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Ammunition Bubble timeline and prediction. (Specifically .22lr)

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by cpy911, Mar 21, 2013.

  1. cpy911

    cpy911 Newberg Active Member

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    Hi,
    I have been looking at this ammunition price bubble recently. I understand there might be some of you denying we are in one and that the shortage and high costs may continue, that is fine. I respect that. However, I am absolutely certain that we are in a bubble and I am going to predict the timeline for its completion.
    I am working off the following image:

    stages_bubble.jpg

    Right now, I believe we are in the greed phase, a subcategory of mania phase. People are buying a $20 brick of .22lr and selling for $70-$80 on Gunbroker.com or other classifieds. The buyers are accepting this reality of price, availability and paying it. That is fine, it is a free market. I am calling this greed phase, with no moral judgement implied. I believe it has taken us about three months to reach this point. Based on this build up, I predict about another 3-4 weeks until we hit the "New Paradigm" of just the fact that you can not get ammo cheap any more. So, I am calling the top in later weeks of April with .22lr going for about $100 a brick at the online classifieds.

    Once the top has been reached, we will follow the blow off phase all the way down to $20 brick everywhere including auctions and classifieds, which will take another three months. Once this happens, those flipping and hoarding will see the whole blow off and will ease up on demand. I predict July or August we will see .22lr ammo on the shelves at Bi-mart any day of the week at around $20 a brick.

    So, if you can be patient you will be able to get your ammunition at the original price.
    I believe we are in a bubble and we have seen many of these throughout history. Smart men have made a lot of money off people and sheared the sheep so to speak.

    I am not that smart, so I am sitting this one out.

    Cheers.

    stages_bubble.jpg
     
  2. dmancornell

    dmancornell Portland, OR New Member

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    AR-15 prices have already started to dip a couple weeks ago.

    9mm bulk price dropped slightly the last few days. The bubble could have popped already.

    Can't wait for the despair phase, I'm going to buy so much s***. :D
     
  3. kickstart my heart

    kickstart my heart South King County, WA Active Member

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    I have a feeling .22lr will be the last to approach normal pre-panic pricing. Everyone will be worried for awhile that if this happens again they "won't be able to find any", and it'll get hoarded for awhile. .223 has dropped quite a bit from panic mode price. Been finding it locally for under .50 per round (which still ain't good) for Prvi Partizan. Better than the buck a round people were asking. I'm waiting for .308 to drop. I can't justify spending $1.00 to 1.50 per round people are asking. That's nuts!
     
  4. Silver Fox

    Silver Fox Puyallup, WA Well-Known Member

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    +1 Brother.

    Amen.

    10-4 good buddy.

    Heeeee-Haaaawww!!!!! I can't wait pardner!

    SF-
     
  5. Glock Jock

    Glock Jock Wilsonville , OR Well-Known Member

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    Cheap AK's and ammo are on the way!!!!!!!!
     
  6. gallogiro

    gallogiro Willamette Valley Active Member

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    Last time this happened, the prices dropped back down but not back to "normal". Pre-Obama prices if I recall; walmart winchester 9mm 100rd was like $11.00. After the "bubble" burst that same box was over $20.00.

    I can't wait to see ammo on the shelf but I don't expect it to be close to what prices were 6 months ago.
     
  7. salmonriverjohn

    salmonriverjohn N.W Oregon coast, Gods country Well-Known Member

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    I think it's all a conspiracy. One that was created by a consortium of sage rats and other rodents to buy and destroy all the available ammunition that would otherwise be used to reduce their numbers, I mean what the heck Tucsaconi Phil (or whatever the dirty little rats name is) has been brought up on charges already and is being blamed for the late spring and snow in the east and a death sentence has been called for so why not?

    Them little rodents will stop at nothing, absolutely nothing I say. Sink holes are being created in various parts of the country by them burrowing in mass to hide all the ammo and such.

    I noticed that they haven't seen all the Crossman .177 pellets they absently minded overlooked that were above ankle level on the shelf's, so I purchased all 10.000 that were available to hedge against a panic run on them too.;)

    To the OP. In all seriousness, I believe your spot on. This isn't the 1st time panic has gripped the masses, and perception is reality after all.
     
  8. speeddemon94

    speeddemon94 The Rogue Well-Known Member

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    Punxutawney Phil
     
  9. salmonriverjohn

    salmonriverjohn N.W Oregon coast, Gods country Well-Known Member

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    You see speeddeamon94, even though I didn't know how to spell the dirty little rats name, I knew there was "punx" involved in there somewhere!
     
  10. speeddemon94

    speeddemon94 The Rogue Well-Known Member

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    I see a theme, with how you've butchered my name...:laugh:
     
  11. RICKRWS

    RICKRWS VANCOUVER Active Member

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    I am noticing it getting better slowly. I found a brick of 22LR at Fishermens but was limited to one box, which is alright with me. I also noticed the price of AR 15 dropping. i am hoping when the panic is over alot of people who bought Pistols out of fear will be willing to sell at a good price. There is a ton of Firearms out there but no Ammo. :laugh:
     
  12. Kevatc

    Kevatc Oregon Well-Known Member

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    I predict that ammo will become easier to find over the next 3-6 months but think prices will only moderate a little.
     
  13. BlakeStone

    BlakeStone Everett, WA Member

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    The Washington Arms Collectors show in Puyallup had 9mm at a buck a round.
    Nice graph, here's hoping for a prolonged "Despair" sale on ammo.
     
  14. deen_ad

    deen_ad Vancouver, WA Well-Known Member

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    Just talked to a friend of mine, was at the Cornfoot show this weekend. Said people were still paying $50 for a brick of .22. They would complain but still reach for their wallet. Also said .223 or 5.56 was going for 80¢ a round. I got lucky in that I thought I was low on .223 and ordered another 1,000 rds last Oct, then I found 1,000 rds in my safe. Maybe I should sell some of my stash!
     
