Cascadia: The Earthquake that will Destroy Westcoast America

[Tony617]

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[2506]

I'm just waiting over here in Eastern Washington for my place to become oceanfront property.

 

[Cerberus Group]

I'm just waiting over here in Eastern Washington for my place to become oceanfront property.

Me too!

 

[P7M13]

Produced in 2017.
I guess I'm living on borrowed time.
Might as well buy a lottery ticket.....

 

[Provincial]

Buildings built before 1995 will fail in the earthquake.

The oldest buildings at Reed College in Portland were some of the first built with reinforced concrete. At that time, the engineers were very conservative about the strength of this new type of construction. In the 1970's, an engineering student reviewed the design of these buildings and found them quite strong. His summation was "you can set the Hiroshima atom bomb off 100 yards in front of Eliot Hall, and it will succeed in tipping it on its side, but still intact."

 

[Alexx1401]

Been hearing about this all my life here. We do prep for a good shake, the kind that will make things miserable for a while. As long as the home does not fall down we are good. What will be fun to watch is the people who have no preparation and it takes days for gov to get here to help. The big cites would be a place to NOT be. The way things are going in Seattle and Potland these days a good shake may be the only way to flush that giant toilet.

 

[2506]

Buildings built before 1995 will fail in the earthquake.

An architect friend said the same thing, but used the word "liquify" instead of fall.

 

[Provincial]

I was visiting with Oregon Department of Geology guys at a Christmas party years ago. The talk turned to the Cascadia earthquake. They said it would be devastating, with many buildings demolished. Summer would be bad, with fires possibly out of control.

I commented that I thought that much of the Willamette Valley would be worse off in Winter, with the soils saturated. This sent a shudder through the geologists, with all of them referring to "liquification" and pointing out that much of the cities and infrastructure were built on alluvial soils/gravels. Soak these with 100% of their water capacity, then shake, and you get the same effect as putting dry sand in a blender, adding water until it reaches the top of the sand, and turning on the blender.

 

[Alexx1401]

An architect friend said the same thing, but used the word "liquify" instead of fall.

When you watch video of real good shakes that is a very good description of what happens. It is amazing to watch as the ground and building do suddenly become almost like fluid.

 

[JohnnyMac]

The way things are going in Seattle and Potland these days a good shake may be the only way to flush that giant toilet.

Problem is....that giant toilet flushes out to other places. I don't want any of those turds landing in my neck of the woods.

 

[Alexx1401]

Problem is....that giant toilet flushes out to other places. I don't want any of those turds landing in my neck of the woods.

Maybe if we can get it to wash out to sea it can float off to some other country?

 

[NeoBlackdog]

Maybe if we can get it to wash out to sea it can float off to some other country?

Nah. Then you'd have the EPA crawling up your butt for releasing all that untreated sewage into the ocean.
The best alternative that I see is if the ground just opens up and swallows the whole mess.

 

[Stomper]

Problem is....that giant toilet flushes out to other places. I don't want any of those turds landing in my neck of the woods.

Maybe if we can get it to wash out to sea it can float off to some other country?

Since this is the Northern hemisphere and toilets flush clockwise, build clockwise barriers to deflect the turds around you… if you build counterclockwise it'll just scoop 'em up.

 

[RX-79G]

Earthquakes, like climates and viruses, don't exist.

 

[coltemp]

Buildings built before 1995 will fail in the earthquake.

The oldest buildings at Reed College in Portland were some of the first built with reinforced concrete. At that time, the engineers were very conservative about the strength of this new type of construction. In the 1970's, an engineering student reviewed the design of these buildings and found them quite strong. His summation was "you can set the Hiroshima atom bomb off 100 yards in front of Eliot Hall, and it will succeed in tipping it on its side, but still intact."

That right there makes me question how much of an engineer he is.

We have plenty of examples from California and Japan about what can happen in a large earthquake. I know I was in CA for the Loma Prieta. The funny thing is which buildings had damage. Turned out the real issue was the building from 5 to 9 stories were in serious trouble in that one. Taller buildings can through just fine EXCEPT that the tops kept slamming into each other when the buildings were on opposite sides of the wave!

It also has a lot to do with the type of earthquake. Is it a slip slide or upthrust? Certain buildings have a lot less resistance to certain types.

So saying buildings built before 1995 will fall is a LARGE overgeneralization and actually not true. In fact, as Japan has learned many buildings built after 1995 fell down flat years after that. That is why most of the biggest buildings in Japan are built on large shock absorbers to help mitigate ground movement.

Having alternate plans is always the best.

