Jan 2025 SCOTUS 2A decisions/updates thread

[CamoDeafie]

Just getting a feeling that they're effectively dead

Since they're not on the Denied Cert list with dissents; I wonder if this means they're automatically dead (denied cert with no dissents?)

Based on what I could find, a minimum of 4 Justices need to agree to discuss the cases, in order to get either grant, gvr, or denied cert.... But if not even 1 Justices discusses,.it goes on the "dead list" and automatically denied cert?

Supreme Court Procedure

To help illustrate the terms and concepts you will often encounter in discussions of the Supreme Court, we have followed an imaginary Supreme Court case through the judicial process. Suppose that […]

www.scotusblog.com

 

[dhshred710]

Just getting a feeling that they're effectively dead

Since they're not on the Denied Cert list with dissents; I wonder if this means they're automatically dead (denied cert with no dissents?)

Based on what I could find, a minimum of 4 Justices need to agree to discuss the cases, in order to get either grant, gvr, or denied cert.... But if not even 1 Justices discusses,.it goes on the "dead list" and automatically denied cert?

Supreme Court Procedure

To help illustrate the terms and concepts you will often encounter in discussions of the Supreme Court, we have followed an imaginary Supreme Court case through the judicial process. Suppose that […]

www.scotusblog.com

SCOTUS can deny cert with no dissents, but it should say "petition denied" on the links @bcp posted if it were. Lots of random/weird reasons they'll reschedule and redistribute for conference; similar cases are in appellate courts, states have amended the laws to tweak legal arguments (even though the effect remains the same), personal issues/scheduling conflicts with one of the parties lawyers (and these cases include state AG offices). Ironically, Miller v US (1939) that challenged the NFA is an example of why scotus shouldn't hear a case without a party present ha.

The "dead list" is also real, I wouldn't view these cases on that list just yet since they've recently been redistributed for conference.

 

[ilikegunspdx]

New mark smith video on it is out. This one is worth watching imo if you are interested in all the ways this case could go now and he lists his % chance for each.

View: https://youtu.be/uUeC9l-ae1o?si=jy5S59m8pxsilXW1

 

[ilikegunspdx]

Here are Mark's percentage guesses. My gut feel is this will be relisted again and again as Mark said "until they figure out how to deal with it". He said in a previous video they relisted Bruen 13 times. So it seems to me they may do the same thing here.

So if I were a betting man, which I'm not, I would put my $ on relisting until it's eventually heard. Whenever that is, next term, term after that or whatever. I suppose if we were really lucky it could be this term. That's just my guess.

 

[ilikegunspdx]

Here are Mark's percentage guesses. My gut feel is this will be relisted again and again as Mark said "until they figure out how to deal with it". He said in a previous video they relisted Bruen 13 times. So it seems to me they may do the same thing here.

So if I were a betting man, which I'm not, I would put my $ on relisting until it's eventually heard. Whenever that is, next term, term after that or whatever. I suppose if we were really lucky it could be this term. That's just my guess.

View attachment 2028095

As predicted, it got relisted for conference Feb. 21, 2025. Mark Smith's guess for continual relisting was only 5% chance but I was thinking 70-80%. The reason is because the really big cases like bruen got relisted like 13 times. According to wa gun law YouTube guy he thinks it will be next years spring term when it will be heard (ie it will keep being related until then).

So probably July 2026 is when you Wa folks can buy "assault weapons" again, if everything falls out like it should.

View: https://youtu.be/Hdc_pWtWFgg?si=8mgAk3yVdt12FpJm

 

[CamoDeafie]

Search

www.supremecourt.gov

Snope V Brown, scheduled for conference of March 7th 2025 as of March 3rd 2025.

Docket for 24-131

www.supremecourt.gov

Also Ocean State Tactical v RI has been scheduled for conference on March 7th 2025 as well.

These delays are rather... Aggravating.

 

[ilikegunspdx]

Search

www.supremecourt.gov

Snope V Brown, scheduled for conference of March 7th 2025 as of March 3rd 2025.

Docket for 24-131

www.supremecourt.gov

Also Ocean State Tactical v RI has been scheduled for conference on March 7th 2025 as well.

These delays are rather... Aggravating.

I think it will be constantly like this until it's time to figure out what next year's cases will be. Not sure when that is, sept maybe? It's gonna be continuous relisting until then imo.