6 Dead, Dying, and Soon-To-Be-Obsolete Handgun Cartridges

[03A3Sporter]

Those who are passionate about the 41 mag are extremely passionate which is what seems to keep it from going into total obscurity. I have a close friend who buys every gun in 41 magnum which happens to cross his path. at least a dozen revolvers and 2 or 3 levers that I know of at this point, He has said more than once if you run X in 41 magnum let me know.

My good pal Mark in New Mexico brought this article to my attention. Yes, these are all cartridges in declining popularity. Are they in danger of extinction? Not so long as guns that take them still exist. And there are very many still around in all of these chamberings.

.45 GAP is least loved on that list. Therefore probably most likely to disappear into obscurity first. Repeat, but so long as there are guns in .45 GAP around...

.41 Mag has been on the dead or dying list for decades already. Funny thing, new guns are still made in .41 Mag and in my own experience it has a very strong following. Maybe not hugely numerous but you can quickly sell just about anything in .41 Mag. It goes fast.

It is utterly ridiculous to predict the demise of .40 S&W. There are just way too many guns in this caliber floating around.

One thing about out-of-favor cartridges during a supply famine. The major manufacturers tend to focus on what they can move the most off. It's a matter of manufacturing economy. Because even the biggest companies aren't set up to make everything in their catalog simultaneously. They make products in rotation in normal times. When everyone in America is scouring the countryside for certain popular cartridges, they are gonna focus on making those until demand eases. They don't have any reason to change tooling over for slower sellers. Which means that you won't find the slower-movers on the shelf until the famine has abated.

Some manufacturers plan ahead. Again, I'm speaking of normal times. When they set up to run a particular product, they make more than they can package and ship, then place this surplus in storage. As a reservoir to make up for bumps and bubbles in demand and production cycle.

Hate the Gunbroker sellers, but right now they are acting as a civilian reserve that supplies ammunition, including hard-to-get stuff that hasn't seen the light of day for years. In one of the previous famines, I made mental fun of people who were filling their basements with ammo. I said, "One day, they are gonna wake up and wonder what they are gonna do with all that ammo." Well, now we know.

 

[03A3Sporter]

.40 is more flinchy than 9mm
Don't ask me why. I've seen it. Especially with people who don't enjoy shooting.

40 has what I like to call 'snappy recoil" not really bad in my opinion but snappier.

The one place I see 40 thriving is IPSC cause 40 gives you major power and more bullets than 45 in a similar frame. I do not see it thriving in any other place though.

 

[The Heretic]

40 has what I like to call 'snappy recoil" not really bad in my opinion but snappier.

The one place I see 40 thriving is IPSC cause 40 gives you major power and more bullets than 45 in a similar frame. I do not see it thriving in any other place though.

Must be a lot of ISPC going on then to have .40 be the second most popular handgun caliber ammo being sold currently.

 

[03A3Sporter]

Must be a lot of ISPC going on then to have .40 be the second most popular handgun caliber ammo being sold currently.

so many that almost everyone I know doesn't own one .

 

[The Heretic]

Data Study: Ammo Sales Continue to Soar in Wake of Coronavirus Panic

As COVID-19 spreads across America, Ammo.com releases a data study about the significant increase in sales as people prepare for the coronavirus pandemic.

ammo.com

 

[03A3Sporter]

Data Study: Ammo Sales Continue to Soar in Wake of Coronavirus Panic

As COVID-19 spreads across America, Ammo.com releases a data study about the significant increase in sales as people prepare for the coronavirus pandemic.

ammo.com

Interesting numbers... I decided to do some math for fun on a early Saturday morning.

So I calculated the mean percentage increase of sales % for both 40 S&W and 45 ACP based on the figures you linked to

40 S&W 642.84 %

45 ACP 730.75 %

or a 12.8% difference


Seems to me 45 ACP is a better seller and did it in 2 fewer states to boot.

 

[gmerkt]

Not shocked you haven't heard of 41 Long Colt , doesn't mean it wasn't very popular in it's day ,

The .41 Long Colt was a black powder cartridge that had ballistics similar to the 38 Special. It had a groove diameter of .406, the same diameter as the outside of the case, and used a heeled bullet, like the .22 Long Rifle. It was fairly popular in both single- and double-action revolvers.

The heeled bullet made it less popular, as the lubrication groove was exposed on the loaded cartridge. The popularity of the 38 Special lead to its downfall.

