It is as bad as I have seen it for ammo and reloading components

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Hello everyone, economics major here who ended up as an advisor in the manufacturer/production sector helping companies fine tune their BS. I've been putting some thought into this ammo dilemma and have boiled it down pretty well IMO. Essentially there's a combination of causes to all this, first one being that there's a literal crap ton of new gun owners who suddenly need ammo, second compounding issue is the impulse buying from existing gun owners. The aforementioned cause will sort itself out by the production sector growing to meet demand. However that second cause, the panic buying, is basically a wildcard that makes predicting the future market direct very difficult. This isn't like the housing market where if the demand falls suddenly there's so many houses on the market that you can buy them dirt cheap. Ammo and houses are different in that each of us consumers has a continuous need for more ammo, so even if the folks who have a lot of ammo end up selling it back on the market it still won't reach dirt cheap levels, it will just be on the market. Realistically for prices to come down in a meaningful way there would have to be so much on the market for long enough to make manufacturers and retailers reconsider price levels. Sadly, this doesn't seem likely, and I think the days of paying sub .50cpr for most calibers may be over. Reloading is apparently the future. Primer makers will increase production capabilities to cover the needs of the reloaders again eventually, they won't just let an area of business die.
 
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Camelfilter

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Hello everyone, economics major here who ended up as an advisor in the manufacturer/production sector helping companies fine tune their BS. I've been putting some thought into this ammo dilemma and have boiled it down pretty well IMO. Essentially there's a combination of causes to all this, first one being that there's a literal crap ton of new gun owners who suddenly need ammo, second compounding issue is the impulse buying from existing gun owners. The aforementioned cause will sort itself out by the production sector growing to meet demand. However that second cause, the panic buying, is basically a wildcard that makes predicting the future market direct very difficult. This isn't like the housing market where if the demand falls suddenly there's so many houses on the market that you can buy them dirt cheap. Ammo and houses are different in that each of us consumers has a continuous need for more ammo, so even if the folks who have a lot of ammo end up selling it back on the market it still won't reach dirt cheap levels, it will just be on the market. Realistically for prices to come down in a meaningful way there would have to be so much on the market for long enough to make manufacturers and retailers reconsider price levels. Sadly, this doesn't seem likely, and I think the days of paying sub .50cpr for most calibers may be over. Reloading is apparently the future. Primer makers will increase production capabilities to cover the needs of the reloaders again eventually, they won't just let an area of business die.
EXTREMELY unlikely primer manufacturers would increase production capabilities, unless requested/incentivized/contracted to do so by their respective governments.

This rodeo has gone round before, however & IMO, this particular one will be worse than has been seen.
 

GWS

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EXTREMELY unlikely primer manufacturers would increase production capabilities, unless requested/incentivized/contracted to do so by their respective governments.

This rodeo has gone round before, however & IMO, this particular one will be worse than has been seen.
Their incentive would be their ability to raise their prices by 30-40% and still sell everything they can produce.
Their problem is that they are at peak production right now and can't decide if buying new manufacturing will make them or break them.
 
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There has always been talk of those who have "recharged" spent primers. I'm surprised that no one has produced and sold raw primer cups and anvils in small quantities. It also seems like a die and punch set would be feasible using a standard reloading press and strips of brass of the proper spec. There are various methods of producing the primer mixture (legally). Just thinking out loud.
 

Camelfilter

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Their incentive would be their ability to raise their prices by 30-40% and still sell everything they can produce.
Their problem is that they are at peak production right now and can't decide if buying new manufacturing will make them or break them.
Yup.

The other problems regarding new manufacturing are directly regularity amidst a firearms unfriendly administration, house & senate. Then ad the risk of possible indirect regulations to there domestic customer base (internet sale ban, sale limits, bgc etc etc).
 
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osprey

osprey

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Yep, I doubt primer manufacturers will buy more production equipment just to have it sit around gathering dust when the demand abates. It is just the reality of a volatile market. ROI would have to be under a year for them to do it, even if that panned out, they would have to pay taxes and maintenance costs on the real estate it would occupy, whether running or not.
 
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It was the same with .22LR after Sandy Hook. Manufacturers were cranking out ammo as fast as they could, but adding additional machinery to satisfy what was obviously going to be a temporary spike in demand just didn't make good business sense.

Most of us who were shooters at the time learned from that and started following the "buy it cheap and stack it deep" philosophy when supply and prices started easing up, and are in reasonable shape now. The spike in demand for reloading components was the surprise this time. I have plenty of powder and primers but found myself a little short on bullets so I've been buying what I can find (and afford). Delivery times on some of them are waaayyyyyyy out there, though.
 
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EXTREMELY unlikely primer manufacturers would increase production capabilities, unless requested/incentivized/contracted to do so by their respective governments.

This rodeo has gone round before, however & IMO, this particular one will be worse than has been seen.
Ammo demand in general is way up in a permanent way and primers a component, it would be a terrible business move to not increase production capabilities. They are a business after all. Not doing so would be like leaving business on the table.
 
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Yep, I doubt primer manufacturers will buy more production equipment just to have it sit around gathering dust when the demand abates. It is just the reality of a volatile market. ROI would have to be under a year for them to do it, even if that panned out, they would have to pay taxes and maintenance costs on the real estate it would occupy, whether running or not.
It won't abate fully, there's more new gun owners than ever before. We probably added 20% to our ranks during all this chaos, everyone on my street owns a gun for example now when it used to be only like half
 

Camelfilter

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Ammo demand in general is way up in a permanent way and primers a component, it would be a terrible business move to not increase production capabilities. They are a business after all. Not doing so would be like leaving business on the table.
Multiple blights have occurred in the past, all having surplus once abated.

Am hopeful this one will as well. The scope, depth and breadth of this one does seem worse than priors.
 
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When I was a kid, I would have to help my Dad cast bullets. The last time I casted bullets was over 30 years ago. It was more of a chore and I never had much interest, but I've always had an interest in jacketed bullet swaging. It is a fairly large investment, which has kept me away, but it may be time to make the jump. Corbins always seemed to have a hefty lead time for delivery, I guess I'll find out what it is now.
 

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