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Question: Has there ever been a 'realistic' study of how many would be killed & wounded in a complete U.S. Gun Confiscation?

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Everyone, I pretty much put it in the title. Just like before the planned WW2 invasion of Japan, has there ever
been a comprehensive, non-partisan, study of how many would be killed & wounded in an attempted, complete
gun confiscation in the U.S. ?

Rest assured that many would resist and refuse to go along meekly like those that marched into gas chambers.

With Presidential candidates making it an issue it would be an interesting debate point. Especially because a
former candidate suggested nuking American cities that refused to: "give up their guns."

What would be an acceptable level of killed & wounded for a candidate? 30 million, 40 million, 60 million?
Its almost like discussing the casualty rates in a nuclear exchange.

Please don't reply with "Out of my cold dead hands!" I was looking for factual numbers.

If this is offensive please ignore it.

L.B.
 

E4mafia

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Closest thing I can think of (not a study) would be to compare drug or gun raid busts done currently by the feds on illegal targets and compare/multiply that to average citizenry.

Then again as for glassing your voting base that wouldn't work out too well for our elected officials, they'd never be elected again since even your opposition would know its inhumane. Not to mention the long standing economic impact it would have when millions of jobs and services suddenly halt. That would mean banks too.

Not to mention the complete man power and logistics and coordination it would cost/take to go town to town city to city door to door and ensure a complete collection, itd be far to slow for their interest. Instead its far better to just demonize owners and generations coming to completely avoid gun owning either because its too expensive to maintain/get into or its a tedious chore maintain/get into such as CHL issuance/where you can and cannot carry (lists growing yearly) etc. Which is also equally hilarious because of the glorification of guns that come out of the fakest (ok well one of the fakest) places on earth....HOLLYWOOD.

To answer OP's question, I do not personally know if there is other than what history has taught us about the nations that have inflicted strict gun control from its citizenry and usually have they revolved around communism/socialism and a tyrannical leader who often ended up costing too much of his nations population to live to tell about it. I'd also guess if there was a comprehensive study it would have been plastered everywhere online by now in defense of why the 2A is an important aspect of the American culture.
 
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Not the US because we haven't tried that experiment (yet), but the UK has:

In 1920 the English Right to Firearms was essentially ended and then in the ensuing decades, gun laws became increasingly draconian. In 1920, the assault rate was 2.39/100k. In 1999 the assault rate had risen to 419.28/100k. That's a 17,543% increase.

Article about the study: Carlisle Moody: Handguns Stop Murders

The study itself which outlines how the introduction of the wheellock and then the flintlock lead to successive decreases in crime. Author postulates this is due to the increased potential costs in assaulting people (even a little old lady could win against against a young strong bully if she had a gun) and examines but discounts the civilizing process and the introduction of police. It is worth the time to read the study if you ever intend to discuss the issue with people: http://economics.wm.edu/wp/cwm_wp158.pdf
 
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It would depend on a lot of factors.

How the confiscation went down. A lot of variables there. Would there be "buybacks", registration, licensing, grandfathering, total and outright ban, just what would be banned and so on.

How many people would resist? 10%, 90%? Would it be a deadline for turn in? Different states have different laws right now, so different locales would have different rates of people with guns "on the books" - so some people would surely have boating accidents, or just use plausible deniability. Others - such as in Calif. would have to account for where those firearms went (which is why the anti-gunners want legal provisions for such 'loopholes' as saying a gun was lost or stolen).

How many people would say they would resist, but wouldn't? How many would drop off the grid? How many LEOs would try to enforce the law? Would the military be used? Would SCOTUS support it?

Any guess would be just that - a guess.

My bet is that the gov, if they could get the courts to support the confiscation, would try to make examples of a few people to encourage turning in firearms. A lot of people would invest in shovels/etc.
 
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Here are some Australia charts: Trends in violent crime

The charts cover 1995 through 2006. The Port Arthur inspired confiscation happened in 1996.

There is a small drop in murders, a 47% increase in assaults, a huge jump in sexual assaults in the 0-14 age category (flat otherwise), robberies doubled for a number of years after the ban before falling back to pre-ban levels.

Would be interesting to know how things have changed 2006 to present.
 
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Not the US because we haven't tried that experiment (yet), but the UK has:

In 1920 the English Right to Firearms was essentially ended and then in the ensuing decades, gun laws became increasingly draconian. In 1920, the assault rate was 2.39/100k. In 1999 the assault rate had risen to 419.28/100k. That's a 17,543% increase.

