Another Cascadia Earthquake? ...

[HB of CJ]

A 4.7 or sosss about 125 km West of Port Hardy about 10 km deep. North end of fault.

That is all.

 

[Rickenbacher39]

If a big one, by that, the Big One oft predicted, oft feared to be 9 Richter Scale; strikes, how overwhelmed would the PNW medical communities be, considering Covid-19 as well?

I don't think the medical communities would be overwhelmed unless we also
had a simultaneous nuclear strike from N. Korea and a locust invasion.

 

[GWS]

If a big one, by that, the Big One oft predicted, oft feared to be 9 Richter Scale; strikes, how overwhelmed would the PNW medical communities be, considering Covid-19 as well?

I don't think the medical communities would be overwhelmed unless we also
had a simultaneous nuclear strike from N. Korea and a locust invasion.

I disagree I attended a seminar on the BIG one last year and if the geologists and engineers there are to be believed, that 9.0 would shift Portland and Vancouver 36 feet to the west
I'm not sure how well hospitals etc would hold up to that kind of stress. Then add all the brick homes and buildings in the area that will most likely collapse Then add that the I-5 Bridge will be in the river and the 205 Bridge may survive but will need inspection and repairs before it can be used. That statement applies to the hospitals as well. Even if they are still standing after that 9.0, they aren't going to be usable until they get inspected and cleared for use. If they're not standing then hell is upon us because everyone, doctors, nurses, staff and patients will need to be dug out and taken care of. That would mean a lot of medical professionals will need medical help instead of providing it. Getting doctors and supplies in from other areas will take time.
Injured people can't wait for that so imagine triage centers in football fields,parking lots and other open spaces, away from damaged, possibly failing structures. And lots more injured people stuck where they are either due to lack of transportation or worse, being trapped.
So yeah. I think the medical services will be massively disrupted and overwhelmed. Having PDX will help Portland, assuming the runways are serviceable or can be made serviceable quickly so relief supplies and medicos can be flown in. Getting supplies etc. across the river in quantity will be problematic for Vancouver with both bridges closed or collapsed

This is why, especially for those of us in the Couve, you need to have three (3) weeks of food, water and meds in your emergency stash

 

[Camelfilter]

I disagree I attended a seminar on the BIG one last year and if the geologists and engineers there are to be believed, that 9.0 would shift Portland and Vancouver 36 feet to the west
I'm not sure how well hospitals etc would hold up to that kind of stress. Then add all the brick homes and buildings in the area that will most likely collapse Then add that the I-5 Bridge will be in the river and the 205 Bridge may survive but will need inspection and repairs before it can be used. That statement applies to the hospitals as well. Even if they are still standing after that 9.0, they aren't going to be usable until they get inspected and cleared for use. If they're not standing then hell is upon us because everyone, doctors, nurses, staff and patients will need to be dug out and taken care of. That would mean a lot of medical professionals will need medical help instead of providing it. Getting doctors and supplies in from other areas will take time.
Injured people can't wait for that so imagine triage centers in football fields,parking lots and other open spaces, away from damaged, possibly failing structures. And lots more injured people stuck where they are either due to lack of transportation or worse, being trapped.
So yeah. I think the medical services will be massively disrupted and overwhelmed. Having PDX will help Portland, assuming the runways are serviceable or can be made serviceable quickly so relief supplies and medicos can be flown in. Getting supplies etc. across the river in quantity will be problematic for Vancouver with both bridges closed or collapsed

This is why, especially for those of us in the Couve, you need to have three (3) weeks of food, water and meds in your emergency stash

I thought I read in one of the Cascadia event reports that all Western Oregon & Western Washington flight lines would be disabled to fixed wing aircraft north of Medford.

Mind, it's a recollection only, so there's that.

Even if true, would obviously be dependent upon how "bad" the "big one" was, and how far along it ran...

 

[CamoDeafie]

I thought I read in one of the Cascadia event reports that all Western Oregon & Western Washington flight lines would be disabled to fixed wing aircraft north of Medford.

Mind, it's a recollection only, so there's that.

Even if true, would obviously be dependent upon how "bad" the "big one" was, and how far along it ran...

Compounding that problem is the fact that PDX is 30' above sea level, and next to the Columbia river

 

[Ura-Ki]

I thought I read in one of the Cascadia event reports that all Western Oregon & Western Washington flight lines would be disabled to fixed wing aircraft north of Medford.

Mind, it's a recollection only, so there's that.

Even if true, would obviously be dependent upon how "bad" the "big one" was, and how far along it ran...

Salem (SLE) is 214' Feet above sea level, Aurora (KUAO ) is 200' feet above sea level, Portland (ICAO) is only 30 feet! Astoria (KAST) is only 15' feet above sea level!
Most models state anything above 70 feet or more then 13 miles inland "Should" be safe, But, Who really knows, models are only a rough idea of what could happen!
Conversly, Sea-Tac (KSEA) is 433' Feet above sea level!

 

[SkeetAt40Below]

Just a prediction, one of thousands, but I lived in SF during the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989. Most widespread damage will come from buildings slipping off their foundations and breaking natural gas lines, causing thousands of fires- the quake will break municipal water lines, making firefighting impossible. The number of wood structures here, compared to California, will make it worse.
Moral of the story? Make sure your supplies don't burn in the garage if prepping is your plan.

