What Is Your Market Entry Point for Dow or S&P?

[ma96782]

IMHO.....

Real estate investing is fine for some. But, also plan for what happens.....when your renters refuse to pay.

I only have one property. I live on/in it. I like it that way.

IF, there is a recession and people don't work/lose their jobs.... How will they pay for their rents or mortgages? A recession is/will be ugly. Then, remember the last time? Rrrright...... some people, simply walked away from their obligations (never having to pay it back) and some had to be forcibly evicted (at the landlord's expense). Call it as, being protected by the Government. Whatever.....just remember that the past has a funny way of repeating itself.

BTW.....local governments in CA were recently considering eliminating the tax write off for home mortgages on 2nd homes. Attacking the rich. But, isn't that the trend?

Proposed law would end tax break for second homes

Not that "investors" with their business tax write-offs will care. Or maybe, those who use their 2nd "vacation" properties as Air BnBs?

Aloha, Mark

 

[arakboss]

I am tempted to buy a little more today but after reading this I think I will wait: Goldman says the bull market will end soon with stocks dropping another 15%

If congress actually looks like they might pass some near term fiscal stimulus stuff we'll probably see a bounce but I expect we'll go down some more before it stabilizes. I don't want to try and pick the bottom and miss out so if we see another big down day tomorrow I will buy another share of SPY. They call me Big Spender.

 

[USMC1911]

IMHO.....

Real estate investing is fine for some. But, also plan for what happens.....when your renters refuse to pay.

I only have one property. I live on/in it. I like it that way.

IF, there is a recession and people don't work/lose their jobs.... How will they pay for their rents or mortgages? A recession is/will be ugly. Then, remember the last time? Rrrright...... some people, simply walked away from their obligations (never having to pay it back) and some had to be forcibly evicted (at the landlord's expense). Call it as, being protected by the Government. Whatever.....just remember that the past has a funny way of repeating itself.

BTW.....local governments in CA were recently considering eliminating the tax write off for home mortgages on 2nd homes. Attacking the rich. But, isn't that the trend?

Proposed law would end tax break for second homes

Not that "investors" with their business tax write-offs will care. Or maybe, those who use their 2nd "vacation" properties as Air BnBs?

Aloha, Mark

One of the reasons I went with comercial properties. A business has all the reasons you do to keep things looking nice and have the upkeep that is necessary to run a successful business. In the 10 or so years been doing it not a problem yet. Having a lawyer that has a background in real estate draft the lease agreement was money well spent. He had stuff that really covered my but that most, myself included wouldn't of even thought of.

 

[arakboss]

Almost 1600 down, buy the dip and sell the rally?

Dow drops 1,400 points and tumbles into a bear market, down 20% from last month's record close

Stocks plummeted in another volatile session as Wall Street worried about talks over a fiscal stimulus package aimed at curbing slower growth.

www.cnbc.com

 

[USMC1911]

Almost 1600 down, buy the dip and sell the rally?

If the market looks like it gonna have a decent day I will be shorting the TVIX again. I will also be looking into the action on oil as imo its pretty close to the bottom. If Russia or SA can agree to something some of the leverage etf's can really produce. As far as getting back in with a long position? Not sure this ride is even close to over.

 

[The Heretic]

I am tempted to buy a little more today but after reading this I think I will wait: Goldman says the bull market will end soon with stocks dropping another 15%

So by my math we are down about 20% from when I backed out into Bonds in December.

I think it will bottom out in another couple of weeks. Maybe 35-40% down. Then I will jump back in. Right now I am down about 6% (between my 401K, IRA and Roth IRA). I will probably be down about 10% but if I am patient, I figure when the market comes back to its previous level, I will be about 15-30% up over what I had before.

 

[arakboss]

Looks like another bad day on tap for tomorrow:

Dow plunges 10% amid coronavirus fears for its worst day since the 1987 market crash

Stocks plummeted after Trump and the Fed failed to quell concerns over a possible economic slowdown stemming from the coronavirus.

www.cnbc.com

 

[The Heretic]

Looks like another bad day on tap for tomorrow:

Dow plunges 10% amid coronavirus fears for its worst day since the 1987 market crash

Stocks plummeted after Trump and the Fed failed to quell concerns over a possible economic slowdown stemming from the coronavirus.

www.cnbc.com

We'll see. Remember, it is mostly algorithms that are doing the trading, so the market is going to bounce around, up and down from day to day. Overall though, on average, the trend is down.

