Powder Shortage Of 2024. Real or Hype?

[arakboss]

At this point the shortage seems like hype. Seems to be lots of powders in stock online. What have you seen with local stock?

The Gunpowder Shortage of 2024 - An Update

The latest update on the very real gunpowder shortage.

blog.galleryofguns.com

Read More

 

[arakboss]

I won't argue that prices suck but that is the case with lots of consumable items. Not sure what most people consider a shortage but after about 30 mins of searching I have found quite a few smokeless powder products showing as available at various online retailers:

https://www.powdervalley.com/product-category/reloading-supplies/powder/smokeless-powder/filters/_stock_status/1/

Shop Gun Powder for Reloading - Buy Smokeless Powder Today! | MidwayUSA

Smokeless powder for Reloading. Shop reloading powders for ammunition reloading at great prices. Shop powder for reloading at MidwayUSA, the online Reloading Supply Store.

www.midwayusa.com

Smokeless Powder - Powders & Primers - Graf & Sons

www.grafs.com

Smokeless Powder for Sale | Reloading Powders | Midsouth Shooters

Midsouth offers a variety reloading powders in container sizes from 1 pound to 8 pounds. Shop smokeless powder for sale by quantity, type, or brand here.

www.midsouthshooterssupply.com

Powder Archives | Bruno Shooters Supply

www.brunoshooters.com

RELOADING SUPPLIES - SMOKELESS POWDER - Page 1 - Shydas Outdoor Center

shydasoutdoorcenter.com

Recob's Target Shop | Product categories POWDER

recobstargetshop.com

Shop Rifle & Shotgun Reloading Supplies | Dies | Bullets | Hulls | Wads | Powder - Precision Reloading

Shop online for shotshell and metallic reloading supplies, shooting supplies, metallic presses, rifle reloading components, shotshell reloading components, shooting accessories, rifle reloading brass and Bullets.

www.precisionreloading.com

Powder - Reloading

www.gricegunshop.com

Reloading Powder: Pistol Powder, Rifle Powder, & Shotshell Powder

Browse 160+ Reloading Powder Products including Pistol Powder, Rifle Powder, & Shotshell Powder from premium brands including Alliant Powder, Hodgdon Powder, Winchester, and more!

www.brownells.com

https://www.cabelas.com/l/primers-powder#f-subcategory=Reloading%20Powder&nf-maxavailquantity=10..9999999

Reloading - Powder - Miwall

miwallcorp.com

 

[RVTECH]

Not sure what most people consider a shortage

You been reloading long?

If a store that sells 'sporting goods' IE guns, ammo and reloading supplies and is decidedly short (or has no) components then this is a good indication of a shortage.

Have you placed any orders with that list of online suppliers you posted?

Personally I would NOT use online suppliers as a 'litmus test' for availability of supplies and components due to how inconsistent some of them seem to be.

 

[Koda]

My take is whats in stock is not the same as raw material supply. The question now is when will the store inventory diminish below raw material supplies?

 

[arakboss]

My take is whats in stock is not the same as raw material supply. The question now is when will the store inventory diminish below raw material supplies?

My suggestion for those who think there really is a shortage is to order now. Prices are already high but if manufactures are having trouble sourcing raw ingredients, prices will only go higher. I am pretty well stocked myself but won't hesitate to buy more in the $20 to $25 a pound range.

 

[Koda]

My suggestion for those who think there really is a shortage is to order now.

I have been, my powders are in the $50/lb range and mostly available.. I do think there will be a shortage it just hasn't arrived as quickly as they say. But I also don't think the previous shortage ever really ended as there have been popular powders Ive wanted to try that have not been in stock for 3 years now and still arent. If this new shortage arrives this year it will be the first time Ive seen overlapping shortages. Not a good sign of the times.

 

[gmerkt]

Depends on the powder. Stick powders, the shortage is real. Ball powders, mostly still available.

Stick powders are made in Canada, Australia and Europe. The European production has mostly been diverted to purposes of war. Ball powders, lots of that is still made in the US.

Retail, eyes-on availability in stores of stick powders is low. And expensive when available. Most seasoned reloaders will likely withdraw from the market for the time being. Most of them have enough to get by for a while. After all, they've been panic buying for several years.