Article about the study: Carlisle Moody: Handguns Stop Murders

The study itself which outlines how the introduction of the wheellock and then the flintlock lead to successive decreases in crime. Author postulates this is due to the increased potential costs in assaulting people (even a little old lady could win against against a young strong bully if she had a gun) and examines but discounts the civilizing process and the introduction of police. It is worth the time to read the study if you ever intend to discuss the issue with people: http://economics.wm.edu/wp/cwm_wp158.pdf
IIRC, not long ago there was a graph of the U.S. homicide rate due to firearms for the time from about 1930 to about 1970. This graph showed that the rate was lowest in the 1950s when firearms were a commodity, and sold everywhere, including bars. The rate didn't start to climb again until a few years after GCA68. I have lost the URL, and have been unable to find the graph again. If anyone is familiar with the graph, it seems to me that it would be worth posting.
 
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IIRC, not long ago there was a graph of the U.S. homicide rate due to firearms for the time from about 1930 to about 1970. This graph showed that the rate was lowest in the 1950s when firearms were a commodity, and sold everywhere, including bars. The rate didn't start to climb again until a few years after GCA68. I have lost the URL, and have been unable to find the graph again. If anyone is familiar with the graph, it seems to me that it would be worth posting.
Not sure it is the same chart but the data should be the same. Anyway, this covers the 1900 - 1999 and shows a low around 1958-60ish: Homicide and Suicide in America, 1900-1998 | Hacienda Publishing

And this covers 1960-2017 (but has some Anti crap embedded, be forewarned): The U.S. Murder Rate Is Up But Still Far Below Its 1980 Peak It shows that we are at historically low murder rates -- equal to the low in 1960.

EDIT: subtracting Chicago, Baltimore, and other crime-ridden localities, I wonder what the murder rate would look like for the rest of the country.

EDIT2: Clearly this link is trying to put an Anti spin on the data, but by their own calculation, excluding Chicago, Detroit, Washington D.C. and New Orleans, would drop the murder rate in 2015 from 4.9 to 4.6/100k. Adding Baltimore, Oakland, and St. Louis to the exclusion list drops the rate to 4.4/100k. What Is The Murder Rate If We Exclude Cities Like Chicago? - The Meme Policeman
 
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WoodsPlinker

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I imagine that study is right next to the detailed study of how often a life is saved with a firearm being the main tool used.

Those that want to pass gun control don't want to be confronted with such gory details of the danger and devistation it will provide.

But to put your mind at ease, think on this, how many engineers and technically minded firearm enthusiasts are there in the United States?

Should they be deprived of their passion what do you think they would do?

You would have a 3d printer and metal sintering revolution the likes of which will probably make the globe crap themselves.
And the second amendment won't stay here, it will be given away globally.

And the criminal elements will discover it first in countries that can't have firearms.

What to you think that will do for the death rates there?

If they persist, I foresee a global "wild west".... I'm not sure what's happening here will stay here. Including the death.
 

NW Backpacker

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Not aware of a "study", but you can do a rough estimate; all hypothetical of course. It's just simple math, and the results could be 10 times too high or too low. You said "complete" confiscation. That would anger a huge percentage of gun owners, no doubt start a civil war. Some hypothetical math:

For "just" an AWB, and assuming the confiscators are dumb enough to go door to door, I'd assume at least 1% of "AW" owners would kill at least one person who appeared at the door to collect their guns. Assuming there are 10 million owners of AWs, that would result in 100,000 of the confiscators, and of course 100,000 gun owners killed; total around 200K. After all that, many AWs would STILL not be confiscated because there is no record of who owns them - they'd be hidden. ;)

For your hypothetical question on a "complete" confiscation, I think a LOT more gun owners would be willing to kill over it. Assume I'm wrong and ONLY 3% would be willing to do so. Guesstimate 65,000,000 gun owners. 65,000,000 x 0.03 = 1,950,000 confiscators killed, and of course, at least that many gun owners, for around 4 million. I don't believe they've done a "total" confiscation even in the sheep countries: NZ, UK, AU, etc. ;)

Just a guess, but I doubt either scenario would occur. One of two things could occur: confiscators give up after a very short time, realizing it can't be done; OR, if it continued, gun owners would see it on TV, get very angry, organize, and lower the hammer and massacre antis and confiscators. We'd end up keeping our guns AND theirs. Many people think that a lot of current and former military and LE would be on the side of 2A supporters. Let's hope the antis come to their senses - if they have any. ;)
 

Ura-Ki

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Recent estimates suggest there could be up to 2 million( MAX) "boots" comprising Mil and LEO and Mercs employed toward confiscation!






This is against a minimum of 10 Million "Rebels" to counter it!

The first is a Worst Case, the Second is a likely Minimum, with true numbers likely much higher!
 

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