The Free Online Survival Guide

[Westfalia]

Sibi Totique: Story Driven vs. Risk Driven Preparedness

Lately I’m not sure if it’s just me or if the type of thinking that is related to the Survivalist and Prepper community has started to get more and more rigid. It’s very seldom that we see new subjects discussed; it seems to circulate more and more around the same subjects. So I would suggest that we dare to approach the subject from new perspectives. In this article I will discuss the SHTF / TEOTWAWKI concepts and how Survivalist and Preppers could approach the subject differently.

The End Of The World As We Know It
The World as We Know it is about to come to an end. The true reason for this can vary (economical, political, terrorism, Peak Oil, EMP etc) but the imagined end is the same. The End will come fast, very fast. It’s likely that we will experience and enormous amount of civil disturbance and violence. Everything that we have become accustomed too is likely to disappear. The Question is not if this will happen. The question is When it will happen. The signs are all around us. The state of the economy, Peak Oil, Global Warming, International Tensions, Terrorism and much more. The World System is like a House of Cards, it will only take a push and it will all come crashing down.

It’s important to stockpile food, water, weapons and ammunition. Those how haven’t will try to take what they need from those how have prepared. These “Raiders” will attack everything and everyone. Therefore it’s critical to maintain what you have an absolute secret. This is often referred to as OPSEC; if no one knows what you have they can’t steal it.

This type of Storytelling that we can see within the Prepper and Survivalist is not something that is shared by everyone, but it is relatively common. This type of stories is represented in fictional literature like James Wesley Rawles book “Patriots” and William Forstchens “One Second After” but can also be found in Hollywood movies. There are some common parts; The Belief that The World As We Know It Will Come To An End, That it will take place soon and That it can’t be stopped.

Risk Oriented Preparedness
All people face different types of Risks and Threats depending on their location. This is both affected by the Geographical location that affects what type of Natural Disasters like Volcanoes, Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Hurricanes and Tornadoes that might affect the individual. But the location is also critical for other type of potential hazards related to human activities like human conflict, terrorism and failing technical systems.

A Risk Assessment is a structured tool to help you create a good understanding of Risks you face but it can also create a situation of false security. It’s important that you also understand what type of events that you don’t regard as threats and why you don’t believe that this type of events poses a threat. It’s also important to realize that everyone has Blind Spots; Potential Risks that we are unaware of. There are also events that are not anticipated by almost anyone; these types of events are often referred to as Black Swans after the concept introduced by Taleb Nassim.

Building Your Capacity To Deal With Emergencies
Having the ability to Cope with Disasters not only as possessing the right tools but also having the experience and skills required to utilize these resources. Here Knowledge, Skills and Experience and Physical Fitness and Health are variables that can be more valuable than the equipment you own. Without training and skills a First Aid Kit is of little use and the same goes for all type of equipment – it can make a difference but you must be able to utilize this resource. Other Critical Factors are also External Factors like your Family, Social Network and other type of resources like First Responders that may assist you during an Emergency.

The World is Changing
The World is not a static place, the World is constantly changing and individuals are constantly changing as well. In a Risk Oriented Preparedness it is important to adapt to the changes both in your personal life but also when it comes to the situation around you. People get older, may change their location, their family situation can change and new political, economical and environmental challenges can appear. So instead of viewing the problem as a linear problem where you first make a analysis and then take action I suggest that you approach the subject from a cyclical perspective where you will always have to adapt to the ongoing reality. The same goes for skills, in order to maintain skills repeated training is required. Focus on potential disasters for what they truly are. Instead of approaching the subject from a One Size Fits all point of view where stockpiling supplies prepares you for every possible scenario actually analyze threats and risks for their specific consequences.

Two Approaches: An Analysis
There many examples throughout history when civilizations have Collapsed. There are also many contemporary examples when States have either Collapsed or Failed or various levels; Afghanistan, Somalia, Sierra Leone, The Conflict in former Yugoslavia and Rwanda are some examples. But these examples do not necessary follow the storyline imagined in fictional novels.

Many reason that if they are prepared for the absolutely worst they are also prepared for less extensive disasters like Earthquakes or Hurricanes. The Problem here is that every disaster is specific in its origin and consequences. Have a year’s worth of food do not necessary prepare you for an Earthquake; in order to prepare for this type of scenario training in First Aid, having the right Insurance and choosing a building and location that has the proper resistance may be much more important.

Disaster Preparedness is big business today. Many companies make large profits selling everything from food to flashlights, survival kits and ready to go Bug Out Bags. For many bloggers and writers making the worst predictions is a way of getting the most attention. What I want to raise in this article is that preparedness should not simply be bases upon fictional fear driven stories. You should make efforts that make sense for your personal situation and setting.

One critical factor is that the Storytelling does not welcome the idea of working together with others in the name of OPSEC. This a personal choose for everyone must make, but I personally see it as problem if people disregard the idea of working together with others based upon a fictional idea. Another critical factor is that some individuals use the SHTF / TEOTWAWKI story as a Mental Model, taking any information that indicates a negative development and believes that it indicates that end is near.

In this article I have criticized some of Storytelling that often can be seen within the Survivalist and Prepper Movement. This does not mean that I do not recommend people to Prepare for Potential Disasters or Crisis Situations. The aim The Free Online Survival Guide is to provide readers with resources so that they may enhance their own ability to deal with Crisis Situations and Disasters. This article is intended to move the Focus from the Fictional Stories that motivates many to a Perspective when you put Your own Situation, Your Own Needs and Your own Analysis in Focus.

 

[Westfalia]

Sibi Totique: An Education – The Most Important Tool For a Bug Out?

An Education – The most important tool for a Bug Out?
Within the Preppers and Survivalist Bug Out Bags (BOB) and Evacuations is a common subject that is often discussed. Different types of natural disasters like Wild Fires and Hurricanes may force people to leave their homes in order to avoid death or injury. But there are also Man-Made threats that may force people to leave their homes like Wars, Civil Wars and failing technical systems like a Nuclear Power Plant Meltdown.

Long Term Displacement
Wars have often always been a major factor forcing people to leave their homes. During the Second World War many fled the affected areas in order to avoid the fighting, bombings and occupation forces. After the end of the World War over one million people were displaced. The process to rebuild destroyed housing and infrastructure would take a very long time.

During modern civil wars and collapsed states it’s not uncommon that more than half of the entire population is displaced either within the affected country or forced to flee to other countries. The violence during civil wars often involve systematic attacks against the civilian populations in forms of artillery attacks, snipers, torture, systematic sexual violence, torture, amputating limbs, forced castrations and other abuses making the level of terror extremely high. Its often common that specific groups becomes target through ethnic cleansing; its can often be very hard for these groups to return after the conflicts end; this has been the case for different groups on the Balkan and for Palestinian refugees. The lack of state institutions and dysfunctional political leadership in collapsed states makes these settings very problematic and the road to recovery is often very long.

People do not only move when there forced; many also try to move to other countries to get away from poverty and in order to get better opportunities. This has been the case many times throughout history and is still the case today. There are also other more disturbing trends like the Trafficking of People and Slavery attached to this problem; vulnerable people after conflicts may often end up being the victims of this type of activities.

Many talk about Bug Out Bags like a tool intended to support you for 72 hours; if your forced to leave your home it might be for good. Your home may not be there when you return or other conditions may make it impossible to return. Survival for most people more than knowing how to build a fire, navigate, build a shelter, purify water and signal for help. For most people making through everyday life is about having a job and being able to have an income.

Livelihoods and an Education
Knowledge, Skills and Experience are things that are always with you. If you are ever displaced being able to find a work in a different location or country can become much more important than having traditional survival related skills. An education is a valuable tool for many reasons;
• It means that you have some kind of specialized knowledge that everyone does not have.
• Many jobs like Doctors, Nurses, Dentists and Engineers are needed everywhere and the chances of finding a job are often high.
• You get the opportunity to get to know a lot of people and expend your social network; this can be just as important as the education itself during your life.
• You get learn how to work through and analyze large quantities of information, source criticism and methodology.

Different professions have a different status over the world but some are needed no matter what. Having an education or specialized profession does not only provide a form of security in your everyday life; for many that been forced to leave their homes it has provided an opportunity to start over. I suggest that no matter what your profession is that you try to expand your knowledge and get specialized knowledge related to this field. Unskilled jobs can be hard to find and the salary can often be very low.

Language Barriers and Discrimination is problems that can often face refugees and immigrants in their new settings. Discrimination can make it hard to find a job but also cause other problems like harassments and problems with law enforcement, institutions and other officials. Learning how to speak different languages can help you to minimize these problems but also make it possible for you to practice your profession in other settings. People how are forced to flee to other nations often find themselves in a long process before they are given a citizenship and may also have to cope with other challenges like physical and emotional trauma while adjusting to a new unfamiliar setting.

