Manufactured "shortage" by the manufacturers.. So about that "shortage"

[OldBroad44]

Thanks!

Were you there?

No. I just looked it up for ya. Big universities usually professionally record the ceremonies.

 

[arakboss]

Another plus for higher ammo prices is, that less hoarders will be adding to their collections. That should make it easier for the rest of the buyers to find what they want.

And higher retail prices might lead buyers to seek out more private party deals. Here is one example of a good deal offered by @Richo877

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www.northwestfirearms.com

 

[CamoDeafie]

Seems... clickbait/fake news re ammo "shortage"?

 

[solv3nt]

Right. And the inflation rate is much higher than the government claims.

Just out of curiosity, how is the inflation rate higher than government claims? The inflation rate is a benchmark of a cross section of the market. It is not supposed to be all inclusive.

 

[CamoDeafie]

Just out of curiosity, how is the inflation rate higher than government claims? The inflation rate is a benchmark of a cross section of the market. It is not supposed to be all inclusive.

Which Inflation Rates? Seems Federal Reserve talks about two distinct rates; Consumer Price Index(CPI) (what we see reported most of the time) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). PCE seems half the CPI in percentage points, but remember, CPI only tracks specific things, while PCE tracks other things.

However.. "real world" inflation rate.. is what we're spending things on compared to last year or 6 months prior... and it can range from 10% higher prices all the way to 100+% higher prices depending on the items and services.

What is inflation and how does the Federal Reserve evaluate changes in the rate of inflation?

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

www.federalreserve.gov

 

[solv3nt]

Which Inflation Rates? Seems Federal Reserve talks about two distinct rates; Consumer Price Index(CPI) (what we see reported most of the time) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). PCE seems half the CPI in percentage points, but remember, CPI only tracks specific things, while PCE tracks other things.

However.. "real world" inflation rate.. is what we're spending things on compared to last year or 6 months prior... and it can range from 10% higher prices all the way to 100+% higher prices depending on the items and services.

What is inflation and how does the Federal Reserve evaluate changes in the rate of inflation?

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

www.federalreserve.gov

Yes, the CPI is often touted as the inflation rate and the government is lying to us, blah, blah ,blah. But it's an index, similar to the S&P500 or NASDAQ.

 

[CamoDeafie]

Yes, the CPI is often touted as the inflation rate and the government is lying to us, blah, blah ,blah. But it's an index, similar to the S&P500 or NASDAQ.

The funny thing is that CPI is based on surveys of about 24,000 American consumers for a given set of goods/services and they don't include Medicare/Medicaid prices and a few other things.. while PCE uses what companies provide for price data from other goods and services... CPI is run by Dept of Labor, PCE is run by Dept of Commerce

 

[OldBroad44]

Just out of curiosity, how is the inflation rate higher than government claims? The inflation rate is a benchmark of a cross section of the market. It is not supposed to be all inclusive.

Well if you assume that inflation rate is a government figure only it can't be higher than what the gov'ment says. Speaking informally, by real inflation rate I mean what people actually experience. I certainly did not experience only 8% inflation last year. It was probably closer to 40%. And I'd guess most other people experienced something much more than 8%.

 

[solv3nt]

Well if you assume that inflation rate is a government figure only it can't be higher than what the gov'ment says. Speaking informally, by real inflation rate I mean what people actually experience. I certainly did not experience only 8% inflation last year. It was probably closer to 40%. And I'd guess most other people experienced something much more than 8%.

CPI is an index, so yes, what you see as inflation is going to be different. It's not that the government is "lying" to you.

 

[Flopsweat]

Well if you assume that inflation rate is a government figure only it can't be higher than what the gov'ment says. Speaking informally, by real inflation rate I mean what people actually experience. I certainly did not experience only 8% inflation last year. It was probably closer to 40%. And I'd guess most other people experienced something much more than 8%.

