Is the US better prepared for a nuclear blast today than it was 60 years ago?

[OldBroad44]

Then keep NATO out of Russia. It's worked until now

No. It didnt. Russia took Crimea. Now its trying to take Ukraine. Russia with its poor sick dwindling demographic, does not have a big enough army to defend its current European border. Five years from now its army will be even smaller. Russians are too poor, oppressed, and miserable to have many children. About 20% of the population has TB. Death rates from TB, alcoholism and suicides are very high. They abandoned maintaining good schools so their engineers are now in their 50s or older. Most of their oil comes from areas of permafrost. Drilling and maintaining oil production in permafrost is much more difficult than normal. They don't have the engineering capacity to run that system. It was being run by Western engineers who all went home after Russia invaded Ukraine. Oil production on permafrost lasts only as long as the pipelines are kept full. If it stops for any reason, water in the pipes freezes and destroys everything. Sooner or later their now inadequately maintained oil production from permafrost wells will self destruct.

In order to have shorter more defendable borders guarded mostly by natural barriers, something that could be handled by a small army, Russia would need to expand its borders in Europe to where they were during the cold war. This means occupying or destroying all of Ukraine and Moldovia , most of Poland, and parts of several other countries. Poland and those several other countries are all members of Nato. And nobody, NATO or not, wants to be ruled by Russia (again). The most horrible part of the situation for the Eastern European countries Russia wants to conquer is that Russia's objectives would be just as well achieved if the countries were reduced to a lifeless, economic ruin or even a radioactive wasteland.

We let some countries join Nato, but not usually those that would create a major direct border between NATO and Russia such as Ukraine. Finland and Sweden stayed out of Nato, figuring a formally neutral position would less antagonize Russia. But they belong to EU and some lesser self defense packs with EU. They have been participating in joint military exercises with Nato for years. They are Western economically. Russia's invasion of Ukraine taught the Scandinavians just how useful staying out of Nato is. It was clear that a country on the border between NATO and Russia and staying neutral is not sufficient for Putin. Such countries will be invaded and conquered by Putin's Russia. So after Russia invaded Ukraine Finland and Sweden promptly applied to join Nato. Finland is already now a NATO partner, and Sweden will soon be. Good news for us. They bring a lot to the table.

I lifted the above perspectives from YouTube videos by geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan.

 

[wired]

No. It didnt. Russia took Crimea. Now its trying to take Ukraine. Russia with its poor sick dwindling demographic, does not have a big enough army to defend its current European border. Five years from now its army will be even smaller. Russians are too poor, oppressed, and miserable to have many children. About 20% of the population has TB. Death rates from TB, alcoholism and suicides are very high. They abandoned maintaining good schools so their engineers are now in their 50s or older. Most of their oil comes from areas of permafrost. Drilling and maintaining oil production in permafrost is much more difficult than normal. They don't have the engineering capacity to run that system. It was being run by Western engineers who all went home after Russia invaded Ukraine. Oil production on permafrost lasts only as long as the pipelines are kept full. If it stops for any reason, water in the pipes freezes and destroys everything. Sooner or later their now inadequately maintained oil production from permafrost wells will self destruct.

In order to have shorter more defendable borders guarded mostly by natural barriers, something that could be handled by a small army, Russia would need to expand its borders in Europe to where they were during the cold war. This means occupying or destroying all of Ukraine and Moldovia , most of Poland, and parts of several other countries. Poland and those several other countries are all members of Nato. And nobody, NATO or not, wants to be ruled by Russia (again). The most horrible part of the situation for the Eastern European countries Russia wants to conquer is that Russia's objectives would be just as well achieved if the countries were reduced to a lifeless, economic ruin or even a radioactive wasteland.

We let some countries join Nato, but not usually those that would create a major direct border between NATO and Russia such as Ukraine. Finland and Sweden stayed out of Nato, figuring a formally neutral position would less antagonize Russia. But they belong to EU and some lesser self defense packs with EU. They have been participating in joint military exercises with Nato for years. They are Western economically. Russia's invasion of Ukraine taught the Scandinavians just how useful staying out of Nato is. It was clear that a country on the border between NATO and Russia and staying neutral is not sufficient for Putin. Such countries will be invaded and conquered by Putin's Russia. So after Russia invaded Ukraine Finland and Sweden promptly applied to join Nato. Finland is already now a NATO partner, and Sweden will soon be. Good news for us. They bring a lot to the table.

