Ammunition Bubble timeline and prediction. (Specifically .22lr)

[Stomper]

Well done in your prognostications so far!


I believe we shall call you.... "Nostrildomas".

 

[LayoutGuru2]

Last brick of .22 LR I purchased was on January 31st. I've been checking stores on my drive home 2-3 times a week since then with no success. Finally got a 325 round box of Federal AutoMatch for $19.99 at Fisherman's Marine & Outdoor in Tigard today.

 

[rick benjamin]

An online outfit out of St Helens advertising Federal .22 x525 for $70.
Nov 2012 I bought Fed 525 for $12.95 at BiMart Damascus.

 

[Kimber Custom]

I picked up 450 rounds from Sportsman's last week

1325 from Fisherman's yesterday and another 325 from Fisherman's today



Still not the .06 it was but at least there is something on the shelf.

 

[pokerace]

If this is true we are in deep doo doo. This is an email I rec.



Know where we can get any ammo ????!!

9mm Ammunition
You may not know this but George Soros owns most of the ammunition
manufacturing companies and many arms manufacturers as well. He's selling
ONLY to the government right now, per WH & DHS orders. My son works for
ATK, who owns just about all the rest of the ammunition companies that
Soros doesn't own. He tells me that ATK has been ordered by the federal
government to curtail sales of ammunition, primers and powder to the
retail market. What you see currently on the shelves is old stock and
what's left in the warehouses since the CT shootings and new stock will
NOT be appearing anytime soon. ATK and Soros' companies have more than
enough government contracts to keep them going for years to come.

Like, Soros' companies, ATK is a huge defense contractor and they've been told
to sell ONLY to the DOD, TSA, FBI, DHS and local/federal law enforcement
agencies. This is VERY scary and VERY ominous for what's coming down the
pike in the future.

My son has seen the proposed pricing schedule for Federal, CCI, Hornady,
Remington, Winchester and several other ammunition manufacturer's lines of
ammunition, components, reloading equipment (ATK owns Outers, RCBS, Hoppe
and a host of others) and he's flabbergasted! As an example, when the
sales of .22 LR bulk ammo resumes, the pricing will be over $50.00 for a
535-round Value Pak! That's nearly a dime-a-shot!! They're also going to
raise the prices by 300 - 400% on dies, presses, powder measures and the
like.


He's in management there at ATK in Salt Lake City and they're NOT
happy with it at all! They firmly believe this will basically shut-down
the civilian market while leaving the government as the only purchaser of
their products. He saw the government pricing for the centerfire
ammunition they've been stockpiling and their prices have actually dropped
from a year ago so the feds are buying this stuff REAL cheap while we
can't even get our hands on it at all!

Something I've always said since Obummer came onto the scene in 2008 is
that, even if they can't actually ban the weapons themselves, the
government will make it nearly impossible for us civilians to feed them
with ammo, reloading components and the like. The WH doesn't HAVE to
actually ban the guns, as Biden said in one of his many faux pas,
foot-in-the-mouth, Freudian slip speeches he's famous for making.

All we have to do is to make it too expensive to use them and the public will
eventually give them back to us if we offer an attractive price for these
weapons". What's an "attractive price" - a $10.00 Walmart gift card for a
$3,000.00 custom hunting rifle? Those were his EXACT words in one of the
speeches he gave to the freshman congressmen last week! Remember, Biden
was one of the architects of the Clinton gun ban of years ago. I think
he's as dangerous to the Second Amendment as Obozo is, maybe more so,
because he's so stupid and doesn't know the muzzle of a gun from the
butt..."

Feel free to pass this on so gun owners will be aware of what we're up
against. I doubt the NRA can do anything about it, IMHO. La Pierre can
get on all the talk shows he's invited to and cry the blues about the
assault weapons laws that are forthcoming from the WH but the real crux of
the matter will be whether or not we'll ever be able to purchase
ammunition (at all) or, if we can, what we'll be paying for it.

As an aside, here, I deal a LOT with Midsouth Shooters Supply for my reloading
components. Two weeks ago I ordered 500 cases each of .45 Casull, .44
Magnum, .357 Magnum and 9mm Parabellum. I was told everything I had
ordered was out-of-stock and no in-stock delivery date was being forecast.

They wouldn't even accept a backorder for this stuff! Think the
government isn't manipulating it? Think again, my friend.

 

[xm193]

If this is true we are in deep doo doo. This is an email I rec.



Know where we can get any ammo ????!!




