Poll: Are you preparing for hyperinflationary scenario?

[Longwalkhome]

Ouch

They fixed the tax rates by taxing what you consume rather than take it out of your wages where you see it. We are paying a higher tax rate today if you look at all the combined taxes.

 

[The Heretic]

They fixed the tax rates by taxing what you consume rather than take it out of your wages where you see it. We are paying a higher tax rate today if you look at all the combined taxes.

Maybe so. But I have held for some time that a flat sales tax in place of an income tax is more fair. Consumption is more closely related to government costs than income. Fire/police protection, national defense, infrastructure (roads, rails, shipping, etc.) and so on, are all more closely related to consumption than how much a person earns.

 

[Longwalkhome]

Maybe so. But I have held for some time that a flat sales tax in place of an income tax is more fair. Consumption is more closely related to government costs than income. Fire/police protection, national defense, infrastructure (roads, rails, shipping, etc.) and so on, are all more closely related to consumption than how much a person earns.

Tax rates are a huge part of inflation. When your property goes up in value so does your taxes, big win for government. They raise your property tax even though you had no real gain because you didn't sell to get the higher value.


Now that government is going for reset and destroying our money our taxes will still go up, plus inflation is a tax.

 

[Alexx1401]

It worked well - I bought low, sold a little bit high, and saved $ by not having to buy ammo when it was expensive.

Sure as hell has worked for me. It sounds like I am gloating when I hear others complaining.
I often have people I work with and shoot with gripe to me. I try to not "rub it in" but, some times I can't help mention. You laughed at me when you saw me ordering cases of this stuff years ago. I used to point out the "great deals" often to only see them shrug, or make excuses. I could have made BANK selling the stuff but, to me that was not the point. I LOVE to shoot. I could roll the stuff I shoot but, I also seem to be forever behind of the list of crap I want to get done. So I do not want to spend hours rolling if I do not have to. Not to mention if we keep doing what we are doing that ammo could become a VERY valuable trading commodity.

 

[Alexx1401]

Spend your money today, it's worth less tomorrow.
Study your history: from a tax and inflation talking point, we're not even close to "Carter" bad.
View attachment 1194864

Yet. That is the big YET. If we keep doing what we are doing, which I see no end too, we will see real pain. Many seem to forget this admin is very young. Look what they have managed to do is a VERY short time frame. Mid terms "may" throw a wrench in their plans but, I will not hold my breath. The one shoe to not drop yet is jobs. I well remember when Carter really screwed us having times when jobs were few and far between. We are FLOODING this country with people and so far many do not care. Wait till there are no jobs again and watch what happens.

 

[Longwalkhome]

As millions flood the country illegally we print up billions to feed and house them and leave Americans to go hungry. When the money turns worthless due to inflation then what will the 30 million illegals do?

 

[The Heretic]

Sure as hell has worked for me. It sounds like I am gloating when I hear others complaining.
I often have people I work with and shoot with gripe to me. I try to not "rub it in" but, some times I can't help mention. You laughed at me when you saw me ordering cases of this stuff years ago. I used to point out the "great deals" often to only see them shrug, or make excuses. I could have made BANK selling the stuff but, to me that was not the point. I LOVE to shoot. I could roll the stuff I shoot but, I also seem to be forever behind of the list of crap I want to get done. So I do not want to spend hours rolling if I do not have to. Not to mention if we keep doing what we are doing that ammo could become a VERY valuable trading commodity.

In the early part of the pandemic, before prices really started to skyrocket and ammo could still be had, I sold some in demand ammo - 7.62x51 in "body bags" in crates, some .45 Black Talon, and all my .50 BMG. Made some profit on each and turned around and spent the $ (and more), upgrading to expanding defensive ammo anywhere I felt the need to expand my stores. There were still deals to be had buying in bulk with no limits, for prices that were half what they eventually topped out at. I wish I had bought even more - the worst that could happen is that I could sell it for what I paid for it.

I have plenty of ammo in most of my calibers, but I am reluctant to shoot very much of it (no more than maybe 50 rounds a quarter), because I don't want to pay these inflated prices to replace it, and I don't want to use up more than a small amount of ammo until I can easily and affordably replace it.

