Reassessing bug out strategy - What about fires?

[Cavedweller]

I hadn't really given this a lot of thought until recently, but my BOL is in a remote location in an area prone to wildfires. Which prompts me to ask the general question: Is it a realistic strategy in our region to bug out in a SHTF/TEOTWAWKI situation? If there is a general system breakdown, presumably there will be no coordinated wildfire control efforts. One could leave one's primary residence for a BOL, only to become a refugee again during fire season. Not only might there be no coordinated wildfire response, there could conceivably be more causes of uncontrolled wild fires.

I've pretty much given up on the idea of bugging out at this point anyway due to age and health considerations, but I'm wondering what you all think on this topic.

Read More

 

[Nosferatu]

On the MT property, I'm putting together my own fire skid on a trailer so that I can at least give myself a fighting chance. I have a dozen sprinklers I can quickly deploy as well.

If that doesn't do it, I'm hauling arse down the mountain. Not much of a choice.

 

[NeoBlackdog]

On the MT property, I'm putting together my own fire skid on a trailer so that I can at least give myself a fighting chance. I have a dozen sprinklers I can quickly deploy as well.

If that doesn't do it, I'm hauling arse down the mountain. Not much of a choice.

Bring food, whisky, and bullets and head over the hill. As long as we're not burned out we'll at minimum give you a place to park your wagon and hitch the mule.

 

[Koda]

Is it a realistic strategy in our region to bug out in a SHTF/TEOTWAWKI situation?

If things get that bad how long can you last at your cabin regardless of wildfire?

 

[Cavedweller]

If things get that bad how long can you last at your cabin regardless of wildfire?

If I were 20 years younger, for a while anyway. There is plenty of game, a source of fresh water at the surface, and lots of firewood/cooking fuel. Barring injury and/or illness requiring professional medical attention, a person could probably get by, although under more primitive conditions than most of us are used to.. It's just a matter of weighing risks. Where is one better off, on one's own (figuratively speaking) or in the middle of civil strife? I think I'd rather try that than being a refugee on the road, or having to depend on some government provided shelter.

 

[Koda]

Where is one better off, on one's own (figuratively speaking) or in the middle of civil strife?

Short version is, if you can bug out long enough for society to rebuild then dont worry about the wildfire risk, is less risk than being in the city.

Maybe spend your time there digging out a fireline perimeter..

 

[gmerkt]

I've pretty much given up on the idea of bugging out at this point anyway due to age and health considerations, but I'm wondering what you all think on this topic.

Pretty much this one for me.

But who says "they" have an effective "coordinated wildfire response?" Yes, authorities attempt to fight wildfires to the best of their abilities, but these days large fires burn until the weather gets better. Giving credit where it's due, they try containment to minimize danger to the closest populated areas that are at risk. But "populated areas" are those that will likely be avoided by survivalists in a SHTF fan situation.

I think I'd rather try that than being a refugee on the road, or having to depend on some government provided shelter.

Yeah, that refugee on the road thing is already a big hurdle for most people. If you already have an established place on some remote property that you own, it's one thing. Launching into the back country without that advance resource is challenging.

Having your own remote property comes with some risks in the situation described. Meaning, there is you as an absentee owner, and there are the local, permanent residents who already know everything that's going on in the area. Which puts you at some disadvantage when you try to take possession of your place when things really go lawless.

Short version is, if you can bug out long enough for society to rebuild then dont worry about the wildfire risk, is less risk than being in the city.

I was thinking of this. If the time was to be of a relatively short duration, what are the chances of a fire coming along? Probably somewhat elevated if many other "campers" are trying the same thing, but maybe this wouldn't make all that much difference.

 

[Cavedweller]

But who says "they" have an effective "coordinated wildfire response?" Yes, authorities attempt to fight wildfires to the best of their abilities, but these days large fires burn until the weather gets better. Giving credit where it's due, they try containment to minimize danger to the closest populated areas that are at risk. But "populated areas" are those that will likely be avoided by survivalists in a SHTF fan situation.