I'm old enough to remember the .41 Long Colt but I was never tempted to buy one. I used to see Colt Army Special and Official Police revolvers in .41 LC, languishing on tables at gun shows. It's truly an antique cartridge now. I think the last ammo from a major manufacturer was Winchester made in the 1970's, white box. While popular at one time with police, .41 LC wasn't destined to stay around long for recreational shooters. For one thing, the final version of .41 LC (smokeless powder) used a hollow based bullet that was undersized to the bore. The idea was the powder gases would expand the base but that still left the issue of problematic accuracy. This same design is maybe not a nightmare for reloaders but very challenging.

So .41 Long Colt is maybe a textbook example of why a cartridge might become completely obsolescent. Guns made in the cartridge long out of production, obsolete design not compatible with reloading, no modern supply of ammo at reasonable cost, questionable usefulness for most recreational shooters. Which doesn't completely describe conditions extant for any of the six cartridges central to this thread.

I love the 357 SIG but I have realised it really is not that much better than the 9mm Luger in regular loads.

The .357 Sig is another one that I'd put on that list, probably in lieu of one of the other six already on it. I'm not big on bottlenecked pistol cartridges. Not as a hobby shooter, anyway. I've owned several Mauser military pistols and a couple of Tokes, with bottleneck designs. They were okay so long as oodles of cheap milsurp ammo were available. More powerful than 9mm Luger, the Sig has enough disadvantages that I don't favor it.

 

[JuglansRegia]

I think a chambering is on the decline when gun makers quite making new guns for it. There is a lot of those.

 

[v0lcom13sn0w]

41 mag components are usually readily accessible during tough times. a friend, who got me into reloading, was BIG on 41 mag.

 

[RedRover]

Not going to read the thread as I'm sure it has or will devolve into another cartridge war.

Pistol cartridges go like this:

Pick one that is controlled the best, can be consistently put on target, and that has the best ballistics.

Cartridges, as a companion to the tools that fire them, serve a purpose. If I'm wanting only a pistol while in the woods, I'm going .357 mag(for the stopping power) or .44 mag(if in brown bear territory).

As for self defense against the bi-pedal..

As long as wimpy limp-wristed people exist that can't handle the recoil of god's caliber, there will always be a need for lesser cartridges.

ENTER 10mm fanboys.

 

[The Heretic]

Interesting numbers... I decided to do some math for fun on a early Saturday morning.

So I calculated the mean percentage increase of sales % for both 40 S&W and 45 ACP based on the figures you linked to

40 S&W 642.84 %

45 ACP 730.75 %

or a 12.8% difference


Seems to me 45 ACP is a better seller and did it in 2 fewer states to boot.

That is an increase in sales, not the percentage of sales across the different calibers. The point was that .40 is among the top three handgun calibers.

I can't find the table that I keep referring to, but I think it was NSSF that had a table showing the most popular ammo calibers being sold in the last year. Of course 9x19 was the most popular, then .40, then .45 ACP which was about half the percentage of .40 S&W. I wish I could find it again. I think it was mentioned in a thread here, but search sucks on this forum.

 

[03A3Sporter]

That is an increase in sales, not the percentage of sales across the different calibers. The point was that .40 is among the top three handgun calibers.

I can't find the table that I keep referring to, but I think it was NSSF that had a table showing the most popular ammo calibers being sold in the last year. Of course 9x19 was the most popular, then .40, then .45 ACP which was about half the percentage of .40 S&W. I wish I could find it again. I think it was mentioned in a thread here, but search sucks on this forum.

Actually reading is essential in this case. I said precisely I calculated the mean percentage increase of sales for both. The 45 ACP is outselling it based on those figures. which also aligns with the percentage of increased sales topic that article is referencing. I didn't argue that its not in the top selling cartridges , having said that I still do not know any one actually shooting it save for some USPSA and IPSC shooters , everyone these days seems to tote a 9x19 .

Mean percentages are an indicator of a central trend statistically speaking . Interestingly enough I did some looking and most of the articles I have found this morning support that in the top selling handgun cartridges are 9mm is first followed by 45 ACP , 40 S&W third , 38 special fourth , 380 ACP is last.

Math does seem to be good for figuring things out.

 

[Dinglenutz]

I am re-embracing the 40 SW, now that I have a 10mm Auto but I will not get carried away by buying 40 SW guns again. I never hated the round.

I have a Glock 20 and a Glock 32, and 40 dropins for both as well as a 357 drop in barrel for the 20. With the amount of 357 Sig brass I have on hand I'll not run out in the foreseeable.

 

[The Heretic]

Actually reading is essential in this case. I said precisely I calculated the mean percentage increase of sales for both. The 45 ACP is outselling it based on those figures. which also aligns with the percentage of increased sales topic that article is referencing. I didn't argue that its not in the top selling cartridges , having said that I still do not know any one actually shooting it save for some USPSA and IPSC shooters , everyone these days seems to tote a 9x19 .

