The Official NWF UFC/MMA Thread

[AshWilliams]

@Burt Gummer suggested a UFC thread for NWF to chat about upcoming fights, training, and betting/odds.

Any interest from the community regarding this or is it just Burt and me?

I'm a regular at Big Al's in Beaverton for the UFC fights so it would be awesome to have a gathering of NWF members to watch the fights.

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[gryghin]

Had no idea they were showing the fights there. Are they charging admission or just food and drinks?

 

[AshWilliams]

They charge admission. I believe for the last UFC it was $20. You have the choice of seating upstairs at the bar/pool tables or downstairs. I prefer a booth downstairs.

 

[Burt Gummer]

The best UFC public/bar showing I ever went to was Ilani Casino for Conor vs Khabib. It was free and what a setup. Giant 100" TVs in a circle-the-wagons config, an announcer and ring girls. As close to being at the live event as you could get.

Right now a buddy has a 90' TV so when it is PPV I usually head there and am committed for the weekend.

Future stuff I'd be up for it.

Ash - word has it Islam will be fighting RDA this weekend - holy crap - 5 days notice.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Colby/Jorge fight to be won in last 60 seconds of Round 5 - Like a LOTTO ticket

Fight to be won between 04:00 - End of the 5th round

Wager:
$25.00
To Pay: $1,900.00

+ Holland and Hardy to win by TKO/KO. Except for LOW $$ stuff for fun there is nothing really screaming 'BET THIS" for Saturday.

 

[AshWilliams]

Colby/Jorge fight to be won in last 60 seconds of Round 5 - Like a LOTTO ticket

Fight to be won between 04:00 - End of the 5th round

Wager:
$25.00
To Pay: $1,900.00

+ Holland and Hardy to win by TKO/KO. Except for LOW $$ stuff for fun there is nothing really screaming 'BET THIS" for Saturday.

Are these your bets Burt? Do you use the DraftKings app?

 

[Burt Gummer]

Yes - Draftkings now that they took over the Oregon Lotto Betting.

I am pretty much not betting this Saturday though. Just $100. I've learned to be patient and wait for a well-researched bet that I feel really good about. Last weekend, the Islam bet for it not to go the distance was -300. I knew that was a lock.
Bet a significant amount, should have bet a lot more. Rare that I spot bets like that. Sometimes betting $3k to win $1k makes a lot of sense, but it takes guts.

My best bet in the last six months was some girl vs Ribas and people were saying 'she hits really hard I wouldn't count out a surprise KO. Odds were +1400 on her winning by TKO/KO, and she did. That more than made up for Conor losing that night.

EDIT - That some girl that was the +1400 KO underdog was Marina Rodriguez = fighting Saturday also. No bet cause she is now a big favorite. I believe she will win though.

The future bet I'll jump on right away is Khamzat vs Gilbert. If Khamzat is this side of -350 I'm all in. There may be a better bet like it won't go the distance ....... it won't.

Betting is like Las Vegas or the stock market. Everyone tells you about how they WON and never about how or if they are LOSING. My bets are about 6/10 for 2021-22 so far. Lots of underdog surprises. Stopped doing parlays over THREE.

When/if I have what I believe are good bets I'll post them here. My Saturday bet's are more just for fun. IF J/C's fight ends in the last 60 seconds - absolutely improbable - I'll be crowing about it however.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Big Al's - now I know what I remember there. The Jorge vs Ben fight. Was playing pool. Looked down to make my shot and the fight was over.

 

[titsonritz]

Some MMA related news, even involves a gun...

Reports: Cain Velasquez allegedly shot at man accused of molesting a relative possibly '100 times'

Update: Former MMA star Cain Velasquez shot at man charged with molesting his relative, sources say

 

[Burt Gummer]

Yeah sadly Cain will probably get convicted of one of the lower charges and serve five years. The pedo however since it is CA, probably five weeks.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Ahh hell - bored so I placed probably foolish bets HAHAHA. I like Bert MMA on You Tube although he appears to be a kid making bet predictions out of his mom's basement. Another one is Fight Night Pics. Then ESPN actually has pro gamblers on that are pretty informed. Even with all that, 99% of bets are just a crap shoot. As the sticker says, gamble for entertainment purposes ONLY.

 

[AshWilliams]

Ahh hell - bored so I placed probably foolish bets HAHAHA. I like Bert MMA on You Tube although he appears to be a kid making bet predictions out of his mom's basement. Another one is Fight Night Pics. Then ESPN actually has pro gamblers on that are pretty informed. Even with all that, 99% of bets are just a crap shoot. As the sticker says, gamble for entertainment purposes ONLY.

View attachment 1145259

I'm going to place some bets for this Saturday.

 

[Burt Gummer]

ESPN bets is actually a pretty good presentation.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Ok someone stop me. Couldn't help but bet on the Umar fight to not go the distance at -120. People that have bet on Umar to get a sub haven't got those odds and that makes no sense. Obviously if he gets a sub the fight did not go the distance.

 

[Heyjoe]

I think covington will handily beat masvidal. Should be a pretty one sided fight. 'Corse 4oz gloves and a heavy handed opponent like Jorge could make things unpredictable

 

[Burt Gummer]

Did decent tonight. What a party. Heard Khamzat vs Burns is official for April 9th!

I would expect even though Khamzat is ranked way below Burns he will be at least a -400 favorite .

Here's my strategy. Worked with Islam and Umar. Khamzat vs Burns to not go the distance should be significantly better than ML. It won't go the distance. Khamzat will wreck Burns.

The cart before the horse. Will start looking over next Saturday. Any tips appreciated!

 

[AshWilliams]

What about that Bryce Mitchell? What a complete beast! Reminds me of Matt Hughes back in the day representing old school ground-and-pound. That school of technique may not make for a spectacular fight, but it sure as bubblegum gets the job done in a big way.

 

[Burt Gummer]

OK cleaned this up for Sat 3/12 and will edit ..........

So far, even or underdogs are nice cause I can loose 2/3 or better and still break even. Odds too rich for Magomed on 3/12. Might take 'not to go the distance' bet IF I feel pretty sure he will finish the fight vs decision. Santos is no joke.

Snuck in a Blazer bet. Don't see them scoring over 101.5 points tonight.

 

[Burt Gummer]

All in on Arnold Allen. Vs Dan Hooker. 3/19 next Saturday. IMO a steal at even money. Anything can happen but Allen is one tough SOB.

 

[mrblond]

I have not followed UFC since Royce Gracy was fighting.. Didnt they change the rules since then? I seem to remember many more different fighting styles back in the old days