Never Stop Learning
Gaining knowledge, skills and experience is a constantly ongoing process. No one knows everything; we always have new things to learn. If you have the opportunity to get an education I suggest that you take the chance. Getting an education is a privilege; don’t waste the chance if you get it. For most people there are several ways to gain new knowledge; taking evening courses; joining different organizations; studying on your own or utilizing opportunities provided by your work.

If there is professions that you would like to learn don’t let anything stop you. It’s often common that the people around us may have expectations or strong opinions regarding what ways that we should walk. Find your own way and follow it.

Conclusion
Many Survivalist and Preppers approach the subject or evacuations or “Bugging Out” from a perspective that it is a tool intended to provide you with what you need to make it through the first time after a disaster. There is also a tendency to focus heavily on equipment such as Survival Knives, Flashlights, Pocket Survival Kit, Every Day Carry (EDC), Get Home Bags (GHB) and stockpiling equipment. Having the right equipment can be critical in many situations; but having the knowledge, skills, experience and physical fitness required to utilize this resources is just as important. Equipment and physical possessions can be lost in a matter of seconds from natural disasters or a fire. The knowledge, skills and experience that you have is something that you always carry with you. Survivors can find themselves in a situation when their home, their saving and their old jobs have been lost; being forced to travel to other regions or even other nations in order to find safety. Millions of people all around the world have been forced to take this step throughout history; if you ever are forced to make this transition a Bug Out Bag can be valuable tool; but having an education or a specialized profession can be much more important.

 

[Westfalia]

Sibi Totique: The Westfalian Risk Management Model

The Westfalian Risk Management Model
So after an extended period of writing The Free Online Survival Guide I would like to present my suggested Framework for Preparedness: The Westfalian Risk Management Model. The aim of the Framework is to provide tools for individuals to access their own situation and take measures that make sense for their individual situation and setting.

The First Part of the model regards two aspects; (1) analyzing your own particular situation and understanding what type of Risks that you face in your particular setting. (2) The Second Part is to know yourself and what resources you have available both in the form of equipment and supplies but also to understand your financial situation. The Third Part is to analyze your weak points and establish what Goals that you would like to reach and how to reach them.

Part One: Understanding Your Situation
The Risk Assessment
The First Part of the Framework is intended for help you to establish what type of Risks that you face. A tool that is often used by organizations that work with Crisis Management is Risk Assessments. A Risk Assessment is a structured tool to analyze the specific Risks you faced depending on the Probability and Consequences of specific Risks. Also keep in mind that most Risks can have a large variation; most Earthquakes can only be detected by electronic instruments but some can cause enormous devastation.

The Process:
1.) Identify Potential Risks
2.) Try to establish the Consequence and Probability of the Identified Risks
3.) Based on the Probability and Consequences of the calculate the Risk Factor

When you try to establish the potential consequences of Risks I suggest that you try to look at what type of impact they can have in form of Causalities; disruption or destruction of Infrastructure, Economic Impact and Other Type of Effects. For more on the effects of disasters see the article Analyzing Risks. I suggested that you don’t stare yourself blind on the specific Risk Factor of certain potential Risks; A Risk Assessment is a tool to give you a basic understanding of the potential Risks; it’s an Assessment and the reality you later face may not correspond very well with this Assessment. It’s also important to keep in mind that even when it comes to “experts” they often make very different Assessments when it comes to the potential Consequences and Probability of different Risks.

Blind Spots and Ignored Risks
A Risk Assessment gives a clear picture of how you perceive your situation and the Risks you face. Another critical aspect that is rarely discussed by Organizations within the Crisis Management Community is what risks that is not included in the Assessment or what Risks that is Ignored. Two common examples of Risks that is highly debated are Peak Oil and Man-Made Global Warming; accepted as a threat by some and ignored by others. A factor for both these Risks are that they doesn’t correspond very well with the way most economical and political institutions perceive our world and the ideal of economical growth. Other types of Risks that can fall outside Risk Assessments are Wars between Democratic Nations or Long Term Shortages of Natural Resources. The Important Aspect is that you think about your own perception of the world and what Risks that you ignore or believe are very unlikely.

The Point is that a Risk Assessment can be a valuable tool; but the events that have the highest impact tend to be Risks that falls outside what we perceive as normal. You should try to understand your own assumptions and what they are based upon. If you have the opportunity I suggest that you read the Risk Assessment made by your local or regional Crisis Management agency and keep this in mind; what type of Scenarios do they prepare for and what Scenarios don’t they prepare for?

Black Swans
There are major events taking place that has an enormous impact that is not predicated by anyone. These large deviations from the “normal” development is often called “Black Swans” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb how introduced the concept. These events can have disastrous effects like the Terrorist Attacks on 9/11 2001 but also a positive effect like the invention of the Internet. This is a very long and complicated subject and I highly recommend Talebs book on the subject; but the point is: events that have enormous consequences takes place all the time, and no one is able to predict them. There are Risks that you can know that you ignore; but there are also potential Risks that you don’t even know is there.

Your Setting
A Risk Assessment identifies some of the potential Risks that you face but it is also critical to link these Risks to your specific situation. If you live in a location where the temperatures during the winter can drop to very low levels it’s critical that you can cope with these temperatures if a natural or man-made disrupts the systems you depend upon for heat, If you live in a desert city that is dependent on water that is transported long distances it’s important that you can stay cool and that you need water storage that reflects this reality etc. Other factors like your housing situation and if you live a rural or urban setting are also important. Analyze your own situation and adapt accordingly; all settings produce their own specific opportunities and challenges; a SWOT analysis can be a good tool to get a better overview of your situation.

Part Two - Your Own Capacity
Know Yourself
Knowing the Potential Risks You Face is an important aspect of preparedness but understanding your own capacity to deal with this type of situations is equally important. As a Framework to analyze your own capacity I suggest that you focus on three personal aspects; (1) your own Knowledge, health and physical fitness, (2) a deeper look at your economical and financial situation and (3) what equipment and supplies that you have available.

Individual Aspects
Preparedness starts with You. You can have the most expensive equipment available in the world; if you lack the knowledge and skill required to use the equipment is of little use. Your knowledge, skills and experience, health and physical fitness allows you to use equipment, improvise and utilize its full potential.

Knowledge is everything you ever learned; from history, to languages, mathematics, how different types of natural disasters work; symptoms of various diseases, how one navigates, knowing your local terrain etc. What type of proffesions do you know? What type of formal and informal training do you have? Start with listing what type of knowledge that you posses. During this process you will also discover something else; what you don’t know.

Skills and Experience are similar to knowledge; but often knowing how something should be done does not mean that you actually can do it. This is the case of everything from first aid, to building a fire, orienteering, swimming, driving a car etc. What types of skills do you posses and what type of relevant experience do you have that can help you deal with a Crisis or Survival Situation?

You’re Health and Physical Fitness is important for several reasons; having the strength required to carry a person or lift a heavy object can mean the difference between life and death; so can having the required endurance to walk to safety. But this aspect is also important during your everyday life; exercise reduces stress; makes you more alert and reduce the chance of contracting diseases like diabetes or having a heart attack. This area also includes other aspects like having the right immunization and a good dental health. I suggest that you start with visiting a doctor and dentist for a check-up to get a better understanding of your current situation. Health and Physical Fitness is also a long term investment that is very important since people today live longer and longer lives and thereby also has to be able to make a livelihood and work a longer period of time.

Some other question that you can ask yourself
• What is your Body Mass Index based on your Height and Weight?
• How often do you exercise?
• What is the longest distance you have ever walked?
• How long could you Swim if you had to?
• How is your Dental health?
• Do you feel Healthy?
• Do you feel Happy and what type of activities make you the most Happy?

Economical Situation
One aspect that is often not discussed when it comes to Preparedness is a person’s economical situation. Having a solid economical situation can give the person the means that a person both has a better chance of adjusting to a changing situation but this also puts up limits to what kind of equipment, housing solutions, training and housing that can be afforded. It is quite clear that disasters does not affect all people equally; people with a high income normally has safer housing that can withstand natural disasters, has better access to education, information and the ability to leave if necessary. I suggest that you start with analyzing your economical situation in-depth; what sources of income do you have? Is there any commodity that you produce for your own needs like growing food; generating energy through solar panels etc? The second part of your analyze should cover your expenses; how much do you pay for your housing, electricity, heating, gas, telephone, internet access, insurances? How much is your expenses for food each month? Do you have any kind of savings and how much? Do you have any kind of debt and how big is it?

