WA Earthquake Prepardness Inadequate

[Bazooka Joe]

The problem with the 2 weeks recommendation is that it might help those in the Seattle/Olympia metro areas. It'll probably take at least two weeks to clear evacuation routes from the Puget Sound to Eastern Washington or south through Oregon. But the people out in the peninsula will needs months of preps before the roads get cleared out there, and they could be without electricity (or sewage and water if they live in a town) for much of that time. Gov't may be able to airdrop in supplies, but probably not enough for everyone and probably not dispersed widely enough.

You can see that the priority is getting people out of the big metro area before dealing with efforts to help people on the peninsula.

 

[HuckleberryFun]

Here in Portland, PBEM says straight out that if a big Cascadia Quake occurs that we should expect to be on our own for a while. Some preparations and planning is done by the city/county but even they will tell you it's not enough. Taxpayers do not want to pay a lot of money to prepare for a "what if" when there are so many other special interests lobbying for a chunk of the same money pie to spend right now. At home I have stockpiles of unspecified "stuff" to last us a pretty long time. In the end it's up to the individual to prepare. If we're "lucky" maybe the President (whoever that will be) might just fly over our devastated city on the way to someplace else and we can wave to him/her with either five fingers or one finger, as you see fit...

 

[mjbskwim]

"IF" there is a massive earthquake I'll guarantee that the Hood canal bridge goes down......no matter what.
I have talked to some ex military over there about keeping the seattlites off the peninsula. That topic came up,let's just say.
Most the folks on the peninsula understand they will be alone and relish the fact.

 

[HuckleberryFun]

"IF" there is a massive earthquake I'll guarantee that the Hood canal bridge goes down......no matter what.
I have talked to some ex military over there about keeping the seattlites off the peninsula. That topic came up,let's just say.
Most the folks on the peninsula understand they will be alone and relish the fact.

Sounds kinda like the signs that went up outside some less than welcoming town limits during the Depression:
"Attention Bums! Nothing for you here. Keep moving!"

 

[Night-Viper]

It's not a matter of if, but when. According to Portland State University there is a 14% chance it will happen in the next 50 years.

According to the New Yorker article the quake will cover an area over 140,000 Miles, affecting over 7 million people, the projected death toll is 13,000, with 27,000 injured, Portland is said to be liquefied, and this will be the worst disaster in North American history.

So if you don't think that's serious and not worth preparing for, then keep your head in the sand. This will affect our entire country. The PNW is the Tech capital of the country and one of the largest trade oriented regions.

Maybe instead of wasting tax dollars on all of this foreign aid, we should be using it to prepare for total havoc, which when reaked, could cripple our nation. This isn't just a PNW issue, it's a National issue, which the Federal, not just the states of WA & OR should take very seriously.

Maybe it won't happen in our lifetime, but is it worth the risk? Don't you want your children and prosperity to survive. It's pretty selfish to turn a blind eye to a pending atrocity, just because it might not happen to you.

 

[cascadian]

That we are unprepared as a whole for a quake of any size is not a surprise. That our infrastructure is not expected to survive is not a surprise. That people will die is not a surprise.

Please bear in mind that the concept of subduction zone quakes is less than 20 years old. That the first one we got to see in the modern era of the 24/7 media coverage was in 2004. Since then we saw two more, Chile and Fukashima. (Yes the 1960 Chile and the 64 Anchorage quakes were somewhat studied. but we really didn't have much of an idea what we were looking at.)

So, yeah. Our aging infrastructure never took that into account in building. We didn't know. And we have a court ordered 4 billion dollar mandate to put bigger culverts into most roadways for salmon. And somewhere in the billions for putting ADA sidewalks in. Not to mention the 54 Billion Sound Transit wants. I seem to recall that the Judiciary is fining the Legislature some unGodly amount of money each day for not 'fully funding' schools.

We aren't going to get to be proactive here. The money just isn't there.

Some good news. even in the worst case projections pretty much all of us will survive. Some infrastructure will survive. Those that don't will be rebuilt over time. We have forest critters to eat and plenty of water to drink. We have plenty of trees to chop and burn for cooking and heat.

Yes, things would not look as they do today. That's life. But we will get by, we will be resilient and we will get through it. We always do.

For context, I was an emergency manager for a local government for a number of years and as I read the state AAR, it appears that some folks finally saw some of the shortfalls I tried to point out back at that time. Unfortunately, most people in the profession are up to a level of performing preordained tasks and checklists while not grasping problem solving. Even more unfortunate is that the majority of people we have in emergency management positions didn't grow up here and are sadly deficient in local knowledge, capabilities, history or potential. They see their function as coordinating a federal response rather than dealing with what are sure to be issues. Some are good and most have good intentions. But they fail to see their own limitations.

