Is 40 caliber being faded out?

[CLT65]

It is interesting to see how popular the 10mm has become. What seems odd to me is how weak a lot of factory ammo is loaded, much of it no more powerful that the much-derided "40 short and weak".

 

[The Heretic]

It is interesting to see how popular the 10mm has become. What seems odd to me is how weak a lot of factory ammo is loaded, much of it no more powerful that the much-derided "40 short and weak".

There is that, and the going theory is that some ammo meant for LEO use was downloaded to .40 power levels in order to allow LEOs to shoot it as well as .40 can be shot (and still, some pundits/youtubers say .40 is too much!).

OTOH, you can now get full power + ammo for 10mm since the main use people seem to be buying 10mm now is for hunting or bear defense. Meh - if you look at 10mm, the power levels for most ammo seem to be about the same as +p or +P+ 45 ACP ammo, certainly no more than .45 Super. The main advantage of 10mm over .45 ACP seems to me to be sectional density.

Then there are some people who want to live a little dangerously and reload .40 S&W to 10mm ballistics. I have no inclination to do that as I have at least one gun (maybe two or more - depending on how much I shoot Super in them) that is fine with .45 Super and has 13+ rd mags.

 

[coop44]

Yeah... so 45acp. Why use an old antique round?

Can say the same about the 9mm.
As for the "as good as" 9mm fans, well, you can't fix genetics.

 

[solv3nt]

Can say the same about the 9mm.
As for the "as good as" 9mm fans, well, you can't fix genetics.

9mm is older than 45acp...

 

[Ducati_Meister]

I remember those Norma made 10mm auto loads that I think were known to be quite powerful compared to today's 10mm loads. When I worked at a gunshop, most of the .40s I sold were to LE guys upgrading their duty guns or getting off duty CC guns like a G27 or similar.

 

[belshawelk]

It's alive and well.

 

[The Heretic]

It's alive and well.

In the sense that most any 9x19 ammo type can be had in .40 S&W

OTOH - some guns are no longer available in .40 S&W some probably never will be (e.g., SIG said they were going to make the 365 in .40, and then went silent and never did). This is mostly because LE orgs decided to go back to 9x19, so there is not as much demand, so manufacturers (e.g., SIG) stopped making some guns in .40 S&W. S&W makes 3 times as many models in 9x19 as they do in .40 S&W.

 

[Koda]

The 40 is dying and will go the way of the 38super. Guns are slowly being discontinued but ammo while less popular will still be available due to demand from the remaining 40 owners but once those guns are passed on ammo will be as common as the 38 super. There will always be those who believe more power = more stopping power but everythings a trade off and at the end of the day any small increase in power isnt making a practical difference to justify the loss in capacity. My guess is the 9mm will remain most popular until laser beams are invented.

 

[dangerranger60]

I pick up and process a lot of range brass. In order of popularity, 9mm, 40, and 45. I pickup almost 2 to 1 40 cal over 45 acp.
I can sell 9mm and 45 as fast as I process it. 40 cal takes a little longer to sell. So someone is shooting it but its less popular to reload. DR

 

[The Heretic]

There will always be those who believe more power = more stopping power but everythings a trade off and at the end of the day any small increase in power isnt making a practical difference to justify the loss in capacity.

If a 115gr 9mm projectile penetrates gel the same distance as a 10mm (.40") 180 projectile, and they both expand to about .50-.60", then yes, the lethality of a single projectile could be said to be similar (debating the "wound channel" will be an issue).

And yes, capacity of mags is an issue too - which is why I often mention it. Some shots will not hit their target at all, and/or won't hit vital organs, etc. - so more shots may be necessary. Also, recoil is an issue.

Those are just some of the factors.

Another one is momentum - a projectile with more mass might penetrate deeper, or less. Velocity comes into play; with a given projectile, at a certain velocity, the projectile might penetrate less with more velocity because the projectile expands faster and/or the resistance of the target increases. OTOH - if you hit bone/cartilage, mass (and projectile construction) comes into play and more mass might penetrate better.