I lifted the above perspectives from YouTube videos by geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan.

My wifes entire family is in Russia. I have lived there. I know a bit about the country. Its not as bad as you , or anyone else makes it out to be , The economy isn't as bad as youre told and if you look at things such as debt to GDP theyre in a LOT better condition than we and a lot of other western democracies are. . . We are in Mexico right now and to be honest the culture of Russia kind of reminds me of the culture of Mexico in a lot of ways. In any case NATO staying out of Russia is a good thing. The Russian took Crimea because is by far and away majority ethnically Russian and the Ukrainians only real claim to the territory was their being gifted it as an oblast during Soviet times. Ukraine has been getting pretty hostile to ethnic Russias in Ukraine and while we have a hard time understanding it the Russians see Ukraine as part of their historic territory and have no intention of letting it become part of NATO ever. They'd go to war to prevent that from happening as they are now and they'd fight NATO and use nukes if it ever did become part of NATO . We need to understand that self determination has its limits. We scarfed up a bunch of eastern Europe under the NATO umbrella when the Russians were weak after the Soviet Union fell. Probably too much. They need a buffer, we need a buffer.
Finland will join any alliance to stave off the Russians. Nazi's , NATO , they dont care and Sweden? No one cares about Sweden.
Russian is still the largest natural gas producer with the largest gas reserves and is still one of the top oil producers and they really haven't tapped out primary source oil yet. Their reserves with fracking could be several times Saudi reserves. They haven't put the squeeze on Europe yet but if NATO does ever decide to include Ukraine, then good luck fueling northern Europe.

 

[OldBroad44]

I think USA is less ready for a nuclear war now than during the cold war mosty just because we are all more technology dependent. When I was a kiddie, farms were mostly smaller. Tractors were smaller. And they could be repaired by the farmer. Grain and bean farmers mostly saved part of their crop for planting. These days intellectual property of food plant varieties outlaws seed saving of most of the commercial corn, soybean, and other bean varieties. The farmer couldn't fix his own tractor because its full of microchips. And if the roads were blocked he wouldn't have seed to plant because he buys it every year from a multinational giant instead of saving part of his own crop.

When I was a kid, many boys and men could fix their own cars. The cars were not full of microchips. And many could do fairly major carpentry. Many HSs had auto repair and carpentry shop classes (for boys only). Girl classes in my HS included typing, shorthand, and home ec. However I had already learned how to cook (which I liked) and basic sowing (which I hated) at home from my mother, just as many boys learned the basics of car repair and carpentry from their fathers.

 

[Provincial]

No. It didnt. Russia took Crimea. Now its trying to take Ukraine. Russia with its poor sick dwindling demographic, does not have a big enough army to defend its current European border. Five years from now its army will be even smaller. Russians are too poor, oppressed, and miserable to have many children. About 20% of the population has TB. Death rates from TB, alcoholism and suicides are very high. They abandoned maintaining good schools so their engineers are now in their 50s or older. Most of their oil comes from areas of permafrost. Drilling and maintaining oil production in permafrost is much more difficult than normal. They don't have the engineering capacity to run that system. It was being run by Western engineers who all went home after Russia invaded Ukraine. Oil production on permafrost lasts only as long as the pipelines are kept full. If it stops for any reason, water in the pipes freezes and destroys everything. Sooner or later their now inadequately maintained oil production from permafrost wells will self destruct.

In order to have shorter more defendable borders guarded mostly by natural barriers, something that could be handled by a small army, Russia would need to expand its borders in Europe to where they were during the cold war. This means occupying or destroying all of Ukraine and Moldovia , most of Poland, and parts of several other countries. Poland and those several other countries are all members of Nato. And nobody, NATO or not, wants to be ruled by Russia (again). The most horrible part of the situation for the Eastern European countries Russia wants to conquer is that Russia's objectives would be just as well achieved if the countries were reduced to a lifeless, economic ruin or even a radioactive wasteland.