9mm Ammunition
You may not know this but George Soros owns most of the ammunition
manufacturing companies and many arms manufacturers as well. He's selling
ONLY to the government right now, per WH & DHS orders. My son works for
ATK, who owns just about all the rest of the ammunition companies that
Soros doesn't own. He tells me that ATK has been ordered by the federal
government to curtail sales of ammunition, primers and powder to the
retail market. What you see currently on the shelves is old stock and
what's left in the warehouses since the CT shootings and new stock will
NOT be appearing anytime soon. ATK and Soros' companies have more than
enough government contracts to keep them going for years to come.

Like, Soros' companies, ATK is a huge defense contractor and they've been told
to sell ONLY to the DOD, TSA, FBI, DHS and local/federal law enforcement
agencies. This is VERY scary and VERY ominous for what's coming down the
pike in the future.

My son has seen the proposed pricing schedule for Federal, CCI, Hornady,
Remington, Winchester and several other ammunition manufacturer's lines of
ammunition, components, reloading equipment (ATK owns Outers, RCBS, Hoppe
and a host of others) and he's flabbergasted! As an example, when the
sales of .22 LR bulk ammo resumes, the pricing will be over $50.00 for a
535-round Value Pak! That's nearly a dime-a-shot!! They're also going to
raise the prices by 300 - 400% on dies, presses, powder measures and the
like.


He's in management there at ATK in Salt Lake City and they're NOT
happy with it at all! They firmly believe this will basically shut-down
the civilian market while leaving the government as the only purchaser of
their products. He saw the government pricing for the centerfire
ammunition they've been stockpiling and their prices have actually dropped
from a year ago so the feds are buying this stuff REAL cheap while we
can't even get our hands on it at all!

Something I've always said since Obummer came onto the scene in 2008 is
that, even if they can't actually ban the weapons themselves, the
government will make it nearly impossible for us civilians to feed them
with ammo, reloading components and the like. The WH doesn't HAVE to
actually ban the guns, as Biden said in one of his many faux pas,
foot-in-the-mouth, Freudian slip speeches he's famous for making.

All we have to do is to make it too expensive to use them and the public will
eventually give them back to us if we offer an attractive price for these
weapons". What's an "attractive price" - a $10.00 Walmart gift card for a
$3,000.00 custom hunting rifle? Those were his EXACT words in one of the
speeches he gave to the freshman congressmen last week! Remember, Biden
was one of the architects of the Clinton gun ban of years ago. I think
he's as dangerous to the Second Amendment as Obozo is, maybe more so,
because he's so stupid and doesn't know the muzzle of a gun from the
butt..."

Feel free to pass this on so gun owners will be aware of what we're up
against. I doubt the NRA can do anything about it, IMHO. La Pierre can
get on all the talk shows he's invited to and cry the blues about the
assault weapons laws that are forthcoming from the WH but the real crux of
the matter will be whether or not we'll ever be able to purchase
ammunition (at all) or, if we can, what we'll be paying for it.

As an aside, here, I deal a LOT with Midsouth Shooters Supply for my reloading
components. Two weeks ago I ordered 500 cases each of .45 Casull, .44
Magnum, .357 Magnum and 9mm Parabellum. I was told everything I had
ordered was out-of-stock and no in-stock delivery date was being forecast.

They wouldn't even accept a backorder for this stuff! Think the
government isn't manipulating it? Think again, my friend.

This email is pure b.s sorros doesn't have anything to do with ammo shortage!

 

[3MTA3]

This email is pure b.s sorros doesn't have anything to do with ammo shortage!

He does, but only indirectly. His campaign contributions and other political activism has helped to get and keep the gun grabbers elected and well fed. If they hadn't started attempting to pass the legislation there would not have been the resulting panic.

The Soros write up above is a well known hoax.

 

[cpy911]

Hey guys. OP here. Went on Gunbroker.com to check prices today, 6-4-2013. I am seeing average price for .22lr roaming around $45-$55 a box. The most interesting thing is even at that price there are a lot of auctions that never were bid on. Sellers who are going for 3X retail are seeing their stuff not selling. This whole bubble is now bursting.

I called the top or maximum price of $100 to happen in late April and I may have been early a couple weeks on that. I think we did did not quite hit that insane price, but we are now around 40%-50% off from the top. Tells me the bubble has burst and we are following the traditional bubble timeline nicely.

I reiterate what I originally said on 3/21/2013: "Once the top has been reached, we will follow the blow off phase all the way down to $20 brick everywhere including auctions and classifieds, which will take another three months. Once this happens, those flipping and hoarding will see the blow off and will ease up on demand. I predict July or August we will see .22lr ammo on the shelves at Wal-mart any day of the week at around $20 a brick. "

 

[judicator]

good times, the ammo bubble is no different than the housing bubble, just much quicker turn-around.

