Recession Watch 2024.

[arakboss]

I have been waiting for the predicted recession to arrive but the country seems to just keep chugging along. Did we dodge the bullet on this one or is it coming in the new year? Stock Markets don't seem too worried about it. People don't seem to be cutting back much on retail spending, eating out at restaurants or driving.

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[Certaindeaf]

 

[arakboss]

After watching that, I am thinking I should be paid in packets of Ramen instead of bank notes.

 

[monkeybutler]

Stop reading/listening to fear bait.

That will start to mitigate the delta between your impressions and reality.

Then work on reducing the chicken little style panics.

 

[Alexx1401]

I have been waiting for the predicted recession to arrive but the country seems to just keep chugging along. Did we dodge the bullet on this one or is it coming in the new year? Stock Markets don't seem too worried about it. People don't seem to be cutting back much on retail spending, eating out at restaurants or driving.

There is no way we can print money at this pace forever. A LOT of people want to pretend this is fine. Many of them get real angry when you point out that this will have to re set because they do know in the back on their mind that this can not go on forever. You can keep kicking that can down the road but at some time things will have to correct. As to when? No one really knows. So all you can do is live your life ready for the correction you know is going to come some day.

 

[Jay Walk]

Prep but live life one day at a time and do your best to enjoy the good times while they last.

 

[GrayGoose]

You can keep kicking that can down the road but at some time things will have to correct.

Yep! And the longer they keep kicking that can down the road, the harder it will be when the hammer finally drops.

 

[arakboss]

Recession outlook: 'Very high' odds of downturn amid job, spending risks

"Is it possible the Fed cuts rates very dramatically? Yes. But that's only going to happen or most likely going to happen if there's a recession."

www.businessinsider.com

The deals may get better if a recession finally materializes. Keep some powder dry.

 

[Provincial]

In an inflationary economy, cash loses value. Holding it is penalized. Government benefits from inflation in many ways, some very subtle, so it prefers inflation. The Federal Reserve is quite open about targeting a moderate inflation rate. The real cost of government borrowing is reduced because it is being paid back in less valuable dollars.

Deflation, where prices and wages drop, is an anathema to government, and it avoids it at almost any cost. Cash becomes more valuable, because it buys more. The real cost of government borrowing increases because it is paying it back in more valuable dollars.

The most likely event is a recession with at least some inflation. In that event, cash isn't losing much value, and it gives the purchaser and edge in negotiations, especially when the seller is in distress. Good deals happen often during recessions, and people sometimes let loose of desirable items that they would otherwise never sell.

 

[arakboss]

In an inflationary economy, cash loses value. Holding it is penalized. Government benefits from inflation in many ways, some very subtle, so it prefers inflation. The Federal Reserve is quite open about targeting a moderate inflation rate. The real cost of government borrowing is reduced because it is being paid back in less valuable dollars.

Deflation, where prices and wages drop, is an anathema to government, and it avoids it at almost any cost. Cash becomes more valuable, because it buys more. The real cost of government borrowing increases because it is paying it back in more valuable dollars.

The most likely event is a recession with at least some inflation. In that event, cash isn't losing much value, and it gives the purchaser and edge in negotiations, especially when the seller is in distress. Good deals happen often during recessions, and people sometimes let loose of desirable items that they would otherwise never sell.

Regardless of whether we go into a recession or not, I am trying to tell myself the deals will get better or stay about the same. It is hard to see a situation were gun prices move up significantly. We already have gun grabbers in power, so November elections shouldn't drive prices up.

If antis lose power in November and layoffs continue, we are likely going to see a glut fest of firearms and ridiculously good deals.

About the only situation I could see driving prices up in the near future are mass riots or if the new civil war movie causes a bunch of people to believe that is likely to happen for real.
If Measure 114 and it's supporters could be put to bed permanently it would allow me to feel better about slowing purchases. If I get laid off from either of my two jobs that will certainly put a damper on my desire to buy.

For now deals are everywhere and will probably get better as the year progresses.

 

[Certaindeaf]

My recession watch is a stick in the mud.

 

[monkeybutler]

My recession watch is a stick in the mud.

That seems about right.

 

[arakboss]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/where-cracks-in-the-banking-sector-may-appear-without-more-ma.html

 

[JustShoot]

( ruler of thumb ) for Me what I look at.. For regional recession, the area you live in . If you pay attention to the Commercial Real Estate in your region/area of the US you are living. Pay attention to what % is unoccupied. When it gets up where there is 25% unoccupied 'just sitting' that is a REAL indicator that the region you are living in, is falling into Economic Recession.
.

 

[BMGMAN]

( ruler of thumb ) for Me what I look at.. For regional recession, the area you live in . If you pay attention to the Commercial Real Estate in your region/area of the US you are living. Pay attention to what % is unoccupied. When it gets up where there is 25% unoccupied 'just sitting' that is a REAL indicator that the region you are living in, is falling into Economic Recession.
.

National average is around 19%. This combined with credit card charges are what I watch. Bad things are on the horizon.

 

[The Heretic]

I have been waiting for the predicted recession to arrive but the country seems to just keep chugging along. Did we dodge the bullet on this one or is it coming in the new year? Stock Markets don't seem too worried about it. People don't seem to be cutting back much on retail spending, eating out at restaurants or driving.

For 3-4 years my IRAs did not do well. I am now back to where I was about 3 years ago, maybe a bit better. The last year my IRAs grew pretty fast to regain the peak they were at previously - the past 3-6 months especially. I hope this continues because I have started to pull a little bit from them each month to make up the difference between SS income and my bills - which is a difference of about $500/mo (mostly due to intermittent bills, such as car insurance every six months, doctor visits, car/house/etc. maintenance).

I have cut way back on eating out - used to do that about once a week or two - but partly because I was working and I would go to a restaurant with coworkers. Fuel costs went way down - I now fillup at half a tank, about once a month or two, instead of a full tank every week, since I do not commute.

Trying to cut way back on retail spending in order to make ends meet without depleting my IRAs - the end goal to leave some $ for my daughter and to have a reserve for myself if/when my health gets really bad and I need to spend $$$$ for healthcare.

"Experts" are saying we are having a "soft landing", which would be good. We'll see. So far the predictions of a recession (of any sort) don't seem to have come true - IMO.

I am still majorly invested in ETFs in my regular IRA which is about 85% of my IRAs. I move $ from my regular IRA (85/15 ETFs/Bonds) to my Roth several times a year - the Roth is 70/30 ETFs/Bonds. I think in my next annual review I will make my Roth more conservative. I have about 3-4 years before I have to make RMDs.

 

[Nosferatu]

The solar eclipse and bitcoin are going to save the world.

 

[The Heretic]

The most likely event is a recession with at least some inflation. In that event, cash isn't losing much value, and it gives the purchaser and edge in negotiations, especially when the seller is in distress. Good deals happen often during recessions, and people sometimes let loose of desirable items that they would otherwise never sell.

In prep for such an event, or income disruption, or unexpected expenses, etc. - it is best to be as debt free as possible and to have cash reserves.

I have been able to take advantage of some pretty good deals because the seller did not follow this principle and had to sell an item(s) to be able to pay for some bill.

 

[Bacchus]

There is no way we can print money at this pace forever.

Socialism isn't sustainable.

 

[Alexx1401]

Socialism isn't sustainable.

Never has EVER worked but, people keep trying it again. Kind of sad and funny that humans will sign up for it over and over again.