We let some countries join Nato, but not usually those that would create a major direct border between NATO and Russia such as Ukraine. Finland and Sweden stayed out of Nato, figuring a formally neutral position would less antagonize Russia. But they belong to EU and some lesser self defense packs with EU. They have been participating in joint military exercises with Nato for years. They are Western economically. Russia's invasion of Ukraine taught the Scandinavians just how useful staying out of Nato is. It was clear that a country on the border between NATO and Russia and staying neutral is not sufficient for Putin. Such countries will be invaded and conquered by Putin's Russia. So after Russia invaded Ukraine Finland and Sweden promptly applied to join Nato. Finland is already now a NATO partner, and Sweden will soon be. Good news for us. They bring a lot to the table.

I lifted the above perspectives from YouTube videos by geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan.

Peter Zeihan has a large following. He is very assertive, but there is serious criticism of his work. Here is one assessment of his track record:
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/01/here-is-what-peter-zeihan-got-wrong-on-the-joe-rogan-show.html

Notice that it is the conclusions that are criticized, and the data is somewhat respected. From this it is possible that Zeihan is making radical assumptions from the data in order to expand his stature and income.

It is too bad that there isn't a simple rating system for the accuracy of these "advisors."

 

[ilikegunspdx]

Is the US better prepared for a nuclear blast today than it was 60 years ago?

Despite advances in technology and decades of research, experts worry we are still underprepared to handle a blast – and the aftermath

www.theguardian.com

We now know survival in deep mines can easily be accomplished:

 

[Provincial]

Russia, in both Imperial and Soviet times, had a policy of displacing populations from conquered areas and sending ethnic Russians to replace them. Evicting the Tarters from Crimea is one example. The Holodomor was another attempt to displace/kill the native population. Using the excuse of "protecting ethnic (fill in the blank) population" of one of these areas is a common feature of totalitarian violence. While it may have traction with the supporters of the regime, it is far from a justification.

While the populations of Petersburg, Moscow, and other Russian urban centers have seen relatively decent economic times and their young men haven't yet been rounded up and sent off to the killing fields, the youth of more rural areas, especially East of the Urals have borne the brunt of conscription. This has been a decision intended to safeguard the regime from backlash in the population centers.

Meanwhile, China is watching the erosion of Russian military power and the dissatisfaction of the population East of the Urals. They are licking their chops in anticipation of developing agricultural and mineral resources to their North. This can happen by commercial means, but also military. Even with the demographic problems of the One-Child policy, China has surplus workers to develop the Russian East.

 

[Provincial]

We now know survival in deep mines can easily be accomplished:

Living underground successfully requires dependable, long term electrical power. Generating that is a major hurdle. Mines can supply power from above ground. A fallout shelter probably cannot.

 

[The Heretic]

Russia, in both Imperial and Soviet times, had a policy of displacing populations from conquered areas and sending ethnic Russians to replace them. Evicting the Tarters from Crimea is one example. The Holodomor was another attempt to displace/kill the native population. Using the excuse of "protecting ethnic (fill in the blank) population" of one of these areas is a common feature of totalitarian violence. While it may have traction with the supporters of the regime, it is far from a justification.

We more or less did the same with the American indigenous people (Native Americans/Indians) and Mexicans (to a degree).

 

[OldBroad44]

