After lots of thought bugging out will fail

[Silver Fox]

'Bugging Out' (BO) will suck if you have no where to go. I don't care if you have the survival skills Daniel Boone, you are a refugee and if you are openly carrying a firearm, then you are an armed refugee. I have asked this before, who likes refugees? Actors and politicians, that's who. Your neighbor doesn't like refugees so don't become one.

I think this whole notion of BO has been romanticised and then embraced by our 'Pioneer DNA' encoded within us. I mean think about it, what thrilling moments do someone fantasize about as they are buggin' out? Them against the world, shooting like Jesse James and driving like Richard Petty to get out to the woods to live like Grizzly Adams. Pure fantasy. Authors and screenwrights have made plenty of money off of this fanatasy and it has been so overplayed that we come to beleive this.

Get a plan. If it includes you relocating to better location then great. If you don't have an alternate location, then make do with what you got and don't dwell on what you don't have.

SF-

 

[MuddyWatters]

If at all possible my family and I will stay put. It would take something catastrophic and likely man made (chemical weapon, nuke) to get us to move.

Don't get me wrong, I still maintain a three stocked BOBs with one in each vehicle and one at home -- just in case.

 

[Wheeler44]

I agree with those that will "bug in" unless catastrophe hits directly...

But.....If a mudslide or insert natural disaster of your choice comes through my living room....I'm gonna hafta make an assessment that includes the possibility of buggin' out.....

And....If (insert nation or nations of your choice) attack our shores I'd hafta make an assessment based on responding to that threat....

Or.....If total societal collapse happens overnight due to (insert reason of your choice) I'd most certainly hafta make a different assessment based on the information available during the assessment period, my own general sense of the real state of the region...and a whole lotta gut reaction .....

So..

Get a plan. If it includes you relocating to better location then great. If you don't have an alternate location, then make do with what you got and don't dwell on what you don't have.

my question is; Just exactly how does one marshall their "group" (on the outside chance that stars align and you're all together at the onset) from bugged in....to ..bugged out....without appearing to be a refugee (I believe by definition you would be a refugee) ? Especially, how would one do so while armed without appearing to be an armed refugee?

And I only ask because

I have asked this before, who likes refugees? Actors and politicians, that's who. Your neighbor doesn't like refugees so don't become one.

without prescience it would be unlikely that I and my loved ones will all be at the same, safe place with all of the necessities to outlast calamity, without cloistering ourselves in several places at once (currently a physical impossibility)???

 

[uscsoldier]

 

[Silver Fox]

I agree with those that will "bug in" unless catastrophe hits directly...

But.....If a mudslide or insert natural disaster of your choice comes through my living room....I'm gonna hafta make an assessment that includes the possibility of buggin' out.....

And....If (insert nation or nations of your choice) attack our shores I'd hafta make an assessment based on responding to that threat....

Or.....If total societal collapse happens overnight due to (insert reason of your choice) I'd most certainly hafta make a different assessment based on the information available during the assessment period, my own general sense of the real state of the region...and a whole lotta gut reaction .....

So.. my question is; Just exactly how does one marshall their "group" (on the outside chance that stars align and you're all together at the onset) from bugged in....to ..bugged out....without appearing to be a refugee (I believe by definition you would be a refugee) ? Especially, how would one do so while armed without appearing to be an armed refugee?

And I only ask because without prescience it would be unlikely that I and my loved ones will all be at the same, safe place with all of the necessities to outlast calamity, without cloistering ourselves in several places at once (currently a physical impossibility)???

WD40-

No, by definition, I would be a traveler or maybe a pilgrim or possibly a commuter with a defined start point ending with a defined destination. It took many years to have this plan finalized but I have my plan. Each person must asses their own current situation, assets, liabilities and many other multiple factors and figure out what works for them.

As far as being a displaced homeowner and appearing to be a refugee, well that would start in your own community. If you have strong ties with your family (outside your home) or with friends in the local area that you are able to "hunker" down with for a short time might help. No two people will have the same situation. I don't throw dog poop over my fence into the neighbors yard and hope you don't either. Community, it is what it's all about.

As far as the family/loved ones in different locations, start with a plan and role play devils advocate looking for weaknesses within your plan. Find the weaknesses and then create back up plans or possibly creating a new plan. You should brainstorm with as many people within your group as possible. Once you have your final plan finalized (realize that contingency plans are only an 80% solution, if you go into a situation with the mindset that you have a 100% solution you are setting yourself up for failure) rehearse it. Once you rehearse it, rehearse it again. If somebody gets a new job or any other factor changes, time to look at changing the plan and then rehearsing it and looking for ways to improve the plan. There are no wrong plans, it is what works for each person.

