What Is Your Market Entry Point for Dow or S&P?

[parallax]

Time to jump back in?
or wait another week
Maybe time to buy the meat and potatoes stocks,
Walmart
Costco
Home depot
Amazon
Etc

 

[bbbass]

Which is the old-time method of equity investment. And this is not a criticism. Used to be, people bought equities for the income they threw off. Current mind-set is to buy equities for quick appreciation, dividends are just a bonus. Problem in any down-turn is that dividends have a way of drying up, at least temporarily.

I gave you 1/2 a "like" for most of your commentary. Not gonna take issue with you tho, as it's political and a matter of opinion.

On this subject: Remember "Growth and Income" investors? Mostly Blue Chip stocks or medium sized companies with some good dividends and some possibility for growth. My wife and I are fund investors, not being good at picking stocks. I invest for aggressive appreciation and don't care about the small dividends I get. She invests for a moderate level of appreciation and a good level of dividends. Hers makes for a self-balanced investment strategy. I had a longer way to go so I opted for the higher risk funds. I'm retired but won't have mandatory withdrawal for a few more years. Meanwhile, I've consolidated everything into one great fund and it's still doing well.

 

[gmerkt]

I gave you 1/2 a "like"

Hey, half a like is better than a full F-U. Any day.

 

[bbbass]

Hey, half a like is better than a full F-U. Any day.

You're NOT one of the people I would do that to... We may disagree, but you've never behaved disagreeable to me!!!

 

[USMC1911]

Super duper! Good on you!!!

By way of comparison, I got greedy and jumped out of almost all my real estate, after 40yrs, to invest in the tech boom. But timing was way late. So much better to invest contrarian than to follow the trends. Lost my butt.

However, my former bozz came to this area with money to invest from years of working for Raytheon in Crypto repair. He bought 10 acres in the woods, then invested in older buildings and apts, same as I did. These are not the best real estate to invest because the turnover of tenants tends to be very high. But he held onto his. Worked hard to get them paid off in 10yrs. Now that they are, his income is wonderful... He doesn't need to work but he still runs a biz. But he wines and dines his new wife and they do lots of things that people like me can't do in retirement.

Best wishes for your future!!!

Thank you kind sir! I really have been blessed. Luck and timing play a huge part! Could be on the street tomorrow ya just never know. It's happened to way smarter people then me thats for sure. We all try to make the best decisions and sometime it works sometime not so much.

 

[The Heretic]

Time to jump back in?
or wait another week
Maybe time to buy the meat and potatoes stocks,
Walmart
Costco
Home depot
Amazon
Etc

Depends on what you have to invest. If it is cash then sure, jump in. Buy on the way down. You don't have to wait for the bottom if you have enough to buy all the way down.

All my $ are in IRA retirement funds. My Roth is barely fluctuating - it is mostly bonds. My 'regular' IRA is down about 5% or about half what the market is down. Once it gets down 20% or more below where I was when I got out of the market (mostly) I will start thinking about jumping back in. But I can only do it once (or maybe twice or so) as I am in managed funds so I need to set a target risk profile and then it takes a day or two to switch. So I want to wait and see if it goes way down - like 50% - then I would jump back in.

YMMV. If I didn't have a day job and had some cash that was just sitting there, I would be doing some day trading.

 

[ZigZagZeke]

Well I got 6 years before I stop putting money into the 401K and start taking it out. So I got plenty of time for a big dip in the stock market. My funds are all in a big managed targeted date retirement mutual fund thing. In the latest burb I have currently lost about 5.5% of my total balance. I'm going to be returning to work here soon (I don't work in the winter) and I am seriously thinking about bumping up my contribution to 20% of my gross. House is paid for no car loans etc. time to buy what I can so when it comes back up I am sitting on top. In a few years the program I am in will be moving more and more to Bonds and low risk so I want to pack what I can in now.

If your 401K has a self-managed option that would let you do your own investing you can do much better. That's what I did with mine before I retired. I moved it from a mutual fund paying .5% per year to Apple which was making me 20% per year. I bought 500 shares of Apple for $7500. It has since split 14 for 1 and doubled in value a few times. At $325 those 7000 shares would be a little over $2M if I hadn't been taking money off the table regularly. In reality I've made probably half that. Even at $266 I'm so far ahead it doesn't really matter and Apple will be back above $300 by this time next year. I've been looking at options, specifically Apple $300 LEAPs for next January, but they're still a little too expensive. Apple is definitely a buy right now whenever you think we've reached a bottom or you can begin legging in now. People are not going to stop buying cell phones.

 

[bikemutt]

I've been thinking along the lines of an equity position when this mess bottoms out, seems like some easy money could be made.

Being 100% cash and CDs I have not payed attention to what the real carnage looks like out there.

 

[The Heretic]

I've been thinking along the lines of an equity position when this mess bottoms out, seems like some easy money could be made.

