Previous Ammo shortage vs present.

[shockd]

Hi all,

Does anyone recall around what juncture ammo became available and priced according to some market baseline during the shortage following sandy hook in '12-'13? I recall not being able to find ammo during most of 2014, but does anyone remember when it was obvious it was over?
Not that those events can at all predict a current ammo stabilization, but I have been seeing ammo like the .22 cartridge much more available and dropping in price lately.

If we have any prophets out there who care to forecast a little, I am glad to hear it. I googled this stuff, but it's all the same nonsense about vista outdoors.

Anyway, tia for your time.

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[Longwalkhome]

In my opinion its very hard to foretell the future because of the politics involved. Things can change in a heartbeat.

I will give you a watchdog so you can see the trend of prices and availability. Click on

https://www.luckygunner.com/rimfire/22-lr-ammo


check out what they have and its price today.

22lr has dropped about 4 cents a round in two weeks and the cost trend is easing down.

 

[shockd]

Thank you for this!

 

[CHLChris]

This time around the shortage was/is much more profound. Back in 2013 the 22 seemed to be the hardest hit, then 9mm. And all of the less popular rounds seemed to stick around. You could get 40 and 357sig and all the rifle ammo.

This time, the 9 and 223 disappeared so hard that the less popular stuff also went in the panic. And now, every manufacturer is trying to spin up 9 and 223 and ignoring the other stuff. I'm generalizing here, but it's a pretty good view of why this has been so much worse. There is just nothing around and anything but 9 and 223 will be a long time in coming back.

All of the 22 machinery can't be used for anything else, really, so it is seeming to come back okay.

 

[quneur]

Last panic was due to the possibly of gun bans which brought out the profiteers. Now with this Wuhan flu + riots + election, the profiteers are arming themselves. This panic was more severe than the last. Reloading components and equipment were available last time but not now. So, my prediction is we will start seeing ammo on the selves late this year and atleast another 6 months after that to get to normalcy.

 

[billdeserthills]

This panic is the first time I have seen people selling broken boxes/ individual cartridges. People are truly hard up for ammo

 

[Longwalkhome]

If what the big investors are saying is true then our lives are going to be full of shortages in the future. All due to politics.

 

[wollzy]

I imagine this shortage being worse and longer due to multiple events. It call got kicked off by covid panic buying which would have lasted quite some time, then we had riots, then we had an election, and then we got threat of some heavy handed gun control. I keep hearing from the LGS and a few people that late fall early winter things should start to normalize a bit, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes on until next year. People are currently buying everything that hits the shelf everytime they see it. It will take some time for people to feel comfortable that there will be ammo on the shelves when they need it. I cant count the number of new youtube videos I've seen on how to make your own primers so this one is pretty rough.

 

[RVTECH]

Reloading components and equipment were available last time but not now.

No one seems to remember 2008 (or were not 'affiliated' at the time) but reloading components dried up then and were absent for a long time as well.

I was caught off guard and was scrambling for what I could get at the time. It drug on for a couple years and started to slowly come back - THEN Sandy Hook happened and components and ammo disappeared again - but I had stocked up by then and was not affected so much.

Heck I remember some minor shortages during the '94 AWB, and even back as far back when Carter was prez!

 

[aflineman]

Add to this time a large ammo manufacturer going bankrupt, and it gets much worse. Plus many manufacturers spent a lot of money to spin up last time, and the bottom dropped out of the market. Kinda makes them gun shy to do the same thing this time around. I found it interesting that EVERYTHING disappeared off the shelves this time. Even 12 ga. The only consistent thing I saw on shelves was 28ga and 24ga. I find it interestin that hunting rounds have not returned. I think it shows that demand for hunting rounds is far less than plinking rounds. Which does make perfect sense, just show a bit more as to what drives the industry. (Even though taxes on ammo does not go really to the hobby, it goes to wildlife conservation).
I don't really see stuff coming back until maybe next year sometime. It will be interesting when fall hunting seasons roll around and again there is no ammo on the shelves.

 

[wollzy]

Add to this time a large ammo manufacturer going bankrupt, and it gets much worse. Plus many manufacturers spent a lot of money to spin up last time, and the bottom dropped out of the market. Kinda makes them gun shy to do the same thing this time around. I found it interesting that EVERYTHING disappeared off the shelves this time. Even 12 ga. The only consistent thing I saw on shelves was 28ga and 24ga. I find it interestin that hunting rounds have not returned. I think it shows that demand for hunting rounds is far less than plinking rounds. Which does make perfect sense, just show a bit more as to what drives the industry. (Even though taxes on ammo does not go really to the hobby, it goes to wildlife conservation).
I don't really see stuff coming back until maybe next year sometime. It will be interesting when fall hunting seasons roll around and again there is no ammo on the shelves.

Yea at the start of the pandemic I heard the same thing about manufacturers being hesistant to invest in production after the bottom fell out post Sandy Hook. I'm sure they are just enjoying their no risk increased profits due to demand

 

[SUPER X]

Hi all,

Does anyone recall around what juncture ammo became available and priced according to some market baseline during the shortage following sandy hook in '12-'13? I recall not being able to find ammo during most of 2014, but does anyone remember when it was obvious it was over?
Not that those events can at all predict a current ammo stabilization, but I have been seeing ammo like the .22 cartridge much more available and dropping in price lately.

If we have any prophets out there who care to forecast a little, I am glad to hear it. I googled this stuff, but it's all the same nonsense about vista outdoors.

Anyway, tia for your time.

WHEN TRUMP WAS ELECTED

 

[JuglansRegia]

The industry predictions for normalization are based on no new negative events.