 

[CoastRange57]

Almost 1600 down, buy the dip and sell the rally?

Dow drops 1,400 points and tumbles into a bear market, down 20% from last month's record close

Stocks plummeted in another volatile session as Wall Street worried about talks over a fiscal stimulus package aimed at curbing slower growth.

www.cnbc.com

I held tight today, I have a feeling we are not at bottom yet. I may move towards some real estate again, but that lag takes a while to follow the market, and here in my local area in Central Oregon, the real estate I look for had became somewhat over valued over the last 2 years. I would have to see some pretty reasonable downward moves on the price, and I don't see that happening any time soon.

With the travel bans Trump put in place today, and the oil pricing I may look at some airline stocks for a bump potential. They are all going to be spending a lot to buy fuel futures, but there could be a very good upside there with the right one. I think most of them are going to be down, but the ones I like don't have huge international exposure. (Alaska Air). Their profits could be up in a year after they get kicked a bit on the international markets.

I would like to see a slow steady climb back, but in an election year the markets can be fickle. We could be close to a bear market until after the election. I am not good enough at this to take a daily dose of this kind of uncertainty and try and second guess it.

 

[CoastRange57]

Remember, it is mostly algorithms that are doing the trading,

Pretty much. I set some limits a while ago on some real outlandish potential buys that would add to my existing positions and dollar average it out real well. So I guess even us small time investors can affect those moves if enough do the same.

 

[RedRover]

To answer the OP...

My advice would be to not ask for stock advice on an internet forum...

Despite all of those so eager to boast about their wins...90% of those that 'day trade' (enticed by the idea of getting rich quick) lose money.

Slow and steady wins the race. The market can stay irrational longer than one can remain solvent.

'Timing tops & bottoms' has more to do with luck than anything else....So if one wants to ride 'lady luck' (until she runs out), it'd be better to run to Vegas and put it all on red or black and try to win 5x in a row - 'Cause that's about how many times one would have to guess the exact top and bottom to beat the investor that rode the ups and downs through the long haul of a lifetime of earnings/retirement savings.

 

[arakboss]

To answer the OP...

My advice would be to not ask for stock advice on an internet forum...

Despite all of those so eager to boast about their wins...90% of those that 'day trade' (enticed by the idea of getting rich quick) lose money.

Slow and steady wins the race. The market can stay irrational longer than one can remain solvent.

'Timing tops & bottoms' has more to do with luck than anything else....So if one wants to ride 'lady luck' (until she runs out), it'd be better to run to Vegas and put it all on red or black and try to win 5x in a row - 'Cause that's about how many times one would have to guess the exact top and bottom to beat the investor that rode the ups and downs through the long haul of a lifetime of earnings/retirement savings.

Good advice.

For those that are hunkering down financially and not participating in normal consumer spending, consider investing the money that you save from going out and about. It will help stabilize the markets and eventually provide you a nice ROI which you can spend later on.

 

[Pandaz3]

I am not very rich, but I put $5000 last week and another $5000 this week, hope I'm in the buy low, sell high group. Came out of my savings account.

 

[45 for me]

Not a Dow or S&P value for me. It's the Coronavirus scare. When that starts look like there is and end to it, I will move to a higher equity balance. After the yield curve inversion last year, I waited for a high point and moved to about about 50% of my 401k and brokerage accounts to bonds or just interest bearing accounts. Even that was pretty extreme for someone not retiring for a while. Now of course, would have been nice if it was more, but I am not a market player and usually do long term index funds. When the scare starts looking over, I will begin to move back to my normal 80/10/10 equity, reits, and bonds slowly, regardless of ups or downs after I make that decision (barring another catastrophe of course). No telling how far its going to drop between now and then.

Edit: Although to clarify, I haven't sold anything this year and don't have any plans to yet, but like I said, I was already conservative going in. So that is a mild vote for us being at least back up to this level relatively soon. Who knows? Like the saying goes, if you don't know who the sucker at the table is, it's you. I don't delude myself that I can out time wall street insider trading fund manager creeps, and I'm not even sure they can, so slow and steady on low expense ratio index funds.

 

[georgepittenger]

To answer the OP...

My advice would be to not ask for stock advice on an internet forum...

Despite all of those so eager to boast about their wins...90% of those that 'day trade' (enticed by the idea of getting rich quick) lose money.

Slow and steady wins the race. The market can stay irrational longer than one can remain solvent.