My wifes entire family is in Russia. I have lived there. I know a bit about the country. Its not as bad as you , or anyone else makes it out to be , The economy isn't as bad as youre told and if you look at things such as debt to GDP theyre in a LOT better condition than we and a lot of other western democracies are. . . We are in Mexico right now and to be honest the culture of Russia kind of reminds me of the culture of Mexico in a lot of ways. In any case NATO staying out of Russia is a good thing. The Russian took Crimea because is by far and away majority ethnically Russian and the Ukrainians only real claim to the territory was their being gifted it as an oblast during Soviet times. Ukraine has been getting pretty hostile to ethnic Russias in Ukraine and while we have a hard time understanding it the Russians see Ukraine as part of their historic territory and have no intention of letting it become part of NATO ever. They'd go to war to prevent that from happening as they are now and they'd fight NATO and use nukes if it ever did become part of NATO . We need to understand that self determination has its limits. We scarfed up a bunch of eastern Europe under the NATO umbrella when the Russians were weak after the Soviet Union fell. Probably too much. They need a buffer, we need a buffer.
Finland will join any alliance to stave off the Russians. Nazi's , NATO , they dont care and Sweden? No one cares about Sweden.
Russian is still the largest natural gas producer with the largest gas reserves and is still one of the top oil producers and they really haven't tapped out primary source oil yet. Their reserves with fracking could be several times Saudi reserves. They haven't put the squeeze on Europe yet but if NATO does ever decide to include Ukraine, then good luck fueling northern Europe.

If you believe any economic numbers coming out of Russia I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.

Russia only invaded Ukraine to save ethnic Russians being mistreated by Ukrainians. Riiiight. That's why the Ukrainians have been fighting like wolverines. And women and children unable to fight have been fleeing to other countries rather than lining the roads to greet the Russians with cheers and flowers.

Ukraine and all the other countries that split from Russia when they had the chance did so because they didn't much enjoy being occupied by Russia.

Not surprised you see similarities between Russia and Mexico. To a large extent ruthless criminals are running both.

And Russia is way more functional and competent than we think? That's why their huge tank convoy stalled out on the third day of its invasion of Ukraine. Ran out of gas. Then the Russian soldiers deserted their tanks and marched home. Somebody forgot to bring food. And they were demoralized, that is, their feelings were hurt when the Ukrainians fought like a people being invaded by enemies instead greeting them with hugs and flowers like they had been led to believe they would.

 

[CountryGent]

I see Civil Defense has been referenced a few times in this thread. Some books that cover the history of said in this country that may be of interest:

• One Nation Underground: The Fallout Shelter in American Culture, Kenneth D. Rose (2004, New York University Press)
• Bracing for Armageddon: Why Civil Defense Never Worked, Dee Garrison (2006, Oxford University Press)
• Every Home a Fortress: Cold War Fatherhood and the Family Fallout Shelter, Thomas Bishop (2020, University of Massachusetts Press)
• The Worlds of Herman Kahn: The Intuitive Science of Thermonuclear War, Sharon Ghamari-Tabrizi (2005, Harvard University Press)
• Nuclear Freeze in a Cold War: The Reagan Administration, Cultural Activism, and the End of the Arms Race, William M. Knoblauch (2017, University of Massachusetts Press)

Anyway, I found them, generally, worthwhile. Cheers.

 

[wired]

If you believe any economic numbers coming out of Russia I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.

Russia only invaded Ukraine to save ethnic Russians being mistreated by Ukrainians. Riiiight. That's why the Ukrainians have been fighting like wolverines. And women and children unable to fight have been fleeing to other countries rather than lining the roads to greet the Russians with cheers and flowers.

Ukraine and all the other countries that split from Russia when they had the chance did so because they didn't much enjoy being occupied by Russia.

Not surprised you see similarities between Russia and Mexico. To a large extent ruthless criminals are running both.

And Russia is way more functional and competent than we think? That's why their huge tank convoy stalled out on the third day of its invasion of Ukraine. Ran out of gas. Then the Russian soldiers deserted their tanks and marched home. Somebody forgot to bring food. And they were demoralized, that is, their feelings were hurt when the Ukrainians fought like a people being invaded by enemies instead greeting them with hugs and flowers like they had been led to believe they would.

Like I said I know a lot more about Russia and how things really are there than you do

 

[OldBroad44]

Like I said I know a lot more about Russia and how things really are there than you do

 

[Diamondback]

Maybe - but I hope I am not wrong and that there are some level headed people in the Kremlin who won't let the situation in Europe devolve into a nuclear WWIII - because if there aren't enough to prevent that, and it goes that far, we are truly up a fecal creek without a paddle.

Here again, it would need to be someone who:
1. Knows about Dead Hand *and*
2. Has the authority to give the No-Go order or better yet the order to disengage it. Otherwise it's a hair trigger.