 

[Longwalkhome]

Thing about the ammo market is prices will go down as demand falls due to inflation. Ammo will be cheap but folks won't have money to buy it

 

[P7M13]

How is debt reduction in any way preparation for hyperinflation? To the contrary, if one expects hyperinflation, doesn't it make more sense to pay off current debt in the future with much cheaper dollars?

Others have said it more succinctly than I ever could. You're smart, do the math.
The notion of keeping debt to pay it down with "dollars of lesser value" is pure folly. You still work to earn each and every one of those dollars -- unless you work as a congressman....

 

[American123]

Tax rates are a huge part of inflation. When your property goes up in value so does your taxes, big win for government. They raise your property tax even though you had no real gain because you didn't sell to get the higher value.


Now that government is going for reset and destroying our money our taxes will still go up, plus inflation is a tax.

Don't forget that if you don't pay that tax on the place where you life, the government will kill you for it. (After a series of events that began with a tax bill)

 

[arakboss]

In the early part of the pandemic, before prices really started to skyrocket and ammo could still be had, I sold some in demand ammo - 7.62x51 in "body bags" in crates, some .45 Black Talon, and all my .50 BMG. Made some profit on each and turned around and spent the $ (and more), upgrading to expanding defensive ammo anywhere I felt the need to expand my stores. There were still deals to be had buying in bulk with no limits, for prices that were half what they eventually topped out at. I wish I had bought even more - the worst that could happen is that I could sell it for what I paid for it.

I have plenty of ammo in most of my calibers, but I am reluctant to shoot very much of it (no more than maybe 50 rounds a quarter), because I don't want to pay these inflated prices to replace it, and I don't want to use up more than a small amount of ammo until I can easily and affordably replace it.

I sold ammo before and going into the pandemic fiasco, at what seems like rediculously cheap prices now. It was worth it to get debt paid off. But now I have debt again and ammo prices have not come down to pre-pandemic levels. Bad decisions on my part. If I had continued juggling debt to zero/low interest cards and sold ammo in middle of pandemic I would have been much better off. Doesn't do me any good crying about it now except to learn the inflation lesson from it.

 

[clownbuster]

As millions flood the country illegally we print up billions to feed and house them and leave Americans to go hungry. When the money turns worthless due to inflation then what will the 30 million illegals do?

We've been here before. I'm not trying to pick a fight, but people's memories are not great. That's all I'm stating.

 

[clownbuster]

Thing about the ammo market is prices will go down as demand falls due to inflation. Ammo will be cheap but folks won't have money to buy it

Some folks will.

 

[GWS]

Others have said it more succinctly than I ever could. You're smart, do the math.
The notion of keeping debt to pay it down with "dollars of lesser value" is pure folly. You still work to earn each and every one of those dollars -- unless you work as a congressman....

But assuming a fixed rate on the debt like a mortgage or a car loan, you could take your wheelbarrow full of Biden bucks to the bank and pay off those loans.

I wonder if it worked that way in Zimbabwe. Take the $50 million dollar bill that you were paid to mow someone's lawn down to the bank and say "Here's my mortgage loan payoff." The bank is screwed in a fun bit of role reversal but that house or car is now yours.

 

[Cavedweller]

The notion of keeping debt to pay it down with "dollars of lesser value" is pure folly. You still work to earn each and every one of those dollars -- unless you work as a congressman....

Please see my explanation in post #21. The question hinges on how one best uses one's current disposable income if the choice is between debt reduction or investment in a physical commodity. As I stated previously:

"Let's suppose that someone is carrying debt for whatever reason at the present time, and one anticipates hyperinflation in the future. Let's also suppose that that person has disposable income which they can use to either reduce debt or invest in a commodity whose price will increase in a hyperinflationary environment. Doesn't it make better economic sense to buy the commodity (ammunition for example) and sell it later a greatly inflated price, and use the proceeds to pay off the debt, the price of which has remained fixed, but the value of which has been greatly reduced?"

Also, if one's income is tied to the inflation rate (any form of government entitlement, for example) and the interest rate on one's debt is fixed at the until recently historically low levels, one might be better off paying the debt off later.

On the other hand, if you're a poor working slob with no disposable income (no insult intended), I agree with you.

 

[Cavedweller]

But assuming a fixed rate on the debt like a mortgage or a car loan, you could take your wheelbarrow full of Biden bucks to the bank and pay off those loans.

