A naturalist using math and statistics to predict the fall of the US

[P7M13]

A close friend sent me this link. It's an interesting read, although I disagree with the naturalist's assumptions.

The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse

A historian believes he has discovered iron laws that predict the rise and fall of societies. He has bad news.

www.theatlantic.com

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[po18guy]

He doesn't need math and statistics...

 

[monkeybutler]

Right, interesting read, but I don't think his approach is as novel as suggested, just more "dismal science."

 

[Xaevian]

21st century, and the human race still believes in this sh!t. This is the newest Nostro-dumba$$.

 

[American123]

Egypt, Rome, Greece, Persia and every Chinese Dynasty were the greatest and most advanced civilizations of their time compared to their peers. Each one of them fell apart. How people think we are immune from that today is just ignorance.

 

[Cavedweller]

The Atlantic: Of the elites, by the elites, for the elites.

 

[Provincial]

While this contained the usual Atlantic BS, if you read the article and look past the spin, there is some interesting information. Turchin has dug up some interesting data, and is extrapolating it into trends that he has decided are predictable. He has a "scientific elitist" bent. He thinks he has figured out human nature and seeks to perfect it. An academic who is also trying to bring math into the analysis of history seems more objective:

"I came from a natural-science background," Zhao told me, "and in a way I am sympathetic to Turchin. If you come to social science from natural sciences, you have a powerful way of looking at the world. But you may also make big mistakes."

Sometimes he seems to hit the mark:
"He opposes credential-oriented higher education, for example, which he says is a way of mass-producing elites without also mass-producing elite jobs for them to occupy. Architects of such policies, he told me, are "creating surplus elites, and some become counter-elites." A smarter approach would be to keep the elite numbers small, and the real wages of the general population on a constant rise." Well, Duh!

Interestingly, in the article there is no mention of the huge expansion of the "elite" class from the Tech Revolution, where Techno-nerds, and Social Justice Keyboard Warriors suddenly become powerful because they either fulfill the needs of the "Gilded Age 2.0" elites or simply do their bidding. The advent of computers and internet disrupted the traditional reproduction of elites and changed it from heredity to education/vocation/politics. It also contributed to leaving much of the middle class behind, while decimating the working class.

The article is an example of how detached the elites are from the concept of social responsibility. They are perfectly fine with assuaging their guilt about "people of color" by unleashing violence and crime on non-elites. In their world, elites are entitled to be indulged in just about all ways, while us "commoners" can "eat cake."