Possible Slow Down In Approval Times Post Jan 1st?

[kflo01]

Do you guys think there will be a slowdown in approval times after January 1st? Part of me feels that these fast approval times have a lot to do with the government wanting to get that $200.00 tax stamp fee while they can, so they are going to push as many through as possible. Then, once Jan 1st comes, they won't give a bubblegum, and it will go back to slow approvals and long wait times. I'm tempted to get a few items in now because of that. Thoughts?

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[Camelfilter]

Yup.

Plus the system will crash. A bunch.

Perhaps might be functioning reasonably by April. Or June.

 

[1775usmc]

If you have the funds. Buy now.

 

[deadeye]

Do you guys think there will be a slowdown in approval times after January 1st? Part of me feels that these fast approval times have a lot to do with the government wanting to get that $200.00 tax stamp fee while they can, so they are going to push as many through as possible. Then, once Jan 1st comes, they won't give a bubblegum, and it will go back to slow approvals and long wait times. I'm tempted to get a few items in now because of that. Thoughts?

I dont think if a slowdown happens it will be because they dont care, it'll be because of volume of applications. Lots of people put off getting things due to the extra $200 and if the Gov wanted money they would have raised that tax long ago. Besides there's a new sheriff in town at the ATF and I dont think a slowdown would be a good idea for job retention.

 

[kflo01]

If you have the funds. Buy now.

Glad i am not the only one that thinks this way.

 

[Buddy1211]

Thats one issue the other might be getting what you want, when eforms started coming back in less than a week there was a lot of popular stuff sold out and back ordered. Some stuff still can be harder to get than others. I think most people wether or not they're willing to admit it are on some kind of a budget I know I am but the $200 does seem to hurt more when it's for a $300 .22 silencer then a more expensive say rifle can. It still sucks but it just seems to sting a little less for some reason.

 

[wired]

Possible? Its going to screech to a grinding halt. Not only people buying new stuff but people transferring used silencers, and sbr's, dealer transferring personal items into inventory, dealers transferring inventory items into personal items, form 1 items, hell do 100 at a time. Its free. Its going to crash big time. Easy 50-100 times normal volume. The system wasn't built for it.

Im going to get slammed. Trying to get a few inventory items a week built.

 

[CountryGent]

I don't see how approval times aren't going to go way up soon.

And eForms? When 41F landed, thing positively came to pieces over the course of a week or so, before completely dying and being replaced with a static page saying they didn't know when/if it would be back. And that was largely just Trust filers trying to get ahead of the extra BS imposed by the ruling. Everyone and the uncle applying for free tax stamps? Good luck. (eForms, obviously, finally did come back, and better before. Or at least less garbage than the earlier version. So, could happen again.)

 

[NoMadMeHappy]

We are getting close. I have paid for four $0 tax stamp suppressors through The Silencer Shop. Be nice to get them in the safe then see where the market goes, cuz there are others I want.

 

[CountryGent]

I'm, largely, NFA-ed out at this point. But I'm still going to try eForms on 1/1/2026 if for no other reason than the giggles.

 

[ilikegunspdx]

Do you guys think there will be a slowdown in approval times after January 1st? Part of me feels that these fast approval times have a lot to do with the government wanting to get that $200.00 tax stamp fee while they can, so they are going to push as many through as possible. Then, once Jan 1st comes, they won't give a bubblegum, and it will go back to slow approvals and long wait times. I'm tempted to get a few items in now because of that. Thoughts?

IMO fast approvals are not from that at all. It's well documented. The American suppressor association negotiated a "fast track" for simple suppressor applications. ATF then expanded that to include trusts, then expanded it to include other NFA items. And that was before the legislature even suggested the tax stamp go to $0. So no way it is due to that.

Yes it will be slower but by how much we will see. It all depends on how fast the "fast track" system can process them. If they go from three days to three weeks that's still not that bad imo compared to how it used to be. If it goes to 6 months plus that woudl suck.

Only data point I can think of is 135,000 applications for brace rule in one month (in addition to regular NFA applications). Took about a month to turn around but that was long before the fast track system was created. My guess fwiw is after Jan. 1 it will take 3-5 weeks after submission for the "fast track" applications. After 6-7 months it will start getting closer to normal I think. Submission via eforms is most likely to be the real problem.

Also don't forget about the suppressor supply problem. .22 can be had for $149-$179 at the cheapest right now that I have seen. What will happen after Jan 1?

Whatever the next timeline for the legislature is they will probably raise it higher than $0. All just WAGS.

 

[Bolt_308]

I could see it going in a couple of waves- Jan 1 will be a huge crush of those that bought a can and held it to be processed for Jan 1. Then a crush of people registering SBRS. Im willing to bet things will mostly sell out for a while, or at least the most popular cans will go out of stock for a while, similar to what happened when approvals suddenly started coming back faster.

Then I think there will be a second wave, those like myself who are deciding to sit back and wait it out. I'll be content with what I have for now, see how everything plays out, and then maybe once things settle down start buying. However i am expecting that to be at least 6 months, maybe more.

I bought a couple cans in the last few months, and just spent the extra $200 to get them now. All came back in a couple of days, and I have been able to enjoy them for the last few months. Well worth it for me. I think if you are someone who doesnt have much patience, I would honestly buy now and just pay the $200. Maybe I will be worn though!! ;-)

 

[TS6524]

Plus the system will crash. A bunch.

FACT! System historically is so unstable. When the number of transactions F1 AND F4 is where it is hundreds of thousands, it ain't gonna pretty.

 

[genericPNWname]

Don't spend money you don't have. There will likely be some hiccups once the system goes back online Jan 1st as well as a surge in applications. I suspect the surge will be largely Form 1s, but thats just a hypothesis.

 

[Catbox]

I am in the hurry up and wait boat.
I don't have one now, so it won't hurt for me to wait to get one or more later.

 

[PiratePast40]

I'm wondering if the supply chain for raw materials is in good enough shape to support increased production of silencers. Additional tariffs are taking their toll and many companies simply don't have many popular suppressors in stock.

 

[wired]

Material is available. Machine shops can only run so fast.

 

[ilikegunspdx]

I'm wondering if the supply chain for raw materials is in good enough shape to support increased production of silencers. Additional tariffs are taking their toll and many companies simply don't have many popular suppressors in stock.

I think it depends on the suppressor. Took me 8 months to find a PTR vent 2 in stock anywhere in USA this year.

 

[NoMadMeHappy]

I have questions on multiple current $0 tax stamp orders with Silencer Shop and have not been able to get a call back or chat response in the last two business days.

Concerning...

 

[Nosferatu]

My last stamp took around 3 months back when everyone else were getting approvals in days.

I have a couple more cans to get and it takes as long as it takes.

Decades of NFA things have numbed me to wait times.