 

[MBJ]

Hi all,

Does anyone recall around what juncture ammo became available and priced according to some market baseline during the shortage following sandy hook in '12-'13? I recall not being able to find ammo during most of 2014, but does anyone remember when it was obvious it was over?
Not that those events can at all predict a current ammo stabilization, but I have been seeing ammo like the .22 cartridge much more available and dropping in price lately.

If we have any prophets out there who care to forecast a little, I am glad to hear it. I googled this stuff, but it's all the same nonsense about vista outdoors.

Anyway, tia for your time.

Remington Ammunition is producing once again, 168 hrs a week, the panic seems to have waned as prices on Gun Broker are going down and it looks like you'll see a lot of variations of hunting rounds coming out in late June and early July.

 

[Yarome]

To address the OP's original question... Sandy Hook was but a blip in time in regard to ammo availability and pricing. Lasting only a few months and "normalized" to pre incident levels easily within the year that followed. The 2016 election... that recovery spanned much more slowly over a three year period, but the end result landed us in with near 2007-2009 level pricing. Availability was a little more of an issue but I think (IMHO) we saw a great insurgence of profiteers at levels never seen before.

I'm not generally a "glass half empty" type person.. but in my possibly ignorant perspective... and as a previous poster hinted at... I think we've entered into the "perfect storm" where it's not likely we will ever enjoy the free availability or anywhere near the pre 2020 price points.

By that I mean the multi facet conditions we now face all hitting in concession. Domestic political changes, unprecedented presidential pressure on congress for stricter gun laws (we all know that crap will be rolling down hill to the local levels), COVID, depressed economies throughout the world and growing international tensions (China, et al.).

For our domestic manufacturers, they are facing worker shortages, having to pay more in wages while their supporting industries (raw materials and component providers [primers and gunpowder for example]) suffer many of the same conditions that create a bit of a domino affect up the supply chain. One simple example of that would be the U.S. tariff increase from 10% to 25% for some countries (unnamed) for imports of some of the raw materials our manufacturers require for production (ie., copper, zinc, etc etc). That is of course more related to growing international tensions than anything within the control of our domestic mfg. production lines. It all acts to drive up base prices though no matter how long shorter term catalysts might "typically" affect us.

Now toss into the mix the FLOOD of new gun owners in the last year driving up even higher short term demand... profiteering through the roof...

All in all, it's not looking too good. I guess, as the previous poster said, you also have to assume that there will be no "new" catalysts in the near future if you want to start talking "normalization".

My nutshell: While availability is likely to marginally "normalize"... very slowly... over the next couple of years, I don't think it will ever be as plentiful as in the past any time in the foreseeable future. Prices? They may decrease by a factor, but long gone are the 5.56 .25-.30/rnd of 2019.

I AM confident though that conditions will improve within a 2 year window and plan on sticking on an ammo diet and riding it out without feeling the need to buy up anything and everything I can "now". For those that will say, "buy it now or you won't be able to later"... I respectfully disagree.

What I "will" be doing, in addition, is adding to my "rainy day ammo fund" each month while I wait. When the time is right... I'll blow it all in one pop and be ready to ride out the next wave of barren ammos shelves. Over the decades... that strategy has always worked for me... so far.

[Off my soap box]

 

[shockd]

This time around the shortage was/is much more profound. Back in 2013 the 22 seemed to be the hardest hit, then 9mm. And all of the less popular rounds seemed to stick around. You could get 40 and 357sig and all the rifle ammo.

This time, the 9 and 223 disappeared so hard that the less popular stuff also went in the panic. And now, every manufacturer is trying to spin up 9 and 223 and ignoring the other stuff. I'm generalizing here, but it's a pretty good view of why this has been so much worse. There is just nothing around and anything but 9 and 223 will be a long time in coming back.

All of the 22 machinery can't be used for anything else, really, so it is seeming to come back okay.

Why was the .22 the largest hit then? Thanks for the input

 

[shockd]

If what the big investors are saying is true then our lives are going to be full of shortages in the future. All due to politics.

Mind elaborating a bit?

 

[The Heretic]

The industry predictions for normalization are based on no new negative events.

Of course. Stuff happens. And it also depends on the response to the events, both by the public and politicians. We've all noticed that sometimes the response to some events is "meh" and that is the risk the MSM and pols have when they have too many events - the public becomes accustomed to the events and the impact is mitigated.

 

[Longwalkhome]

Mind elaborating a bit?

Visit the sites talking about investments and they are saying inflation is here already and is going to get worse. Cost of living is going up so that affects the cost of ammo. Ammo isn't a must have so the demand will drop as food and fuel prices rise.

I wish I could show you the chart on prices just in the last six months, let me try to get numbers and I will edit them in.

Looks like I can't copy and paste as they won't let me.

I will post a few numbers relevant i guess.

A bushel of corn has gone from $3.43 to$6.86
A gallon of gas went from $1.95 to $3.05
Lumber has gone from $ 305 a thousand board feet to $1500

Now it just what I read so thats not factual numbers I can prove but all of those increases will affect inflation and ammo prices. Imho

 

[shockd]

Remington Ammunition is producing once again, 168 hrs a week, the panic seems to have waned as prices on Gun Broker are going down and it looks like you'll see a lot of variations of hunting rounds coming out in late June and early July.

Ya, it seemed remingtons troubles added to this issue. Glad to learn they are in full production again.

Remington Ammunition is producing once again, 168 hrs a week, the panic seems to have waned as prices on Gun Broker are going down and it looks like you'll see a lot of variations of hunting rounds coming out in late June and early J