'Timing tops & bottoms' has more to do with luck than anything else....So if one wants to ride 'lady luck' (until she runs out), it'd be better to run to Vegas and put it all on red or black and try to win 5x in a row - 'Cause that's about how many times one would have to guess the exact top and bottom to beat the investor that rode the ups and downs through the long haul of a lifetime of earnings/retirement savings.

Some good points here for sure .

I played the daily market for about 9 months pretty seriously some years ago .
I consider myself fortunate in coming out of that 'game' with a small profit .
I spent 3-4 hrs a day , agonized over the losses & came to a simple realization .
It's almost impossible for an individual investor to make $ in the market . The big guys have the best info and manipulate the market to their advantage , trading in milliseconds .

After that I stuck to strictly dividend paying stocks and l live comfortably off the payments .

This current market chaos is a 10 year event ( or so ) . It's a terrific buying opportunity if you have cash . And I do , mucho .

So I plan to buy starting at a 35% drop from the highs . We are getting close to that now . I will ladder buy , buy some at -35% , and continue buying as I anticipate it dropping somewhere between 40 and 50 % .

In the 2008/2009 fiasco the market dropped 50% over approx. 18 months .

I believe this current situation will drop faster AND recover faster than that .

My take , don't invest any $ that you might need within 18 months and buy blue chippers .

Good luck to the risk takers . Honestly , it's about the game for me more than the profits .


George

 

[tractor guy]

I have heard the saying that a lot of what drives the market is; Fear and Greed. Back in '08-'09 if you got out, when did you get back in and would you have been better off staying in ? Now, are we going through the same fear and greed cycle today and for the next 2-3 year until a drug is discovered, tested and distributed ? Quote from JP Getty; "When people are selling you buy and when people are buying you sell". If you made a decision and can't sleep then just maybe you didn't make the right decision for you.

 

[arakboss]

Some good points here for sure .

I played the daily market for about 9 months pretty seriously some years ago .
I consider myself fortunate in coming out of that 'game' with a small profit .
I spent 3-4 hrs a day , agonized over the losses & came to a simple realization .
It's almost impossible for an individual investor to make $ in the market . The big guys have the best info and manipulate the market to their advantage , trading in milliseconds .

After that I stuck to strictly dividend paying stocks and l live comfortably off the payments .

This current market chaos is a 10 year event ( or so ) . It's a terrific buying opportunity if you have cash . And I do , mucho .

So I plan to buy starting at a 35% drop from the highs . We are getting close to that now . I will ladder buy , buy some at -35% , and continue buying as I anticipate it dropping somewhere between 40 and 50 % .

In the 2008/2009 fiasco the market dropped 50% over approx. 18 months .

I believe this current situation will drop faster AND recover faster than that .

My take , don't invest any $ that you might need within 18 months and buy blue chippers .

Good luck to the risk takers . Honestly , it's about the game for me more than the profits .


George

There are lots of good dividend paying stocks out there right now but I am worried that we will soon see a lot of the dividends being cut.

 

[WaGuy52]

TIming the market doesn't work for anyone. I'm in and have been for a long time. Warren Buffet says you don't have your house appraised every day, you live in it for the long term. Market is the same way.
That being said, I watch gold/silver and buy when down - physical metal, not stock in a company.

If you have cash on the sidelines waiting to get back in to the market. What level on the Dow or S&P are you looking for as your entry point?

Looks like it could be another down day today.

 

[Member 38805]

I invested in the stock market for most of my adult life. Spent 30 years putting monies into it towards retirement. But 5 years before I retired I moved everything out of the stock market and into guaranteed interest investments. I've been in those over the last 15 years. They certainly haven't made me the gains I saw in the stock market, but also haven't lost a cent either.

 

[zofoman]

Warren Buffet says you don't have your house appraised every day, you live in it for the long term.

Mr. Buffet has been correct with his investment strategies ever since he started getting into it almost 80 years ago. He's seen more market changes in those years for longer than most investors have been alive. He is the Oracle.

In this market, you have to remember....for every seller, there is a buyer. Stock sell orders will sit there unfulfilled until someone buys it. So, as the markets go down, some folks are buying on the downside and dollar cost averaging their portfolio. So, when the market comes back....money will be made (some of it sizeable). The markets have always recovered after any downturn in history. One just needs to stomach the ride one more time and be patient. Today, I see opportunity.....just like 1987 & 2008.