Being 100% cash and CDs I have not payed attention to what the real carnage looks like out there.

If/when you jump in, the key will be to have the ability to be patient and wait for the market to come back from the bottom. It will come back, but it won't be overnight - I might be a few months to a year or two, but it will come back to where it peaked before - or close enough. When it does, making 20-50% on an investment in year or so is a good return.

 

[Bushman]

A very wealthy woman I'm dating in Canada (worth 20+ mil, she also happens to be a venture capital financial advisor) told me the day after the market first tanked that it is my opportunity to buy. I told her it will keep going down and to wait/that I would wait. It has since kept dropping like a ROCK. It will keep spreading and it will get worse until it peaks. The spread is just beginning in the US, give it another month or two.

Meanwhile I'm feverishly trying to cash out refi my rentals AND buying new houses to boot. If only it were that easy though, I can't find a deal to save my life. Everything goes pending in a day and 450-150K over asking in all cash offers, no inspection contingency, 20K earnest money prepaid to keep regardless, etc.

 

[Bushman]

If/when you jump in, the key will be to have the ability to be patient and wait for the market to come back from the bottom. It will come back, but it won't be overnight - I might be a few months to a year or two, but it will come back to where it peaked before - or close enough. When it does, making 20-50% on an investment in year or so is a good return.

Yup. I'm trying to cash out refinance money out of my rentals to use that money to buy more houses rather than cash on hand. When this starts stabilizing I'll use cash on hand to invest in Vanguard/S&P500. Looking forward to massive profits in stocks and real estate from all of this. I love this honestly. People wonder why I've been sitting on cash. This is why, opportunity....

 

[Bushman]

Remember the Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd movie "Trading Places"? Eddie Murphy explaining the pork belly market to the 2 brothers. I've taken that mentality a little broader and have been doing ok.

Bare with me. This will make sense........

The market goes in cycles. Around the holiday's, usually starting in mid/late Oct. people are getting "ready" for Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Money is flowing. The market starts to climb.

It stays pretty good up to Thanksgiving, then really starts to climb. Think Black Friday sales and Christmas right around the corner. Money is seriously flowing.

Up to, and for about 2-3 weeks after Jan. 1, the market is doing good. Everyone is spending the gift cards they got.

About Feb. thru mid-May the market goes down. Nothing happening during those months. Spring Break in April is so short, that you'd better be on top of the market to beat the rise, and sell high before it starts to taper off after the break. Usually the market doesn't care about Spring Break though.

Around mid-May people are making vacation plans for Summer, once school lets out. A little money starts moving (airline tickets, camping reservations, hotel reservations, etc.). Market starts to go up.

Mid-June the market starts going back up fairly ok. It is Summer and money is flowing.

August and Sept. may see another rise as people are finishing the Summer activities. One last "push" for fun. Then folks start to buy/prepare for the next school year. School clothes, supplies, etc. Once school starts, you'll see a downturn in the market.

Sept. to mid-October is fairly low market. Come Mid-Oct., see above and cycle starts all over.

Election time, and just before the final voting, is anyone's guess.

By low and sell high!

Sorry for being so long winded.

They say sell in may and go away. It is true that things slow down after that usually if you are following the broad market. But alas, time in the market will beat timing the market, study after study has proven that...No one can consistently time the market.

 

[bbbass]

A very wealthy woman I'm dating in Canada (worth 20+ mil, she also happens to be a venture capital financial advisor) told me the day after the market first tanked that it is my opportunity to buy. I told her it will keep going down and to wait/that I would wait. It has since kept dropping like a ROCK. It will keep spreading and it will get worse until it peaks. The spread is just beginning in the US, give it another month or two.

Meanwhile I'm feverishly trying to cash out refi my rentals AND buying new houses to boot. If only it were that easy though, I can't find a deal to save my life. Everything goes pending in a day and 450-150K over asking in all cash offers, no inspection contingency, 20K earnest money prepaid to keep regardless, etc.

The wife and I came back from Brookings, after building a house with an ocean view, with money to invest in rental property. Later, we went to Bend which had exactly the kind of market you describe. Also, I started investing in properties in S Calif in 1975 when a property that we paid $19k for had gone up to $75k and we borrowed the equity to buy more. Those investments never went down!!!

What we learned was that it only matters to somehow acquire properties. We've even borrowed against credit cards, flipped the house, then paid off the cards. We tried to find deals, but it turned out that what we paid never mattered... the value ALWAYS went up. (In Bend, we made $50k on a two month holding of a 2yr old 3bd that we paid $250k for. And $100k on a 2yr holding of a 1975 double wide trailer on 1 acre during a time when what we paid was exorbitant in a bidding war. We lost most bidding wars)

We just had to come up with the down and be able to make the payments. Making the payment is the hard part in today's market... people are going negative because their purchases don't pencil out. I don't like that and wouldn't be in the game today as it's too easy to get stuck upside down when your lessees screw you. Must have enough cash on hand to make payments long enough to get them out!!! Capitol is king!!!!