Mean percentages are an indicator of a central trend statistically speaking . Interestingly enough I did some looking and most of the articles I have found this morning support that in the top selling handgun cartridges are 9mm is first followed by 45 ACP , 40 S&W third , 38 special fourth , 380 ACP is last.

Math does seem to be good for figuring things out.

Ok - I probably do need to go back and read the article/etc. again to make sure, but explain to me how you can get percentage of sales from percentage of increase in sales?

If .45 ACP sales increased increased from 10 rounds to 100, that would be an increase of 10X or 1000%.

If .40 S&W sales increased from 10,000 rounds to 100,000 rounds that too would be an increase of 10X or 1000%.

But .40 S&W sales would be 1000X the sales of .45 ACP.

 

[03A3Sporter]

I am not sure you understand how statistics work having said that let me point out to you that your article citation has no figures other than percentages .

Hence my statement I went out and found several articles indicating that 9mm is the best selling HANDGUN cartridge followed by 45ACP in numbers sold .

Furthermore as supporting evidence Ammunition To Go a while back had published that 40 S&W market share had dropped 38% and that it's sales were in decline compared to the top selling pistol cartridges.

I personally do not care what you like to shoot but numbers don't usually lie of their own accord. It usually requires help from a human.

Ok - I probably do need to go back and read the article/etc. again to make sure, but explain to me how you can get percentage of sales from percentage of increase in sales?

If .45 ACP sales increased increased from 10 rounds to 100, that would be an increase of 10X or 1000%.

If .40 S&W sales increased from 10,000 rounds to 100,000 rounds that too would be an increase of 10X or 1000%.

But .40 S&W sales would be 1000X the sales of .45 ACP.

 

[The Heretic]

I am not sure you understand how statistics work having said that let me point out to you that your article citation has no figures other than percentages .

Hence my statement I went out and found several articles indicating that 9mm is the best selling HANDGUN cartridge followed by 45ACP in numbers sold .

Furthermore as supporting evidence Ammunition To Go a while back had published that 40 S&W market share had dropped 38% and that it's sales were in decline compared to the top selling pistol cartridges.

I personally do not care what you like to shoot but numbers don't usually lie of their own accord. It usually requires help from a human.

I understand that. My point was that the numbers were percentages of increases.

But if you look at the table heading, it states that:

Most Popular Caliber by Sales Volume	2nd	3rd

Then if you look at the individual states, for the 3rd most popular, you will see that six states list the .40 S&W as 3rd most popular, and four states list .45 ACP. That indicates to me that .40 S&W is still plenty popular, only lagging behind 9x19 (if you remove .223 which is a rifle caliber). I.E., being second only to 9mm does not indicate to me that it is an obsolete or "dead" caliber.

Beyond that, as I said, I saw a table from NSSF not too long ago that asserted that .40 was the second most popular ammo being sold behind 9x19, with .45 ACP far behind .40 S&W. I really need to find that again - I search for it every day - wish I could find it. As I recall they did a survey of the ammo manufacturers.

 

[CLT65]

I know it doesn't mean a lot overall, but my son and I pick up a lot of brass at the local range. Of course #1 in quantity by far is 9mm. .40 S&W is easily #2. .45 acp is #3, followed bu .380 acp.

 

[03A3Sporter]

anecdotal evidence is anecdotal

 

[oremike]

I'll mostly agree with the 45 GAP, I don't get anyone asking for it. I do get a few asking for the 32 and 25 acps but I don't make those. The 32 H&R Mag is popular with Cowboy Action shooters. The 41 Mag is interesting in that when I started making this caliber all the closet 41 shooters came out of the woodwork and it has quite a following now that they can get ammo for it. As far as 40 S&W, there sure are a lot of us shooting it. I don't see it going by the wayside any time soon.

 

[The Heretic]

Found it!

It was NAAGA not NSSF:

Ammo.com Reports A Recent Spike in Ammunition Sales That Indicates Rise in African American Gun Ownership

/PRNewswire/ -- Growing concerns over personal safety in the African American community are leading many to take action. Online ammunition retailer Ammo.com,...

www.prnewswire.com

Quoting:

The most popular calibers purchased by NAAGA members during this time frame were:

1. 9mm ammo - 37% of all sales.
2. 223 ammo - 27%.
3. 40 Cal (S&W) ammo - 14%.
4. 5.56x45 ammo - 6%.
5. 45 ACP ammo - 4%.