Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Official Thread

[Member 52301]

From a previous post that I put up and a new post now...

MT state officials: 4 COVID-19 presumptive positive patients infected outside of Montana

The four patients in Montana who tested presumptive positive for COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, appear to have contracted the virus outside of Montana, state officials said in a call with reporters on Saturday. On Friday, officials confirmed four patients had presumptive positive tests for...

nbcmontana.com

See previous post of mine if needed.

Regarding those 4 MT cases:

The patients include a man in Gallatin County in his 40s who had traveled internationally from an area with the virus, a woman in Yellowstone County in her 50s who had traveled internationally from an area with the virus, a man in Butte-Silver Bow County in his 50s who had traveled domestically from Washington state, and a man in his 50s in Broadwater County who traveled domestically from Washington state.

Two from WA state and two who traveled internationally. FOUR counties in this large state.

NEW news.

TWO new cases in MT:

Two people in Missoula Co. presumptive positive for COVID-19

Governor Steve Bullock's office has confirmed two presumptively positive cases of coronavirus, or COVID-19, in Missoula County. The patients are a female in her 30s and a male in his 50s. The tests, conducted by the DPHHS Public Health Laboratory, were confirmed Saturday evening. As is current...

nbcmontana.com

Missoula County = 5th County

Governor Steve Bullock's office has confirmed two presumptively positive cases of coronavirus, or COVID-19, in Missoula County.

The patients are a female in her 30s and a male in his 50s.

The tests, conducted by the DPHHS Public Health Laboratory, were confirmed Saturday evening. As is current standard, test results are considered presumptively positive and will be confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

MORE on the link.

TWO of these Missoula County people were at the same meeting in another part of the state.

MT Commissioner of Higher Education tests positive for COVID-19

The Montana University System confirmed Saturday evening that the Montana Commissioner of Higher Education, Clayton Christian, has presumably tested positive for COVID-19. Officials say Christian was tested in Missoula County, and suspect the exposure happened at the Board of Regents meeting in...

nbcmontana.com

MT Commissioner of Higher Education tests positive for COVID-19

Saturday, March 14th 2020

The Montana University System confirmed Saturday evening that the Montana Commissioner of Higher Education, Clayton Christian, has presumably tested positive for COVID-19.

Officials say Christian was tested in Missoula County, and suspect the exposure happened at the Board of Regents meeting in Dillon on Mar. 5th.

MORE on the link.

Dillon, MT is a small town and rural. It is in Beaverhead County. ADD a 6th county soon? TYPO!

I bet that they close some schools here too. They have already SHUT DOWN a lot of places and events.

The other older lady from LAKE COUNTY Montana is still in Maryland and that is in a former post of mine.

Five - 5 Different Counties in this large state NOT counting the LAKE COUNTY WOMAN in MD.

We have not counted Dillon, MT - BEAVERHEAD COUNTY yet but the 2 cases in MISSOULA COUNTY were there.

So all of those people who attended that meeting there and wherever else those 2 case people were previously - those contacts aka people have to be tested too.


Cate

 

[hatchj]

I wonder how the freight/trucking lines are doing for delivery to biz and to restock. Have they been impacted at all?

closest I could find online was DAT talking about rates for truckers increasing in demand. But I am curious if we are seeing slow downs in the US beyond lacking import/export from china for other goods.

Thats one of the issues l with my place of work.
Its kind ofb1 of 3 problems....
1. Lack of imported product
2. Locallyish made producers cant keep up.
3. Theres more loaded trailers than drivers, so between other businesses increasing loads, and the normal issues like trucks breaking down, we just arent getting enough freight.

 

[awshoot]

LOL: pretty good troll of Evergreen:

 

[WWShooter]

LOL: pretty good troll of Evergreen:

I clicked looking for hot coeds - sadly disappointing.

 

[Hueco]

I clicked looking for hot coeds - sadly disappointing.

The vid says Evergreen, not Arizona State.

 

[Member 52301]

I have a friend back in my former state who is a truck driver. Right now, he works for a company and he is not an owner/driver.

I will have to ask him what he is seeing on the road.

Do Walmart, Costco, Kroger and other BIG grocery stores have their own trucks and hire their own drivers?

What about the large pharmacy companies?

Just in time delivery stinks no matter what business is involved. My opinion.

