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Accuracy is king.
Caliber choice and bullet type is queen. Handgun caliber seems to rarely make up for poor shot placement.

In my opinion, there's only really two serious handgun calibers vying for top dog in the carry and home defense rolls. That's the 9mm and .40 caliber. The others offer far too many sacrifices to weed them out, which I'll do first. This commentary is assuming high quality HP defensive ammo is available.

The .32 and smaller are easy to ignore given scarcity, subpar performance, and higher costs.

Going a step smaller, the .380 is smaller, same capacity due to diameter, and performs less impressively than the 9mm, and costs more. They are both offered in all but the smallest of (often less desirable blowback) platforms, which are a very niche and easily ignored carry choice. The 9 is a superior choice to train (cost) and for defense (performance). For these reasons, I have never carried a .380 and rarely shot them (and I even own several).

Going a step above .40 is the .45 in common calibers. The .45 is impressive, but suffers dramatically in woeful capacity and notably higher costs. Per bullet it performs very well, but you are really limited on training (due to costs) and capacity. Costs of the guns are generally higher, and costs of the ammo are notably more. Most .45s carry anywhere from 20-50% less capacity in the same size/weight gun, or require a much larger gun to get into competitive capacity numbers. Performance might me marginally better than 9mm in HP rounds, but not sufficient to justify the sacrifices.

The .357 Sig is the approximate equivalent of the 9mm and .40 caliber at a higher cost and scarcity so I'll set that niche caliber aside.

That leaves us with the 9mm and .40. Much of this is a generalization given the choice of bullets, weights, manufacturers, etc. It's a universal fact that you can fit more 9mm in the same dimensions over the .40 caliber. So the 9 always has a capacity/space advantage. Generally speaking, 9 costs less which equates to more training money or ammo allowance. That improves accuracy, which is the most important factor. More shots also improves odds of hitting vitals. The 9mm, particularly in +P, or premium loads, is extremely impressive. They can be pushed to remarkable numbers, but that negates the costs savings and batters the guns so steady diets of higher pressure ammo are not advised. These loads were not available decades ago. Still, even hotrod 9mm is only 147grains, which is smaller than the typical .40, and only a little faster.

Yes the .40 has benefited from improvements to ballistics, but it had "less to improve upon" than the 9mm. So in a sense the .40 couldn't be perfected as much. That's my understanding. Still, I believe it does still marginally outperform the 9mm. Right now, in 2019, the advantage the .40 has is as good or better TYPICAL performance in equal guns and bullets. 165grains and 180grains going 1000+ fps and starting out with a larger diameter of 9mm is impressive. Nearly every apples-to-apples tests with the best 9 vs. best 40 results in great performance for both, but better bullet vs. bullet .40 performance. .40 ammo is more expensive, but the guns are generally deeply discounted in 2019 and that helps compensate for the more pricey ammo. The other big advantage is that you can buy a discounted .40 caliber gun, and a 9mm barrel and mags, and a .357 barrel, and have 3 guns for versatility for about the price of one 9mm gun.

Capacity notes. Most gun fights, statistically, seem to be resolved in less than 10 total shots fired by both sides. So it seems that the capacity wars into the high teens are mostly moot. Regardless, no doubt the 9mm wins on capacity. Typical 9mm guns (CZ 75 P01 Tactical 18+1, Springfield XDS 19+1) outclass .40 by several rounds for the same sized gun. That might be important in an extended defensive fight and is noteworthy.

Earlier this year I did some research on numbers of guns produced in each caliber. The 9mm is far ahead in the race. Something like for every 5 guns in 9mm made, there's 2 in .45 and 1 in .40. So the buying public has spoken pretty clearly they prefer small, inexpensive, higher capacity, faster bullets. Not a bad choice.

Ballistics tests show both the 9 and 40 reliably achieve 12-18" gel test penetration and good expansion. Both are excellent. My choice is primarily .40 caliber, but I'm very confident in the 9mm and have about equal number of guns in each of these. My buying habits are either caliber, either platform, whatever the better price deal is at the time. These are two very cross competitive designs...
 