• Income
• Fixed expenses; Rent, Electricity, Gas, Cars, Mortgages, Food, Water etc
• Other expenses; entertainment, magazines, snacks etc
• Savings
• Loans and Debt

Equipment and Supplies
Having the right equipment can often help you during different types of Crisis and Survival Situations; but there is often a tendency to have very strong focus on this area and not putting much focus on other aspects of preparedness. I would suggest that you start with making an inventory list of what equipment that you have today. This can be an easy task for some but might be a much harder task for others. When doing so I suggest that you try to organize the Equipment into different categories such as

• Water and Water Purification
• Food – Supplies and other resources like Gardens
• Cooking
• Light
• Clothing and Footwear
• Sanitation and Hygiene
• Heating and Energy
• Communication
• First Aid and Medical Supplies
• Tools

Part Three - Establishing Goals and the Way Forward
When you have completed the first two steps you have a basic understanding both of the Risks that you face but also what type of tools that you have to cope with these Risks. From here it’s time to establish your personal Goals and how you’re planning to achieve them. I suggest that you start with establishing what your weak points are and what areas that is the most important for you. From you can construct a Plan for how to deal with these weaknesses.

One good point to start is to analyze how long you can support yourself in various areas; how much water to you have available? How long can your food storage support you? How long can you maintain your current expenses if you would lose your job? How much supplies do have available in the form of toilet paper, washing up liquid, washing powder, fuel and other necessities? Asking yourself this type of question can help you to establish how long you can endure different type of scenarios without external assistance and help you to balance your preparations.

After you established your Goals it’s important that you approach these Goals from a realistic perspective. If you for example would like to pay of large debts or go from being relatively unfit to a having a very high physical fitness it’s important to understand that this will take time and an effort. Getting from one point to another is a process. By dividing your analysis of your situation into different categories it’s relatively easy to see where your strong and weak points are. The point of this is also to establish balance and avoid that you put all you effort into one category like stockpiling supplies. As an example having a year’s supply of food is not going to help you in a long term emergency if you only have enough water available to make it three days or if you deplete all you’re saving so that you can’t make it a single month if you become unemployed.

Interim Goals
One method that is often used in project management is to establish interim goals in order to break down a larger task into more manageable components. For example if you have the goal of creating a food storage for one year you can break down this task into multiple steps and progress with task over time instead of buying all the supplies at once. This is often a good method since it will help you to discover what works best for you as you progress with task, no matter if it’s about figuring out what type of exercise that works best for you, what food you should store and how or to create savings.

End
Creating your plan should not only be an aspect for crisis and survival situations; it’s also about how you want to live your life. It seems to be more and more common that individuals spend all their time, resources and energy on prepping; having the ability to cope with a Crisis situation is an important aspect that can mean the difference between life and death. The aim of this model is to help individuals get a balanced situation to help them prepare for a various forms of threats and problems; not to center their lives on preparedness.

 

[Riot]

Keep up the good work, West

 

[Westfalia]

Sibi Totique: The Battle of Perception has begun

On the 30th of March 2012 the Expert Group for Environmental Studies, a group attached to the Swedish Government presented the report “ <broken link removed> ”. The report is one of the most critical reports released so far and presents the perspective that the theory of Peak Oil is wrong and that it is not built upon a scientific basis. In an article in a Swedish Newspaper the main author of the report Øystein Noreng argues that the theory of Peak Oil creates confusion and that the idea can lead to political decisions that can harm society.

Looking back
During the last 150 year human civilization has gone through an unprecedented development. The World population has from around 2 billion people to a level of 7 billion people in 2012 and is expected to rise to a level of around 10 billion in 2050. During this period of time fossil fuels has become a major part of providing the energy required to power the process of industrialization. The era started with the drilling of the first oil well by Colonel James Drake in 1859; in 1876 the US produced around 10 million barrels of oil – per year. In the beginning most of the oil was used for kerosene but oil was gradually starting to replace coal as a fuel to power ships since its much higher energy content allowed for greater range and speed. And with the introduction of the automobile the consumption increased sharply; In 1902 there was just over 20000 automobiles in the United States; a number that increased to over 1 million by the end of the First World War and today there is over 250 million passenger vehicles in the United States.

For a long period of time the United States was the world leading oil producer. At the time of the second World War the US produced around 4 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d) and the oil production continued to increase up until the 1970 when the US produced 9,5 mb/d per day, from that point the US production level has started to decrease; today the domestic US production is around 5,5 mb/d (US EIA). In order to cope with the loss of production the solution has been to import oil from other countries; in 1998 for the first time in history the US imported half of the oil it uses. This is not however not unique for the United States; in 1992 the oil imports to China became bigger than the domestic production.

Drill Baby Drill
One argument that is often presented is that exploration within the US has been stalled by environmental considerations and policies that have prevented the production of oil to increase. Some aspects can be interesting to look closer at; the World’s 20 largest oil fields currently produce around 19 million barrels of oil per day, or around 25% of the world’s total production. The majority of these fields where discovered before 1970, none of these field was discovered after 1985. In other words; most of them was discovered around the second half of the last century, and this is despite the technological advancement that has been made in this field.

So why isn’t the US Government doing anything about the situation? Why isn’t prospecting increasing in order to break the cycle and make the US energy independent? One problem here is that the numbers is rarely debated in the media. Saudi Arabia is the world largest Oil producer; in 2010 the country produced around 10 million barrels of oil per day, as previous discussed The United States produced around 5,5 million barrels per day. This clearly gives an indicator that the Saudis almost produce twice the amount oil per day compared to the US, but this is not where the story gets interesting. In order to achieve this oil the Saudis have 2900 producing wells. The United States need 370.000 wells in order to produce half the amount of the Saudis. The Saudis employ just fewer than 100.000 people in the oil and gas sector; the United States over 2 million (IEA 2011: 139).

The drilling off shore has become a major part of the US oil production; the technology today makes it possible to reach enormous depths in order to extract oil; other technologies like hydraulic fracturing has also started being used but even this has not allowed the US to become energy independent. That there are also risks to operating under such extreme conditions became clear after the Deep Water Horizon incident in the Mexican Gulf and in the case of hydraulic fracturing there are concerns surrounding the possible effects on ground water and the amount of water required for the process.

Changing Perceptions
The Idea of Growth is of the most well rotted ideas in our modern society. We are constantly informed about the development in the stock market, the profits of corporations and the development of the Gross Domestic Product of different countries. And we expect them to increase; year after year. This has been the normal state for the last 150 years; all people how have lived through this time has experienced an unprecedented development. The idea of Growth is a fundamental part of all current political and economical institutions. It’s a central idea preached by capitalists, socialists and even within the Green Movement. The thing that the idea of Growth does not take into consideration is however that there might be physical limitations to Growth in the form of Oil, Coal, Gas, Minerals, Fresh Water, Land, Forests and other resources.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is one of the world’s leading organizations that have been producing forecasts for the entire energy sector since 1998 in the report series World Energy Outlook. The Outlook for oil in 2000 indicated that in the year 2020 the world would consume 115 mb/d of oil. Up until the year 2010 the IEA indicated that the production of Crude Oil would continue to increase until at least 2030. But in 2010 something changed. The IEA produced a new forecast where it concluded that the production of Crude Oil most likely peaked in 2006 with a production of around 70mb/d (IEA 2010: 125). The IEA does however believe that production will remain on a level of just under 70 mb/d until 2035 and that the production of non conventional oil sources and bio fuels will increase so that the total amount of production will increase from 85,7mb/d to 107,1 mb/d in 2035. The IEA standpoint that we have already reached the peak in crude oil production was a very sharp turn from the previous outlooks. The US Energy Information Administration (US EIA) makes a very different assessment; in the latest outlook the US EIA believes that production of Crude Oil will continue to increase until 2035 with more than 12 extra million barrels per day adding up to a level of 112 mb/d compared to the IEA prediction of 107,1 mb/d in 2035 (US EIA 2011: 26).

The IEA lifts other interesting aspect as well; those fields that produced 69 mb/d of crude oil in 2010 in expected to decrease in their production to a level of 22mb/d in 2035. The level of production is however expected to remain of a level of just under 70mb/d from Crude Oil yet to be developed and yet to be found. This new expected findings would have to be more than four times larger than the production of Saudi Arabia; any so far only one Saudi Arabia has been discovered.

Bending the Map
In the book "Deep Survival" Laurence Gonzales discuss what happens to people how get lost in the wild. Lawrence argue that getting lost is something anyone can do; no matter how well trained or experienced you are; it’s very easy going from being having a nice time in the outdoors to being a victim struggling to survive. When reality does not match the mental map we have of our surroundings it very easy to continue ahead like we still know where we are going; in orienteering this is called bending the map. “You’re trying to make to make reality conform to your expectations rather than to see what is really there” (Gonzales 2003: 158-163).