A number of things were brought up in the AAR, and I hope that they will be acted upon for the betterment of the area. Frankly, I am surprised that they have allowed their limitations to become public. Am sure it's painful for them.

But, to the point, REMA (redneck emergency management agency) will be in force and solving problems long before officials get their plans and activities in place. Count on it.

And, like I said. We will get through it.

(BTW, I still have plenty of hip pocket weasel McHale's Navy answers kicking around that can be put into place when people understand that they are facing situations far worse than they ever envisioned.)

 

[Defense Minister]

When it comes to prepping for Cascadia, think in terms of months, not weeks, and when it comes to high level, professional medical care, years... It is estimated that priority travel routes along the I-5 corridor will be 18 months to partial restoration! Think: No Albertson's trucks...

http://www.opb.org/aftershock/

After you enter your own zip code, enter one that's on the coast, just for fun... My worst-case scenario plan post Cascadia is to abandon everything and start a new life somewhere else as soon as I can find a functional bridge or runway. Many people won't have any other choice when you consider the decades-long economic impact so when it comes to risk mitigation, it's worth considering!

 

[mjbskwim]

It's not a matter of if, but when. According to Portland State University there is a 14% chance it will happen in the next 50 years.

According to the New Yorker article the quake will cover an area over 140,000 Miles, affecting over 7 million people, the projected death toll is 13,000, with 27,000 injured, Portland is said to be liquefied, and this will be the worst disaster in North American history.

So if you don't think that's serious and not worth preparing for, then keep your head in the sand. This will affect our entire country. The PNW is the Tech capital of the country and one of the largest trade oriented regions.

Maybe instead of wasting tax dollars on all of this foreign aid, we should be using it to prepare for total havoc, which when reaked, could cripple our nation. This isn't just a PNW issue, it's a National issue, which the Federal, not just the states of WA & OR should take very seriously.

Maybe it won't happen in our lifetime, but is it worth the risk? Don't you want your children and prosperity to survive. It's pretty selfish to turn a blind eye to a pending atrocity, just because it might not happen to you.

This is a classic case of how most folks will believe whatever the gubment tells them. Just cause some college says it's so,I should believe it.
Hence the 9/11 BS that is believed
None of that BS makes me believe it will happen in my grandson's lifetime. None of that makes me think anyone should prepare for "The Big One"
But it doesn't make me think y'all shouldn't be prepared for whatever may come about.
All the testing and reporting is mostly to get further funding for studies.
Heck, if they say ' Idunnoh whatsgunnahappen ' they wouldn't get much funding now would they?
Besides, it happens tomorrow or in 50 years, there will only be a small percentage of folks any where near as prepared as they should be.

 

[ArgentineSteel]

Not to worry, the govt will create more convoluted laws, raise taxes and take away freedoms to cover these concerns.


Ray

Only thing they cover is their lower set of cheeks

 

[0GRE]

I've heard a few things and have subsequently done some studying on the quake scenario for my job.

As far as Portland goes, we will be a secondary priority compared to the massive destruction on the coast. Refugees from those communities will likely not be able to caravan east, other than by foot, for weeks. Therefore, all immediate forms of aid will be sent to them first; to help rescue and evacuate victims who are cut off. In the meantime, Portland's public assets are supposed to work on containing all immediate fires/hazmat dangers, clearing routes through Portland for responders/evacuees, securing resources, setting up points of distribution for aid, broadcasting emergency information through various outlets, etc. PBEM's playbook states (many, many, MANY times) the City's resources will immediately be overwhelmed and achieving the aforementioned goals will be difficult.

Redmond is the designated nexus for relief flowing into Oregon and they have been warned to expect upwards of 100,000 displaced people after the quake.

Average Portlanders should not expect to see any outside aid for weeks. We know from Katrina that social order will break down after 72 hours. Locations like pharmacies, gas stations, grocery stores, sporting good stores, and so on will be the scene of some "heated negotiations over vital resources." The police will be busy assessing their own capabilities and hardening their own bases of operation before they venture out to do anything.

All of Oregon's diesel and gasoline reserves sit in the tank farms southwest of the St. Johns Bridge. Those are expected to slide into the Willamette River, either before or after the fuel catches fire. That will be a nasty environmental hazard to go along with the fact that fuel will need to be trucked in to help reconstruction efforts.

