didn't get caught out wanting ( except 10mm auto) but have enough brass and components to see me though several years if I don't shoot much.

.22 rimfire is really the bench mark, as always, when it's prices drop and availability returns, you know things are getting back to normal. When you see the ammo sales leading up to hunting season, it's a good time to buy again! This last season there wasn't much to be had, even in the less common loadings like .300 Holland & Holland, or .375, that was telling to me!

 

[TTSX]

I don't remember when, just that it seemed like suddenly "poof" the ammo shelves are full and cheap. Then just as suddenly, "poof" they're empty and expensive. I do remember having no trouble finding ammo from 09-11 but even when the SH shooting happened there was ammo to be had and while prices were high, they weren't ridiculous. Seems like every shortage is worse than the last and better than the next. Just watch what happens if NP or KH actually ascend to the golden throne. Hope you like $1/Rd .22

 

[aflineman]

Why was the .22 the largest hit then? Thanks for the input

Because it can't be reloaded easily. Pretty much everything else can be reloaded on the bench at home with (then) readily available materials.

 

[Yarome]

Because of my age I only felt the palpable effects of 1 ammo shortage so I lacked the prudence to stock up. .....I plan on buying regularly.

Like anything... conditions never remain the same. With any major "incident", major controversial law, changing of the guard in the big white dog house... the cycle consistently repeats itself.

Just one man's suggestions, but instead of buying "regularly" to gradually develop what you feel are adequate reserves, you might consider saving monthly and holding out. Registering with the mfg's you can be notified of rebate offers. Buying bulk, during a better than average sale and coupled with a mfg's rebate can greatly reduce your costs.

A friend of mine had a clever strategy. He had a "pay as you go" plan. If he shot 200rnds he would set aside double the amount of money he just threw down range to replace and increase his on hand ammo.

That might not work for everyone, but you get the idea. Having a goal and personal plan to achieve it is half the battle.