Firearm sales declining?

[OrPackrat]

I'll give a little background basically.

I spend basically 1 day a week at my favorite FFL helping them out. It's one of my favorite places to be, learn more about firearms and handle so many to find what I like and don't like, and meet new people... I've found a lot of new additions to my collection by getting to be around so many...

The shop operates on the bare minimums, basically a volume shop for sales rather than high markups... As such, there is a daily sales goal just keep everything going, lights on and employees employed. I see the sales on the days I'm there or hear about them during the week.

I've mentioned the place and recommended it many times it's on the coast in Oregon, in these background times, they do everything they can to get you approved same day.


To the original point, for the last few months, it's been very slow for sales, that daily number, which isn't much, is getting harder and harder to reach, sales are falling more and more. Sure, sales were amazing last November/December and even January but these last couple months it's been very slow...

I suspect it's the economy, inflation, all those things making everything cost more and cutting people hobby or sport budgets, but also we do get people in who ask what they can buy with 114 being in place, which for the time being, it's not...

Has anyone else noticed sales dropping off? I know many shops have shut down even with the initial 114 threat last year.

I'm just worried about my favorite FFL being forced to close not from all these new laws trying to be passed but just lack of sales.



Given their markup rates, and things I want personally, and since I hate paying full price, I've helped setup this Sporting Goods store as a Dealer for another product line, as such they have the best priced home freeze dryers in the State/Country given their markup rates rather than normal rates...

My writing is probably not the best, things on my mind early in the morning while I prep to drive over to the shop and help for another day, pickup some equipment, and probably end the day pulling weeds and clearing some land while I'm out there.

I guess I'm just worried about my favorite shop, my favorite hang out spot which grew from my grandfather as it was his favorite place, potentially not being able to make it with the month over month decline in sales...

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[arakboss]

I'll give a little background basically.

I spend basically 1 day a week at my favorite FFL helping them out. It's one of my favorite places to be, learn more about firearms and handle so many to find what I like and don't like, and meet new people... I've found a lot of new additions to my collection by getting to be around so many...

The shop operates on the bare minimums, basically a volume shop for sales rather than high markups... As such, there is a daily sales goal just keep everything going, lights on and employees employed. I see the sales on the days I'm there or hear about them during the week.

I've mentioned the place and recommended it many times it's on the coast in Oregon, in these background times, they do everything they can to get you approved same day.


To the original point, for the last few months, it's been very slow for sales, that daily number, which isn't much, is getting harder and harder to reach, sales are falling more and more. Sure, sales were amazing last November/December and even January but these last couple months it's been very slow...

I suspect it's the economy, inflation, all those things making everything cost more and cutting people hobby or sport budgets, but also we do get people in who ask what they can buy with 114 being in place, which for the time being, it's not...

Has anyone else noticed sales dropping off? I know many shops have shut down even with the initial 114 threat last year.

I'm just worried about my favorite FFL being forced to close not from all these new laws trying to be passed but just lack of sales.



Given their markup rates, and things I want personally, and since I hate paying full price, I've helped setup this Sporting Goods store as a Dealer for another product line, as such they have the best priced home freeze dryers in the State/Country given their markup rates rather than normal rates...

My writing is probably not the best, things on my mind early in the morning while I prep to drive over to the shop and help for another day, pickup some equipment, and probably end the day pulling weeds and clearing some land while I'm out there.

I guess I'm just worried about my favorite shop, my favorite hang out spot which grew from my grandfather as it was his favorite place, potentially not being able to make it with the month over month decline in sales...

I am in the a similiar situation as you and the gun sales have been very slow, transfers have been better but slow as well. I am trying to convince the FFL to add services, products, lower prices, etc but change is hard sometimes. Lot's of people are wanting to borrow money though and people wanting to dump their guns is still relatively high.

 

[aasbra]

I suspect lots of sales "pulled forward" due to concerns around 114 in Oregon. Stimulus funds being spent. Inflation taking a bite out of people's discretionary spending. People asking high prices for stuff, despite declining demand. Concern over the potential for a slowing economy. Lacking availability of inventory the last couple of years. And the waiting/uncertainty for many folks who don't get an instant approval when filling out a 4473 the last 6 months.

All of these are factors that I view as likely contributing to the trend you recognize.

 

[TTSX]

I was at my favorite gun shop yesterday for a couple hours and saw one sale from the shelf, a pair of transfers from a trade completed and one new transfer started. I've noticed from a customer's perspective that things are slowing down as well and I share your concerns about them keeping the lights on. Fortunately, the shop owner is a smart man and I'm sure he's using the 114 windfall to average out the feast/famine cycle

 

[arakboss]

I suspect lots of sales "pulled forward" due to concerns around 114 in Oregon. Stimulus funds being spent. Inflation taking a bite out of people's discretionary spending. People asking high prices for stuff, despite declining demand. Concern over the potential for a slowing economy. Lacking availability of inventory the last couple of years. And the waiting/uncertainty for many folks who don't get an instant approval when filling out a 4473 the last 6 months.

