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This is a great paper by economist Steven Levitt (Distinguished Service Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago, co-author of Freakonomics, John Bates Clark Medal recipient) where he looks for explanations for the sharp drop in crime in the United States from 1991-2001. He examines ten factors to determine how well they (statistically) explain the drop, including the strong 90's economy, advances in policing strategies, gun laws (two types), capital punishment, number of police, larger prison populations, the decline of crack cocaine, and legalized abortion.
His conclusion (table 5 if you want the quick summary) is that increases in police force size and prison population, the decline of crack, and legalized abortion could explain almost all of the observed drop in crime, and that economic factors, capital punishment, and new police strategies also played a role (an extremely small one). Gun laws (both types) accounted for 0.00% of the observed effect.
Published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 18, Number 1, Winter 2004
http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf
His conclusion (table 5 if you want the quick summary) is that increases in police force size and prison population, the decline of crack, and legalized abortion could explain almost all of the observed drop in crime, and that economic factors, capital punishment, and new police strategies also played a role (an extremely small one). Gun laws (both types) accounted for 0.00% of the observed effect.
Published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 18, Number 1, Winter 2004
http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf