What Is Your Market Entry Point for Dow or S&P?

The Heretic

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S&P 2700, which is 20% off the high of 3380. This one is difficult to call as no one knows the future spread of the CV virus or the economic damage it will cause over at least the next quarter.
This. I am down only about 2% (from what I had before the correction) because I swapped into 80/20 bonds in December for two of my three retirement accounts, which is about 90% of my retirement funds. For me, it has to be down more than 10% and stay there for at least few days because jumping back in doesn't happen overnight with my IRAs. If I had the time and cash to play the market, I would be doing day trading right now - down 5%, then up 5% the next day, rinse and repeat - if this keeps up a lot of day traders are making a nice chunk of change.
 
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This. I am down only about 2% (from what I had before the correction) because I swapped into 80/20 bonds in December for two of my three retirement accounts, which is about 90% of my retirement funds. For me, it has to be down more than 10% and stay there for at least few days because jumping back in doesn't happen overnight with my IRAs. If I had the time and cash to play the market, I would be doing day trading right now - down 5%, then up 5% the next day, rinse and repeat - if this keeps up a lot of day traders are making a nice chunk of change.
When do or do you feel jobs and real estate will take a dump next?
 
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A

arakboss

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When do or do you feel jobs and real estate will take a dump next?
Jobs: maybe before election

Real Estate: Not anytime soon. CNBC had a segment yesterday that foreign buyers are scooping up US real estate again. With mortgage rates as low as they are and supply limited as it is real estate will likely be solid for some time imho
 
I enjoyed small time investing NYSE 80s thru 911. Along the way made a few bucks, missed making the actual play on some real winners I had identified early; somehow along the way lost interest in the demands of the game. Haven't held stock in 20 years.
 

bbbass

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I'm one of those people that hasn't the discipline to stay on top of trading. So, I'm a "buy and hold" kind of guy that doesn't tend to jump in and out. IMO, most people tend to do better averaging their purchases over time... that way they buy at various times when the market is both up/down and at diff levels. If you hold onto those purchases, the value increases over long periods of time and what you paid for them averages into a relatively safe level of earning.

People that try to time the market usually fail.

I know this is not helpful to your purposes. Just saying not to try to get too cute and wind up outsmarting yourself.
 

parallax

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I’ve been very lucky so far. No loss yet. I’m. Not only looking at numbers. But more about. Waiting till the election and all that it will bring Seems like the markets are all fed by fear or hope I’m. Also sitting on the side lines for awhile till things calm down It’s interesting that the. Feds keep lowering the interest rate. in what is supposed to be the best economy im decades Do they know something that the rest of us don’t?
I suppose the Virus. Has shut down some industries. Like travel. Vacations. Etc. It’s. Been a wild ride this week on the markets
 
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Anyone remember back when the Dow hit 10k? There was amazement, dancing in the streets, and babies being sacrificed to Moloch in celebration... :rolleyes:
I remember when everyone said it will NEVER hit 10K :D. Lets hope it doesn't again:eek:. Things will go back up before ya know it. I'm buying now.
 

bbbass

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I’ve been very lucky so far. No loss yet.
It's only a loss when you sell out. Paper losses mean nothing!! You could be down 20% on paper today, then up 50% in two years!!!

I've survived many down markets and my portfolio is way up after 40yrs in the market. Wait it out!!! If investing for retirement, value doesn't matter until one needs the funds as income. The caveat would be to get out of individually loser funds/stocks and trade into better funds/stocks. I know that I suck at picking individual stocks (having lost huge amounts in the tech boom/bust), so I stay in aggressive funds (those people are smarter and more on top of it than me), and index funds and bond funds for balance. I might move the mix around at times, that's it.
 
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AMT

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Remember the Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd movie "Trading Places"? Eddie Murphy explaining the pork belly market to the 2 brothers. I've taken that mentality a little broader and have been doing ok.

Bare with me. This will make sense........

The market goes in cycles. Around the holiday's, usually starting in mid/late Oct. people are getting "ready" for Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Money is flowing. The market starts to climb.

It stays pretty good up to Thanksgiving, then really starts to climb. Think Black Friday sales and Christmas right around the corner. Money is seriously flowing.

Up to, and for about 2-3 weeks after Jan. 1, the market is doing good. Everyone is spending the gift cards they got.

About Feb. thru mid-May the market goes down. Nothing happening during those months. Spring Break in April is so short, that you'd better be on top of the market to beat the rise, and sell high before it starts to taper off after the break. Usually the market doesn't care about Spring Break though.

Around mid-May people are making vacation plans for Summer, once school lets out. A little money starts moving (airline tickets, camping reservations, hotel reservations, etc.). Market starts to go up.

Mid-June the market starts going back up fairly ok. It is Summer and money is flowing.

August and Sept. may see another rise as people are finishing the Summer activities. One last "push" for fun. Then folks start to buy/prepare for the next school year. School clothes, supplies, etc. Once school starts, you'll see a downturn in the market.

Sept. to mid-October is fairly low market. Come Mid-Oct., see above and cycle starts all over.

Election time, and just before the final voting, is anyone's guess.

By low and sell high!

Sorry for being so long winded.
 

Mikej

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  • Outdoor Cleanup - 2015
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Mom and Dad were in the market with Morgan Stanley. When mom passed in Feb 2018 everything in trust was split between brother and I. I kept their Morgan Stanley "Guy" in Utah because they'd been with him for 23 years or so. It's been pretty upsetting to see half the value gained in the last 11 months disappearing in the last several weeks, with no end in sight.
 

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