The Official NWF UFC/MMA Thread

[AshWilliams]

Yes. Why not it is only $$.

Hate betting against Bryce, love the guy, but just have to set that aside. The Bryce-Ilia part is the weakest link in the parlay but that is why the pay off is high. Higher risk, higher reward.

BRYCE!!!

Love Darren also, but can't factor that into betting. Darren needs to get back to 170 he is getting starched imo.

So I tried to use Draftkings but it says that I cannot place bets in Oregon. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[AshWilliams]

Woohoo! Let's gooo!

 

[AshWilliams]

Paddy lost.

It's also amazing that folks in the US would boo their own in favor of Paddy.

Money: steering all perception near you.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Paddy lost and Jan lost. I was really PISSED but then when I got home until I saw my bet of $150 won $400. How, I mean Jan/Uncle was a draw ??(bs, but nonetheless).

Apparently on a draw in a parlay they remove that fight from the parlay and still pay on the other two. Had Ilia, DDP, Uncle.

I relearned my own lesson tonight though and just was lucky. Always know if it goes to the judges they work for the UFC and will give the victory to who the UFC wants to win aka Paddy and Jan. Jan lost by a huge margin in strikes and had no ground control.

 

[AshWilliams]

UFC is transitioning to WWE

Paddy lost and Jan lost. I was really PISSED but then when I got home until I saw my bet of $150 won $400. How, I mean Jan/Uncle was a draw ??(bs, but nonetheless).

Apparently on a draw in a parlay they remove that fight from the parlay and still pay on the other two. Had Ilia, DDP, Uncle.

I relearned my own lesson tonight though and just was lucky. Always know if it goes to the judges they work for the UFC and will give the victory to who the UFC wants to win aka Paddy and Jan. Jan lost by a huge margin in strikes and had no ground control.

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"That's it. I'm growing my hair out and dying it blonde before my next fight. "

Lololol!

 

[Burt Gummer]

Roid-Rage Conor fights Paddy next fall in a mega fight at 170 and destroys him. This will be another hand pick and easier win for Conor.

 

[Burt Gummer]

This next Saturday I see underdog Jared KO/TKO win against Sean. There are not really any other as of yet that day I see as a good risk.

The only fighter I see as being close to a sure thing is Shavkat Rakhmonov on 1/14/23. He will dismantle Geoff Neal. Poor and risky odds though, -350. Expect odds to shift to -450 by fight day.

 

[AshWilliams]

This next Saturday I see underdog Jared KO/TKO win against Sean. There are not really any other as of yet that day I see as a good risk.

The only fighter I see as being close to a sure thing is Shavkat Rakhmonov on 1/14/23. He will dismantle Geoff Neal. Poor and risky odds though, -350. Expect odds to shift to -450 by fight day.

Yeah, Shavkat is going to curb stomp him first round.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Dream Parlay, but only if I had Biff's Sports Almanac

 

[Burt Gummer]

More down to Earth. Cannonier being the weakest link. Worried about Strickland's volume. Everyone knows exactly how Strickland will fight. Plod forward with his jab relentlessly like a robot. Then defensively just waving both arms out there like a blind guy. It is all about what Cannonier does in response.

 

[Burt Gummer]

My dog of the card today is Cory McKenna at +160. I believe she pulls the upset. CV will need an IV lol.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Risky $100 bet, but why not, last card of the year.

 

[Burt Gummer]

I wish ESPN+ could get more sponsors vs playing the same commercials on rotate 20x. Hello Johnny Depp for the 11th time!

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[Burt Gummer]

I am good. Should have my own YT betting channel my wins/loss are over 85% this year. That's it for bets today. Thought about Jared bet, but always quit when ahead ..........

 

[AshWilliams]

Alex Caceres with that strategically planned slipped left followed by the left kick for the KO...

The MMA gods wiped away tears of joy from that KO.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Ahh why not another itsy tiny bet - $55 - makes watching more exciting ---

 

[Burt Gummer]

Big Bobby Green fan now even though he lost. So fast! If he could just stop with the posing and showboating.

 

[AshWilliams]

Big Bobby Green fan now even though he lost. So fast! If he could just stop with the posing and showboating.

The mic even caught him chiding himself saying that he kept telling himself, "Don't be stupid."

Personally, I thought with his hands down like that it was only a matter of time. A hardened, seasoned fighter would have taken a fighter out with his hands by his side much earlier.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Well Roy Jones Jr did pretty well with that same hands down try to hit me style.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Was looking through the odds from yesterday at 3-4 bouts w/ favs at -280 to -310 and they really didn't justify those kind of odds.
One or two lost. Didn't agree with the Strickland-Cannonier decision either. Thought Sean won via strike count and one TD. No one will complain because it was very close. Strickland landed total significant strikes 157 to 141. Head strikes 126 to 57. Scored the only takedown. And Jared was the only one wobbled in the fight. He landed more strikes in round 2 3 4 and 5. Close fight but Jared didn't win.

Now, Shavkat at -320 Jan 14th. I would expect as casuals do their research to see Shavkat move closer to -420 pre-fight. That means with DK a cash-out is always on the table pre-fight. So that is like a savings account. If Geoff pulls out, unlikely, then it is cancelled.

HATE betting on anyone over -220 as a rule but will probably put $$ on Shavkat. A parlay with Whittaker possible but drags the bet out over 30 additional days. Patience often pays off.