The expectations we have today created from 150 years of continual growth makes it very easy to believe that what we can expect from the future will be even more growth. The reserves in Saudi Arabia and many other OPEC countries is an issue that is often debated. After the nationalization of the oil production in Saudi Arabia and the low oil price in the 1980:s many Saudi Arabia raised their reported reserves significantly; from 107,9 billion barrels to over 260 billion barrels in 1988. And the reported reserves in have remained the same; even after 24 years of production. The IEA expects the production is Saudi Arabia to increase to 15 mb/d in 2035. If this will happen or not is impossible to answer. But in 2010 a diplomatic cable from the embassy in Riyadh discussed and interview with Dr Sadad al-Husseini the former Executive Vice President for Exploration and Production is Aramco. Al-Husseini reported that he believes that the reserves are exaggerated by around 40% and that Saudi Arabia will reach a maximum production level of 12 mb/d and then start to decline in production somewhere around 2020 (WikiLeaks 2010).

The Situation Today
The United States has twice as many cars per persons compared to Western Europe. The infrastructure is also more focused on the cars as a means of transport leaving many with no alternative to using a car. The Gas Prices are currently around 4 dollars per Gallon in the US; one of the highest levels in history. The US prices are still around half the price compared to many countries in Europe where the price is over 8 dollars a Gallon since the US taxes on fuels are comparatively low. Since so many Americans are dependent upon a motor vehicle for transportation the US is very vulnerable if the access to oil will decrease and if the prices will continue to rise. Higher oil prices might also affect other prices like food prices. Many argue that we will find technological solutions for the problems we face and an increase in price will drive the advancement of alternatives. If this will be the case or not I do not know and I will not pretend that I do. To me it’s clear that our expectations of growth are shaping the way the people of the world and its institutions are looking at the world. It’s also clear that the perception of institutions like the IEA gradually has started to shift while other institutions like the United States Energy Information Administration still has the same perception that the IEA had a few years ago. How that is right and how that is wrong only time can tell.

If the Peak becomes Reality
The lack of discussion of the subject is the largest problem in my opinion in combination with the idea of infinite Growth. Many discuss the access to oil like it will be there or it will not be there. If a Peak in the World Production of Oil is reached it does not mean that all oil will suddenly be gone; but it will mean that the total production will start to decline over time; making it a process and not an event. One can only speculate concerning the effects of such an outcome but this would mean that we would be going from a Paradigm of constant Growth to a Paradigm when we will have less and less of a commodity that we have gotten use to having widely available. Some possible effects could include;

· If it becomes clear to nations that things are changing its possible that we will see an increased level of nationalization of the oil production in order to gain control over the oil production making it hard for countries how depend upon import of fuels to gain the access to this oil on the international market.

· The Prices of Oil might continue to rise to unprecedented levels and we might also start to see shortages meaning that there oil will not be available in the same quantity that we have been used to.

· Rationing of oil and fuels and other measures like reducing the speed limits

· It’s also possible that this will have a major impact on the relations between nations leading to conflict over the resources available. It’s also possible that states where oil revenues has been a major source of income might experience social unrest, internal conflict or even state collapse if oil revenues start to decline; the Arabian Spring can be seen as a case of this development.

Conclusion
All major political parties and modern economical institutions are focused on the notion of economical growth. The forecasts regarding the availability concerning oil have for a long time had a very positive outlook. In the year 2000 it was believed that we would reach a level of 120mb/d by 2020, today some institutions believe that we will reach a level of around 107mb/d by 2035 and that the Global Peak in the production of Crude Oil already has been reached and that we will face a permanent decline while other fuels made from Coal, Gas and Unconventional Oil will continue to increase.

Peak Oil has for a long time been a subject that has not been widely discussed by political parties and international institutions; the report produced by the Swedish Expert for Environmental Studies presents a new shift directly attacking the theory and the researchers that presents it. The author of the report and well known economist presents a quite well written report focusing on the markets dynamics and the technological development as tools that will solve the problems we encounter. What the future outcome will be is impossible for me to answer; but one thing that can be seen throughout history is that experts that have been working in an old paradigm often have a very hard time adjusting when paradigms shift since the knowledge and rules from the old paradigm does not apply to the new paradigm. It’s also clear that IEA was unable to predict the Peak of Crude Oil and that it took several years after the Peak for them to realize that something had changed. In this case it seems like the IEA was “bending the map”.

 

[Riot]

Sibi Totique: The Battle of Perception has begunSo why isn't the US Government doing anything about the situation? Why isn't prospecting increasing in order to break the cycle and make the US energy independent?

One word...money. If I was invested in Halliburton / KBR (one of the major government contractors overseas) would it not suit me to keep the wars going?

Bending the Map
In the book "Deep Survival" Laurence Gonzales discuss what happens to people how get lost in the wild. Lawrence argue that getting lost is something anyone can do; no matter how well trained or experienced you are; it's very easy going from being having a nice time in the outdoors to being a victim struggling to survive. When reality does not match the mental map we have of our surroundings it very easy to continue ahead like we still know where we are going; in orienteering this is called bending the map. "You're trying to make to make reality conform to your expectations rather than to see what is really there" (Gonzales 2003: 158-163).

I'm glad I'm not the only person that has read Deep Survival. What I thought that was interesting to note is how most of the professional divers drown to death from removing their own mouth pieces (an automatic response initiated by a lack of oxygen to remove the object from their mouths instead of increasing the oxygen flow on their tank). We have to fight the urge to panic to make survival decisions. There has to be a balance of accepting the situation for what it is (an emergency) and reacting appropriately to make the situation better, not worse.

For example: I realize that I am lost. I must have taken the wrong trail. I look for my map and it is gone. Climbing a tree to see my surrounds may seam like a good idea at first glance...but what if I fall and hurt myself? My water is out as it is and the sun is going down- my survival priorities should be food water and shelter, not climbing a big tree to find my way!

Many argue that we will find technological solutions for the problems we face and an increase in price will drive the advancement of alternatives.

Ever heard of the excise tax?

We most certainly have the ability to use alternative fuels, but too many people are busy filling their pockets with our money to change anything. Ever wonder why there isn't an abundance of bio diesel producers in the US? I've, personally, known people that have tried...the government has a lock on oil and discourages anyone from making or using any fuel other than gasoline bought and paid for at the pump. If you try to circumvent the excise tax by making your own fuels or converting your vehicle to run on anything but gas/diesel (or one of those Electric Charging Stations for those electric cars) and drive on a public road you have, in effect, broken the law and you are subject to IRS penelties and possible prison time for tax evasion. Why? When you fill up the pump, you pay the tax on the gas. That tax goes to pay for the roads. The excise tax is a "use tax" to use the public roads.

 

[Westfalia]

Sibi Totique: Another looks at the Bug Out Bag

A subject that never seems to go out of style in the Prepper movement is Bug Out Bags (BOB). These types of kits are known under many names; Get Out Of Dodge (GOOD) Bags, 72 Hours Kits and I’m Never Coming Home (INCH) Bags. What these survival kits have in common is that the kits are intended to be comprehensive survival kits intended to provide you everything you need in a survival or crisis situation. Many discuss the subjects of survival kits like it’s a one size fits all concept; this however not the way that I suggest that you approach the subject. Survival is about adapting to the specific situations and challenges you face and your BOB must reflect this reality.

A Bug Out Bag is only a tool in order to make it easier for you to deal with extraordinary situations; but it is still you that will have to deal with this situation and in order to do this you must have the health and physical fitness, skills and experience, knowledge and will to survive that is required to do so.

The Clothing makes the Prepper
Before we get into the subject of what to put into the BOB lets go into the subjects of clothing. The elements present one of biggest challenges in any survival situation. It normally takes few days to die from dehydration and several weeks to die from starvation but a combination of wind, rain or snow can kill an unprotected person in a matter of hours. Every setting presents its own challenges; the terrain, topography, temperatures and seasonal variations are just some of the aspects that you have to take into consideration.

The first thing I would suggest that you get is hiking boots. There are many type of footwear to choose from but in general I would recommend hiking boots as your primary footwear. There are several types intended for the arctic, jungle and desert. The important aspect is that your footwear can deal with terrain and setting you face. In addition to your boots I suggest that you choose your socks carefully; socks made from merino wool or wool still provides some heat even if they get wet. Wools socks or not; walking around with soaking wet boots can mess up your entire day so make sure that you bring extra socks. Gaiters are an excellent complement that can help keeping water, snow and dirt from getting into your boots in the first place. Having an extra pair of light weight shoes in the pack can be very valuable if you have to dry your boots after a day’s walk. It can also be useful after you established camp; the models from Fivefingers or the Trailglove shoes from Merrell can be worth checking out.