Cate

 

[Howard1955]

I have a friend back in my former state who is a truck driver. Right now, he works for a company and he is not an owner/driver.

I will have to ask him what he is seeing on the road.

Do Walmart, Costco, Kroger and other BIG grocery stores have their own trucks and hire their own drivers?

What about the large pharmacy companies?

Just in time delivery stinks no matter what business is involved. My opinion.

Cate

I just sent a message to one of my cousins who is a truck driver. It'll be interesting to hear what the truckers are experiencing. I think my cousin works mostly in the South.

 

[Member 52301]

People should just use soap and warm water if they can't find those products that they THINK that they need.

(I am not talking about medical professionals who NEED special items on hand now.)

And if they can't wash their hands easily - wear regular gloves until they can get to a sink to clean up.

You don't need special gloves when you are shopping or getting gas - just use gloves. WASH those gloves or keep your garden or leather gloves set aside for shopping.

Soap and water cleans better than the so called hand sanitizers most of the time too.

WE do not use hand sanitizers here at home. WE do NOT buy them either. When we travel and when we camped... I made up plastic bags with soap, had extra water on hand, had some medical supplies on hand including rubbing alcohol, etc.

People say that they can't find rubbing alcohol now. Can you buy booze and would that work in a pinch? What would you get in drinking alcohol that would work like in the old days?

Old fashioned LISTERINE mouthwash might work in a pinch too. Hydrogen peroxide? Iodine? Betadine? Some of that stains but for FIRST AID - it would work. Those things are meant for that.

KEEP your counters clean with dish soap, bar soap, etc. and rinse well. Bleach if you choose to mix it alone and with plenty of water. Whatever the proper ratio is. DO NOT mix bleach with some cleaning products! You may have a big problem there if they are NOT meant to be combined. LUNG and other issues. Look it up.

I do not know much about baby things being that I never had children but don't those baby wipe things that people TRAVEL with work well for giving your hands a quick wipe down? I am NOT talking about using them instead of washing/rinsing your hands well BEFORE you eat a meal or after you use the bathroom.

SOAP and water with a good rinse work the BEST!

Cate

 

[WoodsPlinker]

Also I'd much rather have corvid19 then MERS or Ebola.

Panic likely might make things worse. If the government needs medical supplies transported to a state but walmart is willing to pay the guy more to resupply toilet paper who wins?

My guess is whomever pays more. And if something comes from an infected country that we banned stuff from, do the shelves just sit bare for that product for a while?

My first thought when this started was, can we have those sleepovers like we did as a kid with chicken pox?

Because I want it done and over with. The panic and the government reaction is frightening me more then the virus.

 

[Member 52301]

I just thought of something else when it comes to cleaning your home.

Apple cider or white vinegar with hot water and rinse well. I do that but I still rely on soap and water the most.

Baking soda with hot water and rinse well. I do this in my refrigerator too.

If more people kept their HANDS CLEAN and actually cleaned them with soap/water and rinsed WELL instead of always relying on the THINGS that they THINK that they need like hand sanitizers... we might not even have some of these issues.

BUT people are brainwashed and think a quick wipe of sanitizer or plastic gloves that they might not even change as they should be changed are better than some OLD FASHIONED WAYS of cleaning.

Crazy!

I am NOT talking about what MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS NEED. They do NEED their supplies.

Cate

 

[SUPER X]

this is bad news

 

[ATCclears]

A cascade of consequences.

Companies that feed America brace for labor shortages amid worry about restocking stores

The U.S. has enough food for now, but industry experts fear distribution channels could be swamped by sick workers.

www.adn.com

 

[ATCclears]

This morning I found this CDC web page:
Burden of Influenza

If we use those numbers in the pyramid, use the high side of the estimates, and assume the population in the US is 330M:

• 45M contracted a strain of influenza, or 13.600% of the population.
• 810K hospitalizations. 1.8% of the infected, or 0.250% of the population.
• 61K deaths. 0.14% of the infected, or 0.019% of the population. Or, 2 of every 10,000 died in the population.

Now, let's guesstimate on COVID19. We are comparing here so let's assume 45M contract COVID19 (same rate as the strains of influenza, no considerations for a lack of herd immunity, no considerations for social distancing, no considerations for a longer hospitalization with ICU-like care):

• If 5% require hospitalization (45M * 0.05), that is 2.25M hospitalizations, or 0.68% of the population. Almost a 3x increase in the number of hospitalizations. I am using 5% since that seems to be a consistent (or even low) observation from other articles.
• If the Mortality Rate across all ages is 1% (45M * 0.01), that is 450K deaths, or 0.136% of the population. 7x increase in the number of deaths.