The stock market is the same. It doesn't matter what you pay. Just get in and ride!!! As I said, don't get too cute... 95% of people that play the trading game usually get burned down.

 

[Bushman]

The wife and I came back from Brookings, after building a house with an ocean view, with money to invest in rental property. Later, we went to Bend which had exactly the kind of market you describe. Also, I started investing in properties in S Calif in 1975 when a property that we paid $19k for had gone up to $75k and we borrowed the equity to buy more. Those investments never went down!!!

What we learned was that it only matters to somehow acquire properties. We've even borrowed against credit cards, flipped the house, then paid off the cards. We tried to find deals, but it turned out that what we paid never mattered... the value ALWAYS went up. We just had to come up with the down and be able to make the payments. Making the payment is the hard part in today's market... people are going negative because their purchases don't pencil out. I don't like that and wouldn't be in the game today as it's too easy to get stuck upside down when your lessees screw you. Must have enough cash on hand to make payments long enough to get them out!!! Capitol is king!!!!

The stock market is the same. It doesn't matter what you pay. Just get in and ride!!! As I said, don't get too cute... 95% of people that play the trading game usually get burned down.

Yeah study after study has proven timing the market is a fools game, no one can do it. That said part of a balanced portfolio is non correlating assets and cash. When one asset is down, tax loss harvest, cash out your other positions that went up and buy more of what is down, also use the cash to buy more.

As far as real estate, I recently crunched the numbers of what rentals have done for me and decided to buy more regardless of the values. For me it's about the cash flow. While the equity is nice, the cash flow is really where it is at. That's all I'll say...

 

[bbbass]

As far as real estate, I recently crunched the numbers of what rentals have done for me and decided to buy more regardless of the values. For me it's about the cash flow. While the equity is nice, the cash flow is really where it is at. That's all I'll say...

I salute you! ... Finding a deal with a positive cash flow is really hard today!!! I don't think I could do it in metro or suburban OR/WA. Maybe Idaho, but it's booming fast!! IDK. (I'm not asking you to reveal your secrets )

Here, young people are screaming about high rents. They don't see it from the investor's viewpoint. They just want the gov to step in with rent control or subsidies.

 

[Bushman]

I salute you! ... Finding a deal with a positive cash flow is really hard today!!! I don't think I could do it in metro or suburban OR/WA. Maybe Idaho, but it's booming fast!! IDK. (I'm not asking you to reveal your secrets )

Here, young people are screaming about high rents. They don't see it from the investor's viewpoint. They just want the gov to step in with rent control or subsidies.

Tell me about it!!! I'm actually a licensed realtor as well (just for MLS and suprakeybox access) and I've been putting in offers like crazy and touring houses like crazy for my self and investment properties. There was a duplex yesterday the listing agent called me after I put in my offer. Called me at the end of the day to tell me they got an all cash offer for 50K over asking 20K EM to keep regardless, inspection waived, 10 day close. He said he had some other listings coming up but alas, it's sooooo competitive I'm having a hard time. I usually end up finding one, this is not uncommon. As you know in times like these it can take months to find a place that will cash flow. If it was easy everyone would do it.

In 2017 I did a 1031 exchange and bought 2 new rentals (btw if you ever need a good qualified intermediary, my guy is rock solid, unlike the lawyer in NYC who tried to steal hundreds of thousands from me...tried..... Anyways, I bought those two houses a month apart without ever setting foot in them. 1 mil total. THAT is how competitive it was then and it's getting the same now. Sadly most listings seem to have an offer review period for a multiple offer situation. Can't beat 'em, these are emotional buyers not investors.

 

[Bushman]

I salute you! ... Finding a deal with a positive cash flow is really hard today!!! I don't think I could do it in metro or suburban OR/WA. Maybe Idaho, but it's booming fast!! IDK. (I'm not asking you to reveal your secrets )

Here, young people are screaming about high rents. They don't see it from the investor's viewpoint. They just want the gov to step in with rent control or subsidies.

Also what silicon valley money is doing is very telling. When I was selling one of my houses, the co-founder of a major tech company everyone has heard of put in an offer from SF! His realtor did the walk through. I was shocked though to see a guy worth more than probably everyone on this forum combined buying houses, let alone up here (probably escaping the California investment market). Deal ended up falling through and I sold it to some Microsoft couple a week later but still...

 

[arakboss]

I think we are headed for recession.

 

[PDXbiker]

I think we are headed for recession.

I think you be right.

 

[arakboss]

I think you be right.

Hopefully it's short lived and will provide some good buying opportunities for those with cash on the sidelines.