Base Layers
Base layers is the layer of clothing that you have closest to your body; the idea is that your base layer should provide warmth and provide insulation even if it’s wet and dry easily. Normally two major materials is used; synthetic fabrics and merino wool. Synthetic fabrics are often cheaper than merino wool but have the disadvantage that they can melt if subjected to fire or extreme heat. Merino wool is a natural product with several advantages over synthetic fabrics

· Merino wool can in most cases be washed in a washing machine and does not have to be hand washed as regular wool.
· Merino wool does not irritate the skin in the same way as regular wool
· Merino wool does not melt if subjected to fire or heat
Merino wool does not contract an odor as easily as synthetic fabrics

It is often said that “cotton kills” since it does not provide warmth if it gets wet from rain or perspiration in the same way as base layers made from synthetic fabrics or merino wool. The performance of all base layers is lowered when it gets wet, therefore I suggest that you include at least one extra base layer shirt in your pack; having an extra layer can allow you to change your layers and allow the wet one to dry and it can also be used to regulate your clothing accordingly to the temperature by simply adding an additional layer if needed. I would not recommend cotton as your primary base layer, but if you only have cotton shirts make sure that you bring an extra in order to minimize the problem. In some situations the disadvantage cotton presents can be turned into an advantage by using a base layer made from merino wool or synthetic fabrics as your first layer and then add a second layer made from cotton.. If you have to perform intense physical tasks the cotton layer will absorb the perspiration through the first layer and help keeping the first layer dry.

If you keep you extra clothing in a water proof packs sack you increase the chance it will be dry if you ever need it; this is particularly important if you would fall through thin ice and need to change your clothing immediately.

Mid Layers
Mid layers is intended to provide you with insulation between your base layer and outer shell. Fleece is a light weight synthetic material that is that provides excellent insulation. There are countless brands on the market; a model with a zipper makes it easy to get the jacket on and off as you need it. Two of my personal favorites are the Houdini Power Houdi and the Houdini Power Jacket. There are also other solutions like shirts with either down or synthetic like prima loft that provide extreme insulation during cold weather. These solutions can often be compressed just like a sleeping bag and generally take up very little space in a pack. These solutions are often to warm do wear when you’re on the move but can provide great insulation and extra security when you break for camp or have to stop.

Shell
The shell is the outer layer that provides you with a shield against wind and rain. There are many different types of shell jackets; most regular shell jackets are made with some kind of membrane like Gore-Tex, with these shell layers you can often make do without additional rain clothing. These jackets “breath” and let water vapor be transported through the membrane but stop drops of water in the form of rain from reaching your mid and base layers. Regular shell jackets than can often be somewhat uncomfortable to wear and they can sometimes also make noise while moving something than can be a problem while engaging in activities when silence is required like hunting.

Soft shell is another fabric that is softer than regular shell jackets and more comfortable to carry. It does not provide the same amount of protection as a regular shell jacket but is in my experience sufficient for most situations. The main advantage is that soft shell jacket often “breath” better and thereby keeping you drier if you engage in intense physical activities and that it is also a more quite material to move around in. Soft shell and Shell Jackets are the most common outer layers; but there are also other options like extremely densely woven cotton that provides a quite good and resistance to wind and rain and have a much higher breathing than normal shell and soft shell materials. This type of cotton has been used in survival suits for fighter pilots for its ability to keep water for some time but still let some air through.

Rain Clothing and Ponchos can also be an alternative; since they often provide an even better protection than shell jackets in extreme conditions; but since they don’t “breath” very well they will often make you wet from perspiration if used during intense physical activities. If you go for a poncho I suggest that you get a pair of rain trousers as well since a poncho does not provide a full cover for your legs. There are also excellent combination shelters that work both as a Poncho, Tarp and Bivi-Bag; the Fjellduk from Helsport and Bivanorak from Hilleberg are two examples. There is ultra-light rain clothing that has a very low weight; as an example the combination of the Atomic Jacket and Atomic Pants from Montane has a combined weight of only 525 grams.

Gloves
In cold and wind your hands is one of the most exposed parts of your body. A pair of gloves is important in order to stay warm but also in order to avoid injuries. The Montane Sabertooth Soft shell Gloves is one of my personal favorites that works well in most situations and provides good flexibility if you have to engage in tasks that require some dexterity. Thin leather working gloves is another great option, but if you want gloves that provide even more protection there are gloves especially intended to provide protection from cuts and knives from Hatch and other companies.

Your head
Having a hat or cap is extremely important in cold climates since you will lose much heat otherwise. A cap made from wool works well in most situations but in extreme condition a shell cap like the Lowe Alpin Mountain Cap can be a good alternative. In warm climate a hat or baseball cap can provide protection from the sun. There are many for of multifunction scarfs like the Buff available that can be used as a scarf, balaclava and cap and in many other configurations that can be a good complement to a hat. The Shemag is a larger scarf normally made from cotton that can also be for a number of other uses like a towel.

What’s in your Pockets?
Before we start discussing Bug Out Bags it can be a good idea to Every Day Carry (EDC). EDC is what you normally with you pockets on an everyday basis. Disaster and Crisis Situations can take place when you least expect it and what you have on your person may be all that you will have available.

I suggest that you try to carry a few basic items. A compact Folding Knife or a Swiss Army Knife is a great tool that will do most tasks that you need. The Fällkniven U-4 is one of my personal favorite for EDC, its 22 grams provides an extremely light weight knife and it has an excellent blade steel. Some type of fire starter like BIC lighter is very cheap and works well for most situations. A watch and a compact flashlight can also be good addition.

The Bug Out Bag

The Bag
What kind of bag or back-pack you should choose depends on long number of different factors. In general I would recommend that you for a backpack since it allow you to comfortably carry the equipment you need. It is however possible to use a long number of different alternatives like a Rolling Luggage Bag, Duffel bags or hard case bags like the ones from Pelican.

One of the most common recommendations for a Bug Out Bag is to use a 72 Hours Assault Pack or some type of tactical bag with MOLLE straps, extra Pouches etc like the packs from Maxpedition or Kifaru, These often have many options for arranging your equipment and the option of adding extra pouches. This packs have the advantage of providing excellent options for organizing the equipment; but they can often lack comfort; something that is critical if you ever have to carry the pack for long distances. When you choose your pack I suggest that you prioritize two things; Comfort and Function. It does not matter how your packs look, the important aspect is that it is comfortable to carry and that it provides the function you need from it. Having an Internal or External frame in your pack makes the pack more comfortable to carry, especially if you have to carry a heavy load. Make sure that the shoulder straps and waist belt fits is comfortable and that the size of the bag is the right one for the length of your back. Making sure that the equipment you carry in your pack stays dry is also important; by using waterproof pack sacks or a backpack cover can minimize these types of problems.

Shelter
If you have to leave your home you might need somewhere to take shelter for the night if you can’t find other accommodations. What type of shelter you should get depends on your situation, your climate and the local terrain.

Tents have the major advantage that they can provide a shelter in almost any location; even if there are no trees or other types of materials that can be used to provide a shelter. A tent can also keep bugs and mosquitoes out and allow you to get the best rest you can. A model with a single pole is normally the lightest model that can found; the more poles a tent have the less sensitive the tent is to extreme weather. A tent is a particularly effective solution if you have to treat a wounded or hypothermic person since it provides excellent shelter from the elements.

Tarps can be a good alternative to improvise different kinds of shelter and they can also be used to provide extra protection over a regular tent. They are often quite cheap and there are light weight models available in most hardware stores. There are also ultra light models of high quality available from Hilleberg and Exped; but these are very expensive compared to a regular tarp.

Hammocks or Hennessy Hammocks can be effective and light weight alternatives; especially in relatively warm climates where you easily find trees and other places to attach the hammock.

A Sleeping Bag and Sleeping Mattress can help you stay warm in cold climates and provide insulation from the ground. A light weight sleeping bag is often enough to keep you alive even in quite cold settings but its recommended that you try to get a bag that is specifically chosen for the temperatures you encounter. Sleeping bags with down as insullation is often very light weight and provides excellent insulation as long as they remain dry. But if a sleeping bag made from down gets wet it loses much of its insulating properties; something that can be fatal. Sleeping bags with synthetic insulation are often heavier and bulkier but on the other hand they provide a somewhat better insulation if they get wet.

Survival Knives
A knife is one of the most important tools you can carry for preparedness. Since its one of the most important tools I suggest that you carry two knives so that you have one extra if you would lose or break one of your knives. I suggest that you use your EDC knife as your backup knife and that you choose a sturdy knife for your BOB. Different types of knives have different strength and weaknesses. A multi-tool like the models from Leatherman is excellent for many types of different tasks but can often be quite heavy. If you engage in outdoor activities and bush craft I would suggest that you go for a fixed blade knife. Some recommended models for EDC;

· The Fällkniven U-2 or U-4
· Benchmade 530
· Gerber Hinderer CLS
· Emerson La Griffe
· Victorinox Climber Swiss Army Knife
· Leatherman Wave Multi Tool

The main advantage with a fixed blade knife is that it does not have any moving parts that can break; even the strongest folding knife will be damaged if you use it repeatedly for splitting firewood or other heavy duty tasks for extended periods of time. Some recommended models:

· The Fällkniven F1 or S1
· ESEE-3 or ESEE-4
· Mora 2000, Swedish FireKnife or Mora Bushcraft Survival

If you live in an area where you might end up traveling through forests or similar terrain an axe or folding saw can be an excellent complement to a survival knife if you have to construct shelters or gather fire wood.