Lots of variables.

 

[dangerranger60]

The 40 is dying and will go the way of the 38super. Guns are slowly being discontinued but ammo while less popular will still be available due to demand from the remaining 40 owners but once those guns are passed on ammo will be as common as the 38 super. There will always be those who believe more power = more stopping power but everythings a trade off and at the end of the day any small increase in power isnt making a practical difference to justify the loss in capacity. My guess is the 9mm will remain most popular until laser beams are invented.

38 super never had the support of being a major player in LEO circles. There are millions more 40 cal guns in circulation.
Part of what made 40 cal popular was firearms sales people could sell departments new guns in a new caliber that had more power and a larger capacity than in 45, that also fit in the existing duty holsters.
The last few years those same salespeople have convinced police departments that the newest 9mm is just as effective and holds a couple rounds more. Once that field is saturated with 9mm, those same salespeople will be tasked with convincing the buyers that they have improved the 40 cal so much that any department would be considered a dinosaur that does not up their game to the improved 40 cal. New Sells! DR

 

[CLT65]

The 40 is dying and will go the way of the 38super. Guns are slowly being discontinued but ammo while less popular will still be available due to demand from the remaining 40 owners but once those guns are passed on ammo will be as common as the 38 super. There will always be those who believe more power = more stopping power but everythings a trade off and at the end of the day any small increase in power isnt making a practical difference to justify the loss in capacity. My guess is the 9mm will remain most popular until laser beams are invented.

You make a good point, but I believe a better comparison would be .38 Special, rather than .38 Super.

.38 Super is a great cartridge, but was never exceptionally popular, whereas the .40 S&W was tremendously popular for a couple decades. Yes, .38 Special was popular for longer, but its dominance has been lost for longer too, and it's still very much alive. .38 Super is alive of course, but is more of a niche round. There are far, far more .40 S&W and .38 Special guns in circulation that there ever was .38 Super.

As much as I like the .40 S&W, in all honesty I do prefer the 9mm, and shoot a lot more of it, really just because I have more guns in 9mm. Neither will be hard for me to find ammo for, so long as I have buckets full of range brass and piles of lead ingots in my garage.

I fully agree with you on the continued popularity of the 9mm. There's nothing magic about it; the simple fact is that it's a round that strikes just about the prefect balance for the average person. There are better rounds for plenty of various purposes, but it's about the best all-around average.

 

[Koda]

If a 115gr 9mm projectile penetrates gel the same distance as a 10mm (.40") 180 projectile, and they both expand to about .50-.60", then yes, the lethality of a single projectile could be said to be similar (debating the "wound channel" will be an issue).

And yes, capacity of mags is an issue too - which is why I often mention it. Some shots will not hit their target at all, and/or won't hit vital organs, etc. - so more shots may be necessary. Also, recoil is an issue.

Those are just some of the factors.

Another one is momentum - a projectile with more mass might penetrate deeper, or less. Velocity comes into play; with a given projectile, at a certain velocity, the projectile might penetrate less with more velocity because the projectile expands faster and/or the resistance of the target increases. OTOH - if you hit bone/cartilage, mass (and projectile construction) comes into play and more mass might penetrate better.

Lots of variables.

yes, this is why the more power never gains over more capacity and followup shots. The elephant in the closet here is humans are not tough like lions tigers and bears. I wont argue that larger rounds arent proportionally more powerful (penetrate deeper, expand bigger) than the 9mm but just that its not needed for self defense with humans.

 

[Koda]

38 super never had the support of being a major player in LEO circles. There are millions more 40 cal guns in circulation.
Part of what made 40 cal popular was firearms sales people could sell departments new guns in a new caliber that had more power and a larger capacity than in 45, that also fit in the existing duty holsters.
The last few years those same salespeople have convinced police departments that the newest 9mm is just as effective and holds a couple rounds more. Once that field is saturated with 9mm, those same salespeople will be tasked with convincing the buyers that they have improved the 40 cal so much that any department would be considered a dinosaur that does not up their game to the improved 40 cal. New Sells! DR

agree with this. In short people follow trends in popularity but the classics will never fade. Its possible the 40 could get a resurgence in the future but I doubt it. The 10mm came back but as far as I know that was because of people wanting bear protection guns in a semi auto and that trend took off. The watered down 10mm FBI loads quickly faded away (those made no sense whatsoever).