Assumptions:

• The Mortality Rate will not be equally distributed. COVID19 seems to prefer people over 60, people who smoke, and perhaps a few other heath considerations. I've read hypotheses indicating it might be due to those people having more ACE2 receptors.

Unknowns:

• Given the increased hospitalizations, will more seriously-ill people die due to triage, lack of medical personnel, or even a lack of medical supplies (e.g. ventillator)? This is already happening in Italy.
• Is the duration generally equivalent for each hospitalization? If COVID19 is worse then beds are in use longer and more resources are required.
• The Mortality Rate. That will only come from a retrospective. At a minimum, if the number of hospitalizations for COVID19 is 3x higher than influenza, then we would be foolish to assume the Mortality Rate is the same as influenza.

 

[cookie]

this is bad news

Probably would be a blessing.

 

[EHJ]

So this is making the rounds in a circle of friends I have.
Serious heavy hitters in the dotcom world in California.

Sorry so long...


ISSUE ONE: SOCIAL NORMS ARE POWERFUL MOTIVATORS AND GETTING IN THE WAY OF PEOPLE TAKING THE RIGHT STEPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC:

One of the current problems with addressing the pandemic is the social pressures of taking action today. It's awkward, and feels like an over-reaction. The reason it feels like an overreaction is that most people OVERWEIGHT the currently reported cases and inherently UNDERWEIGHT the mathematics of how the virus is spreading and what will happen in about 30 days time. This is because our brains tend to think linearly as opposed to logarithmically. It's the same reason many people don't save for retirement or understand compound interest.

To create a new social norm, human beings like to see behavior modeled. This serves as a signal that says, "oh, someone else is doing it so I should do it also."

SO HERE IS A SOCIAL BENCHMARK FOR REFERENCE - THIS IS WHAT I'VE DONE FOR MY FAMILY TO DATE:

I have already isolated my family. We have canceled EVERYTHING. We have canceled previously scheduled doctor visits. Social get togethers. Normal routine meetings. Everything has been canceled. It's difficult and socially awkward. Some of you think I'm crazy, but I'm doing it not because I am afraid, but because I am good at math (more on that in part 2). I had to have my 16 year old daughter quit her job coaching junior gymnasts at the local gym, with one day's notice and also tell my kids they can't attend youth group at church. Both of those were tough discussions. I told a very close friend he shouldn't stay at my house this weekend even though he was planning to and had booked his flight from the Bay Area. I canceled another dear friend's visit for later this month to go snowboarding on Mt Bachelor.

We are not eating out. Our kids are already doing online school so we don't have to make changes there. I would not send my kids to school even if they were in public or private school. We have eliminated all non-essential contact with other people. We will only venture out to grocery shop when required. We will still go outside to parks, go mountain biking, hiking, and recreate to keep ourselves sane and do other things as a family, just not with other people. We have stocked up on food and have a supply for ~2 months. We have stocked up on other goods that if depleted would create hardship, like medicines and feminine hygiene products. We have planned for shortages of essential items.

THE REASON I HAVE CHOSEN THIS ROUTE FOR MY FAMILY IS MULTI FACETED:

1. Although my family is considered low risk (I'm 49 in good health, Angi is 46 and in good health, and our kids are 14 and 16), we must assume that the healthcare system cannot help us, because the hospitals will become overwhelmed very quickly. Most American hospitals will become overwhelmed in approximately 30 days unless something changes. More on this in part 2 below. So although we are in great health and unlikely to become gravely ill, the risk is greater if you do not have access to the medical care that you need. This is something for everyone to consider. As a society we are accustomed to having access to the best medical care available. Our medical system will be overwhelmed unless we practice social distancing at scale. That said, the medical teams in Italy are seeing an alarming number of cases from people in their 40s and 50s.

2. It's not a matter of if social distancing will take place, it's a matter of when. This is because social distancing is the only way to stop the virus today. As I will explain in part 2 below, starting now is FAR more effective than starting even 2 days from now or tomorrow. This has been proven by Italy and China (and soon to be France and other European countries who have been slow to respond.). Wuhan went on lockdown after roughly 400 cases were identified (and they had access to testing that America has systematically failed to do well to date). The US already has more than 4 times this number of known infected cases as Wuhan did when it was shut down, and our citizens are far more mobile and therefore spreading the virus more broadly when compared to Wuhan. Yet our response is tepid at best.