Light
During night and low light conditions having some kind of flashlight or headlamp available can be critical if you are trying to signal for help, perform first aid or build a shelter. Modern LED lights can provide much light in combination with a long battery life and they are also much more robust than older incensement bulbs. Some recommended models

· The Fenix LD-12 or LD-22
· 4Sevens Quark Tactical QTA
· ZebraLight H502d Headlamp

Fire Starter
A fire can provide you with many aspects in a survival situation; it can help you prepare food, boil water in order to disinfects it, provide you with heat if you’re cold, light so that you can signal for help and comfort. Matches is one of the easiest way to start a fire, the main disadvantage is that they often don’t work if subjected to water or dirt; therefore make sure that you keep them in a waterproof bag or container. A normal lighter like a BIC lighter last longer than many boxes of matches but have the disadvantage that they can break or stop working if subjected to rain, dirt or snow.A Fire Steel has the main advantage that it works no matter if its subjected to rain, dirt or snow; but it requires practice and that you know what type of tinder that works best in order to be used effectively. Tinder can help you to start a fire more easily; one of the most effective types of tinder is to take cotton balls and soak them in petroleum jelly, another effective but more expensive solution is WetFire from UST.

Pocket Survival Kits
A Pocket Survival Kit is a compact kit containing some basic tools that can be critical to have during a survival situation. A Pocket Survival Kit can help you keeping some extra equipment like a sewing kit, extra fire starter, button compass, a compact blade, fishing kit, snare wire and other essentials organized in your pack. A Pocket Survival Kit can also be carried on your person as a back-up in case you would loose your Bug Out Bag.

· BCB - Combat Survival Kit
· ESEE - Basic Survival Kit
· Pro Survival Kit Company – Master Pro Survival Kit

 

[Westfalia]

Water and Water Purification
Water is a critical part in any survival situation, an individual will only survive a few days without water and even small loses in fluid will have a large impact on the physical and mental capacity. How much water you should carry in your Bug Out Bag depends on several factors; if you live in an area where clean water is easy to find it does not make much sense to carry much water in your pack since water is very heavy to carry. But if you live in an area where water is very hard to find and the climate very hot you will have to adapt your Bug Out Bag accordingly.

I also suggest that you add some type of equipment to purify water either by disinfect the water using water purification tablets or filtering the water using a water purification filter. Water borne diseases can cause various forms of illnesses; by taking measures you can reduce the risk of contracting such disease. Water borne diseases can also spread after natural disasters like earthquakes that often break pipes so that waste water and fresh water mix resulting in a situation where water that was previously safe no longer is.

Recommended Water Containers
· Nalgene
· Klean Kanteen
· Camelbak Water Bladder

Recommended Water Purification Filters
· Katadyn Pocket
· MSR MiniWorks EX
· Aquamira Frontier

Food and Cooking
Normally it takes a few weeks for an individual to die from famine if no food of any kind is available. The lack of food is however a problem during a survival situation for a number of reasons; the lack of food reduce a person’s stamina and ability to generate heat making them more vulnerable to hypothermia but also affect the mind and the ability to reason. The psychological reactions to not having any food available can also be severe; after only a few days this often turns into an obsession

I therefore suggest that you try to include some kind of food in your BOB. Freeze dried rations have the main advantage that they take up very little room in your pack and they are also very light; normally a ration has a weight of just over 100 grams. Freeze dried rations often have a shelf life of a couple of years and should be rotated on a regular basis. The main disadvantage is that freeze dried rations require extra water (hot water), they are often expensive and your stomach might not appreciate to eat only freeze dried for over an extended period of time.

Recommended stoves
· Ebsit Pocket Stove
· Soto Micro Regulator Gas Stove
· Primus OmniLite Ti
· Trangia 27-6 UL

First Aid
Physical injuries can easily occur during outdoor activities, in your everyday life and as a result of Man-Made or Natural Disasters. In order to prepare for this learning First Aid and Disaster Medicine is very important. A First Aid Kit can provide a good tool kit that can help you to treat injuries more effectively and by having sterile bandages and other equipment available reduce the risk of infections. I also suggest that you include blister plasters, pain killers and anti-diarrheal tablets in your first aid kit in addition to any prescription medication that you might require.

Hygiene
Normally hygiene is not the most important aspect of making it through short term emergencies; but having the access to soap, a towel, toilet paper and a tooth brush can help you stay clean and reduce the risk of infections especially during long lasting emergencies. In addition to this some basic items for hygiene will help keeping your spirit up something that can be very important.

Other
Bug Out Bags is often discussed as a tool to survive in the wilderness; but for many people living in cities during an evacuation it may be much more important to have some cash and credit card available, a charger for your cell phone or your passport and ID. Having the correct medical insurance and insurance for your property is often very important to handle the economical aftermath of a disaster. There are also almost always personal needs like prescription glasses or specific medication that must be included.

Smart Phones
Modern smart phones are excellent tools that can provide you with the ability to communicate through social networks, e-mail and other digital means but can also provide tools like GPS and map so that you easily find your way around. One the main drawbacks are the capacity of the battery that is often depleted fast using the applications. A cell phone charger can be an excellent thing to have in your pack, but in many situations the electrical grid may be down or unavailable. There are excellent compact lithium-ion power packs on the market that with a capacity of around 3500-5000 ; enough to charge a modern smart phone twice or more. There are also more comprehensive solutions that combine solar charges and massive li-ion batteries like the Powermonkey Extreme. Another drawback is that these phones are sensitive to the elements and must be treated carefully; sometimes just dropping the phone on the ground is enough to break the screen. One way of minimizing this problem is to get a water proof container or a custom fitted case; especially if you use your phone while biking this type of solution can be very helpful since it allows to use navigation functions without having to hold the phone in your hand; some excellent solutions is available through the company UltimateAddons.

In most situations cell phones provides the most effective way to communicate and call for help; but there are also other tools like the SPOT that can send SOS messages using satellites that contain your exact position using GPS. Other more basic tools can include whistles, signal mirrors or strobes that can be used to attract attention.

The Practical Aspect
The Bug Out Bag is often discussed as something that has to be perfect; every single part of equipment has to be the best piece than can be bought for money – or your dead. So how important is it to have the perfect Bug Out Bag? My answer would be that the BOB itself isn’t the most critical component. The most important aspect is YOU. There are situations when a BOB can really make a difference for your chances to survive a disaster, but the majority of natural disasters and man-made disasters don’t call for an evacuation in order to survive.

What type of activities do you normally engage in?
When you build your BOB I would suggest that you try to find equipment that you need for the type of outdoor activities that you normally engage in like hiking, hunting, camping and other activities. One of the most important aspects is that you know your equipment; how to use it, its limitations and strengths so that you can utilize it in the best way.

Building a high quality Bug Out Bag can set you back literary thousands of dollars; there is basically no upper limit for the potential price. If you build a setup only intended to be used during emergencies you might end up with an extremely expensive setup that you will never enjoy or use. The equipment you choose should work just as well for your regular needs as for your need during an emergency.

Conclusion
Having a specific kit for evacuations can be critical for some type of emergencies; but far from all disasters require this capacity in order for people to survive. A Bug Out Bag can provide you with tools during other situations

· Extra warmth in form of a sleeping bag in case the electrical grid goes down

· Light in the form of a flashlight or headlamp in case of black out

· The ability to prepare food if your regular stove stops working

· The ability to store and purify water

· A first aid kit in case of accidents in your home

· Tools in the form of a knife or multi-tool

In the Prepper and Survivalist community many often discuss preparedness in terms of discussing a complete and sudden collapse of modern society; in some cases there are also references to conspiracy theories and fictional literature. I suggest that you primary focus when building a kit is the specific Natural and Man-Made disasters that you may encounter in your specific setting by making a basic Risk Assessment.