You are correct, they don't always put them out. But they usually try to protect structures. There have been a couple of times in recent years when large fires have burned in our BOL area until it started raining, but fire lines were constructed to protect homes in the area. It's precisely that kind of support that is likely to be absent if SHTF.

 

[Koda]

Probably somewhat elevated if many other "campers" are trying the same thing, but maybe this wouldn't make all that much difference.

Well if there is the presence of campers in the area then the risk of forest fire doubles. I'll bite my tongue on how stupid people are in summer as Ive had to put out others wilderness campfires after they've left.
I guess I really didn't bite my tongue completely...

 

[Camelfilter]

Short version is, if you can bug out long enough for society to rebuild then dont worry about the wildfire risk, is less risk than being in the city.

Maybe spend your time there digging out a fireline perimeter..

Improving fire line could also likely improve security/defense if need be.

 

[The Heretic]

I actually had to deal with this scenario in 2020; we had a human caused forest fire here on the mountain and had to evac.

Fortunately, the wind was blowing to the west from the east, away from my property, but still required the FD to fight the fire to keep it from coming this was.

Maybe spend your time there digging out a fireline perimeter.

In 2014 I had much of the acreage around my house thinned and much of the underbrush removed, then I went thru with an excavator and later a dozer to remove more brush. Each year I use a tractor and "brush hog" to mow the grass and other vegetation.

Last year we (my neighbor and I) had a guy come in with an excavator with a mulcher on the end of the arm and remove some of the brush. Each year a lot of that grows back, but much of it is green most of the year. This year I cut it early, but with a couple of rain showers and the grass growing back, it is still mostly green. By August/Sept it will probably be brown.

Sept/Oct is when I will be worrying about fires here.

In 2018 I had a wide swath of my back acreage - about 8-10 acres, clear cut of mature forest. That acreage was replanted with fir seedlings, and is now mostly grass, logging debris (including some slash piles) and some maple trees growing back. A fire would probably cross over it quickly, mostly due to dry grass, then hit the windbreak of untouched mature forest before getting to my house.

Still better than if the original forest was not cut as it would have been difficult for firefighters to get thru that forest. Now there is a cut road for firefighters to easily get to that land and fight the fire there.

It kind of depends on which direction the fire comes from though; from the west it would travel fast, but not be hot, from other directions it would be coming thru forest and be hot.

I plan to sell/move, buy land that is lower elevation and more level/less steep. I would clear, and keep clear, mostly, the land around the buildings.

 

[The Heretic]

On the MT property, I'm putting together my own fire skid on a trailer so that I can at least give myself a fighting chance.

I've mentioned doing this to the neighbors, but only one seems interested in the project.

 

[Nosferatu]

I've mentioned doing this to the neighbors, but only one seems interested in the project.

It's not cheap. I'll have at least $5k into mine once it's done, depending on the tank size(s) I end up with.

Maintaining a debris-free defensible space around structures plus multiple sprinklers placed around the perimeter and on the roof can help, depending on the fire.

Anything you can do to keep embers from igniting anything around you, the better.

 

[gmerkt]

Well if there is the presence of campers in the area then the risk of forest fire doubles. I'll bite my tongue on how stupid people are in summer as Ive had to put out others wilderness campfires after they've left.

Something to think about. The kinds of "campers" you are talking about may likely be the ones who won't make it to the back country under adverse conditions. The recreationalists under normal circumstances, not the survivalists. My reference to campers was to the survivalists who manage to make it there. But there is no doubt that multiplying the number of people in a given area, the risk of mishap of any sort goes up. All it takes is one to blow ideas of probability out the window.

I used the term "campers" semi facetiously above, as in homeless "campers" so I apologize for the confusion.

 

[Koda]

My reference to campers was to the survivalists who manage to make it there. But there is no doubt that multiplying the number of people in a given area, the risk of mishap of any sort goes up.