How did you calculate that? I used to keep a spreadsheet but I stopped that years ago.

 

[OldBroad44]

How did you calculate that? I used to keep a spreadsheet but I stopped that years ago.

Just guestimated. Did not record or calculate. Based mostly on the price of canned goods from Amazon. That's my major food expense. And major expense, since I don't drive anymore. I am guessing the price of the kind of canned goods I buy have gone up at least 50%. At least, I'm happy to buy items at 50% more than I used to pay. But won't buy at 2X more than I used to pay, which is sometimes the asking price. Cost of hiring an inexperienced field hand has gone from $12 to $15/hr, a 25% increase. Not including SS, which we also pay. Other costs associated with my plant breeding work have also increased by about that.

 

[Provincial]

Mark Twain attributed the famous quote to the real source:

"Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

The unreliability of statistics can be traced to those who choose the sources from which the statistics are determined. Another quote describes this: "Figures lie and liars figure."

It takes little research to discover that the Consumer Price Index has changed over the years, dropping some of the more volatile components, and calculating others in ways that minimize the effects of price increases. This is done by choosing a "basket" of goods and services, with "choosing" being the secret of controlling the outcome.

An example of this sort of "choice" would be to assume that consumers would choose an auto insurance policy with a larger deductible instead of keeping the same deductible figure. If auto repair/replacement costs went up 15% and an unchanged policy goes up by that amount, changing to a higher deductible would make the premium payment increase somewhat lower that the unchanged policy. These sort of changes have been made to the CPI for generations.

The CPI will not reflect inflation of items outside mass-market purchases, ostensibly because they are bought by so few people that it isn't worth tracking them. Almost anything hand-made or limited production has gone up in price at multiple the rate of the CPI.

The other way to fudge the numbers is to say, for instance, that a new car hasn't gone up in real cost as much as the price would indicate. They do this by pointing out that the new car has features that the earlier model lacked, like shutting off the engine at stop lights. This gives the excuse of saying that the consumer is buying a more expensive car, instead of an equal car. But equal cars are not sold!

 

[Flopsweat]

Mark Twain attributed the famous quote to the real source:

"Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

The unreliability of statistics can be traced to those who choose the sources from which the statistics are determined. Another quote describes this: "Figures lie and liars figure."

It takes little research to discover that the Consumer Price Index has changed over the years, dropping some of the more volatile components, and calculating others in ways that minimize the effects of price increases. This is done by choosing a "basket" of goods and services, with "choosing" being the secret of controlling the outcome.

An example of this sort of "choice" would be to assume that consumers would choose an auto insurance policy with a larger deductible instead of keeping the same deductible figure. If auto repair/replacement costs went up 15% and an unchanged policy goes up by that amount, changing to a higher deductible would make the premium payment increase somewhat lower that the unchanged policy. These sort of changes have been made to the CPI for generations.

The CPI will not reflect inflation of items outside mass-market purchases, ostensibly because they are bought by so few people that it isn't worth tracking them. Almost anything hand-made or limited production has gone up in price at multiple the rate of the CPI.

The other way to fudge the numbers is to say, for instance, that a new car hasn't gone up in real cost as much as the price would indicate. They do this by pointing out that the new car has features that the earlier model lacked, like shutting off the engine at stop lights. This gives the excuse of saying that the consumer is buying a more expensive car, instead of an equal car. But equal cars are not sold!

The way that unemployment (the number, not the benefits) is calculated by the federal government has changed several times. Never in a way that made it higher, though.

 

[edg6868]

There is no source to be true. I wouldn't doubt the model though..., Harley has been doing this for years. But I wouldn't be surprised either... not a comment or peep from ammo co's anywhere.

 

[The Heretic]

An Official Journal Of The NRA | The Keefe Report: Why You Can’t Find Ammo Right Now

World events have an unusual affect on people like us. You see the horrors that occurred in Israel, and the full-blown war going on in Ukraine and these things tell us to not only be prepared, but that we, personally, also probably need more ammunition. What did you do about it?

www.americanrifleman.org

 

[ScatPackLife]

Guns and gadgets is 100% click bait shill BS. Will not watch his crap.