 

[monkeybutler]

I think you vastly underestimate the desire of the Russian to maintain their territorial integrity . It is the reason for their Nuclear arsenal and any incursion into Russia or the part of the world they consider to be part of Russia whether we do or not would be dealt with nukes no matter who is in charge. The Russian, at least most, don't consider Putin to be unstable or dangerous. They see him as the man holding Russia together against an America hell bent on destroying their influence in their part of the world.

One day the world will cheer when Russia is a smoldering heap. Time to take out the trash.

 

[dingo97223]

I noticed your sword fight here...but it seems you're going to lose this fight. You claim to have your knowledge from a guy on YouTube who knows that to get more clicks/money he will use scaremongering verbal acrobatics that matches the narrative of the day, like Putin will invade Poland, Europe, etc. You are using a YouTube guy's view/opinion to argue here with a guy who actually lived in Russia, and know the facts first hand.
It's like arguing with someone about a movie that you yourself have never watched.
To avoid any missinterpretation , I will put here a disclaimer that I am not pro Russia, nor pro Ukraine, and I have friends both Ukrainians and Russians. Growing up I used to have a grudge against Russia simply because that's where the communism came from. My Grandfather was taken prisoner by the soviets in WW2 and walked back home to E Europe after escaping from a Siberian camp.
With that out of the way, you have so many wrong facts in your comments, that I had to jump in, with the hope that other less informed readers here are not taking them at face value.
Crimea was Russian after being taken from the Tatars just like Texas was Mexico until taken by the US.
Tzarist Russia fought Napoleon and later Soviet Russia fought Hitler, who both wanted to take Crimea, and both lost.Over 350,000 Russians died in these two wars, defending Crimea.

Later, the Soviets, who considered Ukrainians as brothers, transferred Crimea under Soviet Ukrainian administration. Then the Soviet Union collapsed and many countries declared their independence, including Ukraine which by an oversight by Moskow ended up with Crimea within their new borders. (By the way, today's Ukraine is a combination of the much smaller Greater Ukraine, and lands in the East formerly Russian, lands in the West formerly Polish, and lands in the SW formerly Romanian taken by the Soviets as payment for war damages after WW2).
The lines were drawn and Russia accepted Ukraine's borders since they were still seeing Ukraine as a friendly, brotherly country with at least a third of population being Russian, and a friendly Ukrainian government. For years, Russia paid Ukraine around 100 million dollars a year rent to use the Sevastopol naval base, which has an immense strategic value in that part of the world for whomever controls it.
Meanwhile, NATO was creeping closer to Russia's borders, and Russia only contested vocally whenever a new country was accepted in the alliance, but seemed seriously concerned after the US Navy started sponsoring rebuilding of different schools in Crimea to warm up the local population towards NATO/West.

