Powders return to shelf’s can we afford it?

[American123]

Gone are the days of $45 and under for primers at sportsmans. As of the 11th primers jumped up $2-5 a sleeve and $20-50 per brick.

People stop buying them at that price and it will come down. Problem is the people who still buy during the panics. Makes it last that much longer.

I do this same experiment with kids in a classroom. Take 20 cupcakes and 30 kids, let them bid on a cupcake with class currency they earn throughout the week for doing their work well. The first few cupcakes might be bought for relatively cheap because the panic hasn't started. When the kids realize that there are not enough cupcakes for everyone they start to bid really high. Some kid inevitably says to the class "if we don't bid the price will be really low," so they try to encourage others not to bid it up, but the other kids don't care because they want their cupcake and there isn't a guarantee they will get it if they don't bid it up.

I haven't bought primers or powder since things got crazy, and I don't plan too. The prices will grow as inflation continues to reduce the buying power of the dollar, but the cost of ammo currently is more about panic buying and demand compared to supply, than anything else.

 

[TTSX]

People stop buying them at that price and it will come down. Problem is the people who still buy during the panics. Makes it last that much longer.

I do this same experiment with kids in a classroom. Take 20 cupcakes and 30 kids, let them bid on a cupcake with class currency they earn throughout the week for doing their work well. The first few cupcakes might be bought for relatively cheap because the panic hasn't started. When the kids realize that there are not enough cupcakes for everyone they start to bid really high. Some kid inevitably says to the class "if we don't bid the price will be really low," so they try to encourage others not to bid it up, but the other kids don't care because they want their cupcake and there isn't a guarantee they will get it if they don't bid it up.

I haven't bought primers or powder since things got crazy, and I don't plan too. The prices will grow as inflation continues to reduce the buying power of the dollar, but the cost of ammo currently is more about panic buying and demand compared to supply, than anything else.

Yeah well, I want my GD cupcake

 

[American123]

Yeah well, I want my GD cupcake

And I respect that! I fully support free market capitalism.

 

[Mikej]

People stop buying them at that price and it will come down. Problem is the people who still buy during the panics. Makes it last that much longer.

I do this same experiment with kids in a classroom. Take 20 cupcakes and 30 kids, let them bid on a cupcake with class currency they earn throughout the week for doing their work well. The first few cupcakes might be bought for relatively cheap because the panic hasn't started. When the kids realize that there are not enough cupcakes for everyone they start to bid really high. Some kid inevitably says to the class "if we don't bid the price will be really low," so they try to encourage others not to bid it up, but the other kids don't care because they want their cupcake and there isn't a guarantee they will get it if they don't bid it up.

I haven't bought primers or powder since things got crazy, and I don't plan too. The prices will grow as inflation continues to reduce the buying power of the dollar, but the cost of ammo currently is more about panic buying and demand compared to supply, than anything else.

Yeah, well. I've never been fond of sweet crap like cup cakes anyway. So there!
good thing it wasn't potato chips

 

[Local Loader]

I use beef jerky for those lessons.

 

[Defense Minister]

Yes, but...
Sometimes ammo is not just in support of a hobby, sometimes it is a true need. I'm thinking for hunters. For those who have plenty of ammo stockpiled, may I suggest that you show some generosity with your friends/neighbors when a true need arises. This past season I provided a box of 6.5 PRC ELD-X 143 grain to an Eastern Oregon friend who got stuck with no ammo during deer season. He didn't ask for it, but when I learned of his need I gave it to him. I refused his offer of payment, he was a friend (I didn't refuse the subsequent backstrap that came my way!). I could have been a typical sh!thead and told him it was his own fault that he got stuck short with no ammo for a boutique caliber, etc., but I chose a different pathway.

It was good of you to help your friend, but for the vast majority of us hunting is also a hobby. If a hunter is successful during the season (a big IF in much of Oregon), he only needs one round per successful hunt. If your friend has 3 successful hunts in a year with that rifle (unusual), the ammo you generously provided will last him 7 years...

 

[Defense Minister]

I guess since some of you guys aren't willing to pay the 50 or 60 per lb today prices there should be more for guys like me. Except that the pricing isn't scaring anyone away.

That's because fear and panic are the best tactics for selling which have ever discovered and used. More people BY FAR can be manipulated and controlled by those emotions than by any other means.

Look what the media did with CoViD. And you think these survival blogs discuss things that scare people and then "accidentally" have ads for things which can help people survive the thing that is scary, while taking a percentage every time someone clicks?

I'm not buying into the ammo/components panic. I'm sitting this one out and have diverted all my shooting money and time into other things that will be more valuable to my preparedness than more ammo, and which are still priced fairly, like the solar generator shown in post #1088 here.