All of these are factors that I view as likely contributing to the trend you recognize.

I agree, all of those issues are current headwinds. If antis look like they could pull off anti wave in 2024 that might spur another gun buying spree.

 

[OrPackrat]

I want to get a mini-bike for the wife and I to get her more into the outdoor, prices of those have soared lately, so I am looking to set him up as a Dealer if possible.

I want to see how much they really cost and then buy them at a small shop, pay less than the big box stores of course, and have a place to say hey, want one at the best price anywhere, visit this shop...

Of course I'm looking for stuff myself first, but added bit, it's something to help with sales and keeps them in business, I'm doing what I can to help.

I'm tempted to see if I can donate freeze dried candy to include as free items with every firearm purchase as a little boost or an added incentive...Get the gun you want and have something the kids will enjoy (I hear tictok blew up with freeze dried candies for a bit).

I have a lot of self interest going there, I looked at the SDI school, I've gained more knowledge spending 1 day a week at the store than their courses offer as well as volunteering at the Range I'm a member of learning from the old guys...

Saves me 10-20k in those school fees, sure I don't get the certificate but I have real world experience.

 

[oremike]

I can't speak to gun sales as I'm an ammo manufacturer but can say that my backlog is dropping but I'm still a long ways from catching up. There is an ebb and flow and it's probably a good idea to diversify a bit as in go from a guns only store to more of a sporting good store. Right now the weather is getting nicer and after being cooped up for a couple years people are going outside to play. I think Trout season is about to open and then warm water fishing will be getting better as the water warms up. I'd look to light, worm on a bobber type gear.

Edited to add: sell fishing licenses and off road permits.

 

[OrPackrat]

I was at my favorite gun shop yesterday for a couple hours and saw one sale from the shelf, a pair of transfers from a trade completed and one new transfer started. I've noticed from a customer's perspective that things are slowing down as well and I share your concerns about them keeping the lights on. Fortunately, the shop owner is a smart man and I'm sure he's using the 114 windfall to average out the feast/famine cycle

There was a couple months where daily sales were 150-200% of the daily target but the last couple months of 3 days a week only getting 50-75% of that daily sales goal, the feast is running out...

 

[oremike]

Just a general observation about businesses on the coast. With the decline of the timber and fishing industries businesses have become more tourist oriented. That means they need to make their years worth of money in basically the 3 months of summer. Gone are the days where a logging company owner will give all their crew a new gun as a Christmas bonus or a Crab boat Captain will reward his crew at the end of the season for a job well done.

 

[ktgee]

In my opinion, since the pandemic, I've been stocking up on ammo big time because of the shortages. Last year and this year, I maxed out my budget on guns because of 114.
Many people already have their guns and buying a new one is compulsive. Many are not in need of another gun unless they have the money to blow. Firearms are just one hobby of many.
Buying a gun is not cheap. Even if you bought a gun for 300.00. It doesn't end there. You will need ammo, accessories, and extra magazines. That one gun purchase can easily becomes a 5 to 600.00 investment.

 

[gmerkt]

Business in general is of a cyclical nature. That's why some gun manufacturers in the past have switched to making bicycles (or whatever) until their gun market came back. If they survived at all. As others have said above, a supplementary angle needs to be found to bridge the gap in revenue. Pawnbroker, maybe? Which requires a lot of knowledge beyond the firearms biz. It needs to be something viable within the limits of your geographical location.

I'm going to be a downer here. It's only my opinion, but the way the laws are going it seems to me that being a gun dealer has a limited future.

The other thing is, the frenetic trade of the past few months (years?) cannot be expected to endure. Market saturation and exhaustion are inevitable after big booms. That's the other side of the cycle.

 

[Longwalkhome]

Lived through a few recessions and one depression (spotted owl) in my life. I remember when they screwed us with the OPEC gas shortages or embargo in 1973. Fact is our world is feast or famine because that's what makes the elite money. That's life.

It's my opinion that you can't trust the economy ever so you have to diversify if you are going to stay in retail. 80% of all small businesses fail and there are a lot of reasons for that.

Oregon is a bad place for small businesses, the state goes out of its way to crush them for political reasons. Times are getting difficult again so either folks will move out of Oregon to make good money or learn how to hustle in a broken economy.

Pawn shops will really buy a lot of things as economies crash, those guys hustle.

Anyway if you are going to do retail you have to live in a populated area where there are good jobs and people who want to buy your goods. That's my opinion.

 

[gmerkt]

Buying a gun is not cheap. Even if you bought a gun for 300.00. It doesn't end there.

Amen and can I get a Hallelujah.

Many people already have their guns

If you look at the statistics, the trend of interest in firearms purchasing is downward. The burst of buying by newbies in 2020 as a knee jerk response to civil commotion was an outlier. Lots of firearms sales are to people who already own who knows how many. For all appearances, the next generation isn't going to have this same fascination. Even if it continues to be viable by law. None of this bodes well for business.