 

[Koda]

You make a good point, but I believe a better comparison would be .38 Special, rather than .38 Super.

.38 Super is a great cartridge, but was never exceptionally popular, whereas the .40 S&W was tremendously popular for a couple decades. Yes, .38 Special was popular for longer, but its dominance has been lost for longer too, and it's still very much alive. .38 Super is alive of course, but is more of a niche round. There are far, far more .40 S&W and .38 Special guns in circulation that there ever was .38 Super.

As much as I like the .40 S&W, in all honesty I do prefer the 9mm, and shoot a lot more of it, really just because I have more guns in 9mm. Neither will be hard for me to find ammo for, so long as I have buckets full of range brass and piles of lead ingots in my garage.

I fully agree with you on the continued popularity of the 9mm. There's nothing magic about it; the simple fact is that it's a round that strikes just about the prefect balance for the average person. There are better rounds for plenty of various purposes, but it's about the best all-around average.

Thats true the 40SW is way more popular niche caliber than the 38 super. Im not really a revolver guy so thats my personal bias getting in the way but from what I know the 38 special would be a better analogy to the 40SW. (If I recall the history the 38 super was invented for those wanting more power in a semi auto for that day so I think of it as a comparison to todays 40SW. )

 

[The Heretic]

yes, this is why the more power never gains over more capacity and followup shots. The elephant in the closet here is humans are not tough like lions tigers and bears. I wont argue that larger rounds arent proportionally more powerful (penetrate deeper, expand bigger) than the 9mm but just that its not needed for self defense with humans.

Never say never. A light 90gr 9mm bullet might not penetrate enough to reach a vital organ where a 180 gr bullet may if placed the same.

We all agree that placement is key - a miss is obviously not as good as a solid hit and misses can easily happen in a firefight.

And again, more capacity increases chances to hit vitals - IF the shots are placed well.

You make your choices and pay the piper. I generally like .40 because its variables make it favorable, even though it has less capacity. But OTOH, I do not feel undergunned with 9x19 and I do appreciate the increased capacity - I am thinking of testing some Seismic 185gr loads. https://seismicammo.com/product/185-grain-9mm-single-box/

 

[nwslopoke]

I don't know how many new pistols are chambered in 40 but the old ones I own like the Sig P229, 2022 or FNH are all duty size and the main reason I don't use as much. I prefer 40 over 9mm but I don't like shooting sub compact 40s or 45.

If I recall, I got my 40s before I started to EDC. Also, my first was during one of scares when no 9mm ammo was available. Although my 1st pistol was a 9mm.

 

[oremike]

If one were to discount the why's fors of why one caliber is Mo' Betta' than another there are no "dead" calibers. I'm sure someone is still shooting French Pin-Fires and the front stuffers VS breach loaders argument is still going on around many a campfire over a jug of good'ol corn squeazin's. I will concede that there are more and less popular calibers that can change in popularity for whatever reason. I'm a ammo manufacturer and load about 30 handgun calibers. Why you ask? Because they all sell. It might not sell all at once to one guy but I've never had any ammo last more than a couple of months on the shelf. And then they come back for more and tell their friends......

 

[BlindedByScience]

Agree with the thoughts about availability. IMHO there's value in having caliber diversity in the safe....

 

[The Heretic]

Agree with the thoughts about availability. IMHO there's value in having caliber diversity in the safe....

Diversity is what I have - while still staying with mainstream calibers; .22 rimfire, 9x19, .357/.38, .40, .44 & .45 - 5.56, 5.7x28, 7.62x39 & 51, .30-30, .30-06, .45-70, .410/20/12