If hand washing and "being smart" were sufficient Italy would not be in crisis. So I pray the draconian measures are coming from our government, because they are required to stop the spread of the virus. It's better to start sooner than later as the cost is actually far greater if we wait. I pray they close all schools and non-essential services the way that Italy and China have done.

3. Spreading the virus puts those in the high-risk category at much greater risk. This is the moral argument. It's a strong argument because there are only two ways, as of today, that the virus can be stopped: let it run its course and infect 100s of millions of people, or social distancing. There is no other way today. If you don't practice social distancing, people downstream from you that you transmit the virus to will die, and many will suffer.

4. The risk of infection is increasing exponentially, because the quantity of infected people, most who will not show symptoms, is doubling every three days. So the longer you wait to self-isolate, the greater the chance of you or someone you love becoming infected and then you infecting others because more of the population is becoming infected. There are twice as many infected people today as there was on Tuesday.

5. The virus is already in your town. It's everywhere. Cases are typically only discovered when someone gets sick enough to seek medical attention. This is important as it typically takes ~5 days to START showing ANY symptoms. Here's the math: For every known case there are approximately 50 unknown cases. This is because if I become sick, I infect several people today, and they infect a few people each tomorrow (as do I), and the total count of infected people doubles every 3 days until I get so sick I get hospitalized or get tested and become a "known case". But in the time it takes me to figure out I am sick 50 others downline from me now have the virus. So every third day the infection rate doubles until I get so sick that I realize I have the virus an am hospitalized or otherwise tested. Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital estimate that there are 50x more infections than known infections as reported (citation below). The implication of this is that the virus is already "everywhere" and spreading regardless if your city has zero, few or many reported cases. So instead of the 1573 reported known cases today there are likely 78,650 cases, at least, in the United States. Which will double to 157,300 by this Sunday. And this will double to 314,600 cases by this coming Wednesday. So in less than 1 week the number of total infected in the United States will quadruple. This is the nature of exponential math. It's actually unfortunate that we are publishing the figures for known cases as it diverts attention away from more important numbers (like the range of estimated actual cases).

6. Some people cannot, or will not, practice social distancing for a variety of reasons and will continue to spread the virus to many people. So everyone else must start today.

The reasons above are why I have begun to practice social distancing. It's not easy. But you should do it too.

The hospitals will be at capacity and there are not enough ventilators. You will hear a lot about this issue in the coming few weeks... the shortage of ventilators.

ISSUE TWO: MANY PEOPLE ARE FOCUSED ON THE WRONG NUMBERS:

Yes, the virus only kills a small percentage of those afflicted. Yes, the flu kills 10s of thousands of people annually. Yes, 80% of people will experience lightweight symptoms with COVID19. Yes the mortality rate of COVID19 is relatively low (1-2%). All of this true, but is immaterial. They are the wrong numbers to focus on...

The nature of exponential math is that the infection rates start slowly, and then goes off like a bomb and overwhelms the hospitals. You will understand this math clearly in the next section if you do the short math exercise. Evergreen hospital in Seattle is already in triage. I have heard credible reports from people on the ground that they are already becoming overwhelmed. And the bomb won't really go off for a few more days. Probably by Wednesday, March 18th (next week). In just a few days from now we will hear grave reports from Seattle hospitals.

You should assume the virus is everywhere at this point, even if you have no confirmed cases in your area.

YOU SHOULD DO THIS SIMPLE 2 MINUTE MATH EXERCISE (NO REALLY TAKE TWO MINUTES AND DO IT):

To further understand exponential growth, take the number of confirmed cases in your area and multiply by 10 (or 50 if you believe Harvard and Massachusetts General estimations) to account for the cases that are not yet confirmed. If you have no confirmed cases choose a small number. I'd suggest 10 cases in your city, if no cases are yet reported. But you can use whatever number you like. This number of infected people doubles every ~3 days as the infection spreads. So literally take your number, and multiply by 2. Then do it again. Then do it again. Then do it again. Do this multiplication exercise 10 times in total.

2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x (the number of estimated infections in your city today (not just the reported cases)).

