Silver Prices Hitting the Roof

[PORSCHE928S4]

And yet if you look at silver history your scenario is the total outlier. Silver history says moves in a large bull market are moves of much larger percentages than we have already. I know that seems crazy but it's true. ALSO, when compared to the S&P, dollar index, and a couple of other key indicators that match up well with silver and have a large effect on silver say we are still early in the bull market.

I do keep waiting to see a correction. In fact a decent correction would be good for the market right now to allow for the market to settle but right now even the big wholesale site I usually use for setting prices is missing a lot of inventory. Even the wholesalers are running out OR they don't want to sell right now at low premiums to allow the price to run even higher.

Could Silver go back to $20, maybe but it would be the extreme unlikely event. Could it go back to 80, much more likely. What we are seeing now is silver being repriced for the first time in a long time. The futures market lost control and the price will find its own level. Add to that the fact that China and India are still very active buying markets and their spot price is even higher than ours. Until that cools down there is no chance that we will see a large reset. In fact a silver squeeze is looking more and more likely. (And a squeeze even if it only perceived leads to the spot running to 200+ very easily before we fall back a more natural level (probably in the $100 I

I guess time will tell

 

[Cavedweller]

We have all seen it done already just look at the silver history and you will see

Changing times and market drivers require a paradigm shift. Difficult for some, I understand. But stick to the old assumptions and get left in the dust.

 

[coltemp]

In the last two bull markets after everyone left the gold and silver standards, there was an 8 times run in price. Take your bear market low to bull market high, divide the bull market high by 8 and you had basically your bear market low. This is what happened in the 1970's run and the 2000-2012 run.
the most recent bear market low for gold was 1050 set in 2015. So that means we may be on our way to $8,500 gold.
Based solely on that and having silver go to it's nominal gold to silver ratio of only 3% (We are at 2 or just below it right now) and silver will top at $255. If you use the 6%, which was repeated in 1980, that number becomes $510 per oz.

The numbers will not happen in a straight line. Good expectation by many the once we hit 6K in gold and roughly $160 to 200 in silver we are going to see a good correction in price for a while before resuming the drive upward.
Add to this the key facts that are different this time from past runs. (Both of which gives strong reasons this is only the beginning and those who sold out now will wish they had held some for longer.)
1. Gold - even with sky high prices countries continue to stockpile gold NOT bonds.
2. Key here is what happens in the bond markets. Japan is in trouble, the US may not be far behind. Almost every country in the world is drowning in Fiat debt. If there is a crisis in the bond market (and we know there are ripples when the Fed announced quietly back in November they are ready to start buying treasuries again.) That could lead to a sharp flight to hard assets. One of the biggest recipients when that happens are precious metals.
3. Silver - in the past we had sharp runs in price for other reasons and the price reset fairly rapidly because the overall supply of silver was strong. there were plenty of reserves of silver that were used to tame the markets. This time around we have had 6 straight years of structural deficits in Silver. (i.e. way more industrial use of silver than was mined or recycled.) There is no longer an abundance of above ground supply to soak up the demand. This is something we may already have begun to see, and part of why the price is adjusting so fast.
4. Add to that the stockpiling of Silver as a strategic mineral. Fact: the US military uses approximately 50 million ounces (There fixed the typos!) of silver for military applications every year all alone. Is it any wonder everyone is calling silver a strategic supply.

Only time will tell, even those who called the run months ago did not expect to see it take off this fast. It has blown past the conservative expectation numbers but is only in the middle of the spread so far. Hope everyone has their collective seatbelts fastened.

 

[kmk1012]

Add to that the stockpiling of Silver as a strategic mineral. Fact: the US military uses approximately 50 million tons of silver for military applications every year all alone. Is it any wonder everyone is calling silver a strategic supply.

The US Military uses close to 2 trillion ounces per year? 50 million tons? Come on now, I'm going to be walking in a circle the next few days from you pulling my leg

 

[Bolt_308]

Get your own comex Bar: https://www.collectpure.com/marketp...mex-exchange-delivery-silver-bar-999-fine0140
1000 oz deliverable.

Reasonably priced as well at $3 per oz below spot. There are 20 available at this price point. (Note when posted that was $105,990 per bar)

What's extra crazy is if you think about how much that cost before the insanity. Cheapest I ever bought silver was around $25 an ounce. So that 1000 COMEX bar would have been around $25,000 at that time. Yeah a ton of money, but look at how it has now QUADRUPLED in value, in around a year. Just crazy!

 

[Mono1]

Curious about that date, something you can elaborate about?

I know that some people are skeptical of Technical Analysis. "Technical Analysis" is the attempt to discern price trends / forecasts from patterns in price behavior (i.e. "Chart Patterns").