Checklist

Clothing
[ ] Long sleeve base layer shirt (I recommend Merino Wool)
[ ] Short sleeve base layer shirt
[ ] Change of underwear
[ ] Hat or Watch cap
[ ] Gloves
[ ] Buff, Scarf or Shemag
[ ] Shell Jacket (Waterproof and Wind Proof)
[ ] Warm long sleeve shirt
[ ] Heavy Duty Pants
[ ] Poncho, Rain Clothing, Bivi-Poncho, Bivanorak or Fjellduk
[ ] Hiking Boots
[ ] 2 pair of Extra socks
[ ] Watch with a button compass on the wrist band

Backpack
[ ] Backpack
[ ] Waterproof Dry Sacks or Waterproof Backpack Cover

Shelter
[ ] Sleeping bag, Sleeping bag liners helps to extend the lifetime of your sleeping bag
[ ] Sleeping mattress, Hammock or Hennessy Hammock
[ ] Tarp, Tent, Bivanorak, Fjellduk or Bivi-Bag

Light
[ ] Flashlight or/and Headlamp (LED)
[ ] Extra batteries (Lithium)

Fire
[ ] Matches in Waterproof Container
[ ] Lighter
[ ] Fire Steel
[ ] Tinder

Survival Knives
[ ] Fixed Blade Knife
[ ] Back Up Knife: examples could be a Folding Knife, Compact Fixed Blade Knife, Multi Tool or Swiss Army Knife
[ ] Sharpener

Pocket Survival Kit
[ ] Matches
[ ] Fire Steel
[ ] Snare Wire
[ ] Wire Saw
[ ] Sewing Kit
[ ] Button Compass
[ ] Safety Pins
[ ] Whistle
[ ] Candle
[ ] Compact LED lamp
[ ] Compact Knife or Razor Blade
[ ] Fishing kit
[ ] Pencil
[ ] Water Purification Tablets
[ ] Painkillers
[ ] Anti Diarrhea Tablets
[ ] Antibiotics
[ ] Condom or Alok Sak

Water
[ ] One or Two Water Bottles (Nalgene, Klean Kanteen, Camelback or SIGG)
[ ] Water Bladder for your backpack; Camelback, Nalgene or similar system.
[ ] Water Purification Tablets
[ ] Water Purification Filter

Food
[ ] Freeze Dried Rations or Meals Ready to Eat (MRE:s). Minimum 6 meals for 72 hours
[ ] Powerbars, Flapjack, Beef jerky, Trail mix or other snacks
[ ] Tea, Coffee, Sugar and Powdered milk
[ ] Salt and Pepper

[ ] Stove: Multi Fuel Stove, Kelly Kettle, Trangia, Ebsit, Optimus Crux Lite or Jetboil
[ ] Fuel for your Stove
[ ] Cooking Vessels
[ ] Spork (Or Knife, Fork and Spoon)
[ ] Cup and Plate
[ ] Steel Wool, Mop and Washing Up Liquid (I recommend Fairy)
[ ] P-38 Can Opener

[ ] Map
[ ] Waterproof container for map
[ ] Compass
[ ] Cash or Gold/Silver
[ ] Passport and Immunization Record Card
[ ] Notebook and Pen
[ ] Kwikpoint

Hygiene
[ ] Roll of Toilet Paper (in waterproof bag)
[ ] Soap
[ ] Toothbrush, Toothpaste and Dental Floss
[ ] Razor
[ ] Hand Disinfection
[ ] Insect Repellant
[ ] Sun Block or Skin Care Lotion

[ ] 550 Paracord
[ ] First Aid Kit
[ ] Blister Kit
[ ] Sunglasses

 

[Westfalia]

Latest Article: Gathering Information During Crisis and Survival Situation: HumInt and interviews

 

[HansC]

I commend you for the hard work, thoroughness, and sense of civic duty that it took to produce this. It is well thought out, and has obviously been put together with a great deal of care. I see a big cultural difference, as you are primarily concerned with surviving the environment in an emergency, while Americans worry about surviving each other in any given crisis. The knowledge you've compiled and presented is valuable. Understand that a great many people benefit from your efforts. I find it humbling that you're providing so much material free of charge. Thank you.

 

[Decker]

I commend you for the hard work, thoroughness, and sense of civic duty that it took to produce this. It is well thought out, and has obviously been put together with a great deal of care. I see a big cultural difference, as you are primarily concerned with surviving the environment in an emergency, while Americans worry about surviving each other in any given crisis. The knowledge you've compiled and presented is valuable. Understand that a great many people benefit from your efforts. I find it humbling that you're providing so much material free of charge. Thank you.

Well said! And, I agree.

 

[Westfalia]

HansC and Decker: Thank You!

Sibi Totique: Bug Out Bag built on Ultra Light Weight Equipment

In some previous articles I have discussed some possible ways to approach the subject of Bug Out Bags from a light weight perspective. In this article I will focus on Ultra Light Weight Equipment and what type of gear you can go for if you want to build an Ultra Light Weight pack for outdoor activities or as a BOB. The Ultra Light Weight Hiking movement has become very popular and new equipment becomes available all the time. In this article I will give some examples of equipment that is available.

All Bug Out Bags must be adapted to the person that uses the setup, the local climate, seasonal variations and terrain. One Size Do Not fit All and this article is only intended to provide the reader with some inspirations for their own setups. For some of the considerations that should be included see the article Building the right Bug Out Bag for You.

Suggestion for an Ultra Light Bug Out Bag
Weight: 4,08kg without water, 7,16kg including water (15,7 pounds including 3 liter of Water)

Backpack 0,891kg
[ ] Terra Nova Voyager 55 Liter 891g

Shelter and Clothing 1,255kg
[ ] Terra Nova Ultra 1 Tarp 2,5m x 1,5m 70g
[ ] 20m (5 x 4m) meters of Dynemma cord 30g
[ ] Montane Light-Speed H20 Jacket 155g
[ ] Montane Atomic Pants 200g
[ ] Western Mountaineering Ultra Light (180cm length) 450g
[ ] Thermarest NeoAir XLite 350g

Survival Knife 0,107kg
[ ] Mora Companion Fixed Blade Knife 107g

Fire 0,021kg
[ ] FireSteel Pup 7g
[ ] BIC Lighter 14 g

Light 0.082kg
[ ] Petzl Tikka Plus 2 Headlamp (Including 3 AA Batteries) 81g

Pocket Survival Kit 0,1kg
[ ] Zip Lock Bag
[ ] Fishing line, hooks and sinks
[ ] Snare Wire
[ ] Safety Pins
[ ] Sewing Kit
[ ] Wire Saw
[ ] Anti Diarrheal Tablets
[ ] Water Purification Tablets
[ ] Pen
[ ] Vargo Titanium Whistle 7g
[ ] Fällkniven U-4 Folding Knife 22g

Water 3,080kg
[ ] 2 1,5 liter Soda Bottles (2 x 40g + 1500g+1500g) 3080g

Food and Cooking 1,215kg
[ ] Jetboil SOL Gas Stove 300g
[ ] Jetboil Pot Support and Stabilizer 57g
[ ] 100g Gas Bottle 198g
[ ] 6 Freeze Dried Meals from DryTech 660g

First Aid and Hygiene 0,25kg
[ ] Life Systems Light + Dry Micro 114g
[ ] Compact bottle of Soap
[ ] Tooth Brush, Dental Floss and Tooth Paste
[ ] Half a roll of Toilet Paper in a Waterproof Bag 100g

Navigation 0.123kg
[ ] Topographical Map 100g
[ ] Compass: Silva Ranger SL 23g

Other 0,036kg
[ ] Rite In The Rain 3x5 Notebook 36g

Comments
In this Ultra Light Weight setup there is still clothing and shelter to help shield you from the elements in the form of a Ultra Light Rain clothing, a Sleeping Bag, Sleeping Matress and a Tarp. The Tarp is extremely light with a weight of only 70 grams and made from the same material as the ultra light tents from Terra Nova; it is however very expensive. A light weight tarp in the same size from a hard ware store has a weight of around 200g-240g and price of only a few dollars. In this setup instead of paracord a cord made of Dyneema was included; this cord is lighter than paracord and a strength than can hold around 300kg.

If you are looking for a light weight tent I would recommend looking at the Hillberg Akto, Helsport and Terra Nova Laser. The Ultra Light model from Hennessey Hammock can be another alternative worth checking out.

The Survival Knife in this setup; The Mora Companion is a light weight alternative that does not have a full tang; but I would argue that this knife is one of the absolutely best knives that can be found for this price; cheap, very sharp and sturdy enough for most tasks in the outdoors. The knife can also be found in a number of colors; from forest green to safety orange. If you want a Mora Knife with a sturdier blade you can check out the Mora Bushcraft Triflex.

Two tools are included to start a fire; a compact Fire Steel for FireSteel.com and a simple lighter from BIC giving you two reliable options to get a fire going. If you want to have more options you can include some tinder like cotton balls soaked with Vaseline and some matches in water proof bag.

The Tikka 2 Headlamp from Petzl is a headlamp with one red and one white LED; the red LED can be useful in situations when you don’t want to attract attention or preserve your night vision. A headlamp many advantages over a flashlight since they allow you to perform repairs, first aid, raise tents and other work during the night and low light conditions and still use both of your hands. If you want a compact Flashlight instead the Fenix LD-12 or 4Sevens Quark Tactical QTA provides a high amount light in a compact and light format.

Normally Pocket Survival Kits comes in a relatively heavy metal or plastic container; in order to save some weight you can simply pack a small kit by yourself in a waterproof zip lock bag like an AlokSak.

