Interest Rates and the 'Neutral Rate'

[Alexx1401]

If/when we get to that point thievery will have become a very dangerous profession indeed.

Sure as hell will. Right now few will simply kill the thief. Let this facade of society vanish and people can and will do some really horrible things to those caught stealing.

 

[Alexx1401]

What the eggheads fail to acknowledge is back then they still had capitol punishment, obesity wasn't an epidemic, and the people weren't mentally conditioned to "entitlement" like they are now….

YEP. Back then to get caught made for REAL pain. When I was a kid I was at some church "thing". Speaker from Saudi was there. Some adult there asked him about cutting the hand off of people caught stealing. The way he asked made it sound like he was mocking them for being so "backward". The guy from Saudi laughed and said you Americans think us brutal and primitive for this but its been many years since we have cut anyone's hand off. That last one long ago was a guy who was not aware of how our laws work. The point he was making was when those who would commit crime feared the consequences of getting caught you had FAR less crime.

 

[WillametteWill]

Did crime increase during the Great Depression?

At first you may think that the tough times of the Great Depression would cause people to turn to crime, however, that wasn't necessarily the case. Although there aren't a lot of crime statistics from the era, most historians agree that crime rates did not increase during the Great Depression. Some suggest that crime even went down. This may have been because so many people were hard up, they were less likely to steal from each other.

I don't doubt that at all. The culture in America was completely different then compared to now. It's similar to when people compare us now to a homogeneous, northern European country and think we can be like them. Not a chance. "They" do this a lot related to gun control. Doesn't work.

 

[Bobbygun]

Did crime increase during the Great Depression?

At first you may think that the tough times of the Great Depression would cause people to turn to crime, however, that wasn't necessarily the case. Although there aren't a lot of crime statistics from the era, most historians agree that crime rates did not increase during the Great Depression. Some suggest that crime even went down. This may have been because so many people were hard up, they were less likely to steal from each other.

This fails to take into account how much tougher folks have it now than they had it then. I mean, there are actually some folks these days who are using iPhone 14's because they can't afford the iPhone15. Thank goodness needles are free from the government these days and not just cheese.

 

[NeoBlackdog]

This fails to take into account how much tougher folks have it now than they had it then. I mean, there are actually some folks these days who are using iPhone 14's because they can't afford the iPhone15. Thank goodness needles are free from the government these days and not just cheese.

I gave you an LOL for that but on reflection it really isn't all that funny!

 

[arakboss]

This fails to take into account how much tougher folks have it now than they had it then. I mean, there are actually some folks these days who are using iPhone 14's because they can't afford the iPhone15. Thank goodness needles are free from the government these days and not just cheese.

And don't forget all the people going hungry.

 

[Stomper]

And don't forget all the people going hungry.

Like this sorry pudgy putz holding his $8 cuppa Starbucks "diabetes in a cup" that I photoed waddling in the crosswalk back to his Section-8 apartment that we're subsidizing in downtown PDX?


"Hungry people"…..

 

[Alexx1401]

Like this sorry pudgy putz holding his $8 cuppa Starbucks "diabetes in a cup" that I photoed waddling in the crosswalk back to his Section-8 apartment that we're subsidizing in downtown PDX?
View attachment 1872152

"Hungry people"…..

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I see that in the store all the damn time and it burns me good. People like that paying with their welfare card. In other words paying with my money.

 

[solv3nt]

The thing I find most intriguing about the current economy, is how on paper it is thriving, aka, the higher income levels are benefiting. While the lower income levels are having troubles.

 

[washagonian]

Sigh............

I just love this

 

[nwslopoke]

Yeah, well the "homeless" will be WAY further up sheite-creek when the bleeding heart enablers that are currently given them what little crumbs sustain them are no longer there…. they'll make for great sandbags.

The "homeless" are already battling the "new comers" in most big cities. But, much like inflation, stats like crime are what those who write it say it is.

Crimes like theft and violence aren't up. Stores and restaurants that were open for decades and generations are closing, just because.

I'm a big believer in savings but understand the dollar itself is not bullet proof. When it crashes next time, there will be real alternatives.

 

[Nick Burkhardt]

We did not enter full recession in 2023 as we should have because SVB and other failed banks were bailedout and the Biden administration's HUGE deficit spending.

Both injected cash into the economy. No matter who wins in November, the government spending will stop and unemployment will get very bad.

 

[solv3nt]

We did not enter full recession in 2023 as we should have because SVB and other failed banks were bailedout and the Biden administration's HUGE deficit spending.

Both injected cash into the economy. No matter who wins in November, the government spending will stop and unemployment will get very bad.

Unfortunately, it's not just Biden's deficit spending. Trump and Bush before him were also big spenders. Don't forget to throw in Obummer into that mix. That makes almost twenty-four years of deficit spending.

Hate to say it, but Clinton had a surplus. Basically we've been deficit spending for over sixty years.

 

[Barefootdog]

For anything from oil security, interest rates and inflation it's like we learned nothing from the 70's and 80's. Add a massive debt load, emerging alternative to the petro dollar, inability to manufacture what we need/use and the massive welfare load from illegal immigration....future options to fix the problem or limit the pain may be limited.

We've constructed a Gordian Knot of economic stupidity.
I think this is going to hurt.

 

[Kcee]

I got 5% on a CD at the beginning of the year, and today that same CD will only pay 2.5% (I just looked up the current rates).

Savings accounts never did anything over the last few years, and stayed under 0.2%.

Banking has been dead for years now, and I expect to see a lot more banks go under soon.

I use 3 banks, all with physical locations. I have family and friends that only use 1 online bank, that have no physical locations, not that it matters today, because all banking is dependent on online computers today.

Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

 

[doninoregon]

Traditionally the "correct" interest rate is 3 percentage points above the inflation rate.

But as others pointed out, "one must know the real rate of inflation" ... there's the rub.

 

[Bobbygun]

I got 5% on a CD at the beginning of the year, and today that same CD will only pay 2.5% (I just looked up the current rates).

Hmmm... You might want to check a different bank or credit union. My local credit union is still offering 5% APY for 11-month CDs.

 

[NeoBlackdog]

Unfortunately, it's not just Biden's deficit spending. Trump and Bush before him were also big spenders. Don't forget to throw in Obummer into that mix. That makes almost twenty-four years of deficit spending.

Hate to say it, but Clinton had a surplus. Basically we've been deficit spending for over sixty years.

Clinton had a surplus because Newt Gingrich and the Republicans controlled Congress and had him by the short and curlies. (Let that image sink in!)

 

[Kcee]

Hmmm... You might want to check a different bank or credit union. My local credit union is still offering 5% APY for 11-month CDs.

The bank I'm looking at still has 5%, but it's for 2 months. I was looking at the 12 month. I actually use 3 banks. One is "too big to fail," and the other 2 are regional.

 

[Kcee]

The bank I'm looking at still has 5%, but it's for 2 months. I was looking at the 12 month. I actually use 3 banks. One is "too big to fail," and the other 2 are regional.

The length of the CDs really tells a story. Being the bank I looked at only offers 5% for a 2 month tells me they don't have much confidence interest rates will hold up very long, whereas at the beginning of the year they did, and offered higher rates that went all the way into 2025.