Q: For real estate pros (agents, appraisers, etc.) re. Trulia/Zillow/etc.

[The Heretic]

I keep getting spammed by Zillow, and in the past Redfin and Trulia used to give estimates without signing in/up, but now don't seem to.

My plan is to sell when I retire (3 to 6 years) and move further out. I like to keep track of the value of my property so I can make a wild guess as to what I can buy with my equity when I do sell.

I am guessing that my value is a bit more than what the county says it is for taxes, but less than the inflated estimate Zillow gives.

What is your opinion regarding such estimates by these sources?

I have seen the website estimates vary wildly.

I know an appraiser would probably be more accurate, coming out and actually looking at the property (do they actually do that?), but I have observed that appraisals for sales generally trend to be whatever the buyer is offering (with outliers for poor offers or sellers who think their property is worth way more than it is).

I think the online estimates I have gotten on my property are at least 50 to $75K too high, and tax appraisal maybe $25K too low. Either way, the property has appreciated much more than I thought it would, while at the same time, I know, because of the location (VERY rural, barely within commuting distance of PDX), that I would need to have the right buyer to get that value, most people not wanting this location.

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[IronMonster]

I am not a pro, but currently have a house in Seattle that I am selling (been on the market two weeks, have two signed offers, a primary and a backup)

Zillow had the value of my place at $405k. We listed it for $449k and have two offers, one at full price, the other at $440k but with a $100k down and they pay all closing costs (actually the better offer)

We have not got to the appraisal yet but I am currious what they say. In the real world a thing is worth what someone will pay, that is not how real estate appraisals work ;-)

 

[Nick Burkhardt]

Zillow is helpful in geolocating recent sales and listings, however their estimates are a joke.
Zillow Sued By Homeowner Because Its Estimate Is Lower Than The Seller Wants To Sell The House For

 

[The Heretic]

I bought for 353K 4.5 years ago. Tax appraisal has it at $420K now. Zillow has it at $528K, another site has it at $508K, yet another at $549K.

A much nicer house/property down the road sold for about $500K after being on the market for months. A house just across the road, which is much nicer, is appraised at a little over $520K but the property isn't as nice (clear cut, half the acreage).

The thing is that I am on a mountain (of sorts), it is 26+ miles into PDX, an hour commute, at least half an hour into other cities with jobs. So only certain buyers would want to live here - people who want some seclusion and don't mind living rural without conveniences to have that.

I think once you get above a certain amount, especially if the buyers need to go for a jumbo loan, the number of buyers who will consider the property or qualify for it, goes down.

 

[IronMonster]

I will also say that Zillows estimate of my house have been stable for months around that $400k number. The day after my house was listed for $449 the "Zestimate" jumped to $451

Very curious

 

[The Heretic]

I will also say that Zillows estimate of my house have been stable for months around that $400k number. The day after my house was listed for $449 the "Zestimate" jumped to $451

Very curious

Maybe I should list mine for $1M?

A self-fulfilling prophecy?

 

[Mistman]

I think the real estate listing sites (Zillow et al.) just go off comparables and listings in the area. They get relatively close but each sale is unique to some degree, especially rural property. The swings are much more pronounced rurally, you can have a double wide on 50 acres of timber that may be worth more than the nice 4/3 on 2 acres down the road or vice versa. In my area due to gas exploration and drilling having mineral rights is a big plus which may affect the value compared to someone who doesn't have them. Also rural properties don't follow any covenants, some people never get rid of anything and don't keep their places up to the standards of suburban neighborhoods. They may have desirable property but have some negatives that will reduce the value. I live uber rural, the real estate market reacts slower, the 10% a year equity gain in 'town' may be nothing or just a bump out here. There do tend to be gems but as Heretic mentioned you have to have a buyer who appreciates them and is looking for something in particular. A lot of people just want a piece of property in the country, if you go too far with it you'll lose a lot of potential buyers. All those niceties like paved driveways, shops that match the house, painted fences, cute outbuildings and lots of ornamental landscaping won't have the ROI the further out you go. You can find awesome deals on places people have poured their lifetime into selling for not a ton over some more conventional property down the road. Things like nice pump houses with filtration systems, whole house generators, solid fencing and outbuildings, well maintained driveways and roads and firewood on the property add more value and ROI.

In not too many more years (relatively ) than Heretic I may be doing something similar. I've been on my place over 20 years so far and built a house a few years ago that had an affect on the local market and still does. It's one of those places that more was put into than we can probably ever hope to get out of. We enjoy the heck out of it but it's slated for some poor ROI at this point. We still have 10-15 years here though and things change all the time so not worried.

 

[The Heretic]

I am on a private road, so there is that. Also, of the 8 houses on the road, 6 (or 7?) are stick built and five are pretty nice houses. One, with 80 acres, recently sold for $1.4M and it is probably worth more if it was closer in - a retired couple bought it.

My house is a nice triple wide, but still a manufactured home. Most of the property value is in the land and most of that value is because it is timbered.

We did just repave the road and I paved all of my driveway - my share of the road and the cost of the driveway totaled about $25K. I had the forest near the house thinned and a lot of brush removed. I also keep much of the brush under control and removed some brush myself. I intend to do some more landscaping this summer with a dozer.

I think it is worth about $450K now (if I did some more cleanup) with the way the market is, if I were patient and found the right buyer - possibly one who would come in and build a really nice house while living in the current home.

I also think that I could sell off some acreage to a neighbor and the value would still be about the same. Most people don't really care if they buy 10 acres or 20 at this price. I have the most acreage (17 acres) of the plots here except for the 80 acre plot.

I need to have an appraisal anyway - my neighbor has an easement on my acreage, purchased back when the rules did not allow outright purchase of the acreage. Now the rules have changed and he wants to adjust the plot lines to include his easement (which is his right to do), but my mortgage holder says we need to have an appraisal first (two actually, before and after), so I need to cleanup and get this done (he will pay for it) so I can have the best value in the appraisal to show later when I want to sell.

 

[clearconscience]

I have a friend that is a high grossing agent in Oregon and he told me zillow was a good place to get an estimate. It will take into account the current market.
There's a lot of factors that could still influence the overall cost, but it will give you a good idea

 

[Gaucho Gringo]

A lot of the problem is what can be considered as a bedroom or some other space. It doesn't help that the rules have been a moving target over the years. Also people have become so stupid today I cannot believe it. An estimate in real estate terms is only one persons opinion of what something is worth, not an absolute guarantee that you can get that much in a market situation. You can't complain when you get less than what an estimate as it is the market that sets the price according to market economist. It is crying over split milk IMO. some people get over estimates and some get under. When I sold my house I got $12,000. over asking on a house that I thought was worth $120-150,000 less than what it sold for. I wouldn''t have paid what I sold my house for but I thank god for idiots.

 

[etrain16]

I'm curious about that too. My wife regularly checks our home on sites like Zillow to see what they're listing us for. I have often felt their estimate is high, especially when compared to similar homes selling in our area. I think it's always best to consult an actual realtor before trying to set a price - they'll be more in tune with the market and the potential buyers for a home than a website will. That said, I don't mind seeing what the website has to say in comparison with the value estimate provided by the county, just as a general point of reference.

 

[The Heretic]

In my limited experience, real estate agents vary widely in expertise. When I sell, if he is still around, I will go with the guy who represented the people I bought this place from, not who represented me. Their agent helped me more than mine did and has a very good reputation in this area and in rural properties.

 

[Oregonhunter5]

I hope you get millions!
I hate selling homes!

 

[The Heretic]

I am toying with the idea of buying the other property first, while I am still working, then just before I sell this place, moving all my stuff into a container and then selling this property. I don't think I will like strangers tromping through my house looking at all my stuff.

 

[mjbskwim]

I will also say that Zillows estimate of my house have been stable for months around that $400k number. The day after my house was listed for $449 the "Zestimate" jumped to $451

Very curious

I heard they were having bidding wars on some houses over there. Maybe the estimate went up on speculation?
It just astounds me what the prices are going to in seattle

 

[Hawaiian]

My wife is a realtor. Comparable sales is a good weather vein, however there are high points and low points in every property that need to be figured in. In Portland Metro, there are bidding wars going on with houses selling for over asking price. Also cash buyers are squeezing out those who need to qualify for a loan. Once you move further away from Portland metro, it is not as crazy.

 

[Oregonhunter5]

My wife is a realtor. Comparable sales is a good weather vein, however there are high points and low points in every property that need to be figured in. In Portland Metro, there are bidding wars going on with houses selling for over asking price. Also cash buyers are squeezing out those who need to qualify for a loan. Once you move further away from Portland metro, it is not as crazy.

Your last sentence has several meanings in that city!!! Lol!

 

[The Heretic]

I am just hoping we don't have another bubble burst before I sell.

Regardless, I am pretty sure I will get out at least what I have put into the property, hopefully including interest and taxes. If that happens, then I will have lived here for free, not including the labor, and I should have enough to buy land and maybe enough to build on that land, the end goal being to have a place to store my stuff, have a roof over my head and have a minimal or no mortgage after I retire - at which point I should be doing okay on SSI benefits.

 

[Camelfilter]

I am toying with the idea of buying the other property first, while I am still working, then just before I sell this place, moving all my stuff into a container and then selling this property. I don't think I will like strangers tromping through my house looking at all my stuff.

Containers are a super idea. Moved almost all of our stuff out here in one of those smaller ones (?16'?). Had it dropped on site, hired folks to load it up (hired the wrong guys the first time...), so hired some family of friends to fix it. Convenient in that we could take more time wrapping up our fragile stuff correctly over about a month.

If you have the land, and can afford to, I'd say just buy one when your ready for moving. Once your settled in at the new place, its reasonably secure storage.

There are a few ways to reduce the risk of theft. On the one they dropped for our move out here, I wrapped a hardened chain around the pin that they use to hook it to the winch cable. Put a hardened lock on that (stuff I allready had in my shop). Would not be able to get it onto a flatbed without a full size fork lift, or cutting the chain, which would take time and a portable cutting wheel.

 

[Gaucho Gringo]

You had better hurry. Before during the last bubble in 2007 my wife wanted to sell, but I did not. A couple of months later it burst. It was the third or fourth one that has happened in my lifetime that I can remember(66years). A year and 1\2 ago she wanted to sell again. In my self righteous smugness I put out a number that I thought was ridiculous and said if you can get over that then I will sell and move. Needless to say 3 weeks later with the house listed for only one day I was signing the papers on an offer $112,000 over my amount. It was a very humbling experience and I wonder how my wife has put up with me for over 34 years now. We now have a better house overall(never is there a perfect house) in Vancouver that we paid cash for, bought all new appliances, draperies and for the first time in our marriage new furniture. Also paid for the cost of the move and $10,000 gifts to our 2 children. All from a house that I didn't want to look at originally but my wife(a pattern is showing up here) convinced me to look at in 1986.

Don't know why the below is showing up. Tried to delete it.