This result is the estimate for the actual cases in your area 30 days from now. The math will take 30 seconds to complete with a calculator and it's worth doing the math to see how it grows. This end number is the number of cases in your city 30 days from today if a large percentage of the population do not practice social distancing.

2 to the 10th power is 1024. When something doubles 10 times, it's the same as multiplying by 1024. The infection rate of the virus doubles every 3 days. In thirty days there will be 1,024 times the number of infected people in your area as there is today if your community does not immediately put social distancing into practice. One thousand and twenty four times as many infected people as there is today, in just 30 days.

Next, divide the final number (the scary big one) you just calculated by the current population of your city and you will be able to get the percentage of people THAT YOU KNOW PERSONALLY who will be infected 30 days from now.

Next take 15% (multiply by 0.15) of that final 30 day number of total infected people. This will provide an estimate of the serious cases which will require acute medical care, and compare it to the number of beds and ventilators available at your local hospital. Google the "number of beds" and the name of your local hospital now. It takes 2 seconds and the number of beds is easy to find. 65% of beds are already occupied by patients unrelated to the coronavirus. St Charles in Bend, Oregon where I live, has 226 beds and the town is roughly 100,000 people. Most hospitals have on average, 40 or fewer ventilators.

These numbers you just calculated are the problem: Too many patients, not enough beds, and a serious shortage of ventilators (the biggest problem) if we don't immediately begint social distancing. More on this biggest problem related to the insufficient quantity of ventilators is below.

COUNTRIES THAT GET OVERWHELMED WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER MORTALITY RATE BECAUSE THEY WON'T BE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY CARE FOR THE SICK.

And by sick I mean not just coronavirus patients. Your son or daughter that needs acute care surgery this May for his badly broken leg will be attended to by an orthopedic doctor that has been working at maximum capacity and working 18 hour shifts for 7 days every week for 6 weeks because it was required to care for all the coronavirus patients at her hospital. Or the orthopedic surgeon will be sick with the virus and your son or daughter will be operated on by a non-expert or a member of the National Guard. Your elderly Mom that has diabetes and goes into acute distress next month may not receive ANY care because the doctors are consumed and have to prioritize patients based on triage handbooks filled with success rate probabilities. Your sibling's family that are all injured in a terrible car crash in June will have diminished care. If one of them needs a ventilator there will be none available because all of them will be in use by critical coronavirus patients. Your young friend with cancer and a compromised immune system from treatment will succumb even though the cancer was curable and the treatment was working, because their body was too fragile to combat the coronavirus due to the chemotherapy and they couldn't receive the customized, acute care required due to the hospital being overwhelmed. All of the above is currently happening in Italy, who had the same number of infections we have today just 2 weeks ago. You must start today.

The count of actual virus infections doubles every ~3 days. The news and government agencies are lagging in their response. So we hear that the US only has 1573 cases today (3/12/20), ( see Coronavirus Update (Live): 162,699 Cases and 6,069 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer) and it doesn't seem like a lot. It would be better to report the estimated actual cases, since reported cases don't tell us much. However, we know from China that the actual number of cases are at least an order of magnitude greater than the reported cases, because people get infected and do not display symptoms. In math, an "order of magnitude" means ten times difference, or put another way, a factor of 10. 100 is 10 times greater than 10, so it's an order of magnitude greater.

Harvard Medical School / Massachusetts General Hospital just released their estimate (recording is here: 2020.03.12 A Coordinated, Boston-wide Response to COVID-19) that the actual cases are 50x greater than the reported cases. So we likely have 75,000 cases in the United States already. The number of reported cases is not that important.

But let's assume the current number of cases is only 10,000 ACTUAL cases in the United States just to be conservative and model out what will happen:

If we don't stop the virus from spreading, in 30 days we will have 2 to the 10th power more cases of infected people because the infection count doubles every 3 days (the virus doubles every 3 days and there are 10, 3 day periods in 30 days).

The math: 2 to the 10th power means 1,024 times as many cases as we have today (2 times 2 repeated 10 times).

This number is a catastrophically big problem for all of us: We will have 10 million+ actual cases (10,000 actual cases today x 1,024) in the United States in just 30 days' time if we continue without extreme social distancing. 10 million people with the virus. And it will keep doubling every 3 days unless we practice social distancing.

