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have we hit the peak?

Discussion in 'General Firearm Discussion' started by Hartebreak, Jan 25, 2013.

  1. Hartebreak

    Hartebreak Portland Member

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    With the proposed AWB looking very unlikely to pass, and the spike in prices seeming to have found the max that people are willing to pay (and some prices actually going back down) have we hit the peak? Are we perhaps starting a recovery as far as prices and availability?
     
  2. Just Me

    Just Me Peoples Republik of Oregon Active Member

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    I think the credit card bills started showing up this past week. ;)
     
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  3. nick1980

    nick1980 Portland, OR Active Member

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    People will come back to reality, just takes time. It is very unlikely a AWB will go into affect and then prices will come back down to where they were 2 months ago. It will take a while for inventory to catch up but it will and we will look back on this like we did the 2008 scare and laugh.
     
  4. 1stklass

    1stklass salem oregon Well-Known Member

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    Lets hope! i think there is a huge distrust in Obama though, he is still a Chicago Politician/Kenyan Dictator at heart, and i dont think anyone trusts him as far as they could throw him :bluelaugh:
     
  5. cueball1214

    cueball1214 Beaverton Active Member

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    I think we are close to the peak. if not at it. I don't think we will see a AWB for the Nation, but we need to watch out for anything that looks like a bill that new york being introduced here. Molon Labe
     
  6. RVTECH

    RVTECH LaPine Well-Known Member

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    A terminal amount of sales may have been reached. They reached a crescendo very quickly and may have met the tipping point. A comparative example may have been the report of Brownell's selling 3.5 years worth of mags in three days. Mathematical deduction would suggest that was probably 90% of the total probable sales that were ever going to take place, with a few stragglers still buying. We will soon see a 'quiet time' with both AR and mag sales slowing, or coming to a halt completely - but the perception will continue for a while before reality sets in with a possible sell off sending prices way down. I could be wrong but the history of panic buying almost always results in a sharp decline and falling prices.
     
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  7. 1stklass

    1stklass salem oregon Well-Known Member

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    I dont know if a terminal amount of sales was reached, I believe if there was ten years supply it would have sold in ten days... Peoples perception led them to believe they needed 20 mags and a rifle for every person, cat, dog and fish in their house, and if they didnt have it the world was going to end... :bluelaugh:
     
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  8. RVTECH

    RVTECH LaPine Well-Known Member

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    My point was there are only so many buyers for any non-pershible product at any given time. In a non-panic situation this results in a level sales environment over a certain period of time. With ARs & mags however that has been accelerated by what, 100 times or more? Therefore the maximum (or a high percentage) of it is going to be reached that much faster obviously. Also the disposable dollars available for the purchases are going to go proportionally as quickly. Perceived value also diminishes quicker the faster something is obtained IE. if you scrimp and save for something for a long period of time it has much more perceived value to you than if you just ran out and bought it with a CC or available cash. Another issue is one's commitment to the actual use of the item purchased. I see this in the RV business. Probably two out of three RVs purchased are rarely if ever used and are soon sold off. I believe the same holds true for ARs. Probably the greater percentage of buyers have no idea as to what they are really ever going to do with it. They simply got caught up in the frenzy.
     
  9. rdt

    rdt SW Portland Active Member

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    I think it will be more of a mesa than a peak. For everyone who sells to pay a cc or to liquidate their speculation inventory there is someone else out there who either just now got the money for their 1st AR or still thinks they need a 3rd one.
     
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  10. SLO

    SLO Portland Member

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    I think the bigger contributing factor is how much private inventory there is out there. Yeah, lots of people are wanting to buy an AR before they can't but just as many, and now more, people are wanting to sell theirs at an inflated price to make some extra cash. Have you seen how many AR's there are on here in the rifle section? On gunbroker, AR15, etc. I see more for sale now than usual. I am also seeing AR's sit on the wall longer at gun stores. Curt has a few lower priced, basic AR's that have been on his wall all week. There are a few at NW that aren't moving. I have been watching some Noveske's online that aren't too ridiculously priced that haven't moved for three auction cycles now.

    Its simple supply and deman. And, If inventory starts sitting, prices will go back down.
     
  11. nwdrifter

    nwdrifter troutdale oregon Active Member

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    The fed ban is not the issue watch out for the state. Our dem state is the worry
     
  12. timac

    timac Loading Magazines! Well-Known Member

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    Those affected by all this hysteria, were the ones that assumed our 2nd amendment or any of our GOD GIVEN rights were safe. They failed to prepare, they didn't learn the history from those who wish to control the American people. People need to wake F*%@ up and stay prepared and stay ever vigilant on their freedoms.
    Keep writing your officials, let them know you're watching them. Remind them, we are a Constitutional Republic not a Democratic Republic.
     
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  13. Velzey

    Velzey Estacada, Oregon Gunsmith Gunsmith Bronze Vendor Bronze Supporter

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    It bothers me that a certain NW arms store instantly did not have a few things in stock, and still dont. But yet they are selling every kind of semi auto, and magazine available on their auction site...
     
  14. teflon97239

    teflon97239 Portland, OR Well-Known Member

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    Who dat? If they're doing it, we should know.

    Never feel bad for outing behavior - honorable or otherwise.
     
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  15. Siuslaw Warrior

    Siuslaw Warrior Oregon Coast Member

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    What I find most interesting is how many people found it necessary to purchase a firearm. Economy bad, many unemployed, up to eyeballs in debt and yet still ready to put down $2500 for a rifle and ammo. If you believe the mass media, no one wants a gun .. and yet

    So, for all of you who are new to firearm ownership -- Welcome :)
     
  16. Velzey

    Velzey Estacada, Oregon Gunsmith Gunsmith Bronze Vendor Bronze Supporter

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    NW armory...their auction guy is jackthedog. They are making max profit selling on auction.

    Everything For Sale by JACKTHEDOG at GunAuction.com



     
  17. gsxrrider

    gsxrrider NW Oregon New Member

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    I sure hope things settle soon, but I fear magazines will stay overpriced for a little while longer, even when firearms are back in stock.
     
  18. DireWolf

    DireWolf Oregon Active Member

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    "Honey, when you said you were buying an AR-15, you never said it was going to be $2,500. Didn't the last one cost $800?"

    :laugh:
     
  19. gmorg1

    gmorg1 Redmond, Or. New Member

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    good morning fellow shooters, am new to this website, seems to have some good info. Am tring to buy a Hi-Point carbine, none in Central Or. Any ideas?? thanks
     
  20. fxdc

    fxdc Da Valley USPSA, SPEED STEEL, IDPA, 3 GUN

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    I went through this in the early 90s and it was making hard to shoot IPSC . Over priced hi caps and shortages on reloading stuff!!!!

    It will settle down but I can only hope the people buying guns are becoming NRA MEMBERS.

    Rember ..... WHEN SECONDS COUNT, HELP IS JUST MINUTES AWAY!!!