Successful business angles only last so long, none is permanent. Because of the nature of change. Which is occurring around us all the time. When a good business model is found, it's only a matter of time before something screws it up and another model needs to be found. Competition, regulation, natural disaster, lack of product, demographics, you name it.

 

[ZA_Survivalist]

I think this is just the cooldown.
People think 114 was completely halted and many don't realize what the nefarious politicians in Salem are attempting to do.. I also think many are not following what just took place in Washington. I think people feel "safe" so they've stopped prioritizing their purchases.

I fully realize Oregon will attempt another massive anti gun campaign if this current political session gets halted and 114 gets tossed.
I purchased quite a few pistols over the last few months and have 1-2 big rifle purchases left. I spent nearly 1k on various magazines alone in December.. this is the time to stack up on mags and firearms.. the "cool down" is when many of us who have seen these political trends typically continue to stack away.

The next surge will be when the less engaged figure out what Oregon is attempting to do. If it wasn't for the forum and OFF I too would not know what's going on behind closed doors in Salem.. and those filthy anti gun politicians want it that way. Otherwise they'd face massive opposition from Oregon residents.

Long story short.. I think people are just doing what they did after 08, 2012, 2016, covid and when 114 was "voted on".. they relaxed and assumed they got what they needed and now are backing off on firearms as a purchase priority.

 

[nwslopoke]

I was at my favorite gun shop yesterday for a couple hours and saw one sale from the shelf, a pair of transfers from a trade completed and one new transfer started. I've noticed from a customer's perspective that things are slowing down as well and I share your concerns about them keeping the lights on. Fortunately, the shop owner is a smart man and I'm sure he's using the 114 windfall to average out the feast/famine cycle

I second that theory. That owners understood what was happening. The rug would surely get pulled out whether 114 stalled or not. Those 1-2-3 guns bought now was going to be it for a good while.

I used to buy 1 to 3 guns a year. Outside of Sportsman's or local shop while traveling, I haven't been actively shopping since before 114. I do still do a bit with accessories since I'm not buying more. But unfortunately most shops don't keep much on hand.

 

[ilikegunspdx]

I'll give a little background basically.

I spend basically 1 day a week at my favorite FFL helping them out. It's one of my favorite places to be, learn more about firearms and handle so many to find what I like and don't like, and meet new people... I've found a lot of new additions to my collection by getting to be around so many...

The shop operates on the bare minimums, basically a volume shop for sales rather than high markups... As such, there is a daily sales goal just keep everything going, lights on and employees employed. I see the sales on the days I'm there or hear about them during the week.

I've mentioned the place and recommended it many times it's on the coast in Oregon, in these background times, they do everything they can to get you approved same day.


To the original point, for the last few months, it's been very slow for sales, that daily number, which isn't much, is getting harder and harder to reach, sales are falling more and more. Sure, sales were amazing last November/December and even January but these last couple months it's been very slow...

I suspect it's the economy, inflation, all those things making everything cost more and cutting people hobby or sport budgets, but also we do get people in who ask what they can buy with 114 being in place, which for the time being, it's not...

Has anyone else noticed sales dropping off? I know many shops have shut down even with the initial 114 threat last year.

I'm just worried about my favorite FFL being forced to close not from all these new laws trying to be passed but just lack of sales.



Given their markup rates, and things I want personally, and since I hate paying full price, I've helped setup this Sporting Goods store as a Dealer for another product line, as such they have the best priced home freeze dryers in the State/Country given their markup rates rather than normal rates...

My writing is probably not the best, things on my mind early in the morning while I prep to drive over to the shop and help for another day, pickup some equipment, and probably end the day pulling weeds and clearing some land while I'm out there.

I guess I'm just worried about my favorite shop, my favorite hang out spot which grew from my grandfather as it was his favorite place, potentially not being able to make it with the month over month decline in sales...

In Or this is hardly a surprise Imo. Starting June 2022, we had notice of m114. Then m114 passed which caused massive panic buy. Then m114 was enjoined, which gave people an "extra chance" which created another panic buy. During this series of panic buys people bought a lot of guns. There is no way people would keep buying at that same rate, especially now that ppl got a lot (or all) of the guns they thought they needed.

 

[CamoDeafie]

Inflation. Supply problems (certain inventory never being available for shops); smaller tax returns/refunds; children's summer programs, end of school year bills (college usually); layoffs/job losses; the Legislature, lawsuits, higher credit interest rates; yeah.. a storm of economic disasters all coming together.

Edit. It's not just firearms sales, not just ammo sales, but it seems also the resale economy too, with too many people trying to get rid of so much stuff as well, my brother's resale business has been taking a bit of a hit in the last few months, he's still in the black but the margins are getting smaller.

 

[vanlab]

I build camper vans, upfit, install electrical systems for a living, let me tell you....sales and interest have dropped significantly this year.

 

[ilikegunspdx]

Now that demand has dropped there will probably be some good deals out there. I was surprised to see new 1911 A1s for $309 this morning. I don't recall seeing them for that low before.

 

[RX-79G]

Didn't Oregon just have a pre-ban mad buying spree? Aren't a lot of guns no longer legal to purchase?