15% of cases require significant medical attention, which means that 1.5 million people will require significant medical attention if 10 million people get infected (15% of 10 Million total infections = 1.5 million people requiring hospitalization).

1.5 million hospitalizations is about 50% more than we have beds for at hospitals in the United States. And 65% of all beds are already occupied in our hospitals. But patients with the virus need ICU beds, not just any old hospital bed. Only about 10% of hospital beds are considered intensive care. So we will have a huge bed shortage, but that is not the biggest problem, as we can erect temporary ICU shelters and bring in more temporary beds, as Italy has already done, and California and Washington hospitals have already done. Evergreen Hospital in Seattle has already erected temporary triage tents in the parking lot as of 3/13/20. All regular beds are full at Evergreen Hospital as of yesterday.

Once the government of China, Norway, and Italy came to understand this math, they reacted accordingly and shut EVERYTHING down. Extreme social distancing is the only response available to stop the virus today. The United States is not responding well nor are other countries like France or the UK. Countries that do not respond well will pay a much larger, catastrophic price.

But hospital beds are not the big problem. The lack of ventilators is the big problem. Most estimates peg the ventilators in the United States at roughly 100,000 to 150,000 units. See Mechanical ventilators in US acute care hospitals. - PubMed - NCBI (admittedly dated) and The U.S. doesn't have enough ICU beds or ventilators to deal with even a moderate coronavirus outbreak

The primary and most serious comorbid (comorbid is a medical term that means co-existing or happening at the same time) condition brought on by the Coronavirus is something called bilateral interstitial pneumonia which requires ventilators for treatment of seriously ill patients. So if 1.5M people of the 10 million infected 30 days from now require acute care (15% of the 10M estimated total infections), 1.3M may not get the care that they need because we don't have enough ventilators in the United States. And remember, this is only if ALL OF US EFFECTIVELY start social distancing by April 11th (30 days from today).

BUT IF WE START EXTREME SOCIAL DISTANCING BY MARCH 23 (12 days from this writing), WE AVOID OVER 1.4 MILLION PEOPLE GETTING CRITICALLY ILL AND OVERWHELMING THE HOSPITALS:

If everyone takes extreme measures to social distance, and the United States can dramatically reduce the spread of the virus 12 days from now, the math is very different, as the exponential growth will only be 2 to the 4th power (12 days divided by the doubling rate of every 3 days equals the exponent of 4):

2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16

So instead of 10 Million cases in the United States if we wait 30 days, if we act 18 days sooner, we will have only 160,000 cases (16 times the estimated 10,000 actual cases as of today), of which 15% are likely to require critical care. This is 24,000 critical patients (a huge difference compared to 1.5 million acute patients). The difference between taking extreme measures now, versus waiting even a few days, is very large due to how exponents work in math.

THE OUTCOME IS EVEN BETTER IF WE TAKE ACTION IN THE NEXT 6 DAYS: If the vast majority of the population self isolates and implements social distancing in only 6 days from now the exponential math is 2 to the 2nd power (6 days divided by the 3 days it takes the virus to double means the exponent is only 2). In math this is "two squared".

2 x 2 = 4

Multiplied by the estimated 10,000 ACTUAL cases as of today (3/12/20) that means only 40,000 total cases will develop, 15% of which may be critical which is 6,000 critical patients.

This is why you should share this post broadly. If people begin social distancing in the next 6 days it will greatly reduce the impact on all of us. It's why they say a "post goes viral".

SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL REDUCE THE FINANCIAL IMPACT TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY:

Finally, the longer everyone waits to practice significant social distancing the greater the economic hardship will be on all of us. Lost jobs. Mortgage defaults. Closed businesses. Bankruptcies. All will be minimized if you start social distancing today.

Some of the reasons the economic impacts will be reduced are worth mentioning: If we stop the virus now the overall duration of the outbreak will be far shorter. The stock market will normalize more quickly and recover more quickly. Businesses and people will be able to survive a shorter duration outbreak vs a longer duration outbreak. More companies will avoid bankruptcy if we begin to practice social distancing now.

This is a big financial reason to begin social distancing if you are employed by any company: if companies see that the virus is being slowed, they will be less likely to conduct layoffs. You will be more likely to be laid off or experience a job-related event if we don't practice social distancing immediately. As an HR executive, I've been involved in many, many layoffs. It's the last thing companies want to do. But if they see that the pandemic will be shorter lived vs long and drawn out, they are less likely to make the permanent decision of laying off staff.

