Betsy Johnson, Machine Gun Owner

[JRuby]

Drazen will be next Sunday at 6:00 PM on KOIN 6.

Thanks looking forward to it.

 

[Cavedweller]

Heard on the radio this morning that Betsy's share of the latest poll was only 11%. Drazen was in the low 40s, Kotex in the high 30s. Looks like Betsy's support is evaporating as more people realize she can't win. Most of her support appears to be gravitating to Drazen. A vote for Betsy is a wasted vote.

 

[JRuby]

Then Drazen has nothing to worry about.

 

[Member 53328]

I'd love to see Oregon go red. It would be the first time in my life.

 

[E4mafia]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581828484288372736

 

[CamoDeafie]

Heard on the radio this morning that Betsy's share of the latest poll was only 11%. Drazen was in the low 40s, Kotex in the high 30s. Looks like Betsy's support is evaporating as more people realize she can't win. Most of her support appears to be gravitating to Drazen. A vote for Betsy is a wasted vote.

Then Drazen has nothing to worry about.

Thing is; Kotek polling at 38% against 44% for Drazan... what's the margin of error? And it's from only Clout Research as of the 12th of October? Nelson research puts Kotek at 32% vs Betsy 19% versus Drazan at 33% with 16% Other, as of the 4th of Oct, and Emerson has Kotek 34%, Johnson 19%, Drazan 36%, Other 11% as of the 30th of September.

Clout has 3.4% +/- margin, Emerson College, same percentage margin and Nelson has 3.9%+/- margin.

It looks like a much closer race than the polling indicates... Clout has the largest sample size of the three.

 

[nammac]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581828484288372736

Well, that's interesting…

 

[Cavedweller]

Thing is; Kotek polling at 38% against 44% for Drazan... what's the margin of error? And it's from only Clout Research as of the 12th of October? Nelson research puts Kotek at 32% vs Betsy 19% versus Drazan at 33% with 16% Other, as of the 4th of Oct, and Emerson has Kotek 34%, Johnson 19%, Drazan 36%, Other 11% as of the 30th of September.

Clout has 3.4% +/- margin, Emerson College, same percentage margin and Nelson has 3.9%+/- margin.

It looks like a much closer race than the polling indicates... Clout has the largest sample size of the three.

Statistically speaking, the margin of error applies to a single survey. I don't know for certain what confidence level these various survey companies are using, but let's assume that it's 95%, as that's the most commonly used. That means that if the same survey were repeated 100 times, in only 5 of the surveys out of 100 would the difference be due to chance, or sampling error if you prefer that term. So when multiple surveys return the same result at a 95% level of confidence, it is highly unlikely the results are due to error. The margin of error of each individual survey becomes less and less relevant as they return the same result with repetition over time..

 

[CamoDeafie]

There's a 6% difference between Kotek and Drazan; accounting for margin of error, it might be more likely roughly 3% to 9% percent difference between the two. And the source is from 270 to win site who says these were averaged from up to 4 different polls per company

Edit. Like I said, it might be a closer race between these two than polls indicate. Or it might be farther apart, or the "silent majority " voters might do something unexpected (Betsy? Kotek?)

 

[Provincial]

Our household hangs up on pollsters. Many "unwoke" people fear to answer calls from numbers they don't recognize, and refuse to participate in polls if cornered. Some even give false answers to polls.

The pollsters haven't changed their methodology to take this into account. Trump's win was a surprise.

 

[CamoDeafie]

Our household hangs up on pollsters. Many "unwoke" people fear to answer calls from numbers they don't recognize, and refuse to participate in polls if cornered. Some even give false answers to polls.

The pollsters haven't changed their methodology to take this into account. Trump's win was a surprise.

This is precisely what I'm talking about.

 

[Cavedweller]

Edit. Like I said, it might be a closer race between these two than polls indicate. Or it might be farther apart, or the "silent majority " voters might do something unexpected (Betsy? Kotek?)

Where would this silent majority come from? When you add those who have expressed a preference for one of the 3 major candidates, with the "others" (minor parties), there aren't that many undecideds left. What "silent majority"?

Our household hangs up on pollsters. Many "unwoke" people fear to answer calls from numbers they don't recognize, and refuse to participate in polls if cornered. Some even give false answers to polls.

The pollsters haven't changed their methodology to take this into account. Trump's win was a surprise.

I don't waste my time with pollsters either. Rest assured that by whatever criteria your household was selected, if you hang up your opinion will be represented by another household in the sampling regimen. You do not deny pollsters any information by refusing to speak to them. Your opinion is not that unique.

But let's assume that you are correct, and the "unwoke" don't answer, don't participate, or give false answers. Who is that good news for, Kotex or Drazen?

 

[Provincial]

In my experience, "unwoke" will not vote for Kotek. The question is, will they vote at all?