If you can't make money legitimately, you gotta make money someone.

 

[ScatPackLife]

But he's not the only you tuber who has tried pushing this idea. Like a month or two ago MrGunsNGear was saying all the wholesale ammo was being bought up by some one faster than the retailers could get to it. But didn't know who. And speculated it would cause a price spike for n the near future. I was a little disappointed as I thought he was trustworthy but I don't trust people who think they have a crystal ball.

I haven't been seeing shortages. I even saw 44spl and 44mag at Sportsmans a few days ago at price lower than precovid. But 556/223 is still priced higher than it would be, I agree with that. I think it's because of the wars that the US GOV is currently, publicly funding.

I don't know about an intentional conspiracy to drive ammo prices up, but there is something fishy going on.

It sounds to me like people spreading false truth to try and cause a panic buy.

I tend to buy from the smaller US manufacturers, bulk from places like Freedom Munitions, and defensive ammo from places like Underwood.

 

[The Heretic]

But he's not the only you tuber who has tried pushing this idea. Like a month or two ago MrGunsNGear was saying all the wholesale ammo was being bought up by some one faster than the retailers could get to it. But didn't know who. And speculated it would cause a price spike for n the near future. I was a little disappointed as I thought he was trustworthy but I don't trust people who think they have a crystal ball.

I've seen hoarders who think they can flip their ammo for a profit in the past. Even at 2X the cost, not sure it is worth the effort/risk, and then when the supply catches up with demand, they seem to have gotten stuck with ammo they can't sell for their cost.

The best remedy is to buy cheap and stack deep while the prices are good and supply plentiful. Most of us have been thru this before, and the smart ones follow that advice, then sit back and watch those who didn't listen, bubblegum & moan & whine about the cost and shortages.

I haven't been seeing shortages. I even saw 44spl and 44mag at Sportsmans a few days ago at price lower than precovid. But 556/223 is still priced higher than it would be, I agree with that. I think it's because of the wars that the US GOV is currently, publicly funding.

Most people do not shoot as much revolver ammo as they do 5.56 or 7.62x39 or 9mm

I don't know about an intentional conspiracy to drive ammo prices up, but there is something fishy going on.

What is "international" is two concurrent wars with the USA supplying the ammo.

 

[ilikegunspdx]

Just a guess but they have been seeing prices spike and plunge and I would guess they are not flooding the market to make the current plunge much slower. If it all went in the shelves 9mm would be 14 cpr right now. Just a guess though. Slow decline in prices from trickling supply is better for them than big plunge. It is about profit after all.

 

[ScatPackLife]

I've seen hoarders who think they can flip their ammo for a profit in the past. Even at 2X the cost, not sure it is worth the effort/risk, and then when the supply catches up with demand, they seem to have gotten stuck with ammo they can't sell for their cost.

The best remedy is to buy cheap and stack deep while the prices are good and supply plentiful. Most of us have been thru this before, and the smart ones follow that advice, then sit back and watch those who didn't listen, bubblegum & moan & whine about the cost and shortages.

I've seen the second hand, marked up, ammo classifieds when there are shortages. But I don't buy used ammo, or I should say "second hand ammo", from classifieds (with 480 Ruger being the one exception because it can be hard to find), only new from a retailers. I typically buy bulk and have not had to pay high prices.

Most people do not shoot as much revolver ammo as they do 5.56 or 7.62x39 or 9mm

Manufacturers also don't make as much revolver ammo as they do said calibers. I haven't seen a stack of 44 on the shelves like that since before covid.

What is "international" is two concurrent wars with the USA supplying the ammo.

Indeed!

What a $h!t world we live in. Next time I move, I'm moving to Mars.