I wonder if it worked that way in Zimbabwe. Take the $50 million dollar bill that you were paid to mow someone's lawn down to the bank and say "Here's my mortgage loan payoff." The bank is screwed in a fun bit of role reversal but that house or car is now yours.

That's the concept I was trying to get at, bearing in mind that what we are experiencing now is not HYPERinflation, Not even close. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, the Weimar Republic - that was hyperinflation.

 

[American123]

Others have said it more succinctly than I ever could. You're smart, do the math.
The notion of keeping debt to pay it down with "dollars of lesser value" is pure folly. You still work to earn each and every one of those dollars -- unless you work as a congressman....

Fixed rate debt. $30,000 at 2% APR over a 6 year term. Total interest paid over life of loan. $1860.95

Imagine paying that off "right now" total savings is $1860.95 or about 6% of $30,000 over the life of the loan, or 1% each year across 6 years.

Compare that same 6 years to inflation and instead buying other commodity goods that will either appreciate in value or will increase in basic cost due to inflation over the years.
A rolling 3-5% inflation over 6 years is:

First year: $30,000 buys what $30,000 buys
Second year: $31,500 buys what $30,000 bought.
Third year: $33,750 buys what $30,000 bought
Fourth year. $35,625 buys what $30,000 bought.
Fifth year…
Sixth year…

So on one hand paying off fixed debt saves money across the life of the loan, but on the other hand those dollars will be worth less later compared to now and possibly buying other things now with their buying power now would be advantageous compared to saving $1860.95 across a span of 6 years. My pay is going to increase during those 6 years while my fixed payment will remain the same. Inflation will reduce the buying power of the dollars I am paid, but the same amount of dollars will still be due toward my payment, so in effect, I am paying my payment comparatively less money than I had been previously because those dollars have less buying power.

For example, the primers I bought in 2019 have appreciated in current value 300% because I would have to pay close to $100 for the same product I bought for $29.50 in 2019. It definitely can pencil out to carry debt in certain scenarios. 3 years later my car payment is still the same but my primers are triple the value.

 

[Cavedweller]

What should we be doing? Hoarding cash, to buy into the market when it bottoms out? Hoarding canned beans?

Hoarding cash in a hyperinflationary environment will only ensure that you have a supply of toilet paper.

That said, we are not anywhere near hyperinflation:

"Hyperinflation is a term to describe rapid, excessive, and out-of-control general price increases in an economy. While inflation is a measure of the pace of rising prices for goods and services, hyperinflation is rapidly rising inflation, typically measuring more than 50% per month."

What Is Hyperinflation? Causes, Effects, Examples, and How to Prepare

Hyperinflation describes rapid and out-of-control price increases in an economy. Learn the causes of hyperinflation and how it can impact everyday consumers.

www.investopedia.com

I believe Carter to be a decent human being ...

Not all that decent, really. He shot his aunt's cat because it walked through his yard. Then he left a note on her front porch which said words to this effect: "Sorry I had to shoot your cat but I told you to keep it at home." Don't remember the exact words - it's been years since I read his biography.

 

[VinnieBoomBah]

Not all that decent, really. He shot his aunt's cat because it walked through his yard. Then he left a note on her front porch which said words to this effect: "Sorry I had to shoot your cat but I told you to keep it at home." Don't remember the exact words - it's been years since I read his biography.

All the sources I could find agree this is the letter

5/13/90

To Sybil,

Lamentably, I killed your cat while trying just to sting it. It was crouched, as usual, under one of our bird feeders & I fired from some distance with bird shot. It may ease your grief somewhat to know that the cat was buried properly with a prayer & that I'll be glad to get you another of your choice.

I called & came by your house several times. We will be in the Dominican Republic until Thursday. I'll see you then.

Love, Jimmy

 

[Cavedweller]

All the sources I could find agree this is the letter

5/13/90

To Sybil,

Lamentably, I killed your cat while trying just to sting it. It was crouched, as usual, under one of our bird feeders & I fired from some distance with bird shot. It may ease your grief somewhat to know that the cat was buried properly with a prayer & that I'll be glad to get you another of your choice.

I called & came by your house several times. We will be in the Dominican Republic until Thursday. I'll see you then.

Love, Jimmy

Trying to sting it with what? "Sorry Sybil, all I had at time was a 12 gauge." LOL