I don't do nearly as much shooting as when I was single and had free time, so I have literally been unaffected by the price hikes.

maybe by the end of summer, I'll get some target practice in, and be ready to buy some more about when everything flattens out.

 

[jrprich]

Just had an email pop up from Outdoor Deal Network (not) PROCLAIMING that Ammo is Back in stock........sure if your ready to pay .22 cents per round for .22lr or .66 a round for 9mm.

I just bought 1000 rounds of Federal .45acp for $442. shipped from Hyatt Gun Store and felt that that was too high but I bought it anyway.

 

[Horses are delicious]

This email is pure b.s sorros doesn't have anything to do with ammo shortage!

Even the NRA's fact sheet on Soros is less stinky than this old sack of fish heads. Do your own research, people. Con vs. Lib, Rep vs. Dem, Left vs. Right. I never liked the taste of Kool-Aid. I suggest you give it up yourselves.
People that don't shoot/own guns don't buy ammunition. We are fighting against ourselves when we panic, gouge and hourde.

 

[SOrez]

I bought a 400 rd brick of American Eagle at Big R for $23.99 two weeks ago and one for $19.99 at Bi Mart last week. I have also bought different brands of 9mm for $14.99 at Big R in the last few weeks.

 

[pdx lefty]

The thing i would like to throw into the equation is it only takes one, one homicidal coward POS to change the sharp decline in price/availability into 180 degree rocket ride higher than the current peak. Once you account for our newest generation of firearm owners looking for ammo, the next generation is just around the corner willing to spend whatever it takes to load theirs.

If things return to "normal" the people that didn't learn their lessen this time need not complain next time.

Lefty.

 

[Stomper]

Tonight @ Bi-Mart I just bought a 500 rnd. box of .22lr for $18.97, and one of two 200 rnd. Mega Packs of UMC .223 sitting on the shelf for $79.99... sent the wife in for other Mega Pack of the .223 as it was a one box limit on the Mega Packs ... I'd have had her get another 500 rnd . box of .22lr, but I have so much ammo in the safe ATM that I can barely get the thing shut!

And before anyone asks, or shoots their mouth off....

NO, it is NOT FOR SALE!! (unless you have a cool $500k in gold or silver)

 

[Kimber Custom]

Cabella's in Union Gap had a brick of Lapua for $58.99 that I couldn't quite bring myself to buy. They let me have one of the sleeves of CCI Mini Mags. There were 4 more on the shelf.

I stopped in Bi-Mart after that only to hear 'just sold my last brick'. Sure enough it was in the guys cart next too me. Should have gotten lunch *after* Bi-Mart. I wasn't too unhappy though since it was thunderbolt but beggers can't bee choosers at this point.

I proceeded to stop at Wal-Mart in Hood River only to be told 'should have been here yesterday'.

All in all I visited 5 stores today but only found that single sleeve.

 

[rick benjamin]

Gresham BiMart filled the .17 .22 shelves tonite, with boxes of .... clay pidgeons.
Moved the BeeBees up to the nosebleed shelf.
Saw some 220 Swift, shotgun shells, 7mm behind the counter.
Other side, 3 lbs RS-7, no primers.
Must be hiding the good stuff in ze bunker~

 

[LayoutGuru2]

Last brick of .22 LR I purchased was on January 31st. I've been checking stores on my drive home 2-3 times a week since then with no success. Finally got a 325 round box of Federal AutoMatch for $19.99 at Fisherman's Marine & Outdoor in Tigard today.

No improvement over the last 30 days - Haven't seen any .22 LR Bricks - Grabbed 2 x 50 CCI Stinger at Fisherman's 2 weeks ago.

 

[Navman]

Stopped by Bi-Mart in Woodburn, shelves were bare as usual, asked the counter guy "when does ammo come in"?

He said "Bi-Mart no longer sends ahead what is coming in as they have had fist fights at the counter in some of there stores" really, so sad!

All I want is some .22 & 9mm to take my Son shooting, hard times for us all right now!

 

[Stomper]

He said "Bi-Mart no longer sends ahead what is coming in as they have had fist fights at the counter in some of there stores" really, so sad!

You just wait until, hunger, sickness, depression, being cold, and abject fear are added to the mix WHEN everything collapses... THEN its going to getty REALLY brutal.

 

[Burt Gummer]

All I want is some .22 & 9mm to take my Son shooting

I find that very sad. I hope you find a good deal on some so you two can get out and have some fun.