 

[oneshotkyle]

That's because fear and panic are the best tactics for selling which have ever discovered and used. More people BY FAR can be manipulated and controlled by those emotions than by any other means.

Look what the media did with CoViD. And you think these survival blogs discuss things that scare people and then "accidentally" have ads for things which can help people survive the thing that is scary, while taking a percentage every time someone clicks?

Eventime another lib goes in fear and panic. Lol. What about inflation on top of it all. Heck starter homes are 400k and the median home sale is 700k in my neck of the woods too. And the market is still selling everything that gets listed. I see no price lowering in the next 3 or 4 years. It's gonna take another crash to straighten sh!t up

 

[Local Loader]

Eventime another lib goes in fear and panic. Lol. What about inflation on top of it all. Heck starter homes are 400k and the median home sale is 700k in my neck of the woods too. And the market is still selling everything that gets listed. I see no price lowering in the next 3 or 4 years. It's gonna take another crash to straighten sh!t up

Here's hoping not, cause the only thing that would likely drop is housing cost mostly and only a little bit for everything else. Same as what happen last time the market crashed.

 

[arakboss]

Here's hoping not, cause the only thing that would likely drop is housing cost mostly and only a little bit for everything else. Same as what happen last time the market crashed.

Auto prices could come down too, if supply chain issues get corrected.

 

[arakboss]

For those who are going to wait before buying more powder and primers, what prices will trigger you to buy again?

 

[American123]

For those who are going to wait before buying more powder and primers, what prices will trigger you to buy again?

I'm not "that old" compared to some people around here with more experience at this, but even in my time as a reloader I've this wave cycle happen a few times. Things are more exacerbated by covid and the government response/perversion of science to suit political goals, and of course now the conflict in Ukraine, but during times of relative stability ammo, guns, and reloading components all dip in price.

Since I have "many" components because I only buy in bulk, I could wait multiple years to resupply. I'd like a brick of primers to get back to below $30, but because of inflation that may not happen. Regardless, I'll wait till a period of stability and not in election panic prices to resupply in years to come. If things get so bad I won't be able to resupply at "stable" prices in multiple years to come then chances are I'll be using "my minimum ammo at all times" stash and buying components again won't really be a concern.

 

[oneshotkyle]

I remember 1 week before the Newtown shooting 2012, I bough 4 bricks of Federal 22lr for 7.99 per brick. I'm still waiting for the prices to dip down

 

[WillametteWill]

Oh, and since some wise guy is gonna say "Well then, let's all stop buying gas, groceries, lumber, etc., let me point out that those are commodities, and none of us truly needs ammo any more than Californians need a home elsewhere. It's a hobby, and currently a very expensive one!

I think the term "need" depends on the person. If a family has made a commitment that training in a perishable skill of defensive firearm use is part of their lifestyle then there is a certain level of "need" for ammunition for their training and preps. This can be modified to reduce the quantity need through other forms of training (i.e., dry fire, low round count drills, etc.). In today's world, believe this argument can be made.

As for Californians "needing" to leave...trust me...some do! They just need to be like, minded and vote like the people where they are moving to. Do they increase prices where they go? Certainly. But guess what, until recently the opposite was that case as for nearly 100 years of everyone wanting to live in Cali, driving their home prices up but nobody seemed to care when this was happening.

 

[2506]

What's the reason?

Supply and demand.
Where's the Retumbo, H1000, or RL-19 to 25?

 

[Local Loader]

Supply and demand.
Where's the Retumbo, H1000, or RL-19 to 25?

I've seen Retumbo as early as yesterday, 8lb jug of it sitting on the shelves.

 

[Local Loader]

VICTORY!!!! Sportsman's has gotten in trouble for there outrageous prices on goods. I checked today and powder prices have dropped to match more closely with current market costs. Still more expensive than most but no longer $15 to $240 difference over market anymore.

 

[Mikej]

VICTORY!!!! Sportsman's has gotten in trouble for there outrageous prices on goods. I checked today and powder prices have dropped to match more closely with current market costs. Still more expensive than most but no longer $15 to $240 difference over market anymore.

I didn't even look at the price of the three jugs of 50-BMG when I was in there. 2 lbs and an 8 lber. I was blown away at the thought of a 750-800-900 gr bullet and 248 grains of powder/per!

 

[VanceInWA]

VICTORY!!!! Sportsman's has gotten in trouble for there outrageous prices on goods. I checked today and powder prices have dropped to match more closely with current market costs. Still more expensive than most but no longer $15 to $240 difference over market anymore.

About time. Probably gives NWFA undue credit, but I do wonder if the way NWFA members called Sportsman's stupid pricing on the carpet contributed, at least in part, to bringing them back to reality.

 

[P7M13]

I'm set for a while unless prices come back to $25 - $32 / lb.
At this price, he!! no.