Good analogy. So using that assume that the 22LR corn is perennial and takes 7-10 years to pay off the seeds.
The seed cost is like the investment in a new production line. A short term bubble won't pay off the production if sales drop once again to pre madness levels. If you have made the decision to gear up/staff up, you'll have to drop prices just to cover overhead and your profits will go down.
Look I'm with you, I'm not sure demand will ever go down based on all of this madness. If it doesn't, I'm sure quite a few ammo manufacturers will be kicking themselves.
Odds are demand will do nothing but go up for 22lr but notice we don't even have imports to help with the demand. Lots of countries make 22lr but it's not getting to us so in my thinking this shortage of 22lr is not due to market forces but to some regulation or oversite. Who knows? Any way I am done with conversation and it has been pleasant talking to you.