 

[Yarome]

It's interesting to see just how many deep blue states are actually pivoting red during mid-terms. Depsite the vise lock on the media and brandons house constantly bombarding the public with their rhetoric... while actively suppressing any dissenting viewpoints.

It's very telling and would give me great joy to see OR shift.

For awhile there I was really starting to warm to the "Greater Idaho" idea. Talk about desperate. I don't wanna be no tater-tot.

 

[CamoDeafie]

Where would this silent majority come from? When you add those who have expressed a preference for one of the 3 major candidates, with the "others" (minor parties), there aren't that many undecideds left. What "silent majority"?

Non-affiliated voters are the slim majority right now in Oregon according to SoS most recent registered voters stats. So really, you'd need to poll most of those to get a clearer idea of which way they lean; because there just doesn't seem to be any concrete data on what %es of NAVs voted whom/which party in the past. That'd likely be the silent majority.. or it's those on both sides that don't get polled, don't talk, advertise but they voted....

I don't waste my time with pollsters either. Rest assured that by whatever criteria your household was selected, if you hang up your opinion will be represented by another household in the sampling regimen. You do not deny pollsters any information by refusing to speak to them. Your opinion is not that unique.

The polls' sampling sizes;
Clout Research has 842 Likely Voters polled with 3.4 %+/- error.

Emerson College has 796 LV polled, with same margin.

Nelson Research has 620LV polled; 3.9% +/- margin of error.

Versus just over 2 million registered voters?

But let's assume that you are correct, and the "unwoke" don't answer, don't participate, or give false answers. Who is that good news for, Kotex or Drazen?

Good question. Again, it could go any direction but it seems the media are saying Drazan is polling leading... however it could be a way to ensure Kotek victory by people saying "well, if Drazan is going to win; why bother voting?" And boom Kotek gets more ballots counted to her favor

 

[Cavedweller]

Non-affiliated voters are the slim majority right now in Oregon according to SoS most recent registered voters stats. So really, you'd need to poll most of those to get a clearer idea of which way they lean; because there just doesn't seem to be any concrete data on what %es of NAVs voted whom/which party in the past. That'd likely be the silent majority.. or it's those on both sides that don't get polled, don't talk, advertise but they voted....

You seem to be under the impression that NAVs do not get polled. Why is that? Polls do not sample only those with party affiliation. They are a cross section of the presumed voting population, regardless of party affiliation or lack thereof. I fail to understand why you think their opinions are not represented in poll results.

 

[CamoDeafie]

You seem to be under the impression that NAVs do not get polled. Why is that? Polls do not sample only those with party affiliation. They are a cross section of the presumed voting population, regardless of party affiliation or lack thereof. I fail to understand why you think their opinions are not represented in poll results.

It's the same way we don't know if the percentage of LVs they sample follows the SoS percentages.. in any case.. there could be biases in how they sample, and where (location, location, location). I'm just saying under 20% polling for Betsy versus over 40% for Drazan when 20-25% of the total registered Voters are registered Republican? But over 30% for Kotek when about 34% of total registered Voters are registered Democrats? Yeah.... I dunno. Couple that with historical data of turnouts for midterms being usually below 50% of the registered voters... again, I just have my doubts that the sample sizes are accurately reflective of the registered voters so far. Like I said, it could really go any of the 3 ways, we'll see what happens.

 

[Cavedweller]

It's the same way we don't know if the percentage of LVs they sample follows the SoS percentages.. in any case.. there could be biases in how they sample, and where (location, location, location). I'm just saying under 20% polling for Betsy versus over 40% for Drazan when 20-25% of the total registered Voters are registered Republican? But over 30% for Kotek when about 34% of total registered Voters are registered Democrats? Yeah.... I dunno. Couple that with historical data of turnouts for midterms being usually below 50% of the registered voters... again, I just have my doubts that the sample sizes are accurately reflective of the registered voters so far. Like I said, it could really go any of the 3 ways, we'll see what happens.

Your points are well taken. I'm not sure Drazen will win, and I'm not endorsing the views of those who say Oregon is "turning red." This is a highly unusual situation, due to the three candidacies, which might allow a Republican victory, but only because of the unusual circumstances. I think it is a toss up between Drazen and Kotex. The only thing I'm sure of is that Betsy has no chance. The stats can't be that far off. But, as you say, we shall see.

 

[amusicman2]

Heard on the radio this morning that Betsy's share of the latest poll was only 11%. Drazen was in the low 40s, Kotex in the high 30s. Looks like Betsy's support is evaporating as more people realize she can't win. Most of her support appears to be gravitating to Drazen. A vote for Betsy is a wasted vote.

Unless you're a dem. Then you should vote for her.

 

[JRuby]

If polls were so accurate Hillary would have been president . I do not have faith in them.