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Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Official Thread

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I had thought about bank notes yesterday when I was shopping and used some cash. :eek:

A nefarious way to spread a virus... :eek:
Hows it different from sticking in a card or sliding it into the slot ;) (I do wonder, are strippers now having work phones with Square doodads on them for tips???)


Edit on a more serious note...

Think how gross the card pads are at stores :s0001: Does anyone think they actually can spray them down?

Edit 2. Holy moly. Guess cash is indeed cleaner than cards :s0001:

 

winterveil

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It amazes me in this day and age that we can't get a reliable sense of what the real story is (even in China).

Has anybody heard the stories of crematoriums running in overtime mode? Sounds like misinformation to me but I would like to know the real story.

I had heard the numbers were stabilizing, is that not true?
Yes I've heard about the crematoriums. In addition to the rumors from people on the ground, an Asian media company (not in China) called one crematorium in wuhan posing as a CCP official to try to get information. The person on the phone confirmed the rumors without prompting, if we can trust the translation. It's been reported on enough international news networks that I'm inclined to belive there's merit to it. There have also been reports of extremely elevated levels of SO2 around Wuhan, which is generated when burning biomass.

Over 100 million Chinese in quarantine now. The hospitals are completely overwhelmed and over 1700 Healthcare workers have been infected while treating patients. Multiple convention centers and other similar locations have been converted into quarantine centers. The "field hospitals" that were built in under two weeks have bars on all the windows, and PLA guards there are outfitted with pole-arms topped with control collars.

People have been welded into their apartments, and in the areas that aren't totally locked down, a single family member can go out every 2 days for supplies, as long as they have ID papers and are subjected to multiple temp checks while out and before returning.

Despite all of that, the number of infected keeps rising.

Multiple experts from multiple countries have stated that the official numbers are likely 10% or less of the actual numbers. This is based on the rate of transmission, and the timeline and number of infections outside of China among other data points.

Don't trust the official numbers that China is putting out.
 

jbett98

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I read an interesting sci-fi novel about a DNA research scientist that lost his wife and young daughter due a terrorist bomb attack in Europe.
Twelve years later he releases a devastating virus that only attacks women. He sent the virus through contaminated currency that was sent all around the world to banks. Every female on the planet died, as no cure could be found in time.
It was a very disturbing, but foretelling look into the secrete world of virology.
 
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Using and R0 with 2.3, disease modelers use proven accurate computer models to predict ~300,000 infections by next week, and up to 550,000 to 4.4 million infections very soon...

Disease modelers gaze into their computers to see the future of Covid-19, and it isn’t good
By SHARON BEGLEY

"Using an R0 of 2.3 and serial interval of seven days, they project 300,000 cases by next week. If the serial interval is even one day less, the number of cases blasts past 1.5 million by then. But if the countermeasures that China introduced in January, including isolating patients, encouraging people to wear face masks, and of course quarantining Wuhan, reduce the effective reproduction number, as has almost certainly happened, those astronomical numbers would plummet: to 100,000 and 350,000 cases, respectively...

When people’s chances of becoming infected vary, an outbreak is more likely to be eventually contained (by tracing contacts and isolating cases); it might reach a cumulative 550,000 cases in Wuhan, Allard and his colleagues concluded. If everyone has the same chance, as with flu (absent vaccination), the probability of containment is significantly lower and could reach 4.4 million there. Or as the researchers warn, “the outbreak almost certainly cannot be contained and we must prepare for a pandemic ….”
 
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ATCclears

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This is a good read on the Coronavirus. You should be able to open the link if you have an Apple laptop, iPad, or iPhone (it will likely open in Apple News). Otherwise, the article may be behind a pay wall.

The article seems to confirm my earlier posting and hypothesis that there is a higher rate of what I called Viral Pneumonia.

So the real question may be are there sufficient medical facilities to treat the severe patients if the virus impacts a large population center? ...hence the much higher Mortality Rate than a typical flu virus.


snippet:

For most patients, COVID-19 begins and ends in their lungs, because like the flu, coronaviruses are respiratory diseases.

They spread typically when an infected person coughs or sneezes, spraying droplets that can transmit the virus to anyone in close contact. Coronaviruses also cause flu-like symptoms: Patients might start out with a fever and cough that progresses to pneumonia or worse. (Find out how coronavirus spreads on a plane—and the safest place to sit).

After the SARS outbreak, the World Health Organization reported that the disease typically attacked the lungs in three phases: viral replication, immune hyper-reactivity, and pulmonary destruction.

Not all patients went through all three phases—in fact only 25 percent of SARS patients suffered respiratory failure, the defining signature of severe cases. Likewise, COVID-19, according to early data, causes milder symptoms in about 82 percent of cases, while the remainder are severe or critical.
...
That’s when phase two and the immune system kicks in. Aroused by the presence of a viral invader, our bodies step up to fight the disease by flooding the lungs with immune cells to clear away the damage and repair the lung tissue.

When working properly, this inflammatory process is tightly regulated and confined only to infected areas. But sometimes your immune system goes haywire and those cells kill anything in their way, including your healthy tissue.

“So you get more damage instead of less from the immune response,” Frieman says. Even more debris clogs up the lungs, and pneumonia worsens. (Find out how the novel coronavirus compares to flu, Ebola, and other major outbreaks).