In 1984, the Terminator went into a gunshop to get weapons. He asked for:

A .40 caliber, otherwise known as a Phased Plasma rifle in 40 watt range, which is clearly what it became known as.

So even in the future the Terminators knew it was a superior weapon. Long live the .40... :)
 
.40 should be outlawed !
I pull up to one of my shooting areas and see a 'carpet' of brass on the ground and its .40!!
Not 9mm or .45!
I see more .40 left than anything else!

A little off topic, but I have a story about brass in the woods.

A friend told me once about how he and a buddy were shooting shotguns out in the hills, throwing clays off the edge of a landing on BLM land out of Eugene somewhere. A police officer pulls up in a pickup truck and watches them for a minute, then gets out and asks them if they're going to pick up their empties.

My friend said there were years worth of empty shotgun hulls on the landing, and a lot of rifle and pistol brass. They stuttered a bit because they hadn't even thought about it. "Uh, we can I guess".

He said the officer started chewing them out- "Wrong answer! Yes, you will, or I fine you for littering!"
He said the guy stood there and watched them until they picked up not only their own hulls, but all the hulls and brass on the landing!

He was irked because they felt a little mistreated, but then again I'll bet they never left junk behind again. He laughed it off as a good lesson learned. :)
 
If you are worried about 9mm performance but really like the 9mm, do what I do, switch to the 357 SIG! Hey, it is still a 9mm. Faster and penetrates deeper, and also manageable. I am quite good with this round out of my SIG 226 and 1911.

9x19 is great. I walked away from 45 ACP for human sized-targets.

9mm+P+ is not that much behind .357 SIG and .40 is about is equivalent with lighter projectiles, better with heavier ones. The downside of .357 SIG and .40 is that they take up more room in the mag, so less rounds for the same dimensions.

Everything has a pro and con - .45 ACP and 10mm, with the right ammo, are good, 10mm about the same ballistics as .45 ACP, but better sectional density. Again, the right ammo and placement counts, but each of these will have better penetration with the same projectile type.

I do not feel undergunned with 9mm, .357 SIG, .40 or .45 ACP - I have semi-autos for each. The 9mm is good for sub-compacts (e.g., Kahr PM9 or SIG P365) and concealed carry, but I like .40 as a good compromise between 9mm and .45 ACP. If I didn't care about weight or "printing", and I am concerned about human foes within 50 yards, then I prefer my P227 in .45 ACP.
 
Lethality vs a One Shot Stop can be light yeats apart, so it pays to study historical performamce as well as modern test results amd taken with a grain of salt, make tbe best choice you can! I have seen some pretty amazing things during my time in the service, stuff that makes you go WTF, how did that guy survive that, and others where you scratch your head wondering why something that should have been survivable and yet wasnt! Really makes you wonder! My Grand Dad always said it was best if you could remove large offensive parts off of some one, ready made them question such things as should I try and continue this fight, amd this is where the big pistol calibers really come into play, hard to argue with a 230 gr
45 ACP when your shootin arm has been ballistically removed from your body, or your leg is now completly useless due to that Big big slug now embedded in your bone having shattered surrounding bone! All the others can do that, but none as good as the .45 and bigger, eapecially with alot more power begind them, like .44 or .45 Colt! While todays needs have changed drastically, the performance is beyond question!
 
Here's the FBI's explanation for why they switched to the 9mm in recent years, noting in particular the improved quality of bullets since 2007.

The Reasons Why FBI Went to Back to 9mm | SOFREP

Summary:
" While some law enforcement agencies have transitioned to larger calibers from the 9mm Luger in recent years, they do so at the expense of reduced magazine capacity, more felt recoil, and given adequate projectile selection, no discernible increase in terminal performance.

