- Messages
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I'm old so please bear with me. I think that you might find this
interesting and informative.
For 50 plus years I worked as an operations research analyst.
(This is someone who looks at what is going on and what might
happen in the future if things continue and then makes recommendations
of what changes might be beneficial to reach a more desirable future.)
Ok. There is my "bonified." Now let me tell you about the past.
When I was a young man, my Grandfather talked to me about the Prohibition Era.
Most of us still living never lived thru the time when alcohol was banned in the USA,
but it did happen. I asked Granddad how this came about. He said that he didn't know.
Everyone drank and no one really thought that alcohol would be banned.
When working on my Masters degree, I wrote a paper on how alcohol came to be
banned in the USA. I won't bore you with the details. The bottom-line is that
the society at that instant in time reached a "tipping point."
Here is the definition of a tipping point:
"The point at which a series of small changes or incidents becomes significant
enough to cause a larger, more insignificant change."
In the case of Probibition, people were reacting to a series of small events.
Alcoholism had reached a height where families were being torn apart, children
were going hungry, employees were unable to function, crime was rampant, drunks
staggered along streets accosting people for money and so on.
Many small segments of society had, had enough. It was proposed that banning
alcohol would solve all of these problems. And, people jumped on it.
Got the picture now? It was a tipping point. Enough incidents had occurred that
people would grasp at anything that promised a solution. Hence Prohibition passed.
Does this sound familiar? It should. Think about events such as nightly shootings,
mall shootings, auto to auto shootings and so on. An ongoing series of events that people
want to stop.
As an analyst, I can tell that Oregon is at a tipping point. All that has happened
over the last few years has created a place and time when groups are grasping
at anything as a solution.
Bottomline is that it is highly likely the gun control measure will pass. If the
election were to be held today, the probability of passage is 75% or greater.
Will this bill stop all those incidents which have brought us to this point?
The answer is NO. No more than Prohibition stopped the problems associated
with alcohol.
Can anything be done to change this outcome? Perhaps. From my perspective
as an operations analyst I want to present what I think is the only possible solution.
First, stop attaching this bill as "a bad bill". It doesn't do any good to say that
even if it is true. All you are doing is polarizing the population.
Second, agree that something needs to be done, but tell people that this bill
is terribly flawed in what it is trying to accomplish. Point out the flaws and
how this bill will not help (if you interested in how to do this I can tell you).
Third, commit to working on a series of compromise bills/laws that would
have the impact that everyone would like to see. For example, restricting
purchase/ownership of semi-automatic weapons to people over the age
of 25. Yes, it is a bitter bill to swallow, but it just might stop a lot of the
school and mall shootings based on the age demographics of who
does these type of shootings. (Your children can still shoot bolt action
rifles and revolvers._ For example, commit to a bill/law that requires
DAs to prosecute any felon who uses a firearm in a crime or is caught
with a firearm. No plea deals. No paroles. No early release.
And so on.
If you don't offer some hope, then I can guarantee the current bill
will pass and it is even worse than you imagine. It is going to take
"give and take" to stop it.
Now comes the sad part. Every hear the saying "lots of smoke but
no fire"? It means the same as lots of talk and no action.
This is true of most gun owners. Lots of talk about how important
it is to protect their rights, but little action. 45% of gun owners admit
that they rarely vote. You do NOT defeat ballot measures by saying
how bad something is and then not voting. Most of you who don't
vote use the excuse that your vote "doesn't matter" or "does not good".
You are wrong.
There are two things you can do. Think about what I have said and
vote. If you really want to defeat this bill, then talk to your friends,
neighbors and anyone who might listen to you. Do what I have
suggested. Agree that something must be done, but point out
that this bill does hot do what needs to be done. Suggest things
that are reasonable and that might really make a difference.
If you want, copy this message off and read it to them. We want
to mitigate this problem as much as you do. Tell them so. Let us
find real solutions that we can all live with.