Yes, inventory of stick powders is starting to show up through online venues again BUT: This may be because prices in the $60 to $75 per pound price have finally sunk in, plus hazmat and shipping, they've become very expensive. There may be some buyer resistance at last. This contributes to why local sources rarely have any on shelves. Because local buyers desperate enough to pay $60-$75 can at least avoid the hazmat and shipping charges.

 

[arakboss]

I think one man's shortage is another man's poor selection. Powder is like cereal. Some people have their favorites or what they are used to. Some people adapt to whatever is cheapest or available. Some are really picky and only want certain batch numbers or years manufactured.

I can see how more selective folks would perceive that a shortage is occurring if their favorite product isn't available.

If there really is a powder shortage, it will likely spread to the ammo markets.

One positive of a severe powder shortage might be some additional relief in primer availability. If a guy can't get powder to load up a 1000 rounds of 300 win mag, he probably won't be chasing after more cases of LRM primers.

 

[arakboss]

Another suggestion for those who really believe there is a powder shortage is to consider altering your shooting and loading habits. You should be able to get a similar amount of rounds down range if you switch to lower power loads, different cartridges, heavier bullets, etc.

 

[Alexx1401]

Bottom line? Anyone who has been rolling for any time "should" by now know better than to be caught. I have lost track of the "shortages" I have seen. One constant is another one will come and a LOT of people who have seen them before will be caught yet again and are they pissed off.

 

[arakboss]

Another thought on the matter of haz mat and shipping fees. Many of the places I listed in post #2 offer occasional discounts on either shipping or haz mat. If you order close to weight limit of product shipping and haz mat fees will be much less significant. If you can't afford to order a sizable amount, try to find some other buyer to split the order with you. I have done this with a member here and it worked out fine. Cabelas will ship product to store so you don't have to pay fees. American reloading prices include shipping/haz mat.

 

[arakboss]

Pat's reloading has some slow 50BMG type powders for around $12 a pound before shipping. WC 860 and WC 872 appear to be in stock.






This powder can be used in many different rifle cartridges (some may work better with duplexing).



Example discussions.

WC860 in 308

Win primer 44 grains WC860 311644 190 gr quenched ww + 5% tin Av 1602 ES 38 SD 14 10 shots 50 yards 7/8"....One ragged hole. This is out of my Wally world Stevens 200 308. A good day at the range.

castboolits.gunloads.com

860 / 872 in 30-06?

Who has results with 860 or 872 from Bartlett in the 30-06? I'm using the 180 RCBS FNGC. I've had fair results with 7383, under 2 inches at 100 yds scoped from the bench. This convinced me that the surplus powder and cast combination is worth pursuing. A local group buy appears to be headed...

castboolits.gunloads.com

 

[Idaho44]

Artificial or manufactured shortages is the business tactic that has worked for many decades (e.g milk shortage back in the '70's). It does make money created by higher profits (prices to consumers) for the corps and their minions! Now we have flying cows that have bird flu and guess what beef prices will do! Drink more milk!

 

[arakboss]

Artificial or manufactured shortages is the business tactic that has worked for many decades (e.g milk shortage back in the '70's). It does make money created by higher profits (prices to consumers) for the corps and their minions! Now we have flying cows that have bird flu and guess what beef prices will do! Drink more milk!

One youtuber blamed the "shortage" on Ukraine and Covid test kits. That's pretty hilarious when you can blame our reloading woes on covid tests.

 

[gmerkt]

Many of the places I listed in post #2 offer occasional discounts on either shipping or haz mat. If you order close to weight limit of product shipping and haz mat fees will be much less significant. If you can't afford to order a sizable amount, try to find some other buyer to split the order with you. I have done this with a member here and it worked out fine. Cabelas will ship product to store so you don't have to pay fees. American reloading prices include shipping/haz mat.

Good thoughts. It might work out part of the time. The last time I was contemplating a Powder Valley order was just before the latest price increases. Free shipping was offered. But they didn't have enough of anything that I wanted to constitute an order. So the "free shipping" can attract enough buyers to wipe out inventory. At least at that time. Maybe not now that $60 to $75 is the order of the day.

One positive of a severe powder shortage might be some additional relief in primer availability. If a guy can't get powder to load up a 1000 rounds of 300 win mag, he probably won't be chasing after more cases of LRM primers.

