On the inflation front ...

[VinnieBoomBah]

The main problem is the guaranteed payouts. Investments don't make guaranteed gains. The payouts should not be guaranteed either. The beneficiaries would probably be more critical of those responsible for making the investments, if their payouts depended on the performance. Instead taxpayers will end up making up most of the shortfalls.

Which is cool and all, but PERS was written into the contracts and it violates a bunch of laws, state and federal, to modify a employment package like that. It really isn't an issue of liking it or not or thinking 'we' are getting ripped off or whatever at this point. PERS is a legal obligation and needs to be funded. Not the employees fault that the legislators lack the fortitude to do the hard work

And no, I am not a PERS recipients, no one in my family is with the exception of my buddy that is a retired LEO. Odd how I don't hear anyone calling folks like him names for wanting to be paid what he's owed

 

[arakboss]

Which is cool and all, but PERS was written into the contracts and it violates a bunch of laws, state and federal, to modify a employment package like that. It really isn't an issue of liking it or not or thinking 'we' are getting ripped off or whatever at this point. PERS is a legal obligation and needs to be funded. Not the employees fault that the legislators lack the fortitude to do the hard work

And no, I am not a PERS recipients, no one in my family is with the exception of my buddy that is a retired LEO. Odd how I don't hear anyone calling folks like him names for wanting to be paid what he's owed

As I said the problem is the guaranteed payouts, it was doomed from the very beginning.

 

[VinnieBoomBah]

As I said the problem is the guaranteed payouts, it was doomed from the very beginning.

It probably would have been fine if not for the recession, I have heard a couple versions but from how I understand things, leading up to the recession (like 2002 to early 2027) fund managers here and in CA saw the huge returns some stocks were getting and got greedy, they shifted the bulk of the PERS funds into stocks and investments that crashed 2008 - 2011. I did see one model that showed that if they had switched to a 'short' position in 2006/2007 the fund would have been set for years!
But I guess you needed to be in a special club to get that memo

 

[CLT65]

I knew a couple on tier 1 PERS. They retired in their late 50's as I recall, 20-some years ago. They were both public school employees. I remember them saying they had to retire then, to get their full tier 1 benefits, and they were bringing in more than they ever did working. I see them in new cars every couple years.

I don't blame them at all. The system was a terrible scandal, but I can't blame the individuals.

 

[Bobbygun]

I knew a couple on tier 1 PERS. They retired in their late 50's as I recall, 20-some years ago. They were both public school employees. I remember them saying they had to retire then, to get their full tier 1 benefits, and they were bringing in more than they ever did working. I see them in new cars every couple years.

I don't blame them at all. The system was a terrible scandal, but I can't blame the individuals.

Strongly agree. My buddy is doing well on Tier 1 but lives a very frugal life. He has many grandkids and enjoys helping them out financially when they need it. He also often tells me he didn't make much money as a teacher back then either. PERS was a good reason to stay in the profession.

 

[Provincial]

I have a saying:

"Don't get mad at the dog for getting into the garbage. Get mad at who left the garbage where the dog could get into it."

The real problem is that one political party pushed allowing public employees to unionize, and once that was accomplished, the unions extracted money from the member to use for political donations to the party that pushed the retirement scams through the system. The unions and their political accomplices expected that the taxpayers would have to make up the difference in the future. When that time came, the pushback was too strong, and that is why we have the later Tiers.

In effect, the Tier 1 recipients get their higher payments at the expense of the later participants, stealing from their futures. The unions blame the voters for this, in order to deflect responsibility.

The payoff to the unions was "perfectly legal" under legal examination, but in reality it was "quid pro quo" payoff by legislators and elected officials who depended on the financial support of the unions (and the votes of many of the union members) since they needed the money to attract the votes of the general public.

There was an element of the Big Lie involved. At the time the system was proposed, the word was that "only a few persons will qualify for the better plan." In fact, a very large number qualified.

