MASSIVE Stock Collapse Friday/Monday. You Have Been Warned

[The Heretic]

 

[Oregonhunter5]

Nope

 

[etrain16]

Just checking in today - we're a little over an hour away from the closing bell for Friday, 2/9/18, still no massive collapse. That said, the prediction was for today OR Monday. So I guess we'll know by Monday afternoon if this was all blowing smoke or not.

Personally, I don't see a 'massive collapse' coming, but then I don't have that inside information some others seem to be blessed with.

I do, however, know what to do with folks that make catastrophic predictions that don't come to pass....

It does have me wondering what the post by the OP will be if the big collapse doesn't happen. I'm guessing, just guessing, the prediction will be moved off to a later date. I could be wrong though.

 

[MasterChief]

 

[uberguy]

Friday, just about 3pm EST, market's up a fraction DOW, NASDAQ, S&P -
Must be Monday then, or Tue, or Thur or whenever ...
On the other hand, fundamentals are all strong; the 'jitters' are supposed to be re the economy doing too well and over heating, resulting in future inflation.
Like Grandma Rosanna Danna Danna said, if it's not one thing, it's another

 

[The Heretic]

Friday, just about 3pm EST, market's up a fraction DOW, NASDAQ, S&P -
Must be Monday then, or Tue, or Thur or whenever ...
On the other hand, fundamentals are all strong; the 'jitters' are supposed to be re the economy doing too well and over heating, resulting in future inflation.
Like Grandma Rosanna Danna Danna said, if it's not one thing, it's another

Yup. The economy is not the market and the market is not the economy.

Some people who were playing risky games in the market maybe got hurt, others maybe made a killing, but we've seen this before several times in the past decade (and before) and this is not a crash, it is a 'correction' with a return of normal volatility. The constant steep rise without volatility worried me more - kind of like a temp gauge on an overheating engine.

My retirement funds went down about 4-5%, but they are now back to where they were in November/December and I am still in the black. I jumped in by transferring some money from bonds to stocks, as I wanted to take advantage of the lower prices. I actually hopes that the market flattens out for a while so my paycheck contributions result in more shares of stock before it starts heating up again.

 

[v0lcom13sn0w]

run to the hills. run for your lives!

 

[RicInOR]

12:30 PST Friday

 

[Boboclown]

Friday, just about 3pm EST, market's up a fraction DOW, NASDAQ, S&P -
Must be Monday then, or Tue, or Thur or whenever ...
On the other hand, fundamentals are all strong; the 'jitters' are supposed to be re the economy doing too well and over heating, resulting in future inflation.
Like Grandma Rosanna Danna Danna said, if it's not one thing, it's another

Fake news. Rosie O'Donnell thought the market was a giant cake and ate it.

 

[uberguy]

Me, I'm recently retired and mostly in bonds anyway - clearly missed out on many of the big gains, but not too worried about losses either, the way it's supposed to be at this stage.
Besides - the market's been up 8,000 points since Nov 2016; we've had a 10% correction, overdue. Don't see why a big crash would happen over concerns about inflation or it's associated interest rate increases. Certainly can see the market slowing down, whether that happens or not, time will tell.
50% of the market is now programmed auto-trading and there's not much individual 'people' can do about that.

Well, market's close for the weekend, up on all (US) exchanges, DOW +106
End of the world on Monday it is then.

 

[CoastRange57]

The constant steep rise without volatility worried me more - kind of like a temp gauge on an overheating engine.

Agree. It had to settle down a bit, nothing stays that hot with out a pull back.

I jumped in by transferring some money from bonds to stocks, as I wanted to take advantage of the lower prices.

I did the same thing. A minor allocation shift moved about 10% to stocks. I will adjust it back later on, will have to watch it to see when that is right.

 

[CoastRange57]

• Dow 30
  24,190.90
  +330.44(+1.38%)

So much for off the rail market drop. I made back about half of yesterdays losses. Nothing to see here.

 

[MasterChief]

 

[The Heretic]

Agree. It had to settle down a bit, nothing stays that hot with out a pull back.



I did the same thing. A minor allocation shift moved about 10% to stocks. I will adjust it back later on, will have to watch it to see when that is right.

I did that with my 401K but I will leave it mostly equity based funds now. My standard IRA is larger than my 401K and is about 60 to 80% bonds so I still am quite weighted overall towards bonds. But as I recently (last year) moved my 401K to mostly stock and then this week almost solely stock, plus any new contributions to my Roth IRA go into 80% stock, I am slowly moving from 80/20 bonds/stocks to about 60/40 bonds/stocks and by the time I retire I should be 40/60 bonds/stocks or even more weighted towards stocks depending on what the market does.

I know that for most people that is moving in the wrong direction when getting close to retirement, but I am not going to be living on those funds, they are for my daughter and hopefully she won't need them for 20 years so I am moving towards growth away from being conservative as I grow more confident about my own ability to meet my goals.

Once I retire and my income goes down, I will start moving funds from the IRA/401K (the latter will probably be rolled over into an standard IRA) into the Roth IRA, paying less tax on the rollover as I do it (rolling over just enough that I stay in the lowest tax bracket after deductions/etc.), then if/when I need to pull funds from the Roth, they will be tax free, having already paid tax on the rolled over funds at a low rate. Then when RMDs come into play when I am 71 I will mostly be doing the same thing. This last year or so the 401K/IRA have earned more than the RMDs would be if I were 71 and therefore I am thinking the rollovers won't really impact the standing yearly balance in the 401k/IRA as the years pass. The Roth will grow as will the 401K/IRA and the total should be at least double what it was when I retired, leaving a nice nest egg for my daughter while allowing me enough to do what I want.

That all assumes everything is going according to plan - especially with regards to selling my current property, buying land, building a small shop with living quarters and not having a mortgage or a minimal (less than $100K - preferably less than $50K) short term (5 years or less) mortgage, then living off $25-$30K SSI which should be easily done while I am still ambulatory.

The only wildcard is how soon after I retire will I be unable to live without significant help/healthcare. My father got cancer not too long after he retired, and died when he was in his late 70s from the cancer and was suffering from Alzheimer's, slight dementia and Parkinsons. Those and stroke and heart disease run in my family - I don't know anybody that I grew up with who made it past 90, and most started to need significant care when they reached 80, sometimes sooner. That care can really eat up the funds - especially Alzheimer's/dementia.

 

[slimmer13]

I moved everything into beanie babies

 

[762mm]

Harry Dent was just on Cavuto and he is predicting that the DOW will be down to 16000 by April

 

[BillM]

I'll jump off my back deck onto the lawn for sure.

Meh. I'll use the steps.

 

[The Heretic]

Harry Dent was just on Cavuto and he is predicting that the DOW will be down to 16000 by April

In 2000 he predicted the Dow would reach 40,000.

If you just keep throwing out predictions, some of them are likely to come true. Doesn't mean that most of what is predicted will come true, just maybe some of it.

I predict there will be many wars in the middle east and Africa in the coming years.

 

[Boboclown]

I predict there will be many wars in the middle east and Africa in the coming years.

Watch all of the sudden there's peace in the Middle East and Africa.

 

[66PonyCar]

Harry Dent was just on Cavuto and he is predicting that the DOW will be down to 16000 by April

Yeah, his track record is not that good.