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Chicago crime rate declines as CCW applications rise, says report

The Washington Times yesterday reported that the crime rate has dropped in Chicago since Illinois adopted a concealed carry licensing system; a change in stature that was forced on the legislature by a pair of lawsuits that included the Second Amendment Foundation's Moore v. Madigan.


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No, it hasn't "proven" a darn thing. Ever hear of statistical significance? You would need a ton of data before you could draw any valid conclusions.

Please don't fall into the trap of "confirmation bias" that causes people to latch onto anything they hear that they believe in and discount anything they don't.

Australia is a prime example, where both sides still claim that banning firearms either raised or lowered the crime rate, depending on their personal prejudices. The fact is the crime rate rose, sank, rose, and sank many times. Besides, only 15% of Ozzie households had a firearm in them before the ban, so how much of an effect could it have had? But logic can't break through some peoples' adamant beliefs.

Now, how many CCW's have been granted statewide since the new Illinois law went into effect? How many of them are among the 2.7 million residents of Chicago, or the 9.7 million in the Chicago metro area? Do you really believe that any fluctuation in the crime rate could be attributed to such a tiny number of carriers? What would (will) you say if (when) the crime rate rises again, as it inevitably must due to random processes?

Please don't present this statistical nonsense as any part of a pro-CCW argument, because it rubs off on all of us supporters and makes us look foolish.
 

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