Other law enforcement organizations seem to be making the move back to 9mm Luger taking advantage of the new technologies which are being applied to 9mm Luger projectiles. These organizations are providing their armed personnel the best chance of surviving a deadly force encounter since they can expect faster and more accurate shot strings, higher magazine capacities (similar sized weapons) and all of the terminal performance which can be expected from any law enforcement caliber projectile.

Given the above realities and the fact that numerous ammunition manufacturers now make 9mm Luger service ammunition with outstanding premium line law enforcement projectiles, the move to 9mm Luger can now be viewed as a decided advantage for our armed law enforcement personnel."
 
Some of the 45 projectiles during ww2 were bimetal like tula and wolf. The steel cased ammo look to be heavy on the iron mix considering the projectile rust after a mere 75 years. I shot a couple rounds from 42 that worked great but seemed soft .compaired to the modern factory ammo. I had that day.
 
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I could post the stats, but the highlights pointed out that at the time (mid 80s through early 2000s) 9mm did poorly compared to others! Not to get into the old debate of which is better, i will note here that of all the results i saw, there were two that were far and away much more effective then all others, .357 magnum, and the old war horse .45 ACP! Dosnt take a rocket surgeon to make sense of all that, those two were the top in lethality!
While the results also included other big bore, the qumlitive results were not sufficient enough to lead to quantified results! It also solidified my position on the need for a sufficient pistol round fory personal carry, one that was showing the most promising results, 10mm auto loaded heavy and fast! While the results of the Big 10 are quite good, there just isn't enough data to form a proper opinion of it over the others, BUT, the data that has been complied is quite telling!


If open carry was a thing, I would carry a high quality 1911 in 10mm, but it ain't, and I am not tough enough, nor are my hands large enough to shoot a g29 well, so I carry a 9mm.
 
Here's the FBI's explanation for why they switched to the 9mm in recent years, noting in particular the improved quality of bullets since 2007.

The Reasons Why FBI Went to Back to 9mm | SOFREP

Good article IMO!

From same:

Understanding Handgun Caliber Terminal Ballistic Realities


Many so called "studies" have been performed and many analyses of statistical data have been undertaken regarding this issue. Studies simply involving shooting deaths are irrelevant since the goal of law enforcement is to stop a threat during a deadly force encounter as quickly as possible. Whether or not death occurs is of no consequence as long as the threat of death or serious injury to law enforcement personnel and innocent third parties is eliminated.


"The concept of immediate incapacitation is the only goal of any law enforcement shooting and is the underlying rationale for decisions regarding weapons, ammunition, calibers and training."1


Studies of "stopping power" are irrelevant because no one has ever been able to define how much power, force, or kinetic energy, in and of itself, is required to effectively stop a violent and determined adversary quickly, and even the largest of handgun calibers are not capable of delivering such force. Handgun stopping power is simply a myth. Studies of so?called "one shot stops" being used as a tool to define the effectiveness of one handgun cartridge, as opposed to another, are irrelevant due to the inability to account for psychological influences and due to the lack of reporting specific shot placement.


In short, extensive studies have been done over the years to "prove" a certain cartridge is better than another by using grossly flawed methodology and or bias as a precursor to manipulating statistics. In order to have a meaningful understanding of handgun terminal ballistics, one must only deal with facts that are not in dispute within the medical community, i.e. medical realities, and those which are also generally accepted within law enforcement, i.e. tactical realities.


Medical Realities


Shots to the Central Nervous System (CNS) at the level of the cervical spine (neck) or above, are the only means to reliably cause immediate incapacitation. In this case, any of the calibers commonly used in law enforcement, regardless of expansion, would suffice for obvious reasons. Other than shots to the CNS, the most reliable means for affecting rapid incapacitation is by placing shots to large vital organs thus causing rapid blood loss. Simply stated, shot placement is the most critical component to achieving either method of incapacitation.
 
There will never be a definitive answer. I just try to make sure there is something within reach.
I used to spend time wondering which was the better caliber but have come to the realization that there are too many variables. I can still recall an event in Sadr City that left me with the conclusion that the M16 and 5.56 round was utterly worthless. Would a handgun have done better? Nope. The answer in my mind is to just have something. It's better than nothing.
 