The straw that broke the camel's back was when the Maidan revolution was synchronized to start around the same time when Russia was busy sponsoring the winter Olympic games, and the US Ambassador was handing cookies to rioters which were burning cops on Kiev streets. It became clear that US/NATO was directly involved in trying to overthrow the Russian friendly government. When that president was finally ousted and fled to Russia, the Russians sent the green men which took control of Crimea without firing one shot. 19 tons of Ukraine's gold reserves were flown at night from Kiev to NY. A new president, handpicked by US was put in power without whole Ukrainian vote. The whole East Ukraine, predominantly Russian did not recognize the new puppet president. The first thing that the new president did, was to load tanks and heavy artillery on trains and to send them to East Ukraine to punish the Russians there. They bombarded the area indiscriminately for years, killing thousands of Russians including hundreds of children. Ukraine also outlawed Russian language in it's schools. The East asked for Russian intervention, which came as weapons and after a few years of fighting Ukrainian nationalist troops, they separated from Ukraine in independent republics, which Ukraine never recognized.
Ukrainians were tired of war and Zelensky ran as a pro Russian anti war candidate and was elected. People were starting to have hope. He even had a treaty ready to be signed with Russia that Ukraine will not join NATO.
Borris Johnson flew from London to Kiev twice in one week to convince Zelenski not to sign the treaty with Russia, and to promise him any and all military and financial assistance from NATO/West in case Russia attacks Ukraine.
"What ever it takes" was and still is the slogan used in the West when referring to the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Zelensky decided to change his pro Russian position, asked to be accepted in NATO, and Putin sent a column of rookies in trucks and tanks towards Kiev as a show of force, hoping to change Zelensky's mind. That first wave was untrained, unprepared for war, surprised , and retreated, which made all the naive minds in the West to have a victory lap. Then the real war started. Fast forward, Russia occupies over 20 percent more of Ukraine, has ammo and hardware to fight for years, and has hundreds of thousands of soldiers in reserves including over 150000 volunteers, even after loosing tens of thousands of men already. Ukraine lost over 20 percent of its landmass, between 300000-500000 men or a couple of generations, is begging a tired West for more funds and assistance, while scouring local streets, bars, clubs, hotels, and McDonalds restaurants for young men/teenagers and women to send to the front, and is facing a possible revolt within it's military ranks and civilian population.
They fought and died bravely, but they did not advanced an inch, and is very likely that they will loose more land and more brave men, while the military complex in the West are laughing their way to the bank.
Let's consider the alternative, if they would have refrain to kill and persecute their own Russian population, and if they would have chosen to remain neutral and not wanting to join NATO, today they would still have Crimea and collect rent for it, they would still have the East and the rest of Ukraine they lost, and not one Ukrainian man would have died in battle. They would have prospered as a neutral bridge nation between the West and Russia, minding their own business while respecting their security concerns of their much bigger neighbor. Cuba made the same mistake, they did not consider the US security concerns by intending to have Russian missiles on their land, and are still paying for it decades later, being punished by the US.

So, back to your other points, every country has it's own problems, demographic, economic, suicidal, addiction etc. Just look around. The biggest problem I see here is in the drastic sudden change in culture in general, and lack of focus towards healthy education, values , patriotism and constructive dialogue , all of which helped molding the great society and country that we had until recently, when the world became upside down.

And to get back on the topic of this thread, I don't know if we are better prepared for a nuclear blast now, since I am too young to compare with the cold war. But to give you a perspective and comparison , Russian kids are thought to love their country from a young age, to revere their veterans, their history and their monuments, while our kids are thought to be ashamed of their race, are thought in school how to sodomize each other, some were spitting on veterans faces (after Vietnam), are shown that there are not consequences, are changing the language, are destroying statues and monuments, and some are purely anti American. The government is infighting, the country is deeply polarized, there is no border, nobody wants to join the military besides trans people for free surgeries, and this government is more like a clown show. Back in the 60s kids were shown in school what to do in case of a nuclear blast. Today they have drag shows and CRT / DEI classes. Nobody talks about nuclear blasts anymore. Very few people, if any, know what to do in case of a nuclear blast, or what resources, if any are there.
Let's just hope and pray that there will never be one, even thou the risk of one seems to grow day by day.

 

[wired]

One day the world will cheer when Russia is a smoldering heap. Time to take out the trash.

Well, Russia being a smodering heap and us being a smoldering heap would be concurrent. Watch what you wish for.

 

[monkeybutler]

Well, Russia being a smodering heap and us being a smoldering heap would be concurrent. Watch what you wish for.

Obviously. My statement was more an expression of… sentiment… of wishing the cancer were gone.

 

[wired]

Obviously. My statement was more an expression of… sentiment… of wishing the cancer were gone.

Wishful thinking work for you?

 

[monkeybutler]

Wishful thinking work for you?

Perhaps better than Putin's sad war machine is working for him. How are your nearly two year old predictions of a cakewalk for Russia working out?

 

[wired]

Perhaps better than Putin's sad war machine is working for him. How are your nearly two year old predictions of a cakewalk for Russia working out?

They're still there and they're not giving up. It's ground to a stalemate at this point and western countries the US in particular have gotten tired of funding Ukraine. The winter is on and Russia will have time to regroup and launch more offensive come spring. Israel has taken the spotlight away. Russian elections are in the spring. Putin will win handily sac there really isn't an opposition party in Russia that numbers more than single digits. Matter of time at this point.