 

[Trapdoor45-70]

FEMA Region X's response plan can be accessed at the post below for a good fictional account that will put you to sleep.

FEMA CSZ Quake plans January 2022

In case anyone is interested in seeing FEMAs emergency plan for a Cascadia quake........... Rather interesting to read their assumptions about post quake conditions, resources, what will be needed for the response. Requires some reading between the lines, for example, they mention DoD resources...

www.northwestfirearms.com

Have been involved in preparing for this event as a volunteer and a professional responder since 2006. Have read a great deal about it and every response plan I've read is unrealistic. It was a large factor in my reason to move from Oregon to Idaho. I asked the experts when I participated in response exercises for their no BS opinion about the resulting damage and the response; everyone said the plans are unrealistic, the damage and fatalities will be greater the estimates and it will take an unprecedented national effort that will dwarf any previous response.

And the economic impact will be massive, especially in the agricultural sector.

According to everything I've read the Cascadia quake will be at or near 9 on the earthquake scale, similar to the 1964 Alaska or the 1960 Chile quakes. Estimated shake time is 5 minutes, plus or minus, along an 800 mile crustal plate fault line about 80 miles off shore. Historically, this type of quake happens every 300 to 500 years. The last one was January of 1700.

Some evidence indicates that the subduction zone quake has in the past triggered the San Andres fault. So the impact could be very widespread.

The entire PNW, all three states, will feel the impact, not just west of the Cascades. Liquefaction will devastate many urban areas such as downtown Portland and the area near NW Yeon and the fuel tank storage sites in that part of town. It is likely that the quake will result in a very large environmental disaster with a lot of petroleum products spilling into the Willamette and then downstream to the mouth of the Columbia.

It's going to be very bad with transportation crippled, potable water and sewer damaged as well as energy for heat, lights, hospitals, etc., unavailable. Many areas, communities will be isolated with bridges and overpasses destroyed or damaged, airports out of service and potential damage to one or more of the dams on the Columbia.

It's a challenging disaster to prepare for in part because the length of time before assistance arrives may be very lengthy; months, possibly/likely many months.

 

[MikeGMU108]

3-500 years- so basically we have no clue when it will happen....

 

[MikeGMU108]

about 275 east Of cascadia fault and about 350 west of yellowstone volcano, I have a ringside seat for both...

 

[Longwalkhome]

Not saying it won't happen but in the last 71 years of living in Oregon I have only felt one small earthquake.

I believe the west coast area will have more volcano troubles than earthquakes. Just a guess of course.

 

[Alexx1401]

FEMA Region X's response plan can be accessed at the post below for a good fictional account that will put you to sleep.

FEMA CSZ Quake plans January 2022

In case anyone is interested in seeing FEMAs emergency plan for a Cascadia quake........... Rather interesting to read their assumptions about post quake conditions, resources, what will be needed for the response. Requires some reading between the lines, for example, they mention DoD resources...

www.northwestfirearms.com

Have been involved in preparing for this event as a volunteer and a professional responder since 2006. Have read a great deal about it and every response plan I've read is unrealistic. It was a large factor in my reason to move from Oregon to Idaho. I asked the experts when I participated in response exercises for their no BS opinion about the resulting damage and the response; everyone said the plans are unrealistic, the damage and fatalities will be greater the estimates and it will take an unprecedented national effort that will dwarf any previous response.

And the economic impact will be massive, especially in the agricultural sector.

According to everything I've read the Cascadia quake will be at or near 9 on the earthquake scale, similar to the 1964 Alaska or the 1960 Chile quakes. Estimated shake time is 5 minutes, plus or minus, along an 800 mile crustal plate fault line about 80 miles off shore. Historically, this type of quake happens every 300 to 500 years. The last one was January of 1700.

Some evidence indicates that the subduction zone quake has in the past triggered the San Andres fault. So the impact could be very widespread.

The entire PNW, all three states, will feel the impact, not just west of the Cascades. Liquefaction will devastate many urban areas such as downtown Portland and the area near NW Yeon and the fuel tank storage sites in that part of town. It is likely that the quake will result in a very large environmental disaster with a lot of petroleum products spilling into the Willamette and then downstream to the mouth of the Columbia.

It's going to be very bad with transportation crippled, potable water and sewer damaged as well as energy for heat, lights, hospitals, etc., unavailable. Many areas, communities will be isolated with bridges and overpasses destroyed or damaged, airports out of service and potential damage to one or more of the dams on the Columbia.

It's a challenging disaster to prepare for in part because the length of time before assistance arrives may be very lengthy; months, possibly/likely many months.

No problem at all. We can just print a LOT of money and toss cash at everyone.