Water is one of the most critical aspects of survival in any climate and the access to water in combination with the climate must be a central aspect of your planning and setup. Water is very heavy so if the access to water is good you can get along with carrying just a little water; but if not you must adjust accordingly. For water normal Soda Bottles that can you clean carefully provides one of the lightest alternatives you can find even if they are not as sturdy as a bottle from Nalgene or Klean Kanteen. If the water in your area is relatively clean in your area you can get along with just brining Water Purification Tablets, but if the quality of the water requires more treatment a compact filter or a water bottle that has a filter included can be worth considering.

For cooking a light weight Gas Stove provides a method of cooking that is fast, effective and light weight. The JetBoil SOL is a suitable system for one person that includes the burner and a pot. All small gas stoves really benefits from having a stabilizer that is attached to bottom of the stove; this makes the stove more reliable and reduce the risk that you accidently tip the stove over and spill boiling water over yourself or lose a meal. A 100g container of gas provides enough heat to boil around 10-12 liters of water. Freeze dried food is an excellent source of food in combination with a gas stove if there is access to water in your area since its light weight and has a long shelf life. There are many different companies that make freeze dried food; find the company that you personally like the best. The rations from the Norwegian Company Drytech are used by military units in Scandinavia; they are vacuumed pack to reduce weight, increase shelf life and reduce the amount of space they take up in your kit.

The First Aid Kit is quite basic and minimalistic; just intended to deal with minor cuts and problems like blisters. For hygiene a tooth brush and some tooth paste is included; in order to save a few grams you can cut the handle of the tooth brush making it a little shorter. For hygiene a little soap can help you stay clean and avoid infections. Normal soap in the size you can find from hotels provides a light weight alternative.

The Backpack in this setup is relatively big for a light weight pack making it possible to add a little extra equipment like a few pieces of clothing, documents like and ID-Card, Immunization Card, Passport, navigation tools like a GPS, Snacks and Tea Bags etc. The lightweight packs from Osprey, the Jam 50 from GoLite and the Mariposa 2012 can be alternative to the suggested pack.

Conclusion
This setup is centered on different types of Ultra Light Equipment but still provides a comprehensive setup with a weight of around 7 kilograms including 3 liters of Water. Some personal equipment and clothing would most likely have to be included as well but the weight of the pack is still low. A Bug Out Bag does not have to consist of only Ultra Light Weight equipment as in this setup; but by incorporating some Ultra Light Items you can reduce the weight of regular setup or a regular hiking pack.

Since Ultra Light Weight Equipment does not provide the same amount of insulation and protection from the elements as thicker fabrics the clothing you carry is extra important in order to avoid hypothermia. In cold weather settings this approach is not as effective since it leaves you vulnerable to the elements; an Ultra Light Approach can however be a successful concept during the summers even in Northern Regions. The critical aspect is that you know the limitations of the gear and adapt accordingly; experience, knowledge and skills becomes extra important and you must handle the gear with more care.

Pro
• A lighter pack makes it easier to move around; especially if you are suffering from problems with your back or knees.
• You can generally move faster and longer distances with a lighter bag; something that can be crucial during an evacuation if you have to move by foot.
• Carrying as light bag helps to conserve energy and allows you to stay more alert and can thereby help avoiding dangers and injuries during travel.

Con
• Ultra Light Equipment has thinner fabrics and is less sturdy than regular equipment making them more likely to break and be affected by wear.
• High Quality Ultra Light Equipment tend to be very expensive making it a big investment; especially if you don’t intend on using the equipment for your regular outdoor activities
• Ultra light sleeping bags and sleeping mattresses tend to be less comfortable and not provide the same amount of insulation and comfort as thicker and sturdier models. Knowing your equipment, your own terrain and climate is extra important for this type of equipment; you must know how to utilize it and what limitations your gear has. In general I would not recommend the ultra light approach for settings with very cold or extreme weather.

 

[Westfalia]

Sibi Totique: The Collapse as a Process

Within the Survivalist and Prepper community the concept SHTF is often used in order to describe an event that will require the tools often discussed as tactics to handle a massive breakdown of the modern institutions, infrastructure, law and order. WROL or Without the Rule of Law has also started to be used in order to describe such an event.

The main problem as I see it is that this type of thinking focuses on a single event that will suddenly change everything about modern life. History shows us that many previous civilizations have collapsed; the Romans, Mayans and the people of the Easter Islands are just some examples. Modern examples are also available like the collapse of the Soviet Union, the collapse of former Yugoslavia, the Genocide in Rwanda and a number of civil wars and more or less collapsed states like Afghanistan, Iraq, Congo and Somalia. The difficulty of reversing this process has been demonstrated in several conflicts where comprehensive peace building and state building processes have place. So we know that countries, systems and civilizations can and have failed over the course of history. Sometimes a collapse can have absolutely devastating results, but in some cases it can also be relatively peaceful as in the case of the Soviet Union.

What if a Collapse is not an event but a Process?
Within the Survivalist and Prepper movement different types of tactics and solutions has been developed in order to be able to cope with a sudden collapse of modern society;
• The ability to escape an area buy having kit such as Bug Out Bags, Vehicles and Plans for Escape to safer areas or alternative locations where supplies are being stored.
• Collecting and storing equipment, supplies, water and other essentials in the home so that one can “Bug In” without having to rely on others.

This type of tactics can be effective for disasters with a fast onset like a hurricane, a nuclear plant meltdown and large scale accidents, but this does not mean that this type tactics is well suited all situations. As the Economic Crisis within the European Union progresses many choose to leave their homes and even their home countries in order to find jobs and livelihoods. For this type of situation a fully equipped Bug Out Bag is not as an effective tool as an education, skills and knowledge that makes it possible to find a job elsewhere.

As the situation progresses it becomes clear that the standard of living that many have experienced may become a thing of the past. Things that might be expected are
• Higher unemployment and a tougher job market
• Lower wages
• Higher taxes
• Higher prices on food, water, energy and fuel
• Social services like schools, healthcare, law enforcement, military and other functions of states may decrease in size and function.
• Pensions being lost or lowered and the age for retirement being raised.

These threats present a number of challenges to individuals and families; especially those how already have low marginal in their economic situation. There are no easy solutions for these types of problems but there are of course thing that can be done by individuals and families. It’s also important to say that all regions in the world may not develop the same; some regions may continue to experience economical growth while other regions may go the other way.

Some suggested steps for increasing your resilience
• Try to reduce your level of debt and pay of any loans you might have, in a situation when the economy no longer grows it can become very hard to pay interest on loans while your salary remains the same or event get lowered.
• Try to make some savings and put some money away every month; investing money in gold, silver, land and other type of values can also be a way to improve your situation.
• Learn how to make do with less and save where you can.
• Work together with your community; it is likely that many services may no longer be available in the same way as they have before. Non Governmental Organizations already provides services for Search and Rescue, Education and Social Services and other fields around the world.
• When buying gear try to investment in quality gear that will stand the test of time. Also try to repair and learn to repair gear instead of throwing things away and buying something new as soon as it breaks.
• Find local opportunities and local options to ensure your basic needs.

Conclusion
First of all; I do don’t want to pretend that I know what tomorrow will bring. There are however a number of challenges that is not being recognized either as parts or as a whole by the political and economical community. Viewing a potential collapse as a process and not as an event presents a number of problems to actually preparing for such an event. One thing that is clear however is that as things change what we regard as normal will change over time, lower wages, higher gas prices, lowered pensions and other problems will no longer be viewed as imminent disaster, but as everyday life.

The political system in the United States and within the European Union is focused on the notion of growth. This makes it very hard to recognize that there might be limitations like
• Fossil fuels that provide over 80% of all energy used today are not an unlimited recourse and that we might reach a Peak in the world production.
• That land is not an unlimited recourse
• Other renewable and non renewable resource like topsoil, phosphor, fresh water and forests does not exist in an unlimited quantity.
• That the increase of the world population might create challenges and problems

Adapting to such a situation is not easy and solutions that work in some settings for some people may not work in other settings. Solutions must be based on the local climate, terrain, population and opportunities that exist. Some change may come from the top of the political and economical system but it’s likely that challenges presented will be ignored and that adapting to the changing situation will have to be done by people themselves; you have to take responsibility for your own situation.

 

[Hook686]

The flaw is simply that it is far easier and simpler to accumulate 'Things', than to acquire the skills, physical condition, or knowledge to effectively utilize those 'Things', or laying out a plan to utilize those things for specific purposes. How many folks take the time, or make the effort to become a 'Professional' after high school, or even college ? We as a species cannot get along when things are relatively good, why expect cooperation, help and support when the SHTF ? It will never happen, as man in nature is in a state of war ... Plato. I must admit I did enjoy hearing Rush Limbaugh whine.