 

[Camelfilter]

Salem (SLE) is 214' Feet above sea level, Aurora (KUAO ) is 200' feet above sea level, Portland (ICAO) is only 30 feet! Astoria (KAST) is only 15' feet above sea level!
Most models state anything above 70 feet or more then 13 miles inland "Should" be safe, But, Who really knows, models are only a rough idea of what could happen!
Conversly, Sea-Tac (KSEA) is 433' Feet above sea level!

I "think" the report was stating that the subduction earthquake could cause severe enough damage to the runways & such though.

With military support, would likely be repairable I'd imagine.

Just the timeframe added on to do so, delaying flown in support.

The report I'm thinking on had severe damage on in from the coast to all along the I5 corridor N of Roseburg. Not direct damage due to Tsunami, mind, but from earthquake. The coast was another "add on" disaster.

 

[Ura-Ki]

I "think" the report was stating that the subduction earthquake could cause severe enough damage to the runways & such though.

With military support, would likely be repairable I'd imagine.

Just the timeframe added on to do so, delaying flown in support.

The report I'm thinking on had severe damage on in from the coast to all along the I5 corridor N of Roseburg. Not direct damage due to Tsunami, mind, but from earthquake. The coast was another "add on" disaster.

I only need about 100 feet at max take off weight and have a 880 pound useful load on the current plane, and the new one should almost double the useful load while still only needing that same 100 feet! We have a pretty big Army National Guard Aviation unit here, and they are the heavy/mountain rescue units, so getting them back on line would be paramount! I know of around 80 or so fixed wing pilots with good STOL capable birds and we have a contingency plan to set up operations into tight areas with minimal support and we don't need paved or even smooth runways! We also have CERT training and arrangements with the National Guard and Coast Guard to step up and provide flight services as needed, only requiring fuel and basic rations and a place to take off and land!

 

[ma96782]

A couple of months ago I increased my home owner's coverage to include "Earthquakes Ins." Thanks for the thread. I just hope the insurance company has enough money for everyone. LOL.

Aloha, Mark

 

[CamoDeafie]

I only need about 100 feet at max take off weight and have a 880 pound useful load on the current plane, and the new one should almost double the useful load while still only needing that same 100 feet! We have a pretty big Army National Guard Aviation unit here, and they are the heavy/mountain rescue units, so getting them back on line would be paramount! I know of around 80 or so fixed wing pilots with good STOL capable birds and we have a contingency plan to set up operations into tight areas with minimal support and we don't need paved or even smooth runways! We also have CERT training and arrangements with the National Guard and Coast Guard to step up and provide flight services as needed, only requiring fuel and basic rations and a place to take off and land!

Know enough people with Cierva style tractor autogyros? those could be far more useful...

 

[Ura-Ki]

Naw, I got plenty of friends that can do this in a fixed wing!

 

[Raidingtime]

A couple of months ago I increased my home owner's coverage to include "Earthquakes Ins." Thanks for the thread. I just hope the insurance company has enough money for everyone. LOL.

Aloha, Mark

how much did that run you?

 

[GWS]

I pay about $265 a year here in Vancouver
About a third of what it would have cost in the PRK

 

[HB of CJ]

South end of the Cascadia. A 5.5 about 250 km West of Ferndale CA. About 10 km deep. I felt nothing here in Cave Junction.

That is all.

 

[HB of CJ]

Two, (2) or three, (3) more kinda small dinky ones just about in the same place as on 18 May, 2020. South end of fault off the CA coast.

That is all.

 

[P7M13]

I disagree I attended a seminar on the BIG one last year and if the geologists and engineers there are to be believed, that 9.0 would shift Portland and Vancouver 36 feet to the west

The key is the acceleration. I would bet the majority of that 36' will happen in sub 1 second.
Bigger problem is the motion will be both horizontal and vertical.

OHSU is built on top of a huge fault, as well as Goose Hollow, all of vista ridge and Forest Park, all the way down to OC. Yes those mansions on the river in Lake O will go a sliding...
Emmanuel is on the other, stable half of that same fault line, the river and cesspool of downtown between them.
Betcha money downtown will experience solifluction, liquefying the swamp that it's built upon.

It'll be fun!

 

[ma96782]

how much did that run you?

IIRC, it was an increase of about $300 (or so) per year.

Aloha, Mark

 

[Lazyfaire]

Speaking of hospitals and injured people, with a 9.0 I would expect that many overpasses and tunnels would be down. Light and telephone poles would also be down besides week structures. Transportation to hospital triage areas would be impacted for a while (days+). Ambulances and other emergency equipment also. And getting nurses and doctors to them would also be a problem. Not to mention food, fuel and communication lines would also be disrupted. I do not take the possibilities lightly. I think that it will be worse than we imagine. At least I would prefer to be wrong and over worry, than right and not be prepared.

 

[HB of CJ]

22 May, 2020. A 5.2 or so about 150 km W of Port Hardy. 10 km deep. Interesting that there has been two, (2) significant quakes on the Cascadia; one at the N. end; one on the S. end.

That is all.