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Further declines in many major US housing markets

Discussion in 'Preparedness & Survival' started by ATCclears, Apr 26, 2012.

  1. ATCclears

    ATCclears Seattle area, WA Well-Known Member

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  2. Burt Gummer

    Burt Gummer Portland Completely Out of Ammo

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    You don't have to be an economist. If houses can't sell when the interest rate for a mortgage is 4%, just think when it is 14%. Not too far off. The too big to fails are propping up housing. It has a long crash ahead.

    One of the worst investments a person could make right now is buying a home.
     
  3. nwwoodsman

    nwwoodsman Vernonia Bronze Supporter Bronze Supporter 2015 Volunteer

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    Thanks for sharing this article. What really boggles my mind is that people are calling this "news" when it should be called "bubblegum you should have known was coming a long time ago"
     
  4. knuckle Head

    knuckle Head southeast Well-Known Member

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  5. Gunner3456

    Gunner3456 Salem Well-Known Member

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    Obviously the overall economy would stall any recovery. If people have a job, they may be afraid of losing it. Who'd bite off a 30 year mortgage in this economy?

    Then there's the foreclosure inventory which will keep on coming for several more years. A lot of the price data reflects short sales and outright lower prices on lender foreclosures. Homeowners have to try to compete with that to sell, and it will be a long time before that is over.

    IF the economy improves it will still take years. If it doesn't...
     
  6. knuckle Head

    knuckle Head southeast Well-Known Member

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  7. Gunner3456

    Gunner3456 Salem Well-Known Member

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    And this is government interference in the economy at its worst. They decide to try to rescue the housing market by making it easier to get financing - again. People bought homes the past couple of years with low downs, and now the prices still dropped and you have a new big bunch of people who are under water on mortgages. Where do we get these geniuses?

    Until the housing market is allowed to find a true market bottom with no interference, it won't recover. Artificial props are just that. Anyone who bought a home in the past two years needs a lesson in history.

    "Never try to catch a falling knife."
     
  8. knuckle Head

    knuckle Head southeast Well-Known Member

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    I know a few people who bought houses the last few years from foreclosures, each one paid less than what the market had rated them at, at the time of purchase. But the value of the houses has dropped, to where their mortgages are just slightly and mean just slightly below what the market has dropped to.

    Each one of the four (yeah i did not mention that earlier, four diiferent people) has said they do not know now if they did the right thing, they believe it is going to continue drop for at least another 2 - 3 years, and these are 27 -32 years old couples, with decent jobs at least at the moment, and they are asking when is this all going to end.

    Not one of them has a positive outlook towards the next 3 - 5 years they are just hoping they ride it out until things change, whenever that is.
     
    Gunner3456 and (deleted member) like this.
  9. Gunner3456

    Gunner3456 Salem Well-Known Member

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    And, what if people like Peter Schiff are right? What if what we thought was the crash of 2008 was just the warning tremor? What if the real crash is ahead?

    We are in debt $17 tril. States, counties and municipalities are under another $3 tril. That's $20 tril. No biggie. That's only $200,000 for each taxpayer. Only $400,000 for a working couple.

    Only about 47% of all workers pay any income taxes. Some get an "earned" income credit.

    But wait. It gets better. People owe about an aggregate of $13 tril on mortgages and about $4 tril on credit cards and consumer loans like cars and appliances. That's another $17 tril.

    Every baby born in the US today is born $200,000 in debt for the federal debt, assuming it works for a living some day.

    And the interest is building on all of this. The US government pays about $400 bil a year in interest, but T-Bills are historically low. What if the rate rose to a historically reasonable number like 6%?

    I'll tell you what. It would take more money to pay the interest on our debt than we take in, in taxes each year. There would be nothing left to pay anything.

    But wait. It gets better. All of the money ever paid into Social Security and Medicare has been robbed and spent in the general fund and isn't counted as debt. We still owe it. The IOU's are there.

    That pushes our national debt to over $100 tril, or $1 million dollars for every taxpayer. No biggie. That's just $2 million for every working couple. That's just the federal debt. That's not personal debt.

    Have a nice day and don't forget:

    "Never try to catch a falling knife."
     
  10. ATCclears

    ATCclears Seattle area, WA Well-Known Member

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  11. Gunner3456

    Gunner3456 Salem Well-Known Member

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  12. RVTECH

    RVTECH LaPine Well-Known Member

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    A mortgage broker I spoke to the other day (while working on a re-fi) told me some interesting stuff about the housing market. Notably he mentioned 75% of the foreclosed houses have not made it to the market yet and he believes the housing market has not even come close to 'bottoming out' yet.
     
  13. ATCclears

    ATCclears Seattle area, WA Well-Known Member

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    Yes, see the article I recently posted at the start/top of this thread:
    http://www.northwestfirearms.com/pr...9-millions-americans-squatting-own-homes.html

    Peter
     
  14. errackeleo

    errackeleo None Member

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    I bought a house 2 years ago because I need a place to live, I want to pay it off someday, and I don't like landlords telling me I can't work on my car in the garage. I am not trying to make a quick buck. It's a long term investment. So if I find myself in a position where I foreclose...so what. I guess I'll be in a similar position to a large number of others who have lost their homes in the last 5 years.
     
  15. Gunner3456

    Gunner3456 Salem Well-Known Member

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    Don't forget. In Oregon, a lender can sue a borrower for a deficiency judgment if the sale of the home doesn't satisfy the balance of the loan.

    Some people are finding this out the hard way. They and maybe their spouse have good jobs and some assets, but they are simply unwilling to continue to pay on a home that's way under water. They stop making payments, get foreclosed, and then find they get a judgment against them for some huge amount and then they are looking at bankruptcy and liquidating all of their savings, or a combination.

    I think that may happen to my prior neighbor, and if anyone deserves it he does. He bought the home and acreage below us right at the top of the market. All of a sudden a couple of months ago the home was empty and there was a no trespassing sign posted by a lender. Now the home is for sale by the lender. This guy could afford the payments so I suspect he just wanted to walk on his obligation. I had no idea they were living there for quite a while and making no payments.

    He has a good business that I know is doing fine and I'll bet this is going to cost him the $200 grand or so anyway, and ruin his credit in the process.


    "Never try to catch a falling knife."