I majored in Finance in college and have been a Financial Analyst for well over 40 years. Having said that, I Absolutely offer zero guarantees to the outcome of any forecast that I make. I do not provide investment advice to anyone. I am intimately aware of the legalities involved in same and I offer my opinions only to my brothers at NWF for the price you are paying which is absolutely zero

If you are still interested. Read on.

In my view, there are certain chart patterns that have higher historical probabilities than others of coming to fruition.

Among these, are Rising Wedges, Flat-Top Triangles, and a few others.

But, there is ONE that has impressed me greatly over the years more than any others.

It is the "CUP and HANDLE" price pattern.

As you would expect, the price action traces out a pattern of a "CUP" followed by a "Handle" after it.

Many have been observed throughout history. Most recently, a CUP was formed in Gold from 2011 to 2020 or so. The subsequent "Handle" meanders a bit before launching above the top of the CUP, after which, a measured move occurs that will normally be several multiples of the distance from the bottom of the cup to the rim (all of this is info is available if you search on "Cup & Handle Pattern" on the Net).

In Silver, which is the subject of this forum, there exists a Cup & Handle that is absolutely massive.

Below is a Chart that I posted a good while back, maybe not in this forum but elsewhere for sure:



It shows a Cup that spans Half a Century! Followed by a Handle that at the time showed a price in the $30's.

Since we have now broken above the Top of the Cup, my view is that the price target would be a minimum of $100, and since the typical price action after a Cup & Handle Breakout is Multiples of the depth of the CUP, suggests $140 or $190 ultimately.

In terms of timing, the sheer magnitude (half century) of this CUP, to ME, at least, means the Bull breakout should last a decade.

Unfortunately, the 2032 date remains proprietary.

 

[Mono1]

So that means we may be on our way to $8,500 gold.

Would not surprise.

 

[Bolt_308]

I know that some people are skeptical of Technical Analysis. "Technical Analysis" is the attempt to discern price trends / forecasts from patterns in price behavior (i.e. "Chart Patterns").

I majored in Finance in college and have been a Financial Analyst for well over 40 years. Having said that, I Absolutely offer zero guarantees to the outcome of any forecast that I make. I do not provide investment advice to anyone. I am intimately aware of the legalities involved in same and I offer my opinions only to my brothers at NWF for the price you are paying which is absolutely zero

If you are still interested. Read on.

In my view, there are certain chart patterns that have higher historical probabilities than others of coming to fruition.

Among these, are Rising Wedges, Flat-Top Triangles, and a few others.

But, there is ONE that has impressed me greatly over the years more than any others.

It is the "CUP and HANDLE" price pattern.

As you would expect, the price action traces out a pattern of a "CUP" followed by a "Handle" after it.

Many have been observed throughout history. Most recently, a CUP was formed in Gold from 2011 to 2020 or so. The subsequent "Handle" meanders a bit before launching above the top of the CUP, after which, a measured move occurs that will normally be several multiples of the distance from the bottom of the cup to the rim (all of this is info is available if you search on "Cup & Handle Pattern" on the Net).

In Silver, which is the subject of this forum, there exists a Cup & Handle that is absolutely massive.

Below is a Chart that I posted a good while back, maybe not in this forum but elsewhere for sure:

View attachment 2237100

It shows a Cup that spans Half a Century! Followed by a Handle that at the time showed a price in the $30's.

Since we have now broken above the Top of the Cup, my view is that the price target would be a minimum of $100, and since the typical price action after a Cup & Handle Breakout is Multiples of the depth of the CUP, suggests $140 or $190 ultimately.

In terms of timing, the sheer magnitude (half century) of this CUP, to ME, at least, means the Bull breakout should last a decade.

Unfortunately, the 2032 date remains proprietary.

Me just like silver because pretty. Shiny metal me likey. . .

( Wow man- you are far above any analysis my brain could comprehend! Well done! ;-) )

 

[Mono1]

Shiny metal me likey. . .

Yeah me Likey too, Bro'. Especially Maple Leafs for some reason.

 

[Lilhigbee]

Fact: the US military uses approximately 50 million tons of silver for military applications every year all alone.

Fallacy.

Tough to do when there's been less than two million tons mined in the entire world in all of history.

"According to the Silver Institute and geological surveys, humans have mined approximately 1.74 million metric tons of silver throughout history."
https://dsfantiquejewelry.com/blogs...ch-silver-exists-in-the-world-and-who-owns-it

 

[gmerkt]

Could Silver go back to $20, maybe but it would be the extreme unlikely event.

My guess, you won't see it in your lifetime.

