Times they are a' changin! .22 on the shelf-

[IronMonster]

So I stopped by the Coastal Farm Store in Auburn on my way home from work, just to see if they had any 62gr 5.56. That was a no go but I got to talkin to the counter guy who was pretty open and friendly. He told me they had sold 600 guns since they put the gun counter in the first of October, which seems pretty good to me. I told him I came in on the grand opening but had not been in since. I said "yep, bought my box of .22 and left, Don't suppose you have any .22 now?" He said "Sure! What are you looking for?" I was like "I have a choice?"

So he had .22 shorts, .22 Longs, and quite a number of .22LR choices. Some CCI Sub Sonic @ $3.79 a box Some Federal Ultra Match for like $4.29 a box. They had some CCI stingers @ 6.99 a box. I think there was actually something else too. Not 2005 prices but not absurd either. He said that they pretty consistently have stock on hand. There is a limit of three boxes per day per kind so its not like the old days but just the fact that he said they consistently have stock I thought was a sign things are headed back to normal.

Another thing I was impressed with is they have 77 gr OTM 5.56 on the shelf $39 for a box of 50. Not to shabby. Not much more than I paid buying a full case.

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[sapper77]

You actually had a choice of .22.................I've never heard of such a thing. Thats fricken great! I have piccked up a few 50 round boxes of the federal match stuff in the last month or so. I was in there today clothes shopping for the kids and thought what the heck, I will go check out the ammo isle. They had one can of the xm855 62gr left so I grabbed it. Nice little suprise for a Monday afternoon

 

[Just Jim]

I don't know exactly the words to use here. I don't think ironic fits that we as a free nation and capitalist to boot are suffering shortages on our store shelves like the commie nations do. How does that happen?

 

[Hook686]

Don't like 'Trickle Down' eh ? Be happy you get some.

 

[Joe13]

That's not the case in the Vancouver portland area...

 

[SOrez]

I was in Beaverton and stopped at a Bi Mart 185th and Farmington picked up a 300rd box CCI mini mags for $19.97. They had them the day before also.

 

[Joe13]

Maybe it's just Vancouver

 

[AMT]

I think it is just Vancouver. Fisherman's (in Delta Park) has had a few different choices a few times when I stopped in. They had 17HMR and 22WM too.

Maybe Vancouver will catch up one day.....

 

[DeanfromOregon]

I don't know exactly the words to use here. I don't think ironic fits that we as a free nation and capitalist to boot are suffering shortages on our store shelves like the commie nations do. How does that happen?

Because the capitalist manufacturers know it's only a short term bubble and would rather run at a very highly profitable full capacity than invest profits into new capacity that will sit idle as soon as stock of any kind returns to the shelves?

 

[IronMonster]

Because the capitalist manufacturers know it's only a short term bubble and would rather run at a very highly profitable full capacity than invest profits into new capacity that will sit idle as soon as stock of any kind returns to the shelves?

It's no more profitable for manufactures than before the bubble. Any sane business man would not invest millions to increase capacity knowing full well the bubble will be over before they could even get new production on line, .22lr is not a cash cow. It's a product that is relatively time consuming to Manufacture on purpose built equipment good for nothing else that sells for a few cents. The simple reason why no ammo company has geared up during the panic is simple, it's would not make money long term.

 

[DeanfromOregon]

It's no more profitable for than manufactures than before the bubble. Any sane buisness man would not invest millions to increase capacity knowing full well the bubble will be over before they could even get new production on line, .22lr is not a cash cow. It's a product that is relatively time consuming to Manufacture on purpose built equipment good for nothing else that sells for a few cents. The simple reason why no ammo company has geared up during the panic is simple, it's would not make money long term.

I agree with you mostly, but while the price manufacturers are charging hasn't gone up they are making more money.

Any business with a production line has fixed costs, and those fixed costs are smaller as a percentage of overall production when production increases. If production goes up with no corresponding decrease in price, profits will go up.

Granted there are variable costs that will increase along with production such as power consumption, maintenance, labor, etc.

Some variable costs such as freight may also go down if you can take advantage of greater economies of scale.

 

[John Gault]

My local Bimart in Sandy SUCKS. Never see any .22 or powders on the shelf.

 

[IronMonster]

While I would not argue that, you are making the assumption that production has gone up. I suspect that all of the .22 manufacturing lines in the country where running at close to capacity before the panic. Most of the .22 plants are specific to .22, they might be owned by larger outfits that make other ammo but the .22 operation is a stand alone manufacturing line. How many manufacturing operations could survive long operating at 50% capacity? Not many. When you manufacture something you make all that you can until such time there is such a huge surplus that you have to lay people off and scale back. There was no huge surplus, I suspect all the lines where at close to capacity to begin with

 

[Just Jim]

Don't like 'Trickle Down' eh ? Be happy you get some.

Well yyaaahh, I did like trickle down back when we had it, never had empty shelves in those days

 

[Just Jim]

Because the capitalist manufacturers know it's only a short term bubble and would rather run at a very highly profitable full capacity than invest profits into new capacity that will sit idle as soon as stock of any kind returns to the shelves?

I respectfully disagree. The companies could be making more profit filling the demand. Is the demand for 22lr ever going to quit? Only if people quit shooting. While people are stocking up on 22lr they won't shoot up their stockpile till the shelves get full again. From then on the market will level out to normal consumtion.

 

[DeanfromOregon]

They don't make profit if they double down on infrastructure. The cost of capital would outweigh the short term gain.

Or maybe not! We is all just speculating here!

 

[IronMonster]

There is some posted info online from a few manufactures about the "shortage". It's interesting reading. It basically says there is more .22 being shipped now than there ever has been. Speer is producing something like a million rounds a day 7 days a week

 

[Just Jim]

They don't make profit if they double down on infrastructure. The cost of capital would outweigh the short term gain.

Or maybe not! We is all just speculating here!

It's kinda like farming corn you know your cost year to year but what is the demand for more corn? You have the food corn and the fuel corn, when the demand goes up do you just plant the same size crop every year? Most businesses try to fill the demand and make money. For some reason they are not doing that with 22lr.

 

[Greenbug]

Speer is producing something like a million rounds a day 7 days a week

A million rounds a day is literally just a drop in the bucket... 500 rounds in a brick one million rounds equals 2000 bricks. An average size sporting goods store could easily sell through this amount of 22 ammo in a day. How many sporting goods stores do you think there are in the northwest? or the country? or the world?

The 22lr/rimfire ammo situation is stagnant... very little available compared to demand and it is not getting any better anywhere anytime soon.

If you walk into your LGS and find 22lr on the shelf, consider yourself lucky.

 

[DeanfromOregon]

Good analogy. So using that assume that the 22LR corn is perennial and takes 7-10 years to pay off the seeds.

The seed cost is like the investment in a new production line. A short term bubble won't pay off the production if sales drop once again to pre madness levels. If you have made the decision to gear up/staff up, you'll have to drop prices just to cover overhead and your profits will go down.

Look I'm with you, I'm not sure demand will ever go down based on all of this madness. If it doesn't, I'm sure quite a few ammo manufacturers will be kicking themselves.