 

[CLT65]

The payoff to the unions was "perfectly legal" under legal examination, but in reality it was "quid pro quo" payoff by legislators and elected officials who depended on the financial support of the unions (and the votes of many of the union members) since they needed the money to attract the votes of the general public.

I have a longtime friend who's a state worker and heavily involved in his union, who bragged after the previous election that they had spent more money on Kotek than they had ever spent on any whole election in the past. He said that they were solely responsible for getting her elected, and because of that, she owed them big raises. Not trying to make a political statement here, just repeating what he told me very matter-of-fact.

 

[jbett98]

i know a couple of Oregon State employees that retired early when they were closing the Title 1 PERS pension plan.
They immediately came back to work as sub contract employees for the remainder of their careers.

 

[arakboss]

What rate of deflation are you expecting to see in the next few years?

I am pessimistic and expect none and more likely continued inflation. Hope I am wrong.


This writer is even more pessimistic than I am.

"People want grocery prices to get down to pre-COVID levels, and that's just not going to happen," he said. "Deflation is not something that we want."

Kalaitzandonakes agrees that the White House has little power to get food prices down swiftly.

But presidents can encourage policies that help tame grocery price inflation over the longer term, she said, like increasing competition and investing in infrastructure, agricultural technology and crops that are resistant to pests and extreme weather.

"Lowering food prices is not great," Kalaitzandonakes said. "What we would want to think about instead is, is your income keeping pace with your bills versus is your bill at the grocery store coming down."
Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pb...kely-wont-see-lower-grocery-bills-under-trump

 

[Camelfilter]

...

What rate of deflation are you expecting to see in the next few years?

I am pessimistic and expect none and more likely continued inflation. Hope I am wrong.


This writer is even more pessimistic than I am.

"People want grocery prices to get down to pre-COVID levels, and that's just not going to happen," he said. "Deflation is not something that we want."

Kalaitzandonakes agrees that the White House has little power to get food prices down swiftly.

But presidents can encourage policies that help tame grocery price inflation over the longer term, she said, like increasing competition and investing in infrastructure, agricultural technology and crops that are resistant to pests and extreme weather.

"Lowering food prices is not great," Kalaitzandonakes said. "What we would want to think about instead is, is your income keeping pace with your bills versus is your bill at the grocery store coming down."
Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pb...kely-wont-see-lower-grocery-bills-under-trump

Governments are not great at keeping incomes in pace with inflation...

 

[arakboss]

...

Governments are not great at keeping incomes in pace with inflation...

Unfortunately lots of people are stuck with rather stagnant incomes. I would like to see the promise of lower prices come to fruition, I am just not convinced yet that they will.

"Prices will come down and come down dramatically and come down fast,"

Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/08/20/business/trump-inflation-prices-deflation

 

[Member 24198]

...

Governments are not great at keeping incomes in pace with inflation...

They keep their own incomes inflated.

 

[Certaindeaf]

...

Governments are not great at keeping incomes in pace with inflation...

Government should gtfo of 95% of whatever it's doing.

 

[arakboss]

Has the tit for tat already begun?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/china-cuts-tax-rebate-on-select-export-products-global-metal-stocks-in-focus-12869214.html/amp

 

[Mikej]

Has the tit for tat already begun?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/china-cuts-tax-rebate-on-select-export-products-global-metal-stocks-in-focus-12869214.html/amp

Multnomah County used to have an aluminum plant out in Troutdale. Very close to an excellent, economical, electricity supply. They threw that away.
YAY....

 

[jbett98]

They sent the power to California. Reynolds Aluminum's fate was sealed as Russian aluminum was cheaper by then.

 

[Nick Burkhardt]

 

[arakboss]

How can we as a country make living expenses affordable again for the working poor? Housing cost are insane and just about everything else is crazy elevated as well.

 

[Certaindeaf]

How can we as a country make living expenses affordable again for the working poor? Housing cost are insane and just about everything else is crazy elevated as well.

Stop paying for the twenty million illegals that crossed our border in the last four years.

 

[Member 45541]

Stop paying for the twenty million illegals that crossed our border in the last four years.

Beat me to it!