The overall economic impact that hits your bank account will be greater if you wait or you don't practice social distancing. This is why Norway acted now, because it's less economic impact to take drastic measures early than to do them later, and it saves a lot of lives and suffering by doing so. And Norway has only one confirmed death as of this writing.

 

[CountryGent]

Spain's streets turn eerily quiet following coronavirus lockdown.

 

[Howard1955]

My cousin who is a truck driver sent me this note:

"I am specialized hauling oil field chemicals but i have seen no reduction in traffic, the shortages are due to idiots panic buying , it will settle down , some truck stops are initiating safety policies to slow spread through the trucking community smart drivers will carry lysol as i am . not sure where this leads but the shortages in the stores will settle down especially as the public understands the media are pumping this up to effect the economy and election ,, it warrants attention but smart considered attention ,, I dont think the trucks will stop moving because drivers tend to be patriots that step up in times of trouble."

 

[EHJ]

An excerpt from the Stafford Act that specifically outlines 2A protections and prohibitions on firearm confiscation...

Under the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act:

Sec. 706. Firearms Policies (42 U.S.C. 5207)

(a) Prohibition on Confiscation of Firearms – No officer or employee of the United States (including any member of the uniformed services), or person operating pursuant to or under color of Federal law, or receiving Federal funds, or under control of any Federal official, or providing services to such an officer, employee, or other person, while acting in support of relief from a major disaster or emergency, may –

(1) temporarily or permanently seize, or authorize seizure of, any firearm the possession of which is not prohibited under Federal, State, or local law, other than for forfeiture in compliance with Federal law or as evidence in a criminal investigation;

(2) require registration of any firearm for which registration is not required by Federal, State, or local law;

(3) prohibit possession of any firearm, or promulgate any rule, regulation, or order prohibiting possession of any firearm, in any place or by any person where such possession is not otherwise prohibited by Federal, State, or local law; or

(4) prohibit the carrying of firearms by any person otherwise authorized to carry firearms under Federal, State, or local law, solely because such person is operating under the direction, control, or supervision of a Federal agency in support of relief from the major disaster or emergency.

(b) limitation – Nothing in this section shall be construed to prohibit any person in subsection (a) from requiring the temporary surrender of a firearm as a condition for entry into any mode of transportation used for rescue or evacuation during a major disaster or emergency, provided that such temporarily surrendered firearm is returned at the completion of such rescue or evacuation.

Looks like someone thought ahead.

 

[Dwesson]

This morning I found this CDC web page:
Burden of Influenza

If we use those numbers in the pyramid, use the high side of the estimates, and assume the population in the US is 330M:

• 45M contracted a strain of influenza, or 13.600% of the population.
• 810K hospitalizations. 1.8% of the infected, or 0.250% of the population.
• 61K deaths. 0.14% of the infected, or 0.019% of the population. Or, 2 of every 10,000 died in the population.

Now, let's guesstimate on COVID19. We are comparing here so let's assume 45M contract COVID19 (same rate as the strains of influenza, no considerations for a lack of herd immunity, no considerations for social distancing, no considerations for a longer hospitalization with ICU-like care):

• If 5% require hospitalization (45M * 0.05), that is 2.25M hospitalizations, or 0.68% of the population. Almost a 3x increase in the number of hospitalizations. I am using 5% since that seems to be a consistent (or even low) observation from other articles.
• If the Mortality Rate across all ages is 1% (45M * 0.01), that is 450K deaths, or 0.136% of the population. 7x increase in the number of deaths.

Assumptions:

• The Mortality Rate will not be equally distributed. COVID19 seems to prefer people over 60, people who smoke, and perhaps a few other heath considerations. I've read hypotheses indicating it might be due to those people having more ACE2 receptors.

Unknowns:

• Given the increased hospitalizations, will more seriously-ill people die due to triage, lack of medical personnel, or even a lack of medical supplies (e.g. ventillator)? This is already happening in Italy.
• Is the duration generally equivalent for each hospitalization? If COVID19 is worse then beds are in use longer and more resources are required.
• The Mortality Rate. That will only come from a retrospective. At a minimum, if the number of hospitalizations for COVID19 is 3x higher than influenza, then we would be foolish to assume the Mortality Rate is the same as influenza.

Missing a big unknown.

Seasonality

 

[Hop Sing]

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