Could it go back to 80, much more likely

More probable than $20.

It shows a Cup that spans Half a Century! Followed by a Handle that at the time showed a price in the $30's.

Since we have now broken above the Top of the Cup, my view is that the price target would be a minimum of $100, and since the typical price action after a Cup & Handle Breakout is Multiples of the depth of the CUP, suggests $140 or $190 ultimately.

These developments can take time. I've been watching PM since the early 1970's. During which time there have been some amazing, secular events. But nothing compared to the recent, rapid but sustained rise in Silver. Gold has been spectacular enough, but silver has been even more startling. Whatever happens over the course of the near future, you won't see a repeat of it in your lifetime, I'd wager.

By themselves, these amazing markets in PM can't go on forever. Not without some wider disruption of the financial system. Absent something like that, the PM situation will sort itself out, I'd think. The momentum trading in silver is huge. The amount of disinformation flying around is huge. The sheer speculation is huge. Exaggeration of impending doom is huge. Business consumers of silver won't tolerate the disruption to their trade that huge multiples of material cost increases bring about. They will find different methods. No business can keep bidding up forever what they will pay for a material input. It's possible a year from now, people will be wondering what happened to cause such irrationality, like the tulip mania. Maybe. Just my opinion.

It is possible that outsized PM gains might not themselves cause an economic panic. However, they might trigger some other domino in the world financial chain that would. In which case, PM values could go either way. They could balloon even higher, or collapse into the basement with many other financial instruments.

 

[coltemp]

The US Military uses close to 2 trillion ounces per year? 50 million tons? Come on now, I'm going to be walking in a circle the next few days from you pulling my leg

So it was a typo, fixed it. And too all you other guys who ignored the rest of the comment to fixate on one typo.... well...

 

[coltemp]

It is possible that outsized PM gains might not themselves cause an economic panic. However, they might trigger some other domino in the world financial chain that would. In which case, PM values could go either way. They could balloon even higher, or collapse into the basement with many other financial instruments.

They are finally repricing which is what happen when the markets are repressed. This rise is really a response to a symptom that has arisen from a fiat currency fixed to nothing. Metals become a safe haven in that everyone can agree on a certain intrinsic value. Fiat only stays stable so long as enough people believe it is worth what the government tells you its worth. Lots of other hard assets can store and hold value but few of them are as potable and small as the precious metals. Which is in part why they have always throughout time held a certain amount of value.
also, the are metals that cannot be created. Diamond for a long time maintained value out people have figured out ways to create and reproduce them that there are near impossible to distinguish from the real for most people.
My best guess is the price measured in Fiat will sink a but with a drop of the other markets but will quickly recover as it usually does when there is a flee to safety.

 

[gmerkt]

This rise is really a response to a symptom that has arisen from a fiat currency fixed to nothing.

Yes, this has been the situation for a long time. Some people say, 1971. Which isn't really true for individuals, just governments. In the US, the people have largely been using fiat currency since 1933. Yes, one dollar silver certificates were convertible until into the 1960's. But all of the larger bills were non-convertible. There were some of us who saw this earlier than those who are just now catching on.

Metals become a safe haven in that everyone can agree on a certain intrinsic value.

Everyone can agree metals have an intrinsic value. BUT: What they cannot agree on is a stable system of value conversion. Since we don't have the government telling us what gold and silver are worth as they used to, the market decides. And it's chaotic. At present, the value adjusts from one day to the next. So it doesn't have a sound basis of exchange as money yet.

 

[PORSCHE928S4]

https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver?gc_id=412595753&msclkid=03056eaa7fec1d4ca22007dd06e5067b&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=BNG-MME-eComm-Search-Prices-Silver&utm_term=current%20price%20on%20silver&utm_content=Silver%20Prices%20to%20Product

 

[Bolt_308]

Silver up to $112.74 this AM!

At this rate, I think I will go ahead and put in my 2 week retirement notice now . . . ;-)

 

[Camelfilter]

GSR 1:45.5 ATM (JMBullion data)

 

[Camelfilter]

GSR now 1:44 (JMbullion data).

 

[Bolt_308]

Silver up to $116.46!!

Good timing, because this morning Fed Ex showed up with a fresh order of silver at my house- 12 ounces of "Building Blocks" - Silver Legos!! Here I thought I had overpaid a month ago, when I bought them at $84 an ounce, but the nostalgia of having Legos made of silver, when I pretty much grew up playing with Legos my whole childhood, was just too much to resist!

Who knew that only a month later, they would leap in price this high. . .

 

[kmk1012]

$117.27 the last time I looked. Looks like this rocket is taking off today, wow!