IMO I doubt there are that many true hardcore survivalists out there that could really survive in the woods with no established stocked shelter, the ones that can probably no need to worry about them starting fires if anyone even sees them at all.
I did catch what you meant but my take is if the roads are accessible then more than just true survivalists would show up, and if you notice people showing up they probably arent the true survivalist types who would want to keep a low profile.

 

[The Heretic]

It's not cheap. I'll have at least $5k into mine once it's done, depending on the tank size(s) I end up with.

Maintaining a debris-free defensible space around structures plus multiple sprinklers placed around the perimeter and on the roof can help, depending on the fire.

Anything you can do to keep embers from igniting anything around you, the better.

Yeah, the cost is something I would prefer to share with neighbors.

 

[Angie]

I have thought about this a bit when we were looking for our home in MT. My first thought was that if we are at war with part of our government, God forbid, one of their tactics may be to burn us out intentionally. We mountain people would be forced to flee our cabins in the woods. Sometimes, when I put my tinfoil hat on, I think they are attempting to do that already as part of their Agenda 21 objective. Insurance prices for living in the urban-wildland interface are soaring, the USFS and BLM's encouragement of superfires due to intentional lack of forest management, etc.

That being said, we ended up buying near the forest, but not in it. Not really by choice, it just happened that way. The forest is about 1/2 mile from us. We had a nearby fire a couple of nights ago when a big storm passed through. Embers are a concern, but our home has a metal roof and some type of hardiboard-type siding that looks like cedar. The deck is TREX. If I was building a home in the woods, I would build it this way for sure. It could still burn, obviously, but it will be a lot more difficult to catch fire. We keep the area around the house wet with sprinkler systems and flowers, the trees were planted 75-100 feet from the house, and we keep the grass mowed short. That's the best we can do. This is our bug-out/bug-in location though. I would not consider bugging out to the woods without a specific location ready. We made and executed a plan to get out of the city (SoCal to Reno, Reno to W. Montana, Montana was always the objective) and did it. It took us 15 years, but we had a goal and attained it.

If you currently live in an urban/suburban area and think you're going to just go up into the mountains to bug-out and live in the woods with no specific plan or location, I wish you the best of luck, but don't have high expectations for your success. Tens-Hundreds of thousands of others will be doing the same thing. People who are already there will not let you in. You're not at the top of the food chain in the forest. It's brutal in the winter. And yes, there will be forest fires with no resources to extinguish them.

 

[The Heretic]

If I ever get off my posterior and sell my property, then buy land and build, fire will be a prime consideration. Probably ICF and earth bermed. Exposed walls may have a stone (real stone) facade. Windows will have security shutters - probably metal. Roof will be metal - maybe with sprinklers installed. Probably have gravel around the house instead of grass (besides fire, field mice are a real issue here). No plants near the house. There will be trees for a windbreak (and maybe a fruit orchard), but not close to the house.

There will be fire hydrants w/hoses and a tank/cistern with a pump (possibly a pond too).

One of the issues where I am at, is tree litter. Whenever there is some wind we get branches falling - a danger in and of themselves. Also a lot of leaves and needles. Every year I need to clean the litter off the shop (all metal clad) and out of the gutters.

 

[arakboss]

In my mind bugging out is pretty much a fantasy. Most will be better off staying in. If you have a large capable family or super tight neighbors/friends, you'll last longer. The groups of savages with no respect for property or life will last the longest. In the end it will be those savage groups and a smattering of good people that managed to avoid the savages.

 

[The Heretic]

In my mind bugging out is pretty much a fantasy. Most will be better off staying in. If you have a large capable family or super tight neighbors/friends, you'll last longer. The groups of savages with no respect for property or life will last the longest. In the end it will be those savage groups and a smattering of good people that managed to avoid the savages.

The problem is bugging in/staying put is usually not an option for forest fires.