So does anyone have info / sources on something I have heard from several people over the past few years (since the FBI report recommending a return to 9mm) that there were, lets say, ethical issues with the findings of the initial report, as in they wanted the 40 cal to win? This may be urban legend but lets just say I wouldn't be shocked. Anyone?

And no disrespect to Lead's post on this...
Ballistics tests show both the 9 and 40 reliably achieve 12-18" gel test penetration and good expansion.
...but I've never been attacked by angry gelatin. Stay Puff marshmallows perhaps, but never jello. ;)
 
Rules for self defense with a handgun...

#1. Carry a pistol
#2. Make sure it's 100% reliable, reasonably accurate and your entirely comfortable shooting
#3. Train effectively and become proficient enough at minimum to operate it without conscious thought
#4. Do what you do well with what works for you and don't worry about the critics

In most cases I carry a .380 for easy concealing and convenience. In a higher threat area I'm packing a .45 ACP. Would I feel inadequately heeled with a good 9mm? No.
 
Yes, very much so, relatively speaking.

I haven't read every reply. That being said, IMHO shot placement is the #1 factor. 9mm, .357, .45, etc. when put in the right place will perform. Now that's WAAAAYYYYY easier said than done in real life when things start getting dynamic (not static/stationary situations). And none of them also fall into 'pick badguy up and throw thru nearest plate-glass window' power territory either.

Shot placement, when luck is taken out the equation, is usually directly related to proficiency. And proficiency comes from quality practice. And for those that aren't getting free ammo, 9mm offers a lot more opportunity for proficiency per dollar (ie. its cheaper). So for those firmly in the sub six figure income middle class, 9mm gets the nod. All the other things come into play as well (more size efficient handguns you'll actually carry, lighter recoil, faster follow-up shots, etc).

$.02 worth.

Boss

Jan 17, 2020 Olympia 2A Rights Rally:eek:


Someone else to consider for governor:

 
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Ugh....Bella Twin and her grizzly.

Yes that grizzly was killed with a .22Long cartridge fired from a single shot rifle ...
She also waited until the bear was really close and shot it again several times after the bear went down.
Luck played a large role here...along with coolness of will and action , when in a bad situation , as well as excellent shot placement.

You cannot count on being lucky and having excellent shot placement at all times....

This is not said to discount the use of the .22 firearm....I like my .22 single shot rifles and use them to great effect on small game and various targets.
But...
To talk about Bella Twin and her fantastic shot , without taking into consideration the particular set of almost unique circumstances regrading her shooting that day , can lead one to a false conclusion...with the effectiveness of the various .22 rimfire cartridges.
Andy
I think this well illustrates a few of your points. Sometimes weird things happen when bullets hit. Also shot placement matters and she knew what she was doing. Also, I really would not have wanted to be in her situation. I think perhaps someone could replicate that level of self defense know how with a .22 but it sure isn't me.
 
Or maybe the majority are more efficient with 9mm? Look at MARSOC and a ton of other special forces that run 9mm. I wouldn't really look at those guys and say they were "beta-males." Way more ammo capacity, easier follow up shots, lower recoil, and with the right ammo just as lethal.

They also use a rifle as a primary.... so I'm not sure what caliber they use has much significance to the self defense conversation. The other factor to consider is how NATO is married to 9mm, possibly their choice of 9mm is strictly a logistics one. Stocking a caliber and supplying a caliber just for MARSOC would be tedious.
 
They also use a rifle as a primary.... so I'm not sure what caliber they use has much significance to the self defense conversation. The other factor to consider is how NATO is married to 9mm, possibly their choice of 9mm is strictly a logistics one. Stocking a caliber and supplying a caliber just for MARSOC would be tedious.
Not really cause SRT runs .45 in the Marines. While everyone else runs 9mm. And you're correct. The 5.56 in their primary but when that goes down they rely on their sidearm which is 9mm. It's still self defense. Whether it's primary or secondary.
 

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