  15. deen_ad

    deen_ad Vancouver, WA Well-Known Member

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    I was at the Hwy 99 Wal*Mart today, absolutely NO handgun ammo although there was some .410 self defense and rifle ammo. Sign said the warehouse was out of stock.
     
  16. PMB

    PMB Vancouver, Washington Active Member

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    When I read the posts about how guys buying everything up, even at inflated prices, I usually detect a note of derision. Guys who are buying $50 bricks are called fools... the fellows buying every caliber that they own, and at inflated prices and as many boxes as are allowed- other gentlemen refer to them as panic buyers, and "the real cause of this hysteria."

    Well... Before this hysteria I had around 100k .22 in various types. Fav being the CB Longs, for their near silence in a bolt action bull barrel.
    I had around 10k in each of the calibers that I shoot regularly, and about 2k-5k in each of my "one-off" calibers, or rarely shot birds.

    The very day of the ugly mess out east, I upped my supply by about 50% across the board. I did get it before any spike in prices at all.

    If I had NOT been able to get it before any spike or shortage on the shelves, I very likely would have paid the inflated prices. The prices didn't concern me... The SUPPLY concerned me.

    Maybe it's foolish... But I have children and I want each of their armories to be well stocked and well used. I don't want dust collecting on my childrens' pieces.

    Green paper? Means almost nothing to me, and certainly if it's in a bank there's even less.
    The money in the retirement account? Pshaw.

    But good cold hard guns and ammunition- now there's a commodity that I know and trust.

    If we reach another reasonable level in pricing, I plan on doubling my ammunition stocks. Hell, I am doing it now, but more slowly and aiming more for long term ability, like brass, casting equipment, etc.

    Prices and supply SHOULD drop back down to where they were- but I don't think it'll happen for at least a year.

    And I am glad... because it means many of my brethren and sistren are out there building up there stockpiles, and many more are waking up, taking lessons, and buying a new piece.

    I don't mind paying a bit more, because our numbers and our strength is growing.

    I hope.
     
  17. Kelzebubba

    Kelzebubba Fort Worth, TX/USA Public Outhouse Active Member

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    PMB.

    I appreciate your optimism, but most of this sell out of ammo is because of the vultures that are trying to resell it at a higher price.
     
  18. STANGBOYTOM

    STANGBOYTOM WA STATE Member

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    If I had NOT been able to get it before any spike or shortage on the shelves, I very likely would have paid the inflated prices. The prices didn't concern me... The SUPPLY concerned me.

    Maybe it's foolish... But I have children and I want each of their armories to be well stocked and well used. I don't want dust collecting on my childrens' pieces.

    Green paper? Means almost nothing to me, and certainly if it's in a bank there's even less.
    The money in the retirement account? Pshaw.

    But good cold hard guns and ammunition- now there's a commodity that I know and trust.



    I feel exactly the same , five or six years ago I would have thought that thinking was nuts, but it's a different world than it use to be, we are in way over our heads as a country 17 trillion to get back to broke is flat scary. Next year I have to purchase something, I.E. health insurance, or get fined, yea that's constitutional, and I haven't seen any 22LR on the shelf this year ! It really got me thinking what if instead of missing 22lr it was gasoline, or food ? I use to think the prepper type were a bunch of nut bags, now I am seriously rethinking things.
     
  19. cpy911

    cpy911 Newberg Active Member

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    Well, it is starting to get toward the end of April.

    I just did a check on Gunbroker and I see signs of price peaking. I would say the average going rate for a brick of .22lr ammo is $60-$70 on Gunbroker and now I see sellers are starting to offer to pay shipping costs in an effort to keep the sale price stable.

    The prices are no longer increasing, but have flattened out. The bubble is no longer blowing up, but remaining stable. How strong and stable is a bubble? Go ask your kids!

    I still believe we need until the end of April and part of May to burst the bubble. Once it bursts, it will be overnight phenomenon and prices on Gunbroker will be down to $30 a brick shipped. Once flippers can no longer make 400% by standing in line at their Walmart on ammo delivery day, buy a brick of .22lr for $20 and flip it on Gunbroker for $60, that demand will go away and store shelves will start to show some inventory....

    The people paying the $60-$70 prices on Gunbroker are holding the bubble together for the time being, but they will eventually get worn out. Once they balk at rimfire ammo costing more than what I can reload cast .357 Magnum rounds, it will no longer make sense to pay the high price and make more sense to shoot something else.

    Cheers!
     
    bcdon and (deleted member) like this.
  20. cpy911

    cpy911 Newberg Active Member

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    Well folks,
    The flipping days for .22lr is getting more and more difficult. People are waking up and not feeding the frenzy. I called the top to be May sometime and now we are going to see the gouge prices drop. See my original post on 3/21/2013:

    "So, I am calling the top in later weeks of April with .22lr going for about $100 a brick at the online classifieds.

    Once the top has been reached, we will follow the blow off phase all the way down to $20 brick everywhere including auctions and classifieds, which will take another three months. Once this happens, those flipping and hoarding will see the whole blow off and will ease up on demand. I predict July or August we will see .22lr ammo on the shelves at Wal-mart any day of the week at around $20 a brick."

    The sold items on Gunbroker show proof! This is last 24 hrs of Federal 525 bricks.

    federal5-17-2013_zps65af1bcf.jpg

    The flippers are finding it is no longer worth their while so their demand will start to let up.
    If I was only smart enough to predict the stock market! I am just a lowly sheep herder's boy.