Some utilities are expected to be out of order for up to a year. Electricity will be down for at least a few days and as long as six weeks in some areas. The Bull Run watershed and the pump fields in northern Portland supply most of the water to the city. Any disruption to those systems will halt water service for a time. Parts of the aging sewer system will disappear and need months to be replaced.

I've gone on too long and you get the point.

Don't just store food and water. Have the (long-term) means to purify water, cook food, deal with sanitation, maintain personal hygiene, etc. If you find yourself being given an evacuation order, then know what to take and what to leave.

 

[harrisonhomestead1]

"IF" there is a massive earthquake I'll guarantee that the Hood canal bridge goes down......no matter what.
I have talked to some ex military over there about keeping the seattlites off the peninsula. That topic came up,let's just say.
Most the folks on the peninsula understand they will be alone and relish the fact.

From my understanding, those on the coast, specifically on the Peninsula will be hit hardest. I believe they speculate that most coastal and island towns will cease to exist after the Tsunami makes landfall.

 

[Night-Viper]

This is a classic case of how most folks will believe whatever the gubment tells them. Just cause some college says it's so,I should believe it.
Hence the 9/11 BS that is believed
None of that BS makes me believe it will happen in my grandson's lifetime. None of that makes me think anyone should prepare for "The Big One"
But it doesn't make me think y'all shouldn't be prepared for whatever may come about.
All the testing and reporting is mostly to get further funding for studies.
Heck, if they say ' Idunnoh whatsgunnahappen ' they wouldn't get much funding now would they?
Besides, it happens tomorrow or in 50 years, there will only be a small percentage of folks any where near as prepared as they should be.

Colleges aren't owned by the government and funding for scientific research comes from a lot of places other than our government. To say that scientists at a university are conducting research just for money is "BS". People who conduct research are extremely passionate about their field and work, they eat, sleep, and dream it. It's laughable to say that someone is going to go through the strenuous work of PHD program for money. No one gets rich in academia, they do it for passion. "Idunnoh" is what propells science and research, that's why it's conducted, because we don't know and want to find out.

9/11 BS makes you not believe in Earthquake BS?

"None of that makes me think anyone should prepare for "The Big One"
But it doesn't make me think y'all shouldn't be prepared for whatever may come about."

Nice use of a double negative there. So your saying don't be prepared for the Cascadia Quake, but be prepared for whatever? That's great advice, before I was worried, but now we can all rest assured.

 

[HB of CJ]

Risk Mitigation? I am hearing different odds from different folks and outfits. Anywhere from one in thirty in 30 years to one in fifty in fifty years. I am about 70. Not so much worrying about just me but worrying about my young family and friends. Odds are much worserer for them that the big one will happen. My job now is passing it forward. Just me. Respectfully. HB of CJ

 

[mjbskwim]

Colleges aren't owned by the government and funding for scientific research comes from a lot of places other than our government. To say that scientists at a university are conducting research just for money is "BS". People who conduct research are extremely passionate about their field and work, they eat, sleep, and dream it. It's laughable to say that someone is going to go through the strenuous work of PHD program for money. No one gets rich in academia, they do it for passion. "Idunnoh" is what propells science and research, that's why it's conducted, because we don't know and want to find out.

9/11 BS makes you not believe in Earthquake BS?

"None of that makes me think anyone should prepare for "The Big One"
But it doesn't make me think y'all shouldn't be prepared for whatever may come about."

Nice use of a double negative there. So your saying don't be prepared for the Cascadia Quake, but be prepared for whatever? That's great advice, before I was worried, but now we can all rest assured.

Sure

 

[cascadian]

The odds, predictions, timelines, trends and such regarding Cascadia are guesses at best. Again, we have really only known about it for 20 years. There is a lot to be learned.

What is a near certainty in a person's lifetime up this way is that there will be a remembered quake. !949 Chehalis, 1965 Olympia (?), 2001 Nisqually? Those were all Benihoff zone quakes and seem to come every couple of generations. Local (Tacoma, South Whidbey, Seattle, Devil's Mountain, etc) haven't been too active but certainly could at some point.

Things happen. I'm not particularly worried about any of it as pretty much all is survivable. I do hope that I am not far from home if/when it happens but can hike a ways if I need. If I am driving I hope to be able to differentiate between a quake and a rough running engine/transmission quickly so as to avoid over/underpasses. As long as I survive the shocks, I'll be just fine.

And, likely, so will you...