Russia attacks Ukraine! WW3 imminent?

[CountryGent]

From Business Insider: An infamous Stalin-era military unit called SMERSH is being re-created by Putin as he steps up his search for spies: UK intel. Well, we know who to call:

 

[The Heretic]

Bundeswehr regularly spots drones over its military training grounds, suspects Russia — Bild

Suspicious unidentified drones have been regularly spotted over German military training grounds for more than a year, particularly where Ukrainian soldiers are being trained, German newspaper Bild reported on Jan. 7.

news.yahoo.com

 

[The Heretic]

The West could soon hand Putin the keys to Europe

There’s a palpable difference along the Ukrainian front this January, compared with this time last year. Then, the mood and optimism was buoyant, with western aid pouring in to Kyiv after successful offensives. The West presented a unified front, determined to ensure Putin’s barbarous war on...

news.yahoo.com

 

[The Heretic]

Ukraine-Russia war: Ukraine inflicting 'heavy losses' on Russians attacking Dnipro bridgehead

Ukraine is inflicting “significant losses” on Russian forces attacking its bridgehead over the Dnipro river.

news.yahoo.com

 

[The Heretic]

UK Intelligence reveals reasons why Russian forces bomb their own cities

UK Defence Intelligence has analysed cases where the Russian forces accidentally dropped ammunition on Russian and occupied cities and revealed the reasons behind it. Source: UK Defence Intelligence review dated 10 January on Twitter, as reported by European Pravda Quote: "Russia's continued...

news.yahoo.com

 

[The Heretic]

Russia’s winter offensive in Ukraine has failed — report

Russian forces have been engaged in large-scale offensives in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts for the past three months without making significant gains, German newspaper Bild reported on Jan. 9.

news.yahoo.com

 

[CountryGent]

The Cold War channel's take on the possibility of nuclear attack.

 

[The Heretic]

War With Russia Teaches Ukraine To Value Private Guns

Survey finds growing acceptance of civilian firearms among the country’s population.

news.yahoo.com

 

[The Heretic]

Russian military ships anywhere in the world are legitimate targets says Ukrainian Naval Commander

Any Russian naval vessel is fair game, no matter where it is, said Ukrainian Naval Commander, Oleksiy Neizhpapa, in an interview with NV’s sister publication Ukrainska Pravda on Jan. 11.

news.yahoo.com

 

[The Heretic]

Estonia considers mining border with Russia

Estonia is contemplating planting landmines along its border with Russia, including both anti-personnel and anti-tank mines, deputy chair of Estonian parliamentary Defense Committee, Leo Kunnas, said on Jan. 12, as reported by public broadcaster ERR.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Croat]

Long read here so don't bother starting if reading not your thing...

Predicting the future is an iffy business. My crystal ball is just as good as yours, which is to say all crystal balls are full of crap because nobody has a corner on the future. Yet so much of our lives are built around the future. We go to school based on future expectations, we insure the future, doctors prognose our future, we maintain a bank balance in anticipation of future needs, we invest billions in our military to protect the future, the stock market gambles on the future, etc. Yet despite it all, none of us can really know the future. All we can do is best-guess it. Nonetheless, I'm going to go out on a limb here and make some predictions about how the Ukraine-Russia war will end, starting with a nod to history.

In November 1939 the Soviet Union invaded little Finland in what has since become known as the Winter War. Finland mounted a surprisingly effectively resistance to the Russian invasion, so much so that the Russians sent out peace feelers just two months later. Finland "won" that war by successfully maintaining its independence, but in reality lost the Winter War by having to cede 9% of its land to Russia as part of the final peace treaty in March 1940.

The past will repeat itself because there are parallels between the Winter War of 1939-40 and the Ukraine-Russia War of 2021-24*. Not perfect parallels, of course, especially since environmental conditions were so much more dominant during the 20th century conflict compared to the 21st century conflict. Yet there certainly are parallels regarding how effectively the David in each war resisted Goliath's attack. And like the Winter War, my prediction is that the current war will only achieve peace when Ukraine agrees to cede its land to Russia.

