On the inflation front ...

[CamoDeafie]

K, so how much "deflation" will happen, if any? SSA COLA says 2.5% up for people getting SS benefits for 2025

 

[monkeybutler]

K, so how much "deflation" will happen, if any? SSA COLA says 2.5% up for people getting SS benefits for 2025

We won't see much deflation when the Trump tariff bonanza starts. Unless your income is 95th percentile+, you gonna feel it real good.

 

[made in china]

We won't see much deflation when the Trump tariff bonanza starts. Unless your income is 95th percentile+, you gonna feel it real good.

Due to our decades long reliance on importing things.
My opinion, when bad things happen globally, war, pandemic, etc, we really are exposed to our own lack of manufacturing. For some reason, a lot of people intentionally deny, downplay or ignore that fact. I think it's a bigger issue than the strength of our military.

 

[Provincial]

One thing that is (probably intentionally) not mentioned is that when we stop making things here and buy it from elsewhere, we become victims of exchange rates. In other words, if we inflate our currency, our suppliers raise their prices to compensate for the weaker dollar.

If we made the stuff here, the relative price of the item will stay pretty much the same, because the costs will all be in dollars. If we buy it overseas, the seller will raise the price in their currency, and the exchange rate will make it worse.

To address MIC's point, look at how badly the sanctions are hurting Russia, and they are much more self-sufficient than we are!

 

[Mikej]

I would trust that a smart man like President Trump, (God it feels good to type that!) would enlist many very smart people to think the tariff situation out well before hand. Unlike the boobs for the last 4 years just doing it with out forethought.

 

[monkeybutler]

Due to our decades long reliance on importing things.
My opinion, when bad things happen globally, war, pandemic, etc, we really are exposed to our own lack of manufacturing. For some reason, a lot of people intentionally deny, downplay or ignore that fact. I think it's a bigger issue than the strength of our military.

I agree, fully. Not just manufacturing but dependence on others for various commodities, like lithium, and consumer goods.

 

[monkeybutler]

I would trust that a smart man like President Trump, (God it feels good to type that!) would enlist many very smart people to think the tariff situation out well before hand. Unlike the boobs for the last 4 years just doing it with out forethought.

Trump is going to appoint loyalists, regardless of technical qualifications.

E.g., RFKtard as overlord of the Ministry of Health. The guy is worried about his precious boldily fluids being tainted by flouride, fer chrissakes.

 

[arakboss]

Our rates don't seem too bad in comparison.

Russia Faces a Wave of Bankruptcies as Borrowing Costs Skyrocket - The Moscow Times

Russian businesses are bracing themselves for a financial crunch that could put many of them out of business.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Barefootdog]

US should flood the world market with crude oil and gas.....cut Russian and Iranian income.

Diplomacy via blunt force trauma...

 

[NeoBlackdog]

US should flood the world market with crude oil and gas.....cut Russian and Iranian income.

Diplomacy via blunt force trauma...

After we refill our Strategic Oil Reserves and get the military a bit more on it's feet.

 

[arakboss]

US should flood the world market with crude oil and gas.....cut Russian and Iranian income.

Diplomacy via blunt force trauma...

OPEC may do that for us.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/13/oil-could-plunge-to-40-in-2025-if-opec-unwinds-voluntary-production-cuts-analysts-say.html

 

[arakboss]

Hopefully we can get rid of The Jones Act of 1920.

https://epic.uchicago.edu/insights/impacts-of-the-jones-act-on-u-s-petroleum-markets/#:~:text=The%20Jones%20Act%20of%201920,U.S.%20built%2C%20owned%20and%20crewed.

 

[Provincial]

Hopefully we can get rid of The Jones Act of 1920.

https://epic.uchicago.edu/insights/impacts-of-the-jones-act-on-u-s-petroleum-markets/#:~:text=The%20Jones%20Act%20of%201920,U.S.%20built%2C%20owned%20and%20crewed.

The Jones Act had good intentions, but time has passed it by. Perhaps keeping American crews, and letting vessels be purchased from overseas and other adjustments.

 

[arakboss]

The Jones Act had good intentions, but time has passed it by. Perhaps keeping American crews, and letting vessels be purchased from overseas and other adjustments.

If we are to have energy independence in this country, the east coast shouldn't be buying energy from across the Atlantic. The Gulf Coast could be shipping that product to the east coast instead of exporting it. This will become more relevant when we start applying tariffs to petroleum imports and other countries start applying tariffs on our exported petroleum products.

 

[Provincial]

For more information on the Jones Act and its consequences, check out the What's Going on in Shipping website. Here is a link to a search I did for the Jones Act there, which shows many videos:

https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping/search?query=Jones Act

 

[arakboss]

Oregon School districts, employees face $670 million increase in payments to public pension system • Oregon Capital Chronicle

Increased costs for schools to the Public Employee Retirement System could more than erase the governor’s proposed boost to school funding.

oregoncapitalchronicle.com

PERS

 

[arakboss]

Can you say deflation....

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/14/heres-the-deflation-breakdown-for-october-2024-in-one-chart.html

 

[VinnieBoomBah]

 

[Bobbygun]

View attachment 1984481

My wife works at an elementary school and is on PERS. My main hunting buddy is a retired teacher on PERS TIER 1. I don't blame them. Other than they both belong/belonged to the union. The unions and the non-arms-length negotiations with the government, that was a problem. Those folks on TIER 1 with the "if the market gains 20%, you get 20%, but if it loses 20%, you only get 10%" (not the actual figures, but I'm too lazy to look it up) agreement. What kind of an idiot would agree to that? My buddy told me how much he had in his PERS account when he retired in his 50's, how they doubled that at retirement, and how much he gets monthly. I ran some quick calculations and told him, "The taxpayers needed you to die five years ago to break even". His response, "What would that matter? When I die, my wife gets it until she dies." The math just doesn't work on that program. It doesn't even pass the sniff test. My wife's plan? She's on the low end of the totem pole and is looking at chump change.

 

[arakboss]

My wife works at an elementary school and is on PERS. My main hunting buddy is a retired teacher on PERS TIER 1. I don't blame them. Other than they both belong/belonged to the union. The unions and the non-arms-length negotiations with the government, that was a problem. Those folks on TIER 1 with the "if the market gains 20%, you get 20%, but if it loses 20%, you only get 10%" (not the actual figures, but I'm too lazy to look it up) agreement. What kind of an idiot would agree to that? My buddy told me how much he had in his PERS account when he retired in his 50's, how they doubled that at retirement, and how much he gets monthly. I ran some quick calculations and told him, "The taxpayers needed you to die five years ago to break even". His response, "What would that matter? When I die, my wife gets it until she dies." The math just doesn't work on that program. It doesn't even pass the sniff test. My wife's plan? She's on the low end of the totem pole and is looking at chump change.

The main problem is the guaranteed payouts. Investments don't make guaranteed gains. The payouts should not have been guaranteed either. The beneficiaries would probably be more critical of those responsible for making the investments, if their payouts depended on the performance. Instead taxpayers will end up making up most of the shortfalls.