TJ
interesting and informative.
For 50 plus years I worked as an operations research analyst.
(This is someone who looks at what is going on and what might
happen in the future if things continue and then makes recommendations
of what changes might be beneficial to reach a more desirable future.)
Ok. There is my "bonified." Now let me tell you about the past.
When I was a young man, my Grandfather talked to me about the Prohibition Era.
Most of us still living never lived thru the time when alcohol was banned in the USA,
but it did happen. I asked Granddad how this came about. He said that he didn't know.
Everyone drank and no one really thought that alcohol would be banned.
When working on my Masters degree, I wrote a paper on how alcohol came to be
banned in the USA. I won't bore you with the details. The bottom-line is that
the society at that instant in time reached a "tipping point."
Here is the definition of a tipping point:
"The point at which a series of small changes or incidents becomes significant
enough to cause a larger, more insignificant change."
In the case of Probibition, people were reacting to a series of small events.
Alcoholism had reached a height where families were being torn apart, children
were going hungry, employees were unable to function, crime was rampant, drunks
staggered along streets accosting people for money and so on.
Many small segments of society had, had enough. It was proposed that banning
alcohol would solve all of these problems. And, people jumped on it.
Got the picture now? It was a tipping point. Enough incidents had occurred that
people would grasp at anything that promised a solution. Hence Prohibition passed.
Does this sound familiar? It should. Think about events such as nightly shootings,
mall shootings, auto to auto shootings and so on. An ongoing series of events that people
want to stop.
As an analyst, I can tell that Oregon is at a tipping point. All that has happened
over the last few years has created a place and time when groups are grasping
at anything as a solution.
Bottomline is that it is highly likely the gun control measure will pass. If the
election were to be held today, the probability of passage is 75% or greater.
Will this bill stop all those incidents which have brought us to this point?
The answer is NO. No more than Prohibition stopped the problems associated
with alcohol.
Can anything be done to change this outcome? Perhaps. From my perspective
as an operations analyst I want to present what I think is the only possible solution.
First, stop attaching this bill as "a bad bill". It doesn't do any good to say that
even if it is true. All you are doing is polarizing the population.
Second, agree that something needs to be done, but tell people that this bill
is terribly flawed in what it is trying to accomplish. Point out the flaws and
how this bill will not help (if you interested in how to do this I can tell you).
Third, commit to working on a series of compromise bills/laws that would
have the impact that everyone would like to see. For example, restricting
purchase/ownership of semi-automatic weapons to people over the age
of 25. Yes, it is a bitter bill to swallow, but it just might stop a lot of the
school and mall shootings based on the age demographics of who
does these type of shootings. (Your children can still shoot bolt action
rifles and revolvers._ For example, commit to a bill/law that requires
DAs to prosecute any felon who uses a firearm in a crime or is caught
with a firearm. No plea deals. No paroles. No early release.
And so on.
If you don't offer some hope, then I can guarantee the current bill
will pass and it is even worse than you imagine. It is going to take
"give and take" to stop it.
Now comes the sad part. Every hear the saying "lots of smoke but
no fire"? It means the same as lots of talk and no action.
This is true of most gun owners. Lots of talk about how important
it is to protect their rights, but little action. 45% of gun owners admit
that they rarely vote. You do NOT defeat ballot measures by saying
how bad something is and then not voting. Most of you who don't
vote use the excuse that your vote "doesn't matter" or "does not good".
You are wrong.
There are two things you can do. Think about what I have said and
vote. If you really want to defeat this bill, then talk to your friends,
neighbors and anyone who might listen to you. Do what I have
suggested. Agree that something must be done, but point out
that this bill does hot do what needs to be done. Suggest things
that are reasonable and that might really make a difference.
If you want, copy this message off and read it to them. We want
to mitigate this problem as much as you do. Tell them so. Let us
find real solutions that we can all live with.
TJ