I am sure since you are recovering survivalist you are aware of this and probably have more contingencies than I have brown hair. At best, people without a plan need need to sit down and start drafting one. Good idea would be to ask for feedback from individuals they trust.

Does this answer your questions? I am watching an auction I am bidding on.

SF-

 

[tonyspdx]

First thing, only bug out if you have a place to go and the woods are not the best places.

In the long term Heavy Population Density is the only reason to bug out. Heavy concentrations of people spell disaster, but spreading the population across a wider landscape will make things easier. If people start to vacate the cities, then the population concentration will decrease in the city, this will be good if you bug in and stay. The small towns will experience population increases, but will have to institute some form of population control. Take Portland, 1 million in the metro area. If half the population where to spread itself across the state the impact would be minimal, but the impact on the metro area would be significant. Any person not able to establish a foot hold in a reduced population area, will likely move until that foot hold will be accepted.

Long term food sources will thrive anywhere in the city or farm country, but only if geographic populations are kept in check.

The key to all this is timing. Can you keep yourself alive until the population disperses itself? That’s why heading to the woods is a bad idea. If you are going to survive, you need friends.

 

[Wheeler44]

If you are going to survive, you need friends.

We have a winner....

 

[Silver Fox]

WD40-

A big +1

Friends/family/community how ever you call it it still spells the same... you ain't doin' it on your own!

SF-

 

[Siglvr]

If at all possible my family and I will stay put. It would take something catastrophic and likely man made (chemical weapon, nuke) to get us to move. Don't get me wrong, I still maintain a three stocked BOBs with one in each vehicle and one at home -- just in case.

I concur with you and Silver Fox. I want to be prepared enough so that in most scenarios I am actually helping, and not hindering, efforts to get it all back together for us all. I don't think one can prepare for everything however.

 

[powersbj]

My bug out is planned, to family. They understand they are rally point alpha if I need to bug out. However it is also understood that my wife and I will bug in if possible. If a bug out is necessary I figure I will do it in the first 24 hours if possible before panic hits. I also keep a large stash of firearms and supplies there... Its nice when the whole family gets along and is like minded.

 

[Gunner3456]

I've already said I'm not bugging out. If the house collapses I'm camping next to it because I still have water and maybe I can salvage something from the wreckage.

If I bug out I have a good chance of dying. If I bug in I may die. I'll take my chances on bugging in.

Also, while we can learn a ton from what the pioneers and mountain men and trappers did to survive, let's NOT forget one simple thing. They were never heading into populated areas which were owned by other people other than the Indians and sometimes that cost them their lives. Usually they were headed for wide open spaces. When they found land it was their land and if there was a dispute about that, they might have died over it.

A LOT of them died on their journey even though they prepared as best they could including having mules, basic supplies and wide open space.

Today is totally different with a comparatively huge population and most good land owned by someone. Squatters would "claim and protect" good spots in the forest.

It is so much easier to harden a couple of parts of your home and stock up well and prepare to defend it than it is to become a wanderer with limited supplies.

If you live in a flood plain or other dangerous area, get out now and relocate.

$.02

 

[EZLivin]

It is so much easier to harden a couple of parts of your home and stock up well and prepare to defend it than it is to become a wanderer with limited supplies.
$.02

And get everyone in your community to replace their useless lawns with gardens. And stock up on open pollinated seeds, pest control items, and canning supplies. And get a few chickens. And learn how to make beer, for, as Benjamin Franklin said: "God gave us beer because he wants us to be happy.":drink:

 

[Wheeler44]

And get everyone in your community to replace their useless lawns with gardens. And stock up on open pollinated seeds, pest control items, and canning supplies. And get a few chickens. And learn how to make beer, for, as Benjamin Franklin said: "God gave us beer because he wants us to be happy."

As they say Down East.......Awyyyeppp... I just wonder why we can't do that before the emergency? (Insert wry smile here)

 

[EZLivin]

As they say Down East.......Awyyyeppp... I just wonder why we can't do that before the emergency? (Insert wry smile here)

Hopefully it will be a slow, steady deterioration where more and more people catch on and become proactive (at least where home gardens and those kinds of things are concerned).

 

[Gunner3456]

Hopefully it will be a slow, steady deterioration where more and more people catch on and become proactive (at least where home gardens and those kinds of things are concerned).

It is. It's happening.

In 1929, the crash was sudden for those who weren't watching, but many saw the folly and prepared. The same was true for most other countries I can think of which crashed - Germany, Venezuela, etc.

I just saw on Fox News that in the next few years the number of people on Medicare will balloon from 42 million to 72 million as baby boomers retire. The numbers on SS will be similar. We can't pay for it, and those programs already account for more than 1/3 of our total budget. How about interest on our debt with the amount of debt skyrocketing and to compound that, interest rates are bound to rise? We can't pay that either.

