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I cant believe I am saying this being an Okie, but I have to vote Texas. They have everything they need there. Then I think Oklahoma, Louisiana, Missouri will join them before any of them give up thier weapons.
As a fellow Okie expat, I wouldn't be surprised a bit to see Texas eventually fall. It's all a matter of shifting population trends.
Oklahoma might be one of the last holdouts, if it comes to that, along with Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, and Montana. With the NY/MA immigration into VT and NH, I see them going the same way CO and maybe OR are with the Californians influencing everything.