I had this thought as well. A kind of self-governing limitation.

1,000 rounds of Win Mag, whoo-eee. Four rounds and I was done. Took all the fun out of shooting. This is real, the recoil backed the black foretip out of the nose of the stock.

 

[Saladfarmer]

It more has to do with where the Nitrocellulose is coming from. China is the biggest manufacturer of said precursor, and Russia has been buying it up. India and Thailand also produce large quantities of Nitrocellulose. We have the means to make it in the US but, we are a net importer when it comes to Nitrocellulose. A lot of what we see on the shelves may not last much longer, but, if you've been expecting this, then you were already prepared somewhat. This wasn't a secret, it came out back at the end of last year, just no body cared or listened. Some folks will fill the void, it's not that hard to make, just need to make the facility and jump through all the hoops.
It's an interesting predicament, you can do soft gun control limiting ammo components, but you want to have enough for the military and LE. So I think this is more just a ploy to further push the overton window and get gun nuts like us used to the idea components are scarce, then when they pull the rug out we won't "notice" because it's so "normal"... I'm not buying it, not that it's not real, but it's all by design.

 

[R3nd3r]

My take is whats in stock is not the same as raw material supply. The question now is when will the store inventory diminish below raw material supplies?

My thoughts exactly

 

[arakboss]

It more has to do with where the Nitrocellulose is coming from. China is the biggest manufacturer of said precursor, and Russia has been buying it up. India and Thailand also produce large quantities of Nitrocellulose. We have the means to make it in the US but, we are a net importer when it comes to Nitrocellulose. A lot of what we see on the shelves may not last much longer, but, if you've been expecting this, then you were already prepared somewhat. This wasn't a secret, it came out back at the end of last year, just no body cared or listened. Some folks will fill the void, it's not that hard to make, just need to make the facility and jump through all the hoops.
It's an interesting predicament, you can do soft gun control limiting ammo components, but you want to have enough for the military and LE. So I think this is more just a ploy to further push the overton window and get gun nuts like us used to the idea components are scarce, then when they pull the rug out we won't "notice" because it's so "normal"... I'm not buying it, not that it's not real, but it's all by design.

"A lot of what we see on the shelves may not last much longer, but, if you've been expecting this, then you were already prepared somewhat."


If you are one that is not somewhat prepared, buy, buy, buy. We are unlikely to see much deflation in powder prices because of consolidation. If the shortage proponents are right, the prices could move higher. Reloading is not a poor man's game anymore. Shooting won't be either.

There are likely many thousands of pounds of old powder out there, that will hopefully be liberated as reloaders retire out of the hobby or die off. That may provide relief to determined buyers.

 

[arakboss]

Another thought on the matter of haz mat and shipping fees. Many of the places I listed in post #2 offer occasional discounts on either shipping or haz mat. If you order close to weight limit of product shipping and haz mat fees will be much less significant. If you can't afford to order a sizable amount, try to find some other buyer to split the order with you. I have done this with a member here and it worked out fine. Cabelas will ship product to store so you don't have to pay fees. American reloading prices include shipping/haz mat.

I did a few calculations to see how shipping and hazmat might effect economy of 300 win mag loads.

300 Winn Mag pull down powder. 8 LBS

Surplus powder from combat-disabled veterans is available for purchase. For the powder, which comes in 8LB jars, there will be a $37.50 Haz-mat fee plus shipping.

www.cdvs.us

8lbs of this powder with shipping and hazmat is $31.12 a lb. Powder cost per reloaded rnd is $.36

16lbs of this powder is $28.25 per lb with shipping and hazmat. Powder cost per round is $.33

24lbs of this powder is $27.33 per pound with shipping and hazmat. Powder cost per round is $.32

I assumed an 80gr load for 300 win mag. If you were loading a smaller cartridge like a 243 the cost difference would be even lower per round. It might be worth ordering two jugs over one jug to save $.03 a round but probably not worth ordering three jugs over two jugs.


I am leaning towards ordering one jug.

 

[arakboss]

I am thankful for fussy reloaders who won't buy surplus powder, unbranded powder, pull down powder, old powder, opened containers of powder, mixed batch # containers of powder, etc. That should give us cheap SOBs a chance at decently priced powder in the future.