Our leaders are digging a hole we can't get out of. All it would take would be for China to panic over the value of the dollar and to want it's money back (sell it's US securities) and then other countries wouldn't take our dollar for payment for our imports including oil.

 

[torpedoman]

bugging out is a bad idea because you'll be going into someone elses area or a area that is open for dispute. The mountain men of the past who lived in the wilderness did so with the help of the indiand who were established in the area, At that time prey/preditor relationship was a lot better (the game population will be gone in 3 months or less) At the best they had to resupply at rendevous every year. In a true shtf situation the human population will shrink by 80-90% in the first year, hunting is a loosing deal you'll use more energy getting food than it will supply, trapping is far better energy return and to be honest not a lot of people know how or where to set traps ar even what a good trap or snare consist of. How much wood will you need to heat and cook with how do you keep it dry so it is useable how do you start a fire after the bic dies or you run out of matches? If you think that a shtf fan situtation is in your future spend next summer in the forest living off the land and see how long you last with no outside support or contact.Remember that summer is the easy season to survive.

 

[Gunner3456]

I don't believe that I'd last all day bugging out into or through populated areas. First, people would see me as a threat to what they have and second, they would want what I have.

Now, I could head W. from my place and walk straight into the vast wilderness which separates S. Oregon/N. Calif. from the Pacific Ocean. I still don't think we would all survive it considering winters, etc. We just can't carry much compared to what we have here, and that includes tools, etc.

 

[Riot]

In a regional/national or global SHTF scenario, bugging out would be largely a mistake.

Here are a few reasons:

1) hiding out in the woods, even with the best training and gear available is a short term endeavor. Maybe you can live for 3+ months on roots, berries and rabbits - then what? Eventually you'll fall ill, get injured or otherwise die from some mundane ailment that might have been preventable or remedied with $20 of personal/health items from the local drugstore.

2) if all of us (even just serious preppers) run to the hills, we'll quickly consume whatever resources (berries and bunnies) are in the immediate area.

3) what a horribly tragic waste if we ended up fighting each other for resources mentioned as well as our own gear and supplies

4) you can only carry so much, regardless if on foot, horse or SUV. If you're really clever you can carry more, but there's not really a limit to what you could store at your own home/ranch/retreat.

For whatever reason #3 resonates with me. Nothing would be worse than fighting against my neighbor instead of the common threat facing us.

You present problems with no solutions...we all have an idea of what will happen and a plan for what we will do when it does. Nevertheless, the truth of the mater is that we have no idea what is going to happen or what everyone else is going to do when it does.

All we can do is give it our best guess as to what is going to happen- then plan and prepare for what we think will happen...then sit and wait.

That's it in a nut-shell.

What the reality of it is, however, is that EVERYONE has a plan. Every single human being has a plan for what they will do when things get tough. Whether it will be to rob, steal, loot, kill, bug-out or bug-in....everyone has a plan. Some people actually plan to attack you (the prepared one) and take your weapons and supplies when SHTF.

Because of this, you have to plan for the "other guy" as well. Some people are forming teams, some people are bugging out before it gets bad, and some are just plain shutting up about their plans and gear and will just sit nice and pretty at their house.

So again, getting on people about their plans are pointless. Do you know what will happen?

 

[ORBrit]

So much depends on where you live.
I'd say living in Portland is very different from say Medford.

The biggest challenge I face is that in Eugene we have 2 large rivers running through town and if I'm on the wrong side of one, then I may have to try and get home on foot if the bridges are down. That's why my vehicle supplies are both long term on the road supplies and a "get home" bag.

Obviously anyone who still has a roof with supplies should stay there as long as possible. Especially those with kids (like me) where planned tent camping is a challenge, let alone an emergency survival situation!

If roads are passable and things deteriorate in the city/suburbs, we have a rural property where we can seek refuge and at least be away from civil unrest.

I think the important thing is to be flexible in your planning and preparation. Don't decide now that bugging in is the only option. You may not even be home when disaster strikes so the first challenge you'll face is getting home.

 

[smurf hunter]

You present problems with no solutions...

The whole point was to stimulate discussion, and looking at the quantity and quality of the responses, I'm very pleased with most of the thought people gave in their replies.

What the reality of it is, however, is that EVERYONE has a plan. Every single human being has a plan for what they will do when things get tough. Whether it will be to rob, steal, loot, kill, bug-out or bug-in....everyone has a plan. Some people actually plan to attack you (the prepared one) and take your weapons and supplies when SHTF.

A lot of people may have plans, but I'm sure there's a ton of completely unprepared people that'll impulsively choose one of the options you mention. Everyone will do SOMETHING, but let's be clear and don't describe impulsive action as a "plan".