The Math on Needing to be Prepared - Revolution

[RicInOR]

The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

Stepping through this, the average year for colony establishment is 1678, which is 340 years ago. Two qualifying events in 340 years is a 0.5882% annual chance of nationwide violent revolution against the ruling government. Do the same math as we did above with the floodplains, in precisely the same way, and we see a 37% chance that any American of average life expectancy will experience at least one nationwide violent revolution.

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[cigars]

A lengthy read. His own thoughts are well put together, but it seemed like he was just stating the obvious.

 

[Colts4me]

Let's see now, I am 66 and the closest in my lifetime to a revolution was 1968 when young men were being drafted to fight a war that nobody wanted. Bombings and riots as 50,000 young men were killed in Vietnam, it's gonna take some serious bloodshed for a revolution to happen in my opinion.

 

[druiseeker]

A lengthy read. His own thoughts are well put together, but it seemed like he was just stating the obvious.

I agree. But I don't think many non-preppers are even willing to give credence to what is probably "obvious" to most of us.

 

[Camelfilter]

Yah, folks do not like numbers.

On another board, members have included other events in our countries history. Events which could cause similar calamity as a civil war, at the family level. Doing so, the statistical probability increases markedly so, for a said calamity in a lifetime.

Ex. simply including every war these United States has ever been involved in.