The current war has not wholly stalemated -- yet -- but the lines have become increasingly static as each side struggles to gain ground against the other. Both sides have proven to be much better at defense than offense and 2024 will see the lines becoming ever more calcified. The Ukrainian land occupied by Russia today will be more or less equivalent to what Ukraine will be required to cede in order to gain peace. Like an annoying yipping dog the UN will try to bark its way into the peace negotiations, probably insisting on a vote of self-determination for places like Bakhmut and Kherson, but make no mistake: the great majority of land occupied by Russia today, including Crimea, is never going back to Ukraine.

Ukraine, of course, will not cede its land willingly. However, if Donald Trump gets elected in November then the writing is on the wall. Trump simply will not pour billions of US taxpayer dollars into the Ukrainian military like Biden has. Trump will, however, help Putin see the light that he needs to accept his limited gains, quit draining his treasury and resources, and come back into the global economic fold. Debilitating attacks against Russia's air force by Ukrainian F-16s (due mid-year) will help in that persuasion. Part of the deal may be establishment of Ukraine as both an EU and NATO member state; a logical penalty suffered by Russia for invading. Meanwhile, Trump wins big by stemming the flow of American tax dollars to Europe and reopening cheap Russian oil imports to the US while dramatically reducing gas prices here.

Ukraine won't want to play that game, not at all, but their choices are limited. If Ukraine refuses to play ball with Trump then their demise will come soon enough. Even without stalwart support from the West, Ukraine has enough inventory to engage a defensive strategy that will force a multi-year protracted Russian campaign. But chances are they will eventually fold, or at best achieve a Korean-type stalemate whereby Russia absorbs all the currently occupied territory anyway. Ukraine has to face the reality that human heroism can only get you so far in the face of 21st century weaponry.

Again, the future is unknown. Your guess about how it will all go down is just as good as mine. But it appears the end is nigh for this war. Peace, or at least protracted stalemate, should come in 2025.

*Arguably, the Ukraine-Russia War's beginning was 2014 when Russia invaded and occupied Ukrainian Crimea, but that's another story.

 

[Certaindeaf]

Lol, central heating can't be fixed for months for millions in russia..

View: https://youtu.be/AdHL0hZjfA8?feature=shared

 

[wired]

Long read here so don't bother starting if reading not your thing...

Predicting the future is an iffy business. My crystal ball is just as good as yours, which is to say all crystal balls are full of crap because nobody has a corner on the future. Yet so much of our lives are built around the future. We go to school based on future expectations, we insure the future, doctors prognose our future, we maintain a bank balance in anticipation of future needs, we invest billions in our military to protect the future, the stock market gambles on the future, etc. Yet despite it all, none of us can really know the future. All we can do is best-guess it. Nonetheless, I'm going to go out on a limb here and make some predictions about how the Ukraine-Russia war will end, starting with a nod to history.

In November 1939 the Soviet Union invaded little Finland in what has since become known as the Winter War. Finland mounted a surprisingly effectively resistance to the Russian invasion, so much so that the Russians sent out peace feelers just two months later. Finland "won" that war by successfully maintaining its independence, but in reality lost the Winter War by having to cede 9% of its land to Russia as part of the final peace treaty in March 1940.

The past will repeat itself because there are parallels between the Winter War of 1939-40 and the Ukraine-Russia War of 2021-24*. Not perfect parallels, of course, especially since environmental conditions were so much more dominant during the 20th century conflict compared to the 21st century conflict. Yet there certainly are parallels regarding how effectively the David in each war resisted Goliath's attack. And like the Winter War, my prediction is that the current war will only achieve peace when Ukraine agrees to cede its land to Russia.

The current war has not wholly stalemated -- yet -- but the lines have become increasingly static as each side struggles to gain ground against the other. Both sides have proven to be much better at defense than offense and 2024 will see the lines becoming ever more calcified. The Ukrainian land occupied by Russia today will be more or less equivalent to what Ukraine will be required to cede in order to gain peace. Like an annoying yipping dog the UN will try to bark its way into the peace negotiations, probably insisting on a vote of self-determination for places like Bakhmut and Kherson, but make no mistake: the great majority of land occupied by Russia today, including Crimea, is never going back to Ukraine.