During the third phase, lung damage continues to build—which can result in respiratory failure. Even if death doesn’t occur, some patients survive with permanent lung damage. According to the WHO, SARS punched holes in the lungs, giving them “a honeycomb-like appearance”—and these lesions are present in those afflicted by novel coronavirus, too.

These holes are likely created by the immune system’s hyperactive response, which creates scars that both protect and stiffen the lungs.

When that occurs, patients often have to be put on ventilators to assist their breathing. Meanwhile, inflammation also makes the membranes between the air sacs and blood vessels more permeable, which can fill the lungs with fluid and affect their ability to oxygenate blood.

“In severe cases, you basically flood your lungs and you can’t breathe,” Frieman says. “That’s how people are dying.”


 
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It's just a mutant flu. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Over 760,000,000 people, over 1/2 of China, representing 10% of the entire world's population, is now under direct quarantine measures to try to stop COVID19 from spreading.

[FYI, nobody is locking down nations over the common flu or measles.]
 
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Article states that Chinese scientists believe COVID19 is a bio-engineered disease that leaked out of Wuhan facility.


"Did coronavirus originate in Chinese government laboratory? Scientists believe killer disease may have begun in research facility 300 yards from Wuhan wet fish market"
By ROSS IBBETSON FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 08:22 EST, 16 February 2020

"A new bombshell paper from the Beijing-sponsored South China University of Technology says that the Wuhan Center for Disease Control (WHCDC) could have spawned the contagion in Hubei province.

'The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus,' penned by scholars Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao claims the WHCDC kept disease-ridden animals in laboratories, including 605 bats.

It also mentions that bats - which are linked to coronavirus - once attacked a researcher and 'blood of bat was on his skin.'"

"'It is plausible that the virus leaked around and some of them contaminated the initial patients in this epidemic, though solid proofs are needed in future study.' ...And as well as the WHCDC, the report suggests that the Wuhan Institute of Virology could also have leaked the virus...."
 
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Dr. Campbell's video for today is excellent. Note that his figures are already outdated. Since this video this morning, we've added 2000 infections and 100 deaths. Now over 71,000 infections and almost 1800 deaths.

 

RicInOR

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300 US Residents got a flight home after 2 weeks in Japan on a Cruise Ship. Now they get 2 weeks of US military hospitality.
The couple from Forest Grove was left behind. I assume the husband chose to stay, the wife has tested positive, but no outward symptoms.

This was on Fox12 TV this morning, I didn't look up a link.
 

Camelfilter

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300 US Residents got a flight home after 2 weeks in Japan on a Cruise Ship. Now they get 2 weeks of US military hospitality.
The couple from Forest Grove was left behind. I assume the husband chose to stay, the wife has tested positive, but no outward symptoms.

This was on Fox12 TV this morning, I didn't look up a link.
Heard a rumor on another forum in regards to some quarantined Oregonian having some type of a self righteous meltdown. Something along the lines of there “deserving” to come home, and “disregarding” quarantine. Or some such.

Likely this woman. Dunno tho, as didn’t actually see a video.
 
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I think it's commonly believed China is not telling the truth on the real numbers and the origin. I've remained very skeptical. China's significant and expensive measures suggests this is very very bad and beyond what we are told.

I stumbled on this article from 17 days ago, February 1st. Apparently a Asian news agency had the "actual" numbers of infected and dead. It retracted and corrected the numbers to the approved figures the next day.
As of 1 FEB they reported:

Infected: ~154,000
Dead: ~25,000

Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths
Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus
By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2020/02/05 18:59

"On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), the Tencent webpage showed confirmed cases of the Wuhan virus in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics."

That would correlate to a 16% death rate...

And that information is over 2 weeks old.

In my mind that would further lend reason to the massive and expensive quarantine measures China is taking, and the huge wide spread heat signatures from assumed massive burning going on there.
 
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Was reading Fortune magazine article that shows that flight restrictions and travel bans between China and the rest of the world began early February, and back dated 2-4 weeks, to early/mid January.

The problem is, the virus began sometime in November, and some patients have shown incubation for up to over 3 weeks. First cases arose mid December and it was a mystery. And the end of the year was major Chinese holiday(s). First diagnoses came early January, with the first death mid-January. The theoretical overlap is problematic. Some China destined travelers returning home might very well have carried the virus. And we've seen that to some extent - a death in Japan and France, and infections spread to the world.

So the nutshell is there is a ~6 week lag time from where China was in November, on what we may potentially see in the rest of the world. And there's risk as those travelers may or may not turn ill. Or infect others with their virus. Those folks who might be infected in mid-January but allowed to escape China may be infected yet asymptomatic for up to 3+ weeks. That takes us into mid-Feb. The good news is that infections outside China have not yet soared.

But we have to keep in mind just 6 weeks ago, we didn't even have a name for this and there were only 50 infections total.... and the first death didn't occur until just 4 weeks ago on 11 January. In just 4 weeks, we now have 1800 deaths.

So if we are charting this, the infection and death charts are a near straight line spike with potentially dire consequences if it gets a foothold.
 
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Now this is something interesting.

If you're wondering how the 44 infected Americans or others are transported home, check this out. A modular portable bio-containment container with individual seats or beds, loaded into the belly of aircraft and then moved as a unit of infected people...

BY JOSEPH TREVITHICKFEBRUARY 17, 2020

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