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Discussion in 'Legal & Political Archive' started by Gator Monroe, May 17, 2011.
Is Medium Range Dallas Baltimore DC or Miami Atlanta Charelston ?
Assuming the maximum range of most MRBM's is 3500 km, (otherwise it's an ICBM), it threatens most of the south and east coast. Texas is out of range, but LA, MS, GA, FL, AL, SC, NC, and VA are all within range. Chances are, if venezuela was to get these weapons, they would probably be buying the Shahab-3 an iranian made MRBM with a nominal range of 2100km. Which cuts out all of the continental US (Out of range) but does potentially threaten Puerto Rico, as well as the US military base at Guantanimo Bay Cuba.
Realistically, VE is not an international military threat, and I think Hugo Chavez realises this. The true implication of VE getting IRBMs is the potential threat to Columbia, a US ally, and at this point one of the very few Liberal republics in south america (I use Liberal in the philosophical, rather than american political context).
Whether chavez wants to admit it or not, the US could squash him like a bug, and would with the provocation of firing missles at us.
Medium-range ballistic missile
More like Mexico city......Los Angles at best
Moderate reach or not, it is a step towards ICBM capability.
I wonder if it is wise to allow them to have this capability. Remember, the Iranians either have or are close to developing a nuke.
Now consider down the road a bit and Venezuela has ICBM nuclear capability?
Plausibile but unlikley. Our government will not allow such a percieved threat in the western hemisphere. A ballistic program takes at least one to two years to build from an exsisting system. Aomething like that will not go un noticed espcially in our part of the world. Chavez is nt a dicreet subtle man so he will thumb his nose at us and play mini god. A mysterious fire will break out and the entire system will be scrapped (thanks to some of our friends in the CIA).
That's just how I see it going down.
It is important to remember that VE does not get it's money from the intelligence or industriousness of it's people, instead it derives nearly all of it's wealth from exploitation of minerals, while the bulk of the population remains dirt poor and functionally illiterate. This is not a nation that is capable of creating IRBMs, ICBMs, or any other significant technology on it's own. However, the regime always has the option of putting some of that oil money into buying the technology (usually the items themselves) from someone willing to sell them.
One thing the soviets realized during the cold war, is it's great to have an army of peasants, but as soon as you throw complex weapons system into the mix, you better have a cadre of scientists who are capable of creating and managing those weapons. It is remotely possible Chavez could be in pursuing a bomb program, and if he sets the bar low enough, it's likely he will be successful, after all, south africa was, as well as north korea. While the bar is high for joining the nuclear club, staying there has a much higher bar, one that South Africa realized it wasn't prepared to live up to, and north korea rattles it's sabres every time they need some more grass clippings to feed the population.
Nuclear weapons have about an 18 month shelf life, after that, they need to be disassembled, the electronics need to be tested, certain assemblies need to be replaced and then they can be put back into service. If the weapon sits much beyond that threshold, components in the bomb will degrade to the point where the bomb will not detonate properly, resulting in a sub-optimal yield, if that.
The reality of nuclear weapons put on the end of missles is much more complex than just having a big rocket and having a big bomb. The Russians had this issue throughout the cold war. While American Rockets never had the lifting capacity of their russian counterparts, American advancement in computers and the ability to miniaturize our nuclear weapons made all the difference. We could make smaller bombs, put more of them on one of our underpowered rockets, and blast them off the face of the planet, a feat they were not prepared to face.
The reality of all this talk, the US is a global hyperpower, we had better start acting like it.
Well said AMP
Dirt poor and functionally illiterate? Hardly. In fact, Venezuelan literacy rate is above 95%, among the highest in the region. Education in Venezuela - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia And its GDP per capita is higher than that of Argentina, Brazil, India, Jamaica, or Russia. World Bank, World Development Indicators - Google public data ; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
BTW, the US is not the most literate or wealthy country in the world; It's either barely in or barely out of the top 10 in terms of GDP per capita, depending on who's counting and how. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita. Try that chant at a sporting event: "We're number 11! We're number 11!"
So..... Where do you people come up with this stuff? Or have we just given up on facts and now depend on Fox News and right wing blogs for "information"? Come on people, this stuff isn't hard to look up before you spew nonsense.
And where do you come up with these facts that anything discussed in this thread came from Fox News or Right wing blogs, Mr Kettle? :bluelaugh:
Oh and let me just add that you are wrong about the Venezuelan literacy rate. They are in fact poorly educated and the poor receive about 4.68 years or education, If you consider a 5th grade education success you only see what you want to see. LOL, LOL.
Now lets discuss GDP, hmmm seems to be going down doesn't it.
$12,600 (2010 est.)
$13,200 (2009 est.)
$13,900 (2008 est.)
So basically on average all the money divided by all the citizens gives every last Venezuelan the purchasing power of the average USA welfare recipient.
But wait there's more...
GDP is very misleading since as with any country the wealthiest 1 % get the lions share of the money so your average Venezuelan is in fact "Dirt Poor".
Two swings two misses CEF..... Where do you get your information? Might I suggest a switch to Fox News? LOL, LOL, LOL...
So in short 40% of Venezuelans have a 5th grade education and live on 5 to 15% of the average GDP ($650 to $1950 per year).
Yeah Socialism! Viva La Chavez!, Viva La Revolucion!
well, I remember (sort of, I was in grade school at the time) when Cuba tried to get missiles from the USSR. At that time, we had an anti-Communist Navy vet in the Oval Office who stood up to the Soviet.
I don't know if our current administration would stand up to the Iranians or apologize to them...but I would hope that he would follow the example of history and blockade VE if they started to ship them...
I seriously doubt that will happen regardless of who is president. Our government has never allowed ballistic weapons other than our own in the America's. We can't prevent what happens in international waters but I'm willing to bet that if things start looking hairy down there we will be dropping the hammer on Chavez and who ever's with him. We have stepped in before when things got out of hand in SA. Remember the Sandinista's? Chavez knows better than to get stupid like that. Its all just Saber rattling!
I hope so, but I don't have as much faith in Chavez as you do, I guess.