Ukraine, of course, will not cede its land willingly. However, if Donald Trump gets elected in November then the writing is on the wall. Trump simply will not pour billions of US taxpayer dollars into the Ukrainian military like Biden has. Trump will, however, help Putin see the light that he needs to accept his limited gains, quit draining his treasury and resources, and come back into the global economic fold. Debilitating attacks against Russia's air force by Ukrainian F-16s (due mid-year) will help in that persuasion. Part of the deal may be establishment of Ukraine as both an EU and NATO member state; a logical penalty suffered by Russia for invading. Meanwhile, Trump wins big by stemming the flow of American tax dollars to Europe and reopening cheap Russian oil imports to the US while dramatically reducing gas prices here.

Ukraine won't want to play that game, not at all, but their choices are limited. If Ukraine refuses to play ball with Trump then their demise will come soon enough. Even without stalwart support from the West, Ukraine has enough inventory to engage a defensive strategy that will force a multi-year protracted Russian campaign. But chances are they will eventually fold, or at best achieve a Korean-type stalemate whereby Russia absorbs all the currently occupied territory anyway. Ukraine has to face the reality that human heroism can only get you so far in the face of 21st century weaponry.

Again, the future is unknown. Your guess about how it will all go down is just as good as mine. But it appears the end is nigh for this war. Peace, or at least protracted stalemate, should come in 2025.

*Arguably, the Ukraine-Russia War's beginning was 2014 when Russia invaded and occupied Ukrainian Crimea, but that's another story.

Those are some pretty far fetched assumptions. So you really think the Russians are going to roll over and accept a NATO presence in Ukraine? Besides the whole assumption that Trump is going to get elected again being total nonsense. The Republican base is dooming the country to four more years of Biden. Russia and Ukraine are at a stalemate now . Russia really has nothing to gain by abandoning their war effort at this point. Theyre just waiting out the patience of the western governments to pour money and resources into Ukraine. The Israel war has largely squashed a lot of the impetus to resupply Ukraine and in a straight up war of attrition the Russians just have to hold onto territory. I really think the most realistic outcome is going to be a treaty finalized in the next few years where Russian gets Crimea and probably a few of the Eastern provinces, dropping of sanctions in exchange for dropping their war effort with NATO permanently off the table for Ukraine. The Russians will NEVER allow Ukraine NATO membership.

FWIW Russian oil is already traded on the market. China and India buy all the Russians can sell them . Oil is a fungible commodity. The Chinese buy Russsian oil instead of Arab or Venezuelan oil. 6 of one half dozen of an other and since the price of Russian oil is discounted it keeps the price of OPEC oil down. Release export controls across the board and the benchmark price will go up not down.

 

[The Heretic]

TBD

 

[Certaindeaf]

Ukrainian Sources: We Just Shot Down Two Of Russia’s Best Command Planes

RBC Radio posted what it claimed was an audio recording of an Il-22 crew radioing to controllers in Anapa. “Urgently requesting ambulance and fire crew,” the crew said.

www.forbes.com

 

[Cavedweller]

"It's been almost two years, and the same people are in the trenches," 29-year-old Alina, who declined to tell her last name, fearing backlash for her soldier husband, told the Kyiv Independent. "Many of them are already dead."

‘It’s their turn now:’ Ukrainians call on government to demobilize exhausted soldiers fighting for nearly two years

Over a hundred women braved a snowstorm in early December to gather in central Kyiv’s Independence Square and call on the government to demobilize their relatives who have been on the front lines since the first days of the invasion. Draped in Ukrainian flags, women chanted, “It’s their turn...

news.yahoo.com

 

[Certaindeaf]

Skip to 10:50 to see map of all currently affected facilities..

View: https://youtu.be/b4dduEpy4SM?feature=shared

 

[albin25]

I've been watching the "news" for the past week, apparently the Ukraine/Russia war is over….
….. oh, and, it's cold and snowing in Winter for what (according to the "news"), seems to be the first time ever.

 

[Certaindeaf]

I've been watching the "news" for the past week, apparently the Ukraine/Russia war is over….
….. oh, and, it's cold and snowing in Winter for what seems to be the first time ever.

Just think, in a couple years you'll learn how to pick your nose.
You're a big boy now!

 

[Ura-Ki]

Just think, in a couple years you'll learn how to pick your nose.
You're a big boy now!

But,